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CFA Institute Research Challenge Hosted by CFA Society Sydney the University of Sydney

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CFA Institute Research Challenge Hosted by CFA Society Sydney the University of Sydney CFA Institute Research Challenge Hosted by CFA Society Sydney The University of Sydney Sydney Airports Limited (SYD.ASX) A Story of Growth: The Sky Monopoly and its Future We initiate coverage on Sydney Airports Limited (SYD) with a BUY recommendation based on a 12-month price[ target of $6.61, a 10.2% upside from its last close of $6.00 on the 23rd of September 2015. While trading at historic highs and outperforming the market index, we believe there is further room to grow. CHINA TO REMAIN RESILIENT | Taming the Chinese ‘Bear’ We believe the market has been overly bearish on China’s growth prospects and expect the economy to achieve its growth target of 7%. While accounting for 14% of foreign passengers, in 1H15 China accounted for 60% of growth in foreign nationality passengers. We forecast international passenger growth trending towards 4.4% p.a. by 2017, considerably above 2.8% in the year to June 2015 and 3.4% to August 2015. China Tourism Boom: Despite cyclical headwinds, double-digit growth in retail sales and 28% increase in tourism expenditure points to improved consumer sentiment. Households with disposable incomes of above USD55,000 have tripled in the past five years, correlated with increased travel and less price-sensitivity. Expanding Capacity: China-Australia air services agreement triples weekly seat capacity from 22,500 to 67,000. Global Growth: Devaluation of the AUD against the RMB, USD and GBP over the last 18 months SYD:ASX BUY ensures inbound travel to Australia from other nations remains robust. GICS Sector: Industrials | Transport As the economic and tourism hub, accounting for 40% of international passengers to and from Australia, SYD will benefit from passenger growth, increasing core revenue segments. International passengers pay Target Price $6.61 higher aeronautical fees, and Chinese passengers have a higher propensity to spend on retail. Current Price: 23/09/2015 $6.00 Upside (%) 10.2% INVESTOR APPEAL | The Great Yield Obsession One month VWAP $5.78 We take the view that in the current low inflation environment interest rates will remain at historical low 52 week high $6.00 in the short to medium term. Demand for dividend yielding equities is expected to increase, with SYD a 52 week low $4.10 prime candidate for domestic and foreign investors. Market capitalisation ($b) 13.38 . Yield Expansion: Despite a modest dividend yield of 4.6%, SYD has significant dividend growth upside Shares (m) 2,229 of 9% CAGR over the next 4 years compared to similar Australian equities. Superior Risk Adjusted Returns: Relative to other Australian dividend yielding stocks, SYD is more attractive on a risk adjusted basis with a beta of only 0.57 compared to the industry average in Financials (0.99), REITs (0.79) and Utilities (0.68). Foreign Investor Appeal: The depreciation of the AUD this year is expected to generate additional interest for the stock in foreign investors who stand to receive an additional capital upside. Price History Rebased $7.0 BADGERYS CREEK | Accretive at Worst… Brilliant at Best Analysis indicates that SYD is currently trading below its intrinsic value and has been conducted without $6.0 consideration of a second airport. Towards the end of the year the Federal Government will deliver its $5.0 notice of intention regarding Western Sydney Airport (WSA), with SYD subsequently having four to nine months to respond. Uncertainties and complications over the consultation process has resulted in the $4.0 market neglecting the significant potential of a second airport, and we believe that the outcome of the negotiation can only provide further upside to the share price, reinforcing our BUY recommendation: $3.0 . Only an Upside: SYD will only develop the airport if the investment reaches its hurdle rate of return. $2.0 We forecast that the investment will have an IRR of 7.9% well above the company’s hurdle rate of 2012 2013 2014 2015 7.0%, which would lead to a further 1.5% increase in our target share price to $6.70. Low Hurdle: SYD’s hurdle rate of return is likely to be significantly lower than other interested parties. SYD ASX200 Rebased We believe that if SYD refused to develop the airport, other investors will be similarly deterred. Source: Bloomberg . No Competition: Even if WSA were developed by a third party, we anticipate that this would have a negligible impact on Kingsford Smith Airport’s (KSA) passenger growth and profitability. VALUATION | Key Financials and Ratios 1 ($) AUD FY14A FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E Revenue ($m) 1,157.4 1,224.9 1,386.5 1,474.0 1,557.2 1,639.7 1,718.0 1,799.9 EBITDA ($m) 948.3 998.3 1,083.0 1,157.2 1,228.7 1,300.5 1,369.4 1,441.9 Distributions ($m) 520.2 563.7 621.6 680.6 736.9 781.0 781.0 781.0 DPS ($) 23.5c 25.5c 27.8c 30.4c 32.9c 34.9c2 34.9c 34.9c EBITDA Margin 81.5% 81.5% 78.1% 78.5% 78.9% 79.3% 79.7% 80.1% Net Debt/EBITDA 7.2x 7.5x1 7.1x 6.9x 6.7x 6.5x 6.5x 6.4x 1 T3 transaction in FY15 results in a FY16 EBITDA margin decline due to its asset profile and a Net Debt/EBITDA increase attributable to financing costs. 2 Tax credits are forecast to be exhausted in FY19, leading to a marginal decreases in net operating receipts available for distribution. BUSINESS DESCRIPTION Revenue Contribution FY14 BUSINESS DESCRIPTION | Operations SYD operates KSA and its accompanying facilities and services. SYD develops and maintains the airport 7% infrastructure and leases terminal floor space to airlines and retail operators. All revenue streams are driven by both international and domestic passenger traffic. 12% Aeronautical Aeronautical services: SYD derives aeronautical revenues through a base charge to airlines for the use Retail 42% of terminal and airfield infrastructure and additional charges on a per passenger basis. Revenues in this Property & Car Rental segment (excluding security recovery) grew 4.9% in 2014 to $487m, which represents 42% of total 17% revenues. SYD currently operates three runways and three terminals (including the recently acquired T3). Parking & Ground Transport International and domestic revenue is split on a 63% to 37% basis, with international revenue per Other passenger ($24.11) triple domestic revenue per passenger ($7.25). An agreement has recently been reached with Board of Airline Representatives of Australia (BARA), representing c.90% of international 22% carriers, to increase charges annually by 3.8%. Source: Annual Report 2014 Aeronautical security recovery: SYD collects aeronautical security revenues from airlines which are entirely used to pay for security. This revenue is completely offset by the security costs. Historical EBITDA ($m) Retail: SYD generates revenues by two means in this segment, rental lease of retail outlets and licensing 1,200 of advertising rights across digital and static sights. FY14 retail revenues were derived from 184 retail 991.2 outlets and the licensing of advertising rights surrounding T1 and T2 terminals. Retail revenues increased 948.3 1,000 876.7 833.2 5.6% to $255m in 2014 accounting for 22% of group revenue. In February 2015 SYD executed a duty-free 781.1 800 re-tender with Heinemann that will run until August 2022. Duty free previously represented 55% of retail revenue and 13% of total revenue. Heinemann will operate six duty free locations with a focus on the 600 integration of retail opportunities throughout the entire airport. The T1 departure store recently opened 400 while the remaining five stores will be completed by mid-2016. Around 200 retailers further contribute to retail revenue, which are highly lucrative as there is no threat of customers shopping elsewhere and a 200 guaranteed dwell time. 0 Property and car rental: Revenue in this segment is comprised of rents from leases of car rental areas, FY11A FY12AFY13AFY14A FY15E buildings and other airport owned facilities. Property and car rental revenue for FY14 was $194m (up 3.6%) and was 17% of total revenues for the year. New tenancies were a key driver of growth for the period and Source: Annual Reports, SG Forecast occupancy rates remained high at 98%. Dividends per Share Parking and ground transport: Car parking and ground transport revenues consist of time-based 30.0c charges for 16,864 parking spaces and charges from taxis, busses and limousines collecting passengers. 25.5c Revenues in this segment increased by 5.7% to $140m in 2014, which saw the segment account for 12% 25.0c 22.5c 23.5c 21.0c 21.0c of group revenue. Segment revenue increased due to online product expansion which accounted for 20.0c approximately 29% of booking revenues in the segment. In addition, the segment also benefited from a 964 parking space capacity expansion in proximity to the domestic terminals of the airport. 15.0c CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY 10.0c A key commitment of SYD is to preserve the environment with an affirmative imitative plan dedicated to 5.0c reducing its impact on natural surroundings. In particular, SYD has focused on noise management, clean 0.0c air and promoting sustainability. At present, SYD accounts for less than 1% of Sydney’s total pollutant FY11A FY12AFY13AFY14AFY15E emissions while also monitoring the emissions of airlines and excessive engine usage. Continued Source: SG Forecast investment in infrastructure has also allowed SYD to accommodate quieter and more fuel efficient aircraft such as the Airbus A350. Despite operating exclusively within the bounds of its organisational competencies, SYD has a robust CSR policy which supports the broader Sustainable Sydney 2030 strategy.
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