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Sample of Cover Page to Be Used for All Assignments National Changhua University of Education College of Technology Department of Business Education Assignment for Course: 投資學 Submitted to: 陳信憲教授 95320002 鄭惇伊 Submitted by: [email protected] 95320008 林佩儀 [email protected] 95320027 黃馨玫 [email protected] Date of Submission: 2008/06/03 Title of Assignment: SONY CERTIFICATION OF AUTHORSHIP: I certify that I am the author of this paper and that any assistance I received in its preparation is fully acknowledged and disclosed in the paper. I have also cited any sources from which I used data, ideas or words, either quoted directly or paraphrased. I also certify that this paper was prepared by me specifically for this course. Student’s Signature: ___________________ ****************************************************** Instructor’s Grade on Assignment: Instructor’s Comments: 第 1 頁,共 17 頁 選擇分析 SONY 之因 SONY是日本電器大牌,我們的電視、手機、相機〃〃〃,幾乎都可看到SO NY的影子,而且SONY這品牌口碑好,覺得可以很放心的買他的產品。 SONY 簡介 1946 年索尼建立了, 在 WWII 之後的結尾。索尼開始作為一家小公司以 190,000 日元和大約 20 名雇員的資本。 創建者 Masaru Ibuka 說設定公司的目的是"建立強調自由和開放 mindedness 的精神, 通過技術, 對日本文化將貢獻的一家理想的工廠。" 象徵挑戰的索尼的 精神對"做在什麼之前未做," 公司繼續發布不計其數的"日本的第一" 和"世界的 第一" 產品。 索尼檔案陳列作早期工作在的產品, 索尼給了世界並且各種各樣的文件。我們希 望這些展覽將給訪客索尼的技巧的 Monozukuri 精神 感覺。 索尼編組主要集中於電子(譬如 AV/IT 產品&組分),遊戲(譬如 PlayStation), 娛 樂(譬如電影和音樂), 和金融服務(譬如保險和銀行業務) 區段。我們不僅代表大 範圍企業, 但我們保留全球性地獨特。我們的目標將充分地支持這獨特在進取地 執行我們的匯合戰略以便我們能繼續接觸和情感地激發我們的顧客。 資料來源:http://www.sony.net/ 產品資訊 ● 消費性電子產品 提供多種最新、最流行的 Sony 數位商品資訊,包括 Cyber-shot 數位相 機、Handycam 數位攝影機、NetMD、CD 隨身聽、個人音響、電視、投 影機、VAIO 筆記型電腦、週邊配備等,並提供線上購物服務。 第 2 頁,共 17 頁 ● 專業性電子產品 以 Sony 最尖端的專業技術為基礎,提供台灣廠商及消費者最優質的產品 及解決方案,以期增加工作效率,並帶動更多商機。 主要產品類別如下: (1)廣播電視專業設備/商業解決報告 (2)儲存媒體/電池 (3)電腦儲存設備/光碟燒錄機 (4)應用零組件 (5)化學相關產品 (6)自動生產設備 其他 SONY 集團產品及服務 (1) 台灣碩網網路娛樂股有限公司:提供 ADSL、網路內容及電子 商務等服務。 (2) 新力博德曼音樂:提供各類與音樂相關的影音產品之企 劃、製作與銷售。 (3) 新力電腦娛樂:行銷 PlayStationR 及 PlayStationR2 遊戲機及 軟體。 (4) 索尼愛立信:設計、研發、行銷最新的行動通訊 產品。 (5) AXN 及 Animax:24 小時放送動作影集、卡通、極限運動等生 活型態節目。 資料來源:http://www.sony.com.tw/Default.aspx 第 3 頁,共 17 頁 銷售地比率 產品比率 rest of world Japan 23% insurance&other 26% 11% Pictures 11% Games 11% Europe Electronics 25% U.S.A 67% 26% 資料來源:value line 我們依據老師提供的股票選擇指南 SSG 來試算 SONY 的未來發展情況。 根據 value line 的資料輸入(並預設我們期望的 Sales Growth Rate、EPS Growth Rate、P/E Ratio、Target 5-year Price Appreciation)後,我們可以發現到 2000、 2001、2005 年的數值較其他年份低。 為什麼會那麼的低呢? 2000、20001 年我們推測當時受到全球經濟衰退,網路 泡沫化的衝擊;2005 年,則是 sony 液晶事件、遊戲部門虧損的關係,2005 年 相關報導如下: 第 4 頁,共 17 頁 摔倒了就爬起來 索尼 32 液晶電視重裝上陣 索尼液晶事件,據說是索尼的電視軟體中存在一個錯誤,會導致電視累計 工作 1200 小時後會不能關機、不能正常開機等等問題。2 月 9 日當天 SONY 2005 年新款 最新報價 相關論壇中國的網站公佈了 5 款型號一共 17000 台左右的電視中存在了這個軟體設計錯誤,並全承諾上面解決問題,而在 賣場中的產品將全部收回。時隔一段時間後,賣場中終於再次出現了 SONY 液晶電視的身影,並且據瞭解,這批貨已經全部刷了新的軟體,所以看來 SONY 已經將這個問題徹體解決了。 資料來源:搜狐 http://digi.it.sohu.com/20060320/n242380154.shtml SONY 2005 年第 1 季遊戲部門虧損 59 億日圓 SONY 於 7 月 28 日發表了 2005 年第 1 季的業績,其中遊戲部門 SCE 的 虧損由去年同期的 29 億日圓擴大為 59 億日圓。 根據發表資料,2005 年第 1 季 SONY 遊戲部門營業額為 1728 億日圓, 比去年同期大幅成長了 64 %,但仍舊造成 59 億日圓的虧損。 硬體方面,由於去年 2004 底新型 PS2 與 PSP 的發售,而獲得相當的 成長。PS2 主機由於歐美地區的生產出貨量增加,總計達 353 萬台,是去 年 2004 同期的 5 倍之多,PSP 也有 209 萬台的出貨量,是去年 2004 同 期所無。 軟體方面,PS2 遊戲全球總出貨套數為 3500 萬套,比去年同期減少 8 %,其中北美與日本地區的銷售量下滑,歐洲方面則有所成長。不過由於 北美與日本地區增加了去年同期所沒有的 490 萬套 PSP 遊戲的出貨,因此 整體營收仍有所成長。目前 PSP 尚未於歐洲地區正式推出。 雖然軟硬體兩方皆有成長,但因為以廣告宣傳費為首的行銷費用與一 般管理費用的增加,以及針對將來事業所持續投入的研究開發費用,因而 使得虧損擴大為 59 億日圓。目前 SONY 遊戲部門主力研發的新產品為預 定 2006 年春季推出的 PS3 主機,另外 PSP 主機也將于下一季在歐洲地區 正式推出。 資料來源:北方網 http://tjgame.enorth.com.cn/system/2005/08/09/001089396.shtml 第 5 頁,共 17 頁 過去三年平均 sales growth rate 為 5.49%,過去五年平均 sales growth rate 為 5.01%,相互比較,發現到近三年平均 sales growth rate 有表現的比較好,但未 達我們預設的期望成長率 12%。 過去三年平均 EPS growth rate 為 49.07%,過去五年平均 EPS growth rate 為 42.14%,相互比較,發現到近三年平均 EPS growth rate 有表現的比較好,而 且有達到我們預設的期望成長率 12%。 近五年 EPS growth rate 45.08%〝高於〞近五年 sales growth rate 5.15%。 SALES PATTERN SALES GROWTH RATE 100,000.00 20.00% 80,000.00 15.00% 10.00% 60,000.00 SALES 5.00% 數列1 Sales 40,000.00 0.00% 20,000.00 GROWTHRATE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 -5.00% 0.00 1 3 5 7 9 -10.00% Year YEAR 第 6 頁,共 17 頁 EPS GROWTH RATE EPS PATTERN 700.00% 600.00% 3.00 500.00% 2.50 400.00% 2.00 300.00% 數列1 1.50 EPS 200.00% EPS 1.00 100.00% GROWTHRATE 0.50 0.00% 0.00 -100.00% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 -200.00% YEAR YEAR 過去三年平均 Cash Flow growth rate 為 14.44%,過去五年平均 Cash Flow growth rate 為 12.52%,相互比較,發現到近三年平均 Cash Flow growth rate 有表現的比較好。 近五年 Cash Flow growth rate 12.52%〝低於〞近五年 EPS growth rate 45.08%。 第 7 頁,共 17 頁 HIGH & LOW P/E RATIOS 1200.00 1000.00 800.00 HIGH 600.00 LOW P/E Ratios P/E 400.00 200.00 0.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Year 2000、2001 年受網路泡沫化的影響,所以高、低價本益比差距甚大,目前的 P/E ratio 為 20.48,期望的 P/E ratio 為 21,所以有達到我們預設的 P/E ratio; 過去三年平均 P/E ratio 為 32.59%,過去五年平均 P/E ratio 為 32.03%,相互比 較,發現到近五年平均 P/E ratio 表現的比較好;目前的 P/E ratio 低於過去五年 平均 P/E ratio。 第 8 頁,共 17 頁 % PRE-TAX PROFIT & % EARNED ON EQUITY 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% % PRE-TAX PROFIT 6.00% % EARNED ON EQUITY PERCENT 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 YEAR 稅前淨利占銷貨的比率過去五年為 3.35%,過去三年為 4.41%,過去三年比過 去五年好,盈餘占權益的比率過去五年為 3.82%,過去三年為 2.83%,過去五 年比過去三年好。 One plus growth rate 為 1+5.01%,由此可知 Raised to power 5 可利用 (1+5.01%)^5 算出為 1.276704;Sales projection 為 2007Sales* Raised to power 5,Earning 為 2362.7,求出未來五年 EPS 的目標是要達到 2.36。 第 9 頁,共 17 頁 Low price 的部分,我們認為不管是成長型亦或是價值型的公司,都追求著股價 極大化,所以這一部份,我們選擇 a 來當 Low price。 過去五年為 77.89,未達到目標 89.75。目前的價格 50.39 低於 77.89 所以是可 以購買的。 Current dividend yield 為 2007 dividend yield*Present price;Average yield over next 5 years 為 Projected EPS*5 year average payout%;Annual rate of return over 5 years 為 Price target / 5 + Average yield over next 5 year。 第 10 頁,共 17 頁 銷貨不論在過去三年或是過去五年都〝未達成〞目標利率 12%,而盈餘不論在 過去三年或是過去五年都〝達成〞目標利率 12%。 SONY 過去五年的 Present〝達成〞了目標,Price 在過去五年增加的比率〝未 達成〞100%,Projected price 在過去五年增加的比率亦〝未達成〞100%;因為 P/E 是 Downside ratio 為負的,所以應該賣出。 第 11 頁,共 17 頁 由資本化的表格可看出 SONY 的資本化是很大的。 由型態的表格可發現 SONY 的 P/B 比、P/E 比和 P/E toEPS Growth 皆小於標準, 唯有 Dividend Yield 是大於標準,所以 SONY 已經是價值型的產業了。 2006 年 第 12 頁,共 17 頁 除了負債權益比以外的比率,如果公司比率低於產業平均值,則會指示 BAD, 反之,則會指示 GOOD;若公司的負債權益比低於產業平均值,則會指示 GOOD,反之,則會指示 BAD。 資料來源:http://finance.yahoo.com 就產業排名來說,SONY 的 Revenue、growthLong-term growth rate 排名分別 為 10、13 名是較具劣勢的地方。 資料來源:http://finance.yahoo.com 第 13 頁,共 17 頁 Sector: Consumer goods Industry: Electronic Equipment Price 2008.4.4~2008.5.30 Date Close Date Close 30-May-08 50.39 1-May-08 46.60 29-May-08 48.43 30-Apr-08 45.79 28-May-08 47.69 29-Apr-08 45.94 27-May-08 48.02 28-Apr-08 45.92 23-May-08 48.05 25-Apr-08 45.63 22-May-08 48.57 24-Apr-08 44.02 21-May-08 47.63 23-Apr-08 43.80 20-May-08 48.74 22-Apr-08 43.03 19-May-08 49.70 21-Apr-08 44.36 16-May-08 49.50 18-Apr-08 43.58 15-May-08 50.53 17-Apr-08 42.39 14-May-08 49.93 16-Apr-08 41.84 13-May-08 46.06 15-Apr-08 39.80 12-May-08 45.30 14-Apr-08 39.86 9-May-08 44.74 11-Apr-08 40.76 8-May-08 45.60 10-Apr-08 40.91 7-May-08 46.22 9-Apr-08 40.32 6-May-08 47.30 8-Apr-08 40.56 5-May-08 46.81 7-Apr-08 42.47 2-May-08 47.59 4-Apr-08 41.90 close price 60 50 40 Close 30 20 10 0 date 08/4/4 08/5/2 08/5/9 08/4/11 08/4/18 08/4/25 08/5/16 08/5/23 08/5/30 持有期間收益率:20.26% 資料來源:http://finance.yahoo.com 第 14 頁,共 17 頁 總結: 4/4 到 5/30 的持有期間收益率是 20.26%,若是從 4/4 買進股票的人,在 5/30 賣出,可獲得 20.26%的獲利,另外 SONY 的 growthLong-term growth rate(5 yr) 排名為 13 名,所以 growthLong-term growth rate(5 yr)表現沒有那麼的好,於是 適合〝喜歡短期超盤者可獲利〞。 以長期來看,SONY 是屬於價值型的公司,過去都有穩定的發放股利,想賺 取股利者,可選擇這家公司。 附錄 3 年 B/S PERIOD ENDING 31-Mar-07 31-Mar-06 31-Mar-05 Assets Current Assets Cash And Cash Equivalents 6,799,142 5,976,333 7,259,534 Short Term Investments 4,193,178 4,564,228 4,279,879 Net Receivables 13,715,252 10,257,962 10,848,599 Inventory 7,997,438 6,840,154 5,871,546 Other Current Assets 5,942,138 4,402,278 4,812,834 Total Current Assets 38,647,146 32,040,954 33,072,390 Long Term Investments 33,054,256 29,919,210 25,534,908 Property Plant and Equipment 12,083,014 11,802,650 12,763,311 Goodwill 2,589,687 2,541,704 2,640,484 Intangible Assets 4,606,567 4,822,951 4,333,661 Accumulated Amortization - - - Other Assets 3,413,940 4,262,223 4,275,508 Deferred Long Term Asset Charges 5,194,469 4,776,210 5,721,369 Total Assets 99,589,077 90,165,901 88,341,630 Liabilities Current Liabilities Accounts Payable 18,859,265 14,921,861 14,955,897 Short/Current Long Term Debt 811,419 2,858,729 2,141,474 第 15 頁,共 17 頁 Other Current Liabilities 10,520,059 9,421,349 9,029,751 Total Current Liabilities 30,190,742 27,201,938 26,127,122 Long Term Debt 8,508,543 6,501,633 6,314,626 Other Liabilities 29,688,197 27,074,005 28,312,250 Deferred Long Term Liability Charges 2,219,367 1,840,225 671,711 Minority Interest 331,245 315,359 221,777 Negative Goodwill - - - Total Liabilities 70,938,093 62,933,159 61,647,487 Stockholders' Equity Misc Stocks Options Warrants - - - Redeemable Preferred Stock - - - Preferred Stock - - - Common Stock 5,328,710 5,305,054 5,781,894 Retained Earnings 15,338,480 14,461,977 14,566,227 Treasury Stock (30,932) (26,580) (55,800) Capital Surplus 9,719,096 9,661,423 10,548,265 Other Stockholder Equity (1,704,369) (2,169,132) (4,146,442) Total Stockholder Equity 28,650,984 27,232,742 26,694,143 Net Tangible Assets $21,454,731 $19,868,087 $19,719,999 3 年 I/S PERIOD ENDING 31-Mar-07 31-Mar-06 31-Mar-05 Total Revenue 70,513,408 63,541,206 66,584,429 Cost of Revenue 54,652,433 43,786,875 50,988,998 Gross Profit 15,860,975 19,754,332 15,595,430 Operating Expenses Research Development - - - Selling General and Administrative 15,201,630 17,500,183 14,275,640 Non Recurring 49,470 628,482 260,344 Others - - - Total Operating Expenses - - - 第 16 頁,共 17 頁 Operating Income or Loss 609,875 1,625,668 1,059,447 Income from Continuing Operations Total Other Income/Expenses Net 489,303 1,054,595 631,154 Earnings Before Interest And Taxes 1,099,178 2,680,263 1,690,601 Interest Expense 231,863 246,466 228,575 Income Before Tax 867,315 2,433,797 1,462,025 Income Tax Expense 458,048 1,500,378 149,209 Minority Interest (4,038) 5,321 (15,354) Net Income From Continuing Ops 1,073,788 1,050,736 1,567,524 Non-recurring Events Discontinued Operations - - - Extraordinary Items - - - Effect Of Accounting Changes - - (43,831) Other Items - - - Net Income 1,073,788 1,050,736 1,523,693 Preferred Stock And Other Adjustments - - - Net Income Applicable To Common Shares $1,073,788 $1,050,736 $1,523,693 第 17 頁,共 17 頁 .
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