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Examining the Australian Equity Recovery Trade

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Examining the Australian Equity Recovery Trade Examining the Australian Equity Recovery Trade Our weekly view on Australian equities. 10 September 2020 Issued by Wilsons Advisory and Stockbroking Limited (Wilsons) ABN 68 010 529 665 - Australian Financial Services Licence No 238375, a participant of ASX Group and should be read in conjunction with the disclosures and disclaimer in this report. What if the World Got Better: Our COVID-19 Recovery Basket The Australian stock market has Exhibit 1: Australian recovery stocks versus the rest of the market risen considerably from its March 120 lows but has been marking time 110 for 3 months now. 100 90 80 Australia has a large proportion of 70 the market index (by both number of 60 stocks and market cap) that have been 50 negatively impacted by the COVID-19 40 induced recession. 30 20 To assess the market’s attitude to 10 0 recovery prospects we have constructed Jan 2020Feb 2020Mar 2020Apr 2020May 2020Jun 2020 Jul 2020Aug 2020 Sep 2020 a COVID-19 casualties–or more optimistically–a COVID-19 recovery ASX 100 ex Recovery Recovery Basket Source: Refinitiv, Wilsons basket that includes 24 impacted stocks across 7 sectors. Exhibit 2: Australian recovery stock performance YTD versus the rest of Constructing a the market ASX 200 Recovery Basket Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd Oil Search Ltd Confining our universe to large caps Challenger Ltd Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX100), we have screened on Woodside Petroleum Ltd year-to-date performance as well as Vicinity Centres consensus earnings revisions to isolate Scentre Group the stocks the market perceives to Worley Ltd be most impacted. We have made Star Entertainment Group Ltd additional adjustments for stocks that Mirvac Group Origin Energy Ltd have had stock-specific issues largely Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Ltd unrelated to COVID-19, to come up with GPT Group a 24 stock COVID-19 recovery basket. Alumina Ltd Our basket contains stocks exposed to Santos Ltd international travel, inbound tourism, Sydney Airport Holdings Pty Ltd banking, selected resources (mostly LendLease Group Westpac Banking Corp energy), real estate and transport National Australia Bank Ltd infrastructure. ANZ Banking Group Ltd Dexus As highlighted in exhibit 1, the Crown Resorts Ltd performance of this segment of the Aristocrat Leisure Ltd market is decidedly worse than the Atlas Arteria Group broader index performance. The -80% -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% renewed rise in uncertainty around the Source: Refinitiv, Wilsons domestic economy, triggered by the Victorian lockdowns, has weighed on With the performance of our recovery have been stocks perceived to be many of these exposed stocks in recent index clearly lagging the ASX200, it is immune from the COVID-19 economic months while investors have preferenced evident the market is not pricing in a and earnings downdraft. In contrast, the COVID-19 winners’ trade (most V-shaped recovery and is in a holding recovery plays, while well off their lows, obviously the tech sector). pattern, much like the economy. have been bouncing around in a range Market outperformers in recent months in recent months. 2 What Could Spark While a desire to be overweight quality The consensus has revised down is an important hallmark of our stock the earnings of COVID-19 casualties Renewed Interest in the selection, there are a number of across FY20, FY21, and FY22. Despite Recovery Trade? above-average quality businesses hit forecasting some recovery through the hard by COVID-19, and a number of next 2 years, FY22 estimates generally The announcement of an effective lower but still decent quality businesses look modest compared to pre-COVID-19 vaccine is the most obvious catalyst for offering significant valuation upside on a earnings levels. Multiples also generally renewed optimism around COVID-19 recovery scenario. Generally, those with look undemanding based on these impacted stocks. stressed balance sheets have been able FY22 estimates. to raise equity to bolster their position. While this is by no means a certainty, particularly on a short-term (3-6 month) Read more on Assessing our timeframe, with 7 vaccines in phase Exposure to a Cyclical Recovery. 3 trials we think the likelihood of positive news is reasonably good. The manufacturing and logistical roll-out Exhibit 3: Australian recovery stocks earnings revisions year-to-date of the vaccine, both domestically and globally, is a daunting prospect. As seen 105 in recent months, if we do receive good news on the effectiveness of one or more vaccines, the share market would almost 85 certainly be prepared to look forward 12-18 months to factor in improved 75 economic conditions. 65 While this is likely to be the biggest 55 potential swing factor in sentiment towards the recovery stocks, the easing 45 of restrictions in Victoria would be another positive catalyst. Victoria’s Feb 2020Apr 2020Jun 2020 roadmap for re-opening has been widely ASX 100 ex Recovery Recovery Basket Source: Refinitiv, Wilsons criticised by businesses and medical groups as being overly conservative in its assumptions, thresholds and timelines; Exhibit 4: Australian recovery stocks - FY22 EPS estimate versus FY19 however, the Victorian government has at least flagged an intention to respond to Flight Centre Travel Group Qantas Airways the data. If infection rates decline faster Oil Search than is currently modelled there is a Origin Energy chance re-opening will happen sooner. Sydney Airport Stapled Units Vicinity Centres The combination of a successful vaccine Woodside Petroleum and a re-opening scenario for Victoria Alumina before year-end would focus the market Star Entertainment Group back on recovery trades in our view. Challenger Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Scentre Group Unit What’s Supporting the ANZ Banking Group Ltd Valuation Appeal in Westpac Banking Corp Crown Resorts Recovery Trades? Santos Mirvac Group Stapled Units While we are dealing with a range of National Australia Bank uncertainties in relation to the path of Dexus Stapled Units the virus, its treatment and the impact GPT Group Stapled Units Aristocrat Leisure on the economy, we believe there is LendLease Group Stapled Units significant potential valuation appeal Worley in recovery trades. Atlas Arteria Stapled Units -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% Source: Refinitiv, Wilsons 3 What the New Normal While the recovery is unlikely to be holding both global and domestically perfectly even, conditions are likely to exposed plays across the range of Will Look Like? improve substantially from where we are impacted sectors (we have identified today. Earnings recovery profiles look 7 recovery sectors as highlighted in Aside from debates around the conservative on average and valuations exhibit 1). With valuations stretched in re-opening of the economy and the likely generally look undemanding. “safe” areas of the market, we believe a success of vaccine candidates, there are spread of recovery trades is a worthwhile still substantial questions around what We think a diversified approach to the consideration to supplement already the “new normal” will look like. recovery trade is wise. This would suggest well-diversified portfolios. Exhibit 5: Australian recovery stocks summary statistics Net Debt to 6 mth. EPS YTD Price Equity Raise EPS growth Company Name EBITDA revision (Average PE (FY21) PE (FY22) Change in CY2020 FY20-22 CAGR* (12 Mth FWD) FY20 and FY21) Energy Oil Search Ltd -54% Yes 2.90 -77% 26.7 20.2 124% Origin Energy Ltd -36% No 2.12 -28% 20.8 15.0 -23% Santos Ltd -33% No 1.38 -54% 15.9 12.4 35% Woodside Petroleum Ltd -45% No 1.01 -54% 19.8 16.8 28% Financials Australia and New Zealand -28% No N/A -32% 12.0 10.0 16% Banking Group Ltd Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Ltd -35% Yes N/A -25% 12.6 11.0 0% Challenger Ltd -50% Yes N/A -24% 10.2 8.9 -6% National Australia Bank Ltd -29% Yes N/A -34% 12.1 10.4 16% Westpac Banking Corp -30% No N/A -33% 11.7 10.1 31% Metals and Mining Alumina Ltd -33% No -5.41 -29% 17.9 13.0 25% Real Estate Dexus -27% No 5.42 -5% 14.5 13.9 2% GPT Group -34% No 6.30 -17% 12.5 11.9 11% LendLease Group -33% Yes 1.98 -71% 18.9 12.5 164% Mirvac Group -36% No 5.57 -13% 14.8 13.3 0% Scentre Group -42% No 8.65 -29% 10.9 10.5 15% Vicinity Centres -43% Yes 5.61 -32% 16.0 11.4 -9% Resource Services Worley Ltd -39% No 1.55 -23% 14.3 12.6 1% Tourism and Entertainment Aristocrat Leisure Ltd -18% No 0.90 -43% 24.2 18.0 47% Crown Resorts Ltd -25% No 1.42 -68% 126.5 19.8 43% Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd -69% Yes -13.75 -165% N/A 29.5 N/A Qantas Airways Ltd -45% Yes 3.11 -136% N/A 14.3 N/A Star Entertainment Group Ltd -37% No 3.24 -61% 31.5 17.0 32% Transport Infrastructure Atlas Arteria Group -17% Yes 13.16 -44% 17.5 15.6 67% Sydney Airport Holdings Pty Ltd -33% Yes 12.08 -124% 586.9 47.3 220% *DPS used for ALX and SYD Source: Refinitiv, Wilsons 4 Disclaimer and disclosures Recommendation structure and other definitions Definitions at www.wilsonsadvisory.com.au/disclosures. Disclaimer This document has been prepared by Wilsons Advisory and Stockbroking Limited (AFSL 238375, ABN 68 010 529 665) (“Wilsons”) and its authors without consultation with any third parties, nor is Wilsons authorised to provide any information or make any representation or warranty on behalf of such parties. Any opinions contained in this document are subject to change and do not necessarily reflect the views of Wilsons.
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