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Are Qantas, Webjet, Corporate Travel, Sydney Airport, Star Entertainment Group and Flight Centre Good Buys?

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Are Qantas, Webjet, Corporate Travel, Sydney Airport, Star Entertainment Group and Flight Centre Good Buys? Thursday 12 November 2020 Are Qantas, Webjet, Corporate Travel, Sydney Airport, Star Entertainment Group and Flight Centre good buys? Tony Featherstone says it’s time to buy travel and tourism stocks. Overseas signs for tourism stocks are good. Stocks that benefit most from greater travel and a vaccine – the so-called “reopeners” – soared in the United States this week. They include casinos, airlines, hotel chains and cruise ships. In his article today, Tony Featherstone looks at 4 Australian travel-related stocks to watch. Sincerely, Peter Switzer Inside this Issue 02 Time to buy travel stocks Time to buy travel stocks by Tony Featherstone 06 Buy, Hold, Sell – What the Brokers Say 5 upgrades, 14 downgrades by Rudi Filapek-Vandyck 10 Which “HOT” travel stock would you choose? Which “HOT” travel stock would you choose? by Maureen Jordan Time to buy travel 12 Questions of the Week Questions of the Week stocks by Paul Rickard by Tony Featherstone 02 Important information: This content has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual. It does not constitute formal advice. For this reason, any individual should, before Switzer Super Report is published by Switzer Financial Group Pty Ltd AFSL No. 286 531 acting, consider the appropriateness of the information, having regard to the Level 4, 10 Spring Street, Sydney, NSW, 2000 individual's objectives, financial situation and needs and, if necessary, seek T: 1300 794 893 F: (02) 9222 1456 appropriate professional advice. Time to buy travel stocks by Tony Featherstone It’s time to buy travel and tourism stocks. With some The good news is this awful outlook has been Australian State borders reopening and promising factored into in the share prices of several vaccine news, travel stocks will outperform the share high-quality travel stocks. If anything, there’s too market next year. much pessimism. Yes, the sector is a long, long way from a full The reopening of the New South Wales/Victoria recovery. Australia’s international tourist and border at the end of November is great news. So, too, foreign-student markets will take years to reach Victoria’s decision last week to finally remove the previous heights. “ring of steel” and allow Melburnians to travel to the State’s regions, and vice versa. In other good news, Much could go wrong with COVID. Pfizer’s news this South Australia will soon decide whether to reopen its week on its trials results boosted markets, but its border with Victoria. vaccine still must be approved and distributed. How many people will refuse it? Even recalcitrant border states, such as Queensland and Western Australia, will have to reopen their Australia, almost COVID-free for now, faces the risk border by early December at the latest, to enable of new outbreaks as people mingle over summer. Christmas travel. It would take a brave State Premier Don’t discount the risks of outbreaks as we head to keep borders shut and families apart during the towards winter 2021. festive season. Then there’s an economy in recession, high A gradual reopening of international borders is unemployment and the end of government wage another plus. The “bubble” arrangement with New subsidies in the next five months. That’s when Zealand will slowly and steadily extend to other household belts will really tighten. countries. Expect inbound international travel to remain low and slow for most of 2021, before much Business travel, recovering faster than leisure travel, stronger growth in 2022. is challenged. Cost-cutting companies will favour Zoom meetings over costly business flights and Australians are itching to holiday and see loved ones short-stay hotel visits. interstate. Pent-up travel demand is at an all-time high, according to the American Society of Travel Consumer psyche is another issue. How many Advisors. Almost half of its survey respondents said people, particularly older Australians, will want to travel will be their first major purchase when the travel overseas with the same fervour? Or even fly pandemic ends. interstate if COVID lingers? For all the talk about high unemployment, Australians There’s a good reason why travel and tourism was have built up a huge savings buffer during COVID, the first sector to be smashed during COVID and will thanks in part to government support and spending be the last to recover. It’s more affected by the cutbacks. Those who normally holiday each year pandemic than any other industry. presumably have money saved for a new trip. Thursday 12 November 2020 02 For clarity, I’m not suggesting the travel sector will to recover strongly from this time next year thanks to recover quickly or that stocks in this sector will get huge pent-up travel demand. A persistently lower oil back to their previous highs anytime soon. price will be another tailwind for Qantas.” Prospective investors need to hold these stocks for at least three years and be prepared for bouts of high That view still holds. Qantas’s recovery is just volatility. starting. However, I do believe the underperformance of travel Chart 1: Qantas (QAN) stocks will reverse in the next six months. And that more capital will rotate from growth stocks, such as tech and resources, into better-value plays, such as banks and parts of the travel sector. Gains this weeks are just the start. From a charting perspective, key travel stocks that have traded sideways in accumulation phase since March are poised to break through price resistance and head Source: ASX higher. 2. Sydney Airport Holdings (SYD) Overseas signs for tourism stocks are good. Stocks that benefit most from greater travel and a vaccine – I’ve been a fan of Sydney Airport for years and have the so-called “reopeners” – soared in the United nominated it several times in this Report and on States this week. They include casinos, airlines, hotel Switzer TV programs and webinars. Leading airports chains and cruise ships. are fabulous monopoly assets and none locally are better than Sydney Airport, given that city’s tourism Here are four Australian travel-related stocks to market. watch: I nominated Sydney Airport and Auckland 1. Qantas Airways (QAN) International Airport (AIA) in this Report on April 22 in my column “Airport stocks destined to rise once Peter Switzer, founder of this Report, asked me in more”. August to nominate my top stock for the next 12 months. My answer: Qantas. Sydney Airport was $5.70 at the time and now trades at $6.75 after soaring gains this week. AIA has rallied It was a tough call at the time, with Victoria in a harsh from $5.46 to $7.31 and has further to run, albeit lockdown and COVID rampant overseas. But as gains will be slower from here. contrarian ideas go, Qantas was a beauty. The airline was $3.78 in late August and now trades at $5.19 AIA said at its recent annual meeting there had been after soaring 10% early this week. a larger-than-expected rebound in domestic air travel and car parking at its airport. The same will be true of I wrote to Peter in late August: “Global airlines are a Sydney Airport. basket case because of COVID-19. Australian airlines are no exception. Border closures, grounded fleets, I expect Sydney Airport to have record domestic Virgin’s demise and rebirth, massive job cuts at travel in FY22, assuming COVID is contained in Qantas… the list goes on. Australia. Then, for a muted recovery in international travel to pick up pace in FY23. “Fast forward 12 months and the aviation outlook will be improving. Granted, a recovery in international Either way, Sydney Airport is undervalued, though not flights will be protracted due to lingering COVID-19 excessively so after gains this week. problems overseas. But domestic travel will be poised Thursday 12 November 2020 03 Chart 2: Sydney Airport (SYD) machines and other gambling. Chart 3: The Star Entertainment Group (SGR) Source: ASX 3. The Star Entertainment Group (SGR) Source: ASX I’ve written favourably about the integrated resort 4. Flight Centre Travel Group (FLT) operator several times in this Report this year. Poker machines and other forms of gambling recovered The travel agency is a new addition to my ideas list faster than expected in markets such as New this year. I preferred Webjet (WBJ) to Flight Centre, Zealand. I expect that to be the case for The Star. nominating Webjet in May 2020 as a takeover target at $3.24. It now trades at $4.85. At its Annual General Meeting in late October, Star CEO Matt Bekier said trading performance from July Flight Centre has disappointed in the past two years. to October was “pleasing”. Domestic gaming After peaking at around $60 in mid-2018, the stock revenue was approximately three quarters of that at fell to $8.92 at the height of the share market sell-off the same period a year earlier – a good achievement in March 2020. given the pandemic. Flight Centre had many challenges before the The Star’s Queensland properties have traded pandemic. Its large bricks-and-mortar travel-agency strongly and the Sydney casino should improve as network was being disrupted by online rivals. Flight social-distancing restrictions in that city are eased. Centre’s transition to online travel retailing was well underway, but too many retail shopfronts was a Disarray at rival Crown Resorts, the subject of a headwind. high-profile NSW Government inquiry, could boost The Star’s Sydney casino. Counsel assisting the The pandemic will create three long-term benefits for NSW inquiry concluded that Crown is not a “suitable Flight Centre.
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