Labour Force-Based Investment Attraction: Town of Innisfil
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LABOUR FORCE-BASED INVESTMENT ATTRACTION CONNECTING THE DOTS… Proximate Labour Force Capacity, Occupational Demand and Target Industries May 2018 Prepared by: McSweeney & Associates 201-900 Greenbank Road, Ottawa, ON K2J 1S8 1-855-300-8548 | [email protected] | www.mcsweeney.ca LABOUR FORCE-BASED INVESTMENT ATTRACTION CONNECTING THE DOTS... Contents 1. Executive Summary .........................................................................................................................1 2. Study Methodology ..........................................................................................................................3 3. Skills & Occupations of Innisfil and Area Labour Force ...............................................7 3.1 Innisfil Residents – Education, Field of Study, Occupations .............................................7 3.2 York & Simcoe Residents: Education & Field of Study ....................................................... 11 3.3 Characteristics of Innisfil’s Current Labour Force ...................................................................13 3.4 Understanding Labour Force Commuter Flows .....................................................................15 3.5 The 30-Minute Drive Labour Market ................................................................................................ 19 3.6 The 60-Minute Drive Labour Market ...............................................................................................27 3.7 The 90-Minute Drive Labour Market ................................................................................................33 3.8 Conclusions: Occupations With Potential to Attract Business ....................................39 4. Key Industries Employing Key Occupations ...................................................................40 4.1 Industries Requiring the Available Occupations .....................................................................40 4.2 Largest Relevant Industries ....................................................................................................................43 4.3 Fast-Growing Industries .............................................................................................................................44 4.4 Largest Generating Industries ..............................................................................................................45 4.5 Concentrated Industries ............................................................................................................................46 4.6 Shift Share Analysis .......................................................................................................................................48 4.7 Summary of Key Industries .....................................................................................................................50 4.8 Mapping Key Industries and Key Occupations ........................................................................51 4.9 Conclusions: Potential Key Industries Attraction Opportunities ................................57 5. Determining Innisfil Target Industries .................................................................................59 5.1 Business Location Factors to Narrow Potential Key Industries ...................................59 5.2 Pinpointing the Top Target Industries..............................................................................................62 6. Improving Investment Attraction Readiness ...........................................................................64 Appendix A: Industry Definitions ............................................................................................67 Appendix B: Data Sources .........................................................................................................68 LABOUR FORCE-BASED INVESTMENT ATTRACTION CONNECTING THE DOTS... List of Figures & Tables Figure 1: Highest certificate; diploma or degree (persons aged 15 years and over) in Innisfil, 2016 ..........................8 Figure 2: Major Field of Post-Secondary Study (persons aged 15 and over) in Innisfil, 2016 ...........................................9 Figure 3: Occupations of Innisfil Residents (aged 15 and over), 2016 ...............................................................................................10 Figure 4: Highest certificate; diploma or degree (persons aged 15 years and over) in York Region and Simcoe County, 2016 ...............................................................................................................................................................................11 Figure 5: York-Simcoe Major Field of Post-Secondary Study (persons aged 25-64) ........................................................... 12 Figure 6: Jobs by Municipality Within a 90-Minute Drive of Innisfil ....................................................................................................18 Figure 7: Concentrated Occupations by Location Quotient (within a 30-minute drive), 2017 ....................................... 21 Figure 8: Occupations of Interest Within a 30-Minute Drive ................................................................................................................... 26 Figure 9: Concentrated Occupations by Location Quotient (within a 60-minute drive), 2017 ..................................... 28 Figure 10: Occupations of Interest Within a 60-Minute Drive .................................................................................................................32 Figure 11: Concentrated Occupations by Location Quotient (within a 90-minute drive), 2017 .....................................34 Figure 12: Occupations of Interest Within a 90-Minute Drive ................................................................................................................. 38 Table 1: Key Labour Force Indicators for Innisfil ..................................................................................................................................................13 Table 2: Place of Residence for Persons Commuting to Work in Innisfil, 2016 ..........................................................................15 Table 3: Where Innisfil Resident Labour Force Works, 2016 .................................................................................................................... 16 Table 4: Municipal Make-up of Labour Shed Areas .........................................................................................................................................17 Table 5: Occupational Demand (Employed) Within 30-minutes of Innisfil ....................................................................................19 Table 6: Shift Share Analysis of Occupations Within a 30-Minute Drive, 2012-2017 ............................................................. 23 Table 7: Occupational Demand (Employed) Within a 60-Minute Drive, 2017 ............................................................................ 27 Table 8: Shift Share Analysis of Occupations Within a 60-Minute Drive, 2012-2017 .............................................................29 Table 9: Occupational Demand (Employed) Within a 90-Minute Drive, 2017 ............................................................................33 Table 10: Shift Share Analysis for Competitive Occupations within a 90-Minute Drive, 2012-2017 ..........................35 Table 11: Largest Relevant Industries in 2017 .......................................................................................................................................................43 Table 12: Fast Growing Industries by Percentage Increase in Jobs ....................................................................................................44 Table 13: Top Export Dollar Generating Industries, 2013 .............................................................................................................................45 Table 14: Highly Concentrated Industries (by LQ) Relative to the GTA ............................................................................................46 Table 15: Highly Concentrated Industries (by LQ) Relative to Ontario ..............................................................................................47 Table 16: Competitive Industries, based on Shift Share Analysis, 2012-2017 .............................................................................49 Table 17: Top Target Industries by Small Company Size .............................................................................................................................62 LABOUR FORCE-BASED INVESTMENT ATTRACTION CONNECTING THE DOTS... | 1 1 executive summary The Town of Innisfil engaged McSweeney & Associates to seek answers to three questions: What are the skills or occupations of the 1. Innisfil and area labour force? What industries or businesses employ 2. those skills or occupations? Of those industries and businesses, which 3. represent the best business attraction opportunities for Innisfil? To begin to answer the first question, a brief snapshot of the educational levels, fields of post-secondary study, occupations as well as key labour force indicators was prepared. The next level of analysis examined several different metrics for the occupations that are in current (and predicted future) demand within 30, 60 and 90-minute drive times of Innisfil. Some of the largest occupation groups were: auditors, accountants and