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Company Report: Sinotrans Shipping (00368 Company Report: Coolpad Group Limited (02369 HK) Ricky Lai 黎柏坚 公司报告：酷派集团有限公司 (02369 HK) +852 2509 2603 [email protected] 24 March 2014 国泰君安研究 Better Smartphone Business Landscape, “Buy” 更好的智能手机的业务前景，“买入” GTJA Research GTJA 2H13 results were lower than market expectations, attributable to lower Rating: Buy than expected 4G smartphone sales contributions and one-off expense of Maintained HKD136 million for the reconstruction project of the office building. 评级： 买入 (维持) Smartphone shipments to be boosted by stronger distribution channels. Coolpad formed a strategic alliance with Jingdong with RMB10 billion 目标价 procurement order for smartphone distribution which is expected to benefit 6-18M TP : HK$5.50 HK$4.40 from the recent acquisition of Jingodng platform by Tencent (00700 HK) to introduce Coolpad smartphones to Weixin platform. Share price 股价： HK$4.500 Strong smartphone pipeline to capture robust demand. Coolpad is launching 30 new 4G smartphone models with aggressive pricing strategy of Stock performance mostly lower than one thousand Yuan, which is expected to capture the 股价表现 strong market demand. 140.0 % of return Maintain the Company’s investment rating of “Buy” and revise upwards 120.0 the TP from HK$4.40 to HK$5.50. Due to robust smartphone shipments and 100.0 improving contributions from 4G smartphones, FY14-15 EPS is adjusted 80.0 upwards by 11.5%/24.7%. The new TP represents 17.1x FY14 PER, 13.1x 60.0 FY15 PER, 11.1x FY16 PER and 3.5x FY14 PBR. We maintain the 40.0 Company’s investment rating of “Buy” in light of the expanded distribution 20.0 channels and strong smartphone pipeline. 0.0 (20.0) ) 13 财年下半年业绩低于市场预期，这是由于低于预期的 4G 智能手机销售贡献及一次性的 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 136 百万港元费用以重建办公室大楼的项目。 HSI Index Coolpad 智能手机出货量将通过更强好的分销渠道而提升。酷派与京东成立战略联盟，签订人民币 (02369 HK 100 亿元人民币采购合同。预计酷派可在微信分销酷派智能手机，因腾讯控股(00700 HK) Change in Share Price 1 M 3 M 1 Y 刚收购京东股权。 股价变动 1 个月 3 个月 1 年 Abs. % 酷派集团 推出新款智能手机以吸纳强劲需求。酷派将推出 30 款新的 4G 智能手机，通过低于千元人 (3.6) (91.5) 100.9 绝对变动 % 民币的进取定价策略，预期可吸纳强劲需求。 Rel. % to HS index 0.6 99.0 104.0 相对恒指变动 % Avg. Share price(HK$) 维持公司的投资评级为“买入”及目标价从 4.40 港元上调至 5.50 港元。由于强大的智能手 4.9 4.0 3.2 平均股价（港元） 机出货量和提高的 4G 智能手机贡献，上调 14-15 财年每股盈利预测 11.5%/24.7%。新目 Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International 标价相当于 17.1 倍 14 财年市盈率、13.1 倍 15 财年市盈率、11.1 倍 16 财年市盈率及 3.5 Coolpad Group Ltd GroupCoolpad Ltd 倍 14 财年市净率。我们维持公司的投资评级为“买入”，是基于扩大的分销渠道和新款智能 手机的推出。 预期 13-15 财年的纯利将按年增长 185.2%/64.8%/54.7%。目标价相当于 156.1 倍 13 年市盈率、49.6 倍 14 年市盈率、41.6 倍 15 年市盈率、31.1 倍 13 年市净率及 12-15 财年 PEG 为 2.04。由于奇虎 360 产品的普及及优秀的网上平台排名，我们设定投资评级为 “收集”。 Year End Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS Change PER BPS PBR DPS Yield ROE 年结 收入 股东净利 每股净利 每股净利变动 市盈率 每股净资产 市净率 每股股息 股息率 净资产收益率 12/31 (HKD m) (HKD m) (HKD) (△%) (x) (HKD) (x) (HKD) (%) (%) 2012A 14,390 323 0.153 23.6 29.5 1.141 3.9 0.030 0.7 14.1 2013A 19,624 348 0.165 8.3 27.2 1.313 3.4 0.020 0.4 13.5 2014F 29,828 667 0.322 94.8 14.0 1.550 2.9 0.048 1.1 22.4 2015F 37,285 854 0.421 30.6 10.7 1.886 2.4 0.063 1.4 24.3 2016F 42,132 978 0.495 17.6 9.1 2.299 2.0 0.074 1.7 23.5 Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 2,126.2 Major shareholder 大股东 Guo Deying 39.4% Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 9,567.9 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 53.0 3 month average vol. 3 个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 35,593.2 FY14 Net gearing14 年净负债/股东资金 (%) Net cash 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52 周高/低 5.230/2.350 FY14 Est. NAV (HK$) FY14 每股估值（港元） 6.4 Source︰The Company, Guotai Junan International. Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 7 2H13 Result Analysis 2H13 results were lower than market and our expectations respectively, attributable to lower than expected 4G smartphone sales contributions and one-off expense of HKD136 million for the reconstruction project of the office building. Without taking into account a one-off expense of HKD136 million, net of tax, arising from the Company’s reconstruction plan, the net income in 2H13 would have improved by 56.8% instead of yoy decline of 21.4%. The 4G smartphone sales revenue 24 March 2014 in 2H13 showed a yoy decline of 82.0% due to the corporate restructuring of a major customer in the USA. Table-1: Coolpad’s 2H13 Income Statement HKD (Million) 2H13 2H12 YoY Comments Total Revenue 9,992 8,172 22.3% 4G smartphone sales declined because of the corporate restructuring of a -4G Smartphone Sales 221 1,230 (82.0%) major customer in the USA -3G Smartphone Sales 9,629 6,914 39.3% -Others 142 29 389.7% Cost of Revenue (8,716) (7,165) 21.6% Moderate increase due to economies of scale effect Gross Profit 1,276 1,007 26.7% Other Income 274 200 37.0% S&M Expenses (829) (615) 34.8% Administrative Expenses (377) (302) 24.8% Attributable to one-off expense of HKD136 million for reconstruction Other Expenses (159) (12.9) 1,132.6% project Net Income 136 173 (21.4%) Basic EPS 6.48 8.29 (21.8%) Gross Profit Margin (%) 12.8 12.3 0.5ppt GPM improved thanks to the moderate cost of revenue control ) Decline in NP margin resulted from the one-off reconstruction project Net Profit Margin (%) 1.4 2.1 (0.7ppt) expense Source: the Company. (02369 HK Policies stimulate smartphone demand in China. We think there are a number of factors in China supporting the demand 酷派集团 of smartphones, which include (1) the launch of MVNO; (2) proliferation of smartphone applications; (3) Broadband China strategy; (4) the grant of FDD-LTE licenses in 2014; (5) faster pace of 2G subscribers to 3G/4G migration; and (6) telecom operators’ higher handset subsidies strategies. The launch of Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNO) is expected to impose a stronger competition to the market due to more rivals, which in turn boost the demand for smartphones. Users are Coolpad Group Ltd GroupCoolpad Ltd shifting from the usage of SMS and voice services to instant messaging, which would support the demand of smartphones as feature phones do not support these applications. The grant of FDD-LTE would further stimulate the usage of 4G smartphones as telecom operators would launch plans to attract new customers. According to MIIT, there were still over 66% of the mobile subscribers are using the 3G network in Feb 2014. Stronger smartphone shipments in FY14. Coolpad’s smartphone shipments in FY13 were 32.6 million, up 52.1% yoy, which was in-line with our expectations. Coolpad ranked the third in China’s smartphone market share in 4Q13 with 11% thanks to stronger brand recognitions, close network relationship with telecom operators and well market positioning China Mobile (00941 HK) plans to raise the handset subsidies by 29.2% in FY14 reaching RMB34 billion. We think Coolpad could benefit from the strong connections with telecom operators. According to IDC, China’s smartphone shipments are expected to reach 450 million in 2014, representing a 25% yoy growth. We expected Coolpad’s smartphone shipments in FY14-16 would grow by 84.3%/37.4%/21.5%, respectively. Due to higher contributions from 4G smartphones, we revise upwards Coolpad’s FY14-15 smartphone ASP by 13.8%/38.1%, respectively. Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 7 Figure-1: Smartphone Market Share in China Figure-2: Coolpad’s Quarter Smartphone Shipments and YoY Growth Million Smartphone Shipments (LHS) YoY Growth (RHS) 9 8.8 150% Samsung 133.3% 19% 120% 8.4 Others 7.9 24 March 2014 40% 8 90% Lenovo 7.5 97.5% 13% 69.2% 60% 7 Coolpad 30% Apple 11% Huawei 29.3% 7% 10% 6 0% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 Source: IDC. Source: Gartner. Figure-3: Coolpad’s Smartphone ASP Estimations and Figure-4: Coolpad’s Smartphone Shipments YoY Growth Estimations and YoY Growth HKD Million Smartphone ASP (LHS) YoY Growth (RHS) Smartphone Shipments (LHS) YoY Growth (RHS) 800 0% 120 120% -1.9% 100.3 100 99.4% 100% 596.6 -4% 670.0 84.3% 600 -7.0% 82.5 494.0 80 80% 449.5 -8% 60.1 400 60 52.1% 60% -9.0% 418.0 -11.0% -12% 40 40% 32.6 200 ) -16% 21.4 37.4% 20 20% -17.2% 21.5% 0 -20% 0 0% (02369 HK 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International.. Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. 酷派集团 Robust 4G smartphone demand in FY14. The three major telecom operators in China have rolled out their TD-LTE 4G services after the grant of the TD-LTE 4G operating licenses from MIIT. Telecom operators’ pricing strategies for the 4G network are quite aggressive with the average 4G service plan much lower than that of 3G. The 4G service plan are expected to further decline in coming quarters due to stronger market competitions and the government’s plan to boost mobile GroupCoolpad Ltd broadband penetration rate with the launch of Broadband China strategy. The lower the 4G service fee is, the higher the demand for 4G smartphones would be thanks to lower entry barrier.
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