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Positive Moves Monday 3 December 2018 Positive moves Things could be about to change and we might have Trump, Jinping and Shorten to thank for it! In the Report today, I suggest that the promised franking credit changes and likelihood of a Labor Government means a lot of public companies sitting on a pile of franking credits could get on the line started by Rio and BHP to offer share buyback opportunities! And in our eleventh review for 2018, Paul Rickard looks at how our model income and model growth portfolios performed in November. In Buy, Hold, Sell – What the Brokers Say we look at 20 upgrades and 10 downgrades, with Aristocrat Leisure enjoying the largest positive adjustment to forecasts for the week. Sincerely, Peter Switzer Inside this Issue 02 Are things looking up? Looking up? by Peter Switzer 05 Portfolios outperform in a soft market Portfolios outperform by Paul Rickard 07 Buy, Hold, Sell - What the Brokers Say More upgrades than downgrades by Rudi Filapek-Vandyck Are things looking up? 10 Hot Stocks - BHP and Bluescope Two to like by Peter Switzer by Maureen Jordan 02 Important information: This content has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual. It does not constitute formal advice. For this reason, any individual should, before Switzer Super Report is published by Switzer Financial Group Pty Ltd AFSL No. 286 531 acting, consider the appropriateness of the information, having regard to the Level 4, 10 Spring Street, Sydney, NSW, 2000 individual's objectives, financial situation and needs and, if necessary, seek T: 1300 794 893 F: (02) 9222 1456 appropriate professional advice. Are things looking up? by Peter Switzer A subscriber emailed me and asked if I could explain The chart below shows the rot started in September why our stock market has done so badly for a but things got serious in October. decade. This question comes when things could be about to change and we might have Donald Trump, The S&P/SASX 200 Index Xi Jinping and Bill Shorten to thank for it! Let’s leave Bill’s positive role for stocks until later and start off looking at what positives came out of the G20 get together for the leaders of the world’s biggest economies. Source: au.finance.yahoo.com Obviously, the news out of Buenos Aries (Argentina) that the Presidents of the USA and China have Driving our market down were external issues, such agreed to call a truce for 90 days, ahead of as Trump trade war talk, Fed rate rise concerns, wide-ranging talks, is going to be well-received by the re-revaluation of US tech stocks, a China slowdown, markets. an oil price slump and other worries linked to Brexit, the EU and Italy and so on. Locally we’ve had house Clearly, this isn’t the best news possible but was price collapse hype, the Royal Commission beating always the most likely, positive scenario, with the up on the banks and other financial businesses, negative version looking like a blow up walkout affair which make up 30% of the S&P/ASX 200 index and from Donald’s and Xi’s dinner date after the G20 this happened in concert with lower commodity and meeting. energy prices, which were linked to global growth and demand not helped by trade war and OPEC turmoil In last Saturday’s Report, I pointed out the views of talk. Eleanor Creagh, Saxo Capital Markets strategist, who said: “I think the tone for trading heading into It has been a perfect storm of bad stuff to hurt stocks December will be heavily reliant on the outcome of but we could see circumstances soon change. And this weekend’s much anticipated dinner. The most the decision by Presidents Trump and Jinping to hose optimistic outcome we are hoping for is a tariff down the heat in the trade war could be a positive ceasefire and commitment to continue negotiations, circuit breaker. but even this could be misplaced optimism.” There has been some good news out of the EU That’s what she predicted and that’s what we got, regarding Italy and its budget blow up and we should so I reckon stock markets should respond positively keep our fingers crossed that on December 11, the to the news. I can’t imagine a full blown offsetting UK Parliament doesn’t create a Brexit bomb. But this market rebound to wipe out the memories of what has is one threat to stocks that still looks like a worry, with happened to stocks since the start of October but the Labor expected to vote down PM May’s exit deal. news out of Argentina should help stocks beat gravity. The importance of a bad Brexit vote to global stock markets isn’t clear but I really wish the Poms would Monday 03 December 2018 02 swallow their medicine and get on with it. Uncertainty the financial stocks could feel the heat from the hurts stock markets and this Brexit story has been Government’s and Bill’s plans to make our financial one great balls up that hasn’t helped stocks. businesses better corporate and consumer-friendly citizens. OPEC is due to meet in Vienna this week and hopes are rising that an oil supply cut will arrest the fall in However, it’s not all bad Bill news for stocks. The prices that always hits the US stock market promised franking credit changes and the likelihood negatively. “Oil prices bounced back late in the day of Labor becoming the Government means that a lot on Friday on reports that the OPEC committee had of public companies sitting on a pile of franking suggested a 1.3 million barrel per day cut from the credits could get on the line started by Rio and BHP October level,” said Fawad Razaqzada, market to offer share buyback opportunities. analyst at futures brokerage Forex.com. “The pressure has certainly been building as prices The likes of Woolworths and Caltex are often named continued to fall amid ongoing concerns over as operations with tax riches, which could easily be excessive supply and lower demand growth … If no disposed of to SMSF and other low-tax paying action is taken, oil prices could certainly drop further, Australians ahead of the May election. while a production cut should lead to a sizeable rebound for these severely oversold levels.” And this not only will give stock players money that they could easily put back into stocks, which could As you can see, the lay of the land for stocks coming help the market trend higher. Also, the very action of out of overseas is looking better in December than a buyback reduces the number of shares on the they did in September to November. And remember, market and leads to higher share prices, all things as the Fed chief, Jerome Powell pointed out, the US being equal. stock market doesn’t look too expensive now. WAM’s Geoff Wilson was quoted in the AFR arguing This chart of FANG star, Amazon, shows that the the case for companies to return tax credits to recent price falls have made these stocks a lot shareholders. “They belong to the owners and if cheaper. Labor is going to diminish their value, it’s incumbent on boards to distribute them.” Amazon down 25% September-November If the improving external threats to stocks going higher meets a run of buybacks, along with an Aussie economy that continues to show good growth potential, it doesn’t look too courageous to expect an overdue uptick for equity markets. Who would’ve thought Bill Shorten would have been an accessory to Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Source: au.finance.yahoo.com driving stocks higher? And as you can see, it has been rebounding since I guess he’s like an elf helping create a possible November 23, coinciding with some positive talk Santa Claus rally that could roll into the new year and about USA-China trade negotiations. be an offset for the negativity that is bound to persist until we see the Royal Commission recommendations And now for Bill Shorten and his potential positives to our bank share prices. for stocks. Ahead of the expected May election, the threat of Labor with changes to franking credits and On that subject, could the banks do a buyback play? tax refunds for SMSF retirees, negative gearing Probably not, as they might need to keep some reforms and a lower capital gains tax discount from ammo until they see what their punishment looks like. 50% to 25%, could all be negatives for stocks. And Monday 03 December 2018 03 PS: To my subscriber who’s wondering why our market “has done nothing in 10 years”, if you consider all the above and throw in the GFC, the important end of the mining boom to a revolving door of PMs in Canberra to our lack of FANG-like companies, you have a really good idea of why our stock market, as a whole, has had a shocker. Important: This content has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual. It does not constitute formal advice. Consider the appropriateness of the information in regard to your circumstances. Monday 03 December 2018 04 Portfolios outperform in a soft market by Paul Rickard A big slide on the final day of the month due to trade S&P/ASX 200 is currently 18.0%, and under tremors saw the share market finish in the red for this rule, our possible portfolio weighting is in November.
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