Review

Outlook

www.valustrat.com ValuStrat Price Index – VPI Dubai Residential Base: January 2014=100 ValuStrat Price Index – VPI Dubai Office Base: January 2015=100 All prices are quoted in UAE Dirhams unless otherwise stated Sales and Rent performance are measured on a quarterly basis while hotel performance are on yearly basis 2020 Review

FIRST QUARTER REVIEW 2020

VPI Residential VPI Residential VPI Office Capital Values Rental Values Capital Values 73.3 69.6 63.1

-10.1% -8.9% -14.7% Y-o-Y Y-o-Y Y-o-Y

Residential Ready Residential Ready Ticket Size Sales Volume 1.71m 3,491 AED Transactions

0.6% -0.3% Q-o-Q Q-o-Q

Residential Off-Plan Residential Off-Plan Ticket Size Sales Volume 1.45m 5,224 AED Transactions

-8.6% -26.3% Q-o-Q Q-o-Q

Office Sales Office Sales Office Ticket Size Volume Rent 0.92m 269 863 per sq m AED Transactions AED

-17.9% 11.2% -5.2% Q-o-Q Q-o-Q Q-o-Q Jan

COVID - 19 PANDEMIC

• The VPI – residential capital values for Dubai as of March 2020 stood at 73.3 points, dipping 0.9% since February, -10% annually. 1W • First confirmed case in the UAE recorded on 29th January

• The Dubai VPI for residential rental values during Q1 2020 stood at 69.6 points, • Suspension of all flights except cargo, halting operation of major public mass declining 1.7% quarterly and 8.9% annually. On an annual basis, apartment and transport ( and Tram) villa asking rents fell 9.4% and 8% respectively • Countrywide curfew and disinfection drive started • VPI for Dubai’s office capital values stood at 63.1 points, suggesting that average 2W capital values were 36.9% lower than the base period Q1 2015, 14.7% lower than • Temporary closure and suspension of public and private educational institutions Q1 2019 and 4.8% below the previous quarter with implementation of distance learning

• Conditional measures affecting non-essential retail and businesses including financial institutions

3W • Office staff attendance capped at 30% with the remaining workforce on remote work

PROJECT LAUNCHES • Provisional closure of all leisure, entertainment, cultural, and fitness establishments including places of worship • announced its first off-plan property for 2020, Olivz with 741 units located on Al Warsan • Prohibition, postponement or cancellation of all public events, gatherings, and 4W sporting activities • Emaar unveiled Burj Crown with 425 units in Downtown and Beach Isle with 396 units in Emaar Beachfront • UAE Central Bank announced AED 100 billion stimulus package

• Deyaar launched Noor district with 593 units in Midtown • Private sector launched various initiatives to help its partners and clients get through lockdown periods which included rental reliefs, waiver of some charges and fees and related packages • Sobha Realty revealed Vista Reserve with 330 units in MBR City Feb

• HH Sheik Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum launched Dubai Future District in • Reported job cuts and salary reductions due to slow down in business activities an area behind Museum of the Future most probably to tourism, retail, and interrelated sectors

• Correspondingly, decreasing expat population in both blue and white-collar workers increased downward pressures on the overall economy

5W • The pandemic began to show its impact during the second half of March as demand decreased due to the stay-at-home campaign supporting the nationwide disinfection program ECONOMY

• Early official economic growth outlook for 2020 was estimated at 3.2% 6W

• Overall GDP retreated 3.5% YoY down to AED 99.234 million, as per preliminary estimates from Dubai Statistics Centre TOURISM • Dubai Fateh, crude oil price stood at USD 33.75 during March, down 49% YoY • rescheduled for another year • UAE Central Bank reduced repo rate for short-term liquidity by 50 basis points 7W • Total international guests reached 3.84 million, down 16% YoY • Dubai’s external trade reached AED 323 billion, exports grew 2% YoY to AED 43 billion • placed as 4th most visited entertainment destination in in terms of average daily guests of 42,000 visitors, as per Global Attractions Attendance Report

8W

RESIDENTIAL

RETAIL • Secondary market cash sales volume up 30.4% YoY and off-plan cash sales Mar volume grew 18.2% YoY • launched virtual presence through Noon.com and Noon mobile • Apartment and villa asking rents fell 9.4% YoY and 8% annually application

• Loan-To-Value (LTV) ratios applicable on mortgage for first time home buyers adjusted 5%, as per UAE Central Bank 9W • March 2020 off-plan sales transaction volume plunged 42% when compared to February. Ready homes sales volume dipped 2% month on month HOTEL

• Top off-plan locations transacted during March were in , , Jumeirah Village and Residence Complex • ME Dubai with total 93 keys opened in The Opus by Omniyat, building designed 10W by world renowned architect Zaha Hadid • Most transacted ready homes were in , International City, Residence, Jumeirah Village and Dubai Hills Estate • Shangri-La Dubai hotel sold for AED 697.3 million

• Ciel Hotel was announced with 1,042 rooms and will hold the record as world’s tallest hotel upon completion

11W • Hotel occupancy dropped 15% in March 2020 when compared to the same period last year

OFFICE • An estimated 3,332 keys from 12 hotel projects finished construction

• Bank HQ in Downtown Dubai finished construction boasting an estimated 39,700 sq m (427,327 sq ft) GLA of Grade A office space 12W

• Additionally, 53,156 sq m (572,166 sq ft) workspace GLA was added SECOND QUARTER REVIEW 2020

VPI Residential VPI Residential VPI Office Capital Values Rental Values Capital Values 69.3 66.0 62.3

-11.6% -10.7% -10.1% Y-o-Y Y-o-Y Y-o-Y

Residential Ready Residential Ready Ticket Size Sales Volume 1.88m 1,516 AED Transactions

10.2% -56.6% Q-o-Q Q-o-Q

Residential Off-Plan Residential Off-Plan Ticket Size Sales Volume 1.41m 2,943 AED Transactions

-2.3% -43.7% Q-o-Q Q-o-Q

Office Sales Office Sales Office Ticket Size Volume Rent 0.87m 74 864 per sq m AED Transactions AED

-6.1% -72.5% 0.1% Q-o-Q Q-o-Q Q-o-Q Apr

COVID - 19 PANDEMIC

• The VPI – residential capital values for Dubai as of June 2020 stood at 69.3 points, declining 1.9% monthly, continuing the same accelerated rate of decline 1W • Movement restrictions due to the COVID-19 pandemic were eased in June, we witnessed during April and May. Annually, residential capital values declined allowing increased number of home sales in the city, showing transactional 12.5% improvement over the previous two months, however these figures were yet to indicate a full recovery when compared to pre-lockdown data • The residential rental VPI in Dubai stood at 66.0 points, declining 5.2% quarterly and 10.7% annually. Dubai’s net yields averaged 5.8%, for apartments at 5.9% • Moody’s Investor Service revealed Dubai is the most vulnerable business hub in and villas with 4.9% the Middle East exposed to impacts of the coronavirus pandemic 2W

• VPI for Dubai’s office capital values stood at 62.3 points, suggesting that average • initiated an AED 1.5 billion three-month economic capital values were 37.7% lower than Q1 2015, 10.1% lower than Q2 2019 and stimulus package to help minimise the impact of the pandemic and support vital 1.3% below the previous quarter business sectors

• Some hospitality establishments were converted into isolation and quarantine

3W facilities, or as accommodation for medical staff

• Relaxation of restrictions and procedures related to the health crisis commenced

ECONOMY • With expected economic slump due to lock-downs, interrelated sectors including tourism, aviation, hospitality could face headwinds 4W • Dubai Economy launched Price Monitor portal to track daily prices at Price.ded.ae • Sectors could possible perform better during this unprecedented times include healthcare, pharmaceuticals, e-commerce, and telecommunications • Bank of America estimated Dubai could face a 5.5% recession for this year

• Department of Finance issued a directive to reduce capital spending as an economic precautionary measure May

• made its final payment to its creditors amounting to more than AED 30 billion (USD 8.2 billion) MARKET SENTIMENT

• Foreign direct investments fell 74% YoY by end of H1 • Price drops, lower lending rates and sweetened LTV rules may have encouraged 5W some potential buyers to make a purchase.

• A survey by Dubai Chamber of Commerce revealed 70% of businesses expect to cease trading and operations within six months

RESIDENTIAL 6W

• Residential home sales transactions totaled 4,459, down 48.8% QoQ and 39.3% YoY LAWS & REGULATIONS • Cash sales volume was 97% higher than May. However, June’s off-plan homes sales declined 7% when compared to May 7W • New Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) data protection law enacted • Top off-plan locations transacted during June were in Jumeirah Village, Downtown Dubai, District One, and International City • UAE has released the full list of 122 categories for 100 per cent ownership in the mainland under the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Law • Most transacted ready homes were Dubai Residence Complex, Business Bay, Dubai Marina, and

8W

INFRASTRUCTURE

HOTEL Jun • announced 25% completion of infrastructure for its Phase 1 commercial development • Occupancy rate plunged to 23%, a record low as per STR Global • Roads and Transport Authority (RTA) and Dubai Municipality signed a service • Approximately 599 keys were added to total hotel rooms stock level agreement to enhance cooperation for geospatial infrastructure in Dubai

• RTA opened internal roads project in Sama , four two-lane flyovers in E 9W 311 and E 66 roads, and completed construction for 13 bridges heading to Dubai Hills Mall

TRANSPORTATION

• Dubai metro passengers dropped to 130,000 from average of 643,000 10W RETAIL • Total daily public transport users fell 70% to 400,000 from 1.3 million as per RTA • Emaar Malls achieved 39 million foot traffic and profits dropped 69% YoY during H1 2020

11W • Local malls advised to operate and maintain a 30% occupancy of common and gross leasable areas

TOURISM • Expected opening of The Dubai Mall Fountain Views expansion with 15,700 sq m (169,000 sq ft) GLA

• Dubai announced to start welcoming international visitors from 7th July subject 12W to strict health and travel guidelines THIRD QUARTER REVIEW 2020

VPI Residential VPI Residential VPI Office Capital Values Rental Values Capital Values 66.0 63.4 60.2

-13.8% -14.0% -10.9% Y-o-Y Y-o-Y Y-o-Y

Residential Ready Residential Ready Ticket Size Sales Volume 1.66m 3,937 AED Transactions

-11.8% 159.7% Q-o-Q Q-o-Q

Residential Off-Plan Residential Off-Plan Ticket Size Sales Volume 1.36m 2,791 AED Transactions

-3.6% -5.2% Q-o-Q Q-o-Q

Office Sales Office Sales Office Ticket Size Volume Rent 1.60m 225 828 per sq m AED Transactions AED

84.3% 204% -4.2% Q-o-Q Q-o-Q Q-o-Q Jul

COVID - 19 PANDEMIC

• The VPI – Residential Capital Values for Dubai as of September 2020 stood at 66 points, declining 1.5% monthly. This rate of decline continued to decelerate from 1W • Dubai launched “Dubai Assured” stamp for all hospitality, leisure, and retail 1.9% during the April-June movement restrictions. Annually, residential capital establishments to guarantee health and safety protocols are well-enforced values declined 14.5%. There is no doubt that residential capital values in many locations are very close to, or have already reached, record lows for the last • Dubai Government Excellence Programme in its latest survey showed 88% of decade residents were satisfied on the steps taken by the authorities to combat COVID-19 • The residential rental VPI in Dubai stood at 63.4 points, down 3.9% quarterly and 2W 14% annually. Dubai’s residential net yields averaged 6%, apartments at 6.2% • A third economic stimulus package worth AED 1.5 billion was announced by the and villas with 5.1% Dubai government to further aid against the business challenges brought by the heath crisis • VPI for Dubai’s office capital values stood at 60.2 points, 10.9% lower than the same period 2019 and 3.4% lower than Q2 2020 • Dubai launched “The Great Economic Reset Program” to focus on building a much more sustainable and resilient economy for the post-pandemic future

3W • announced 10% to 15% workforce reduction since the crisis began, which has severely impacted global air travel

RESIDENTIAL 4W

• September’s ready home transactions leaped 113.8%, forming a V-shaped LAWS & REGULATIONS recovery trend

• Top off-plan locations transacted during September were in Tilal Al Ghaf, Sobha • Abraham Accords signed marking historic normalisation agreement between Israel and the UAE, mediated by the United States of America Hartland, Harbour and Downtown Dubai Aug

• Most transacted ready homes were Town Square, Dubai Marina, Jumeirah • A law aimed to regulate family-owned businesses was issued Village, Business Bay and Dubai Sports City • Dubai authority relaxed laws regulating alcohol sales and possession

• A new law was issued related to Dubai Real Estate Institute (DREI) functions that

5W would help in the overall progression of the real estate sector

• An update on Emirati Citizenship Law was issued

ECONOMY

• S&P cautions Dubai economy could dwindle 11% and downgraded both Emaar 6W Properties and DIFC Investments ratings to BB+ TRANSPORTATION • DIFC and Dubai FDI signed MoU and work together to help boost the economy

• Dubai announced plans to tap global debt market after six years • 15km Dubai Metro extension was inaugurated

7W

RETAIL OFFICE 8W • Dragon Mart launched e-commerce platform • ICD Brookfield with more than 91,000 sq m (990,000 sq ft) of Garde A workspace welcomed its first tenant • Dubai Economy announced upsurge in issued e-commerce licenses at 83% YoY • Dubai Chamber announced construction work for its headquarters extension • Online trading hub EZDubai in facility reached operating level of reached 76%, estimated to add 4,000 sq m (43,056 sq ft) GLA of office and trade 20% Sep promotion offices • Emaar Malls achieved 91% occupancy and recorded 56 million footfall across its entire portfolio

9W INFRASTRUCTURE

HOTEL • RTA opened four-directional pedestrian bridges in Dubai Marina area and five bridges heading to • Sofitel Dubai Wafi opened with 498 keys 10W • Construction work for Phase 3 of Corridor well underway • Jumeirah Living Marina Gate opened 104 keys of hotel apartments

• 396 room Oaks Ibn Battuta Gate was unveiled

• Overall occupancy stood at 51%, down 30% YoY

11W TOURISM

• Dubai started to accept tourists; international guests totaled 416,700 since re-opening

12W • began to receive visitors FOURTH QUARTER REVIEW 2020

VPI Residential VPI Residential VPI Office Capital Values Rental Values Capital Values 65.3 62.1 59.4

-13.8% -12.3% -10.4% Y-o-Y Y-o-Y Y-o-Y

Residential Ready Residential Ready Ticket Size Sales Volume 2.17m 5,237 AED Transactions

30.6% 33.0% Q-o-Q Q-o-Q

Residential Off-Plan Residential Off-Plan Ticket Size Sales Volume 1.26m 3,348 AED Transactions

-7.6% 20.0% Q-o-Q Q-o-Q

Office Sales Office Sales Office Ticket Size Volume Rent 1.37m 278 834 per sq m AED Transactions AED

18.2% 23.6% 0.7% Q-o-Q Q-o-Q Q-o-Q COVID - 19 PANDEMIC Oct • The VPI – Residential Capital Values for Dubai as of December 2020 stood at a stable 65.3 points, showing an insignificant monthly decrease of only 0.1%, the • Amidst the ongoing health crisis, Cityscape Global 2020 become the first major lowest rate of decline in 3 years. Annually, the valuation-based index was 13.8% exhibition to return after temporary event suspensions were announced in lower than last year. On a citywide level, capital values of residential homes March. A new event format was introduced, Real Estate Summit and DLD approached stabilisation, as the downward trend gradually came to a standstill. launched a Real Estate Development Guide Stability and marginal improvements in capital values were observed in 90% of established villa communities as well as 63% of free-hold apartment areas. 1W • The UAE Ministry of Health and Prevention (MOHAP) cleared the Sinopharm vaccine for mass usage, a few days after the UK became first country to approve • The residential rental VPI in Dubai stood at 62.1 points, declining 2% quarterly a Pfizer – BioNtech developed vaccine and 12.3% annually. Dubai’s net yields averaged 6.1%, for apartments at 6.3% and villas with 5.1% • The disruptions caused by the pandemic resulted to revision of budget revenue to AED 44.2 billion, 30% less than initial forecast and projected expenditure was • VPI for Dubai’s office capital values stood at 59.4 points, suggesting that average also reduced to AED 56.2 billion 2W capital values were 10.4% lower than Q3 2019 and 1.3% below the previous quarter

3W ECONOMY

LAWS & REGULATIONS • IMF estimated Dubai’s economy would contract 9.8%, while S&P expects the emirates economy to shrink 11% • Commercial Companies Law amended to allow 100% foreign ownership • Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) could grow 35% as result of recent law • The UAE issued historic reforms to civil, criminal law including Islamic laws for 4W update, as per director general of Dubai Economy personal freedoms • Fitch Ratings has issued a rating of AA- with stable outlook for the country • A separate law was issued for the dissolution of Dubai Real Estate Institute, all outstanding responsibilities of which will be transferred to Dubai Land • The UAE Cabinet approved AED 58.3 billion federal budget for 2021 and will be Department (DLD) spent primarily on social and economic development

Nov • A new decree issued to form a special committee for unfinished and cancelled • Dubai Fateh, crude oil price stood at USD 42.58 during November, down 31% YoY property developments • Investment Corporation of Dubai announced to oversee operations of Meydan's • Government issued a new regulation to govern the city's burgeoning timeshare projects industry • The Dubai index .DFMGI rose 0.8% as Damac Properties DAMAC.DU jumped

5W 7.5% and EMAR.DU increased 1.4%, according to Nasdaq

• Dubai's population stood at 3.4 million in 2020 which grew 1.6% YoY, its lowest growth rate since 2016

RESIDENTIAL

6W • Emaar Properties announced to suspend launch of new projects as the pandemic exacerbated property slump TOURISM • With limited new project announcements, record low prices, and increased mortgage LTV, fourth quarter ready-to-move-in home sales transactions were • Dubai Safari Park re-opened to the public highest in eight years 7W

• 65% of December’s cash-based sales transactions volume was towards ready • Nakheel unveiled the world’s largest fountain at The Pointe homes

• Top off-plan locations transacted during December were in Jumeirah Village, Meydan City, Al Jaddaf and Dubai Science Park 8W • Most transacted ready homes were located in Dubai Marina, Jumeirah Village, Business Bay, Arjan and Green Commnity West OFFICE

• PwC Middle East inaugurated its new regional office measuring 16,371 sq m (176,216 sq ft) GLA in Emaar Square Dec

INFRASTRUCTURE

• Two highway extensions to E611 finished construction

9W RETAIL • 70% of infrastructure work for the Mohammed Bin Rashid Aerospace Hub (MBRAH) has been completed • Al Khawaneej Walk was opened and includes a 3,716 sq m (40,000 sq ft) Geant • AED 4.6 billion of roads and bridges projects were built in area Hypermarket

• RTA finished construction for Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed – Al Rebat roads • 26th edition of Dubai Shopping Festival started on 17th December intersection 10W

TRANSPORTATION HOTEL 11W

• RTA renamed five Dubai Metro stations • Rixos Dubai Hotel and Suites Jewel of the Creek was unveiled with 770 rooms

• RIU Dubai with 800 keys in Deira Islands was opened

• Rove La Mer Resort started to welcome guests 12W

• More than 6,000 keys were projected to complete by December, which were initially supposed to cater to holiday vacationers and EXPO tourists’ demand

• Budget hotel rates dropped below AED 200 per night, as per local hotel operator Outlook 2021

ECONOMY COVID - 19 PANDEMIC

• Dubai Economy estimated the city's GDP could grow 4% in 2021, on • S&P Global Ratings noted Dubai economy could see pre-COVID 19 foot of strong economic fundamentals levels of economic activity and recovery not until 2023

• Non-oil GDP is expected to grow 3.6%, as per the UAE Central Bank • Six COVID-19 vaccines could be available by spring 2021

• Expected boosts in trade and tourism sectors from the Abraham • Gradual lifting of social safety guidelines Accords • Dubai to reach its plan to inoculate 70% of the city's population using • Dubai government approved a budget worth AED 57.1 billion for fiscal Pfizer vaccine year 2021. This budget is expected to support the population growth, the benefits of hosting Expo 2020, continued support of infrastructure development and supporting the goals of the Dubai Plan 2021

RETAIL

• The estimated mall supply for 2021 stood at 203,218 sq m (2.2 million RESIDENTIAL PRICES AND RENTS sq ft) GLA

• Upcoming shopping centres: Deira Mall, Dubai Hills Mall, Avenues Mall • Subject to health crisis being resolved, the economy is expected to (Silicon Central), The Yard by Meraas improve and with Dubai Expo and the 50-year anniversary of the UAE, market sentiment is expected to pick up and could head towards • Establishing a strong e-commerce presence will remain as one of bottoming out during 2021 primary strategic move for major retailers including F&B consortiums • As developers put new projects on hold, rents and capital values in • Rentals in malls and shopping centres could continue to face established villa locations could stablise and perhaps witness downward pressure as retailers re-focus to digital trading gradual appreciation, apartments could follow suite towards the end of 2021

HOTEL OFFICE PRICES AND RENTS • Dubai is expected to receive 13,063 hotel keys in 2021

• Approximately 117,184 sq m (1.3 million sq ft) GLA of workspace is up • Upcoming hospitality establishments: Kempinski Business Bay, for delivery in 2021 Corinthia at Meydan Beach, Marriott , Rove City Walk, Centara Resort Deira Islands, Sky Bay Business Bay, to name a few • New government initiatives including visas for expatriate retirees and the expansion of the 10-year golden visa scheme to attract foreign • Gradual improvement for key performance indicators (occupancy, ADR, professionals to settle in the UAE are also expected to support the RevPAR) as global travel sentiment improve market • Hotels could re-direct marketing strategies to attract more local • The UAE also reformed its commercial companies' law and annulled vacationers in the short to medium term the requirement for some onshore companies to have an Emirati shareholder, which is expected to boost foreign direct investment in the country

• Office capital values and rents are expected to bottom out after reaching 10-year lows

• Official event duration starts on 1st October 2021 to 31st March 2022

• RTA estimated Route 2020 to handle 125,000 passengers per day with a capacity of 46,000 riders per hour TOURISM

• Upcoming attractions: Ain Dubai, EXPO 2020 Pavilions, Museum of the Future, Zombie Apocalypse Park

• Possible spike changes in tourist numbers mainly due to record low visitors count in the previous year Meet the Team

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About VPI

The ValuStrat Price Index for Dubai’s office capital values is a valuation-based index constructed to represent the quarterly price change experienced by typical office space within Dubai. The ValuStrat Price Index for Dubai’s residential capital values is a valuation-based index constructed to represent the monthly price change experienced by typical residential units within Dubai. The ValuStrat Price Index for Dubai’s residential rental values is constructed to represent the quarterly rental change experienced by typical residential units within Dubai. The VPI applies weighted averages using data samples representing more than 90% of all property types across the city’s freehold locations and is built by our expert RICS Registered Valuers.

Research Methodology Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of this document. New supply data covers 38 defined areas in Dubai including non-freehold areas. Only completed and under construction projects are included. The new supply data does not include announced projects, and projects in design phase. The new supply database does not take into account most private building projects. Prices are calculated from actual transactions that have been carefully cleansed to exclude duplicates, bulk sales and outdated transactions. Rental data is derived from a carefully cleansed database of listings that don’t include duplicates, potential errors and outliers. ValuStrat is the Middle East’s leading provider of Advisory, Valuation, Research, Due Diligence and Divestment services across a diverse range of industry sectors. We have offices in Dubai, London, Jeddah, Riyadh, Karachi and Doha, offering comprehensive professional advisory throughout the MENA region. ValuStrat is a Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) Regulated Firm and the first company headquartered in all of MENA and Asia to be accepted into the prestigious RICS Tech Affiliate program.

ValuStrat’s dedicated research department provides informed market commentary, bespoke research reports and Management Information Systems. Dubai Residential Market Report now available, a regular in-depth 100+ page subscription report containing citywide analysis of 26 freehold districts, including the ValuStrat Price Index, transaction volumes, service charges, price to rent ratios and net yields.

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The ValuStrat Price Index for Dubai’s office capital values is a valuation-based index constructed to represent the quarterly price change experienced by typical office space within Dubai. The ValuStrat Price Index for Dubai’s residential capital values is a valuation-based index constructed to represent the monthly price change experienced by typical residential units within Dubai. The ValuStrat Price Index for Dubai’sresidential rental values is constructed to represent the quarterly rental change experienced by typical residential units within Dubai. The VPI applies weighted averages using data samples representing more than 90% of all property types across the city’s freehold locations and is built by our expert RICS Registered Valuers.

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