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Mashreq Bank mashreq Fixed Income Trading Daily Market Update Sunday, January 24, 2016 Market Update US, GCC see no future for Syria if Assad stays The US and six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council said they see no future for Syria if President Bashar al-Assad remains in power as he is a “magnet" for terror in the region. "None of us are under any illusions that obstacles still exist for reaching peace in Syria," US Secretary of State John Kerry told reporters in Riyadh on Saturday after meeting foreign affairs ministers from GCC countries including Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. “War in Syria cannot end because he is the magnet that attracts the violent terrorism and jihadis who will continue to come as long as his supporters continue to say he’s part of the future.” Talks between the Syrian government and opposition leaders scheduled for January 25 have been postponed for “a few days,” Saudi-owned al-Hayat reported, citing an e-mail from United Nations Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura. The delay may enable a “better start” to the talks, which are aimed at ending Syria’s five-year civil war, the London-based newspaper quoted De Mistura as saying. The US, Russia and other nations have agreed on a timetable to form a transitional government in Syria within six months and hold elections within a year and a half. Russia has made progress in weakening US opposition to Assad standing for re-election, according to Russian and Western diplomats. While the US still says Assad can’t lead Syria over the long-term, the Obama administration has backed away from insisting that he go at the start of a transition process. John Kerry and Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov “confirmed the support of efforts of United Nations Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura to organize Geneva talks next week between representatives of the Syrian govt and opposition groups aiming at political settlement,” after speaking on the phone January 23, according to a statement on the website of Russia’s Foreign Affairs Ministry. The two also discussed respecting the right of Syrian people to define the future of their country. (Bloomberg) ECB leaves rates unchanged as oil threatens inflation outlook The European Central Bank left its key interest rates unchanged as investors wait for President Mario Draghi to explain how officials intend to respond to a slump in oil prices that’s depressing euro-area inflation. The 25-member Governing Council, meeting in Frankfurt on Thursday, kept the main refinancing rate at 0.05%, the deposit rate at minus 0.3% and the marginal rate at 0.3%. None of the economists in a Bloomberg survey predicted any rate changes. Mario Draghi said at a news conference in Frankfurt that ECB policy measures were working and believes rates will stay at present or lower level for some time. He said that economic developments and credit have improved, however downside risks have increased again amid heightened uncertainties about emerging market growth prospects. He said that euro area inflation dynamics also continued to be weaker than expected and it would therefore be necessary to review and possibly reconsider our monetary policy stance at our next meeting in March. (Bloomberg) Saudi and UAE PMI decline showing pressure on non-hydro carbons sector The Saudi monthly Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), a proxy for growth in the Saudi's non-oil sector, fell to 54.4 in December 2015 from 56.3 in November 2015 and recorded the weakest improvement in business conditions since the survey began in 2009. The non-oil sector in Saudi Arabia was affected by slower expansion in output and new orders as well as weak employment. Staffing levels last month stagnated, with the majority of respondents anticipating no change in employment. Similarly in the UAE, the PMI dropped to a 40-month low of 53.3 in December 2015 from 54.5 in November. Slower growth in new work weighed on the sector, with the pace of expansion the weakest since August 2011. Output, employment and input buying also eased as firms competed to gain clients. Despite the slowdown, the non-hydrocarbon sector is an area to focus on. As oil remains near USD30 per barrel and with liquidity conditions getting tightened in GCC economies, banks will continue to focus on the contracting sector as it will be an enabler for non-hydrocarbon diversification. The sector has its own problems with bank facing significant challenges, as payments are released to contractors beyond the agreed time, even against consultant certified invoices. This, in turn, affects payment to sub-contractors and impacts project profitability. There is also a reluctance to assign proceeds or give irrevocable assignment letters to financing banks. (Khaleej Times) China, Iran agree to expand trade to USD600 billion in a decade China and Iran mapped out a wide-ranging 25-year plan to broaden relations and expand trade during the first visit by a Chinese leader to the Islamic republic in 14 years. President Xi Jinping met with his counterpart Hassan Rouhani on Saturday, a week after the lifting of international sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program. The Chinese leader is the first head of state of the six-country bloc that negotiated the historic deal to visit Iran. Rouhani said the meeting marked "the beginning of an important era" in Iran-China relations, the official Islamic Republic News Agency reported. The visit was the first by a Chinese president in 14 years, official Iranian media reported. "Today we discussed the strategic relationship between both countries, setting up a comprehensive 25-year plan and also promoting bilateral relations of up to USD600 billion over the next 10 years," Rouhani said. The two countries signed 17 documents and letters of intent, IRNA reported, including treaties on judicial, commercial and civil matters. Long-term contracts in the energy and mining sectors were also discussed, Rouhani said. Iran is seeking to attract USD50 billion annually in foreign investment for the country’s ailing USD400 billion economy. China is Iran’s biggest trade partner, purchasing oil from Iran while sanctions over the country’s nuclear program blocked US and European competitors from the market. Trade between the two countries stood at some USD52 billion in 2014, before the plunge in oil prices. (Bloomberg) Dubai property prices, rents forecast to soften further in 2016 Average residential property prices fell 10% during 2015 and are set to drop further this year, according to a new report by consultancy firm Deloitte. Its annual Real Estate Predictions Report for Dubai also said that while published pipeline forecasts estimate that some 40,000 units will be delivered in 2016, Deloitte suggested that a more realistic number will be about 10,000 units. The report said that in 2016, average residential prices will decrease further, "reflecting a transition to a more mature market". It added that although there may be a softening in residential rental prices in some submarkets, this softening won't be to the same degree of recent declines in residential sales prices. "Over the past 13 years Dubai has experienced development on a scale and to a standard like no other real estate market globally. Along with other regional and international markets it has suffered the effects of the global financial crisis," said Robin Williamson, managing director, Deloitte Corporate Finance Limited. "Today, it is now maturing and feeling the effects of various market drivers whilst demonstrating strong resilience in certain sectors." He added: "Despite the decline in average residential sales prices in Dubai during 2015, price growth over the last four years reflects a compound annual growth rate of 11.6%, which outperforms other leading global cities such as London, Paris and Singapore." Deloitte also said office rental growth in Dubai during 2016 will be slow in some submarkets as a result of supply growth and the power of negotiation will, in general, shift from landlords to tenants. "There will be a trend towards more mixed use office led developments and a greater allocation of space to amenities, which will enable schemes to differentiate against competition as well as a strategy for developers to diversify risk and generate more robust cash flows," Deloitte said. It added that given the shortage of high quality office space in Dubai, some companies will be more amenable to leasing additional space than is required at present in order to accommodate future expansion, with a view to subletting surplus space in the short term. (Arabian Business) OPEC splits show at Davos as Nigeria debates with Saudi Arabia Nigeria’s oil minister, speaking on a panel at the World Economic Forum in the Swiss resort, said the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries needs to meet soon as crashing prices force the group to reconsider its current laissez-faire policy. Saudi Arabia, represented by the chairman of its national oil company, said the kingdom won’t reverse course unless non-OPEC nations play their part in production cuts. “If there are other producers willing to collaborate, Saudi Arabia will be willing also to collaborate,” said Khalid Al- Falih, chairman of Saudi Arabian Oil Co., also known as Saudi Aramco. “But Saudi Arabia will not accept the role of -- by itself -- balancing a structural imbalance that is happening today.” Page 1 mashreq Fixed Income Trading Daily Market Update Sunday, January 24, 2016 Officials from two non-OPEC nations speaking on the same panel -- Azerbaijan and Russia -- didn’t hold out much hope they’d be able to resolve the impasse soon. Nigeria’s petroleum resources minister of state, Emmanuel Kachikwu, made the case that the African nation and several fellow OPEC states want to meet before the group’s scheduled June 2 summit as the pain from $30 oil intensifies.
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