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Understanding Factors Associated With Commuter Rail Ridership A Demand Elasticity Study of the GO Transit Rail Network by Aaron Shantz A thesis presented to the University of Waterloo in fulfillment of the thesis requirement for the degree of Master of Environmental Studies in Planning Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, 2021 © Aaron Shantz 2021 Author’s Declaration I hereby declare that I am the sole author of this thesis. This is a true copy of the thesis, including any required final revisions, as accepted by my examiners. I understand that this thesis may be made electronically available to the public. ii Abstract Mode share in major North American cities is currently dominated by private automobile use. Planners have theorized that transitioning commuter rail systems to regional rail networks is a viable method to increase ridership and stabilize mode share. This process is currently underway in Ontario, Canada, as the amount and frequency of service is being increased throughout the GO Transit rail network via the GO Expansion Program. However, previous studies have shown that transit demand does not solely respond to service quantity expansions. Variables related to the built environment, regional economy, network characteristics, and socioeconomic status of the customer base can influence transit demand to varying degrees. Further, the literature states that the travel behavior of commuter rail users is unique, as access mode, distance, socioeconomic status, and the utility derived from varying trip types can differ compared to local transit users. These findings suggest that supplementary policies might be needed to reduce automobile reliance and stimulate demand for regional transit. Many transit researchers have conducted demand elasticity studies to identify what factors are significantly associated with transit ridership. However, no researcher has conducted this type of analysis specific to the GO Transit rail system. The purpose of this thesis is to fill this gap. Through literature review, variables significantly associated with transit demand were first identified. Station-level datasets were then compiled at monthly intervals from January 2016 to December 2019. During this process, station catchment areas estimated using PRESTO smartcard data were used to extract data related to land use, socioeconomic, and demographic indicators. Additional factors related to station access, service quantity, and availability of substitute transport modes were also compiled. A random effect linear panel data estimator was then applied to obtain demand elasticity estimates. Of the variables included in the analysis, this study finds that several variables such as service quantity, population density, fuel price, and unemployment rate are significantly associated with transit demand, regardless of trip type examined. Ridership was also responsive to employment density and seasonal variation, although differing signs were shown depending on trip type examined. Surprisingly, demand was relatively unresponsive to enhanced station access options, including park and ride capacity and the quality of feeder bus connections. The results suggest that policies in addition to the service quantity improvements as outlined in the GO Expansion Program should be considered to further increase system demand. Those aimed towards heightened densities and land use diversities around rail stations, increasing the cost of private automobile operation, and the implementation of competitive fare price strategies are outlined. iii Notably, desktop research revealed that policies related to these factors have been previously explored by provincial stakeholders. However, only service improvements as proposed within the GO Expansion Program have been committed too. Knowing that demand is responsive to these factors could increase the level of political willingness needed to implement these policies to further increase ridership and subsequently balance mode share. These findings could also be used by Metrolinx to justify the allocation of resources needed to update or implement policies within the study area. Overall, this study highlights that many factors, including those related to the built environment, network characteristics, and the price / availability of substitute transport options are significantly associated with commuter rail demand. Therefore, integrated planning policies should be considered by transit agencies undergoing similar network transitions to ensure that ridership is increased to the greatest extent possible. iv Acknowledgements First, I would like to thank my academic supervisors Jeff Casello and Clarence Woudsma who have patiently supported me during my time at the University of Waterloo. I have good memories discussing transit issues, formulating a research topic, and developing this body of work from an idea into a fully completed thesis. I will especially miss our good-natured hockey talks, which somehow managed to stay level-headed despite the rivalry between our hometown teams. I’d also like to thank Metrolinx for giving me the opportunity to first work for them in the summer of 2019 as a Student GO Planner. While employed, I was exposed to a study which evaluated change in ridership with respect to fare price changes on the Union-Pearson Express system. Without this knowledge, I would not have identified a demand elasticity study as a potential thesis topic. I further owe Metrolinx for the financial support and mentorship provided via the 2020 Rob MacIsaac Fellowship Program. I’d like to thank Amy Peebles and Natalie Petra, who recognized the potential of this research and provided professional oversight while working in this position. Various other members of the Service Planning team also played a key role in this project, including Randy Bui, Ian McNeil, Anthony Smith, and others who I might be forgetting. Your help in obtaining various datasets including fare price, ridership, customer origin, and parking statistics allowed me to advance the capacity of this research to a point that I did not think was possible at the onset of this work. This thesis would have been much more involved without help from Eddy Ionescu, who let me use a script he developed to compile service quantity data. His assistance was greatly appreciated, as his willingness to help saved countless hours of work that would have otherwise been needed. I value the talks we continue to have about transit in Ontario, and hope that we’re able to work together again in the future. Thank-you to my fellow WPTI researchers, who were so welcoming since my first day at the University of Waterloo. I have made many friends who I will miss upon graduation, including Yixin (Candice) Chen, Edward Donato, and Xiaomeng (Ming) Xu. I especially enjoyed the many late-night trips we took to Tim Hortons while working on-campus. Further, the fun times we had while travelling to and participating in the Hands-On Sustainable Mobility conference in Karlsruhe, Germany are a highlight of this degree. I will also never forget the friends I’ve made who were part of my MA & MES in Planning cohort, including Alison Curtis, Emily Stanley, Hanna Holman, Rex Lin, and Theresa Lynn. The memories we made both in and outside of the classroom will last a lifetime. A large portion of this degree I owe to my family, including my parents (Susan Shantz and Philip Shantz) my sister Laura Shantz, and my uncle Ross Steckley. They provided continued mental support and encouragement throughout the duration of this program, especially while working at home during the v COVID-19 pandemic. My Mom and Dad also deserve special recognition for letting me live at home for the duration of my studies, which made this undertaking financially possible. I would also like to thank my grandparents (John Meyer, Nora Meyer, Kay Shantz, and Wilbur Shantz), who were a source of inspiration throughout this journey. I hope this achievement has made all of you proud. This can also be said of my girlfriend Nicole Jankowski, who did the same despite pursuing her own studies at the University of Waterloo’s School of Optometry. You have done more for me during these last three years than you could possibly know. I look forward to continuing our journey together once this chapter in our life ends. Finally, I’d like to thank my friends including Brendan Burton, Sean Canham, Kevin Nogueira, John Pepall, Dan Rickert, Steve Rickert, and those involved in our poker and video game nights. Your continued friendship and our humorous times together have helped make this thesis possible. vi Table of Contents Author’s Declaration………………………………………………………………………………………………………………ii Abstract………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..iii Acknowledgements……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….v List of Figures…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..…………..xii List of Tables………………………………………………………………………………………………………….…………….xiii 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 1 1.1. Setting the Stage ....................................................................................................................... 1 1.2. The Current State of Rail Transit in North America ..................................................................... 1 1.3. The Role of Regional Rail ........................................................................................................... 2 1.4. Understanding the Determinants of Transit Demand ................................................................

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