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DCDC Strategic Trends Programme: Future Operating Strategic Trends Programme Future Operating Environment 2035 © Crown Copyright 08/15 Published by the Ministry of Defence UK The material in this publication is certified as an FSC mixed resourced product, fully recyclable and biodegradable. First Edition 9027 MOD FOE Cover B5 v4_0.indd 1-3 07/08/2015 09:17 Strategic Trends Programme Future Operating Environment 2035 First Edition 20150731-FOE_35_Final_v29-VH.indd 1 10/08/2015 13:28:02 ii Future Operating Environment 2035 20150731-FOE_35_Final_v29-VH.indd 2 10/08/2015 13:28:03 Conditions of release The Future Operating Environment 2035 comprises one element of the Strategic Trends Programme, and is positioned alongside Global Strategic Trends – Out to 2045 (Fifth Edition), to provide a comprehensive picture of the future. This has been derived through evidence-based research and analysis headed by the Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre, a department within the UK’s Ministry of Defence (MOD). This publication is the first edition of Future Operating Environment 2035 and is benchmarked at 30 November 2014. Any developments taking place after this date have not been considered. The findings and deductions contained in this publication do not represent the official policy of Her Majesty’s Government or that of UK MOD. It does, however, represent the view of the Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre. This information is Crown copyright. The intellectual property rights for this publication belong exclusively to the MOD. Unless you get the sponsor’s authorisation, you should not reproduce, store in a retrieval system or transmit its information in any form outside the MOD. This information may be subject to privately owned rights. Future Operating Environment 2035 iiiiii 20150731-FOE_35_Final_v29-VH.indd 3 10/08/2015 13:28:03 20150731-FOE_35_Final_v29-VH.indd 4 10/08/2015 13:28:05 Contents Introduction ........................................................... vii Chapter 1 Strategic context . 1 The global context ...................................................................1 The UK context ......................................................................5 Global stress map : 2035 ..............................................................8 Chapter 2 Characteristics of the future operating environment . 11 Actors .............................................................................. 11 Institutions . 12 Culture and identity ................................................................13 Technology .........................................................................13 Cyberspace. 20 Electromagnetic environment ......................................................20 Physical environment. 21 Future legal aspects ................................................................25 Chapter 3 Implications for Defence . 29 The challenge ......................................................................29 The increased importance of the ‘understand’ function .............................30 Remote and automated systems ....................................................31 Access, anti-access and area denial ..................................................32 The urban and littoral challenge ....................................................32 Blurring of UK and overseas threats .................................................32 Humanitarian assistance and disaster relief ..........................................33 Reconstitution ......................................................................34 Agility ..............................................................................34 Conclusion .........................................................................39 A commander’s perspective: 2035 . 41 The ‘5Cs’ . 44 Acknowledgements . 45 Future Operating Environment 2035 v 20150731-FOE_35_Final_v29-VH.indd 5 10/08/2015 13:28:06 vi Future Operating Environment 2035 20150731-FOE_35_Final_v29-VH.indd 6 10/08/2015 13:28:07 Introduction Aim commissions were produced. Subsequent The Future Operating Environment 2035 proactive engagement by DCDC with a (FOE 35) forms part of the Development, broad range of contributors has provided Concepts and Doctrine Centre’s (DCDC) essential peer review and challenge Strategic Trends Programme. DCDC is the functions for this product in pursuit of MOD’s independent think tank and, as robustness and resilience. such, FOE 35 does not represent the official position of Her Majesty’s Government. It Scope supersedes the 2010 Future Character of While FOE 35 aims to provide a long-term Conflict (FCOC) and aims to: analysis of the key characteristics of the operating environment in 2035, the nature describe the characteristics of the 2035 of ‘futures’ work is such that attempting operating environment to provide to pinpoint when particular trends or evidence-based insights that can inform characteristics will emerge is invariably future Defence capability development. problematic. Where this is the case, we discuss characteristics emerging out to, as FOE 35 describes the potential characteristics well as in, 2035. Some characteristics of the of the future operating environment, and is future operating environment in 2035 are designed primarily to inform UK Defence and likely to be similar to those apparent today, security policy-makers and our Armed Forces but novel factors will emerge and some more broadly. However, it is intended to characteristics will become increasingly have applicability across UK Government and important in determining the future agencies to help inform their understanding environment in comparison to today. of the future operating environment in which we all (military, other UK Government Chapter 1 outlines the principal factors departments, international organisations identified in GST 5 that may drive the and agencies) may find ourselves operating UK Government to employ the military in 2035. instrument. Chapter 2 describes the key institutional, technological, cultural and Method physical characteristics likely to shape the As part of DCDC’s Strategic Trends operating environment in 2035. It places Programme, FOE 35 uses Global Strategic understanding people (the actors) and Trends – Out to 2045, Fifth Edition (GST 5) their motivations at the centre of our ability as its foundation. Extensive contributions to achieve an understanding of the future were garnered from across Defence, operating environment. Chapter 3 identifies UK Government, think tanks, academics, some of the key implications drawn from our non-governmental organisations and analysis. This will enable us to assess future other UK and international institutions. military utility and opportunities for Defence Following gap analysis, additional directed in 2035. Elements of both can contribute to Defence’s future force development process. Future Operating Environment 2035 vii 20150731-FOE_35_Final_v29-VH.indd 7 10/08/2015 13:28:08 Introduction The challenge DCDC’s previous publication, the Future The challenge of looking 20 years ahead is Character of Conflict, described the 2014 joint significant but, like GST 5, this work does not battlespace as: seek to predict the future. Rather, it describes congested, cluttered, contested, the characteristics of plausible operating connected and constrained . environments, resulting from rigorous trend analysis. It seems likely that the future will While these descriptors endure, FOE 35 be characterised by an increase in the rate aims to provide a wider and more detailed and impact of some current global trends analysis to inform future Defence capability (in particular urbanisation, globalisation development. and inter-connectivity) and an increasingly complex, ambiguous and wide range of Exploitation pathway potential threats. The rate of change in some This document sets out to provide context technological fields is likely to be particularly for policy-makers. It aims to inform the dramatic, which may have the effect of debate on the future and, therefore, wider ‘accelerating’ the future towards us in certain conceptual force development. FOE 35 fields. Equally, some trends may experience is intended to provide a baseline for local reversal. The potential for unforeseen, experimentation, but not to constrain disruptive events cannot be ignored. These Commands in their thinking. Indeed, to events – or ‘shocks’ – have a low probability innovate and adapt are two attributes that of occurring, but Defence must consider will greatly assist Defence and its people as shocks because of the high impact they they move into the future. Armed with a could have. This suggests that a premium better understanding of the future through should be placed on flexibility, adaptability FOE 35, threats can be anticipated and and national resilience. Readers wanting opportunities seized. more detail on thematic and geographic trends or on potential strategic shocks should refer to GST 5. viii Future Operating Environment 2035 20150731-FOE_35_Final_v29-VH.indd 8 10/08/2015 13:28:08 Strategic context Chapter 1 Strategic context Introduction . DCDC’s Global Strategic Trends – Out to 2045, Fifth Edition (GST 5) provides The global context a vision of a world in transition out to 2045. The global trends discussed in GST 5 could There are likely to be significant challenges lead to tension, but where such trends resulting from population growth, migration, collide, instability and conflict are more likely greater demand for energy, climate change, to occur (see pages 8-9). These trends may continuing
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