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Cushman & Wakefield Global Cities Retail Guide

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Cushman & Wakefield Global Cities Retail Guide Cushman & Wakefield Global Cities Retail Guide One of Europe’s most northerly states, Sweden is one of the most affluent nations in Europe and the largest retail market in Scandinavia. Sweden has traditionally enjoyed high living standards, reflected in the high levels of car ownership and consumer durables. Swedish shoppers are enthusiastic about trying new products and they are often used as a test market for brands. The retail market is mature and vibrant, with most sectors home to several brands of significant size. The country has also brought some familiar names into the international retail arena. IKEA is one of the largest furniture retailers in Europe, while H&M has achieved international success in the fashion sector. The Scandinavian countries have begun to attract more foreign investment from retailers, with prime locations of particular interest. There is, however, a distinct shortage of quality high street space holding back leasing activity. Tourism is a fast growing sector in Sweden, offering the Arctic wilderness of the far north, ultra-cool urban fashion shows in the cities and five-star culinary adventures all over the country. SWEDEN OVERVIEW Cushman & Wakefield | Sweden | 2019 1 SWEDEN ECONOMIC OVERVIEW ECONOMIC SUMMARY ECONOMIC INDICATORS* 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F GDP growth 2.4 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.0 Consumer spending 1.2 1.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 Industrial production 2.6 2.0 1.1 2.5 0.2 Investment 3.5 -0.4 2.4 2.1 2.1 Unemployment rate (%) 6.3 6.5 6.4 6.1 5.9 Inflation 2.0 1.7 1.7 2.1 2.0 Krona/€ (average) 10.3 10.3 10.0 9.6 9.2 Krona/US$ (average) 8.7 9.0 8.4 7.7 7.4 Interest rates Short Term (%) -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.3 0.7 Interest rates 10-year (%) 0.7 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.7 ECONOMIC RETAIL SALES GROWTH: BREAKDOWN % CHANGE ON PREVIOUS YEAR Population 10.3 million (2019F) SWEDEN 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F GDP (nominal) US$ 552 billion (2019F) Retail Volume* 1.7 3.0 2.2 2.2 2.2 Public Sector Balance 0.9% of GDP (2019F) Public Sector Debt 47.3% of GDP (2019F) Current Account Balance 2.0% of GDP (2019F) Left-green Coalition (Social Parliament Democrats & Environmentalists) Heads of State King Carl XVI Gustaf Prime Minister Stefan Löfven Election Date September 2018 (parliamentary) NOTE: *annual % growth rate unless otherwise indicated. Figures are based on local currency and real terms. E estimate F forecast. Cushman & Wakefield | Sweden | 2019 SOURCE: Oxford Economics Ltd. 2 CITY POPULATION (2019) Stockholm 968,455 Gothenburg 581,822 Malmo 341,856 Uppsala 227,000 Linkoping 158,841 Orebro 153,367 Vasteras 153,000 Norrkoping 142,401 SWEDEN LARGEST CITIES Cushman & Wakefield | Sweden | 2019 3 SWEDEN RETAIL OVERVIEW MAJOR DOMESTIC FOOD RETAILERS ICA, Coop, Axfood, Bergendahls, Systembolaget MAJOR INTERNATIONAL FOOD RETAILERS Lidl MAJOR DOMESTIC NON-FOOD RETAILERS H&M, Ikea, Åhléns, Stadium, Gina Tricot, Lindex, KappAhl, Twilfit, Clas Ohlson, Naturkompaniet, Byggmax, Nilson Group, Rusta, Jula, Biltema INTERNATIONAL RETAILERS IN SWEDEN (Selection) Zara, Mango, Mediamarkt, Hollister, Desigual, Esprit, Varner, Bestseller, Apple, Victoria’s Secret, XXL, Elgiganten FOOD AND BEVERAGE OPERATORS Espresso House, Starbucks, Waynes Coffee, McDonalds, Burger King, Max, Pizza Hut, O’Learys TYPICAL HOURS MONDAY-FRIDAY SATURDAY SUNDAY 10.00-19.00 10.00-17.00 11.00-16.00 NEW ENTRANTS TO MARKET Eataly Cartier Arket Moncler Lululemon Suitsupply Normal Jimmy Choo Ganni Viu Sandro Totême Cushman & Wakefield | Sweden | 2019 4 SWEDEN RETAIL SCENE The Swedish market is growing with E-commerce has developed rapidly, the main contributing households spending 40% on retail (Invest factors are high levels of internet penetration, high levels Stockholm, 2018). The consumers are trend- of credit and debit card usage, long distances to retail sensitive and early adopters, making the destinations and rising levels of confidence in security. capital Stockholm a popular test market for It is possible to enter the Swedish retail market directly, global brands. The city is known as the though many also franchise and enter via fashion capital of Scandinavia with many concessions/shop-in-shops. There are no restrictions on design brands represented. foreign companies either buying or renting property in Sweden. It is generally believed that the Swedish lease There is considerable supply of retail space on the structure is more orientated toward tenants than landlords. Swedish market. The total retail stock amounts to approx. The tenancy security is strong and the tenant has right to 18 million sqm including shopping centres, retail parks renewal at the lease end. and high street premises. Equating to 400 sqm GLA per Although it is possible in theory to occupy a new building 1,000 people, compared to the EU average of 231 sqm, within a few weeks, it is more realistic to expect that on only Norway has a higher figure of retail space per capita average it will take 6-9 months from initialising the in Europe (Business Sweden, 2017). However, while there property search to taking occupation of an existing is plenty of shopping centre space, high street locations property. This includes time for considering location are limited, particularly in the capital. options, the identification of buildings or sites, negotiating Most major Swedish cities have at least one retail park. leasehold or freehold terms and drafting of the appropriate Ikea dominates the out of town market along with foreign legal documentation. A Stockholm high street location players such as Bauhaus, Elgiganten and Media Markt. may require even more time and patience. The main anchor tenants for any retail scheme are H&M and the public liquor store Systembolaget. The factory outlet centre market is immature and only a few schemes have opened including Stockholm Quality Outlet. In other regards, however, Sweden is well developed in the retail market. It is active and has seen an increasing number of retailers entering over recent years. Cushman & Wakefield | Sweden | 2019 5 SWEDEN SHOPPING CENTRES TOP TEN SHOPPING CENTRES BY SIZE NAME CITY SIZE (GLA SQM) YEAR OPENED Mall of Scandinavia Stockholm 103,000 2015 Väla Helsingborg 100,000 1974 Emporia Malmö 93,000 2012 Kista Galleria Stockholm 92,500 1977 Täby Centrum Stockholm 81,500 1968 Nordstan Gothenburg 77,500 1972 Frölunda Torg Gothenburg 55,900 1966 SKHLM Stockholm 53,950 1968 Mobilia Stockholm 52,000 1968 Farsta Centrum Malmö 51,000 1960 Source: Swedish Shopping Centre Directory Cushman & Wakefield | Sweden | 2018 6 SWEDEN KEY FEATURES OF LEASE STRUCTURE SUBKEY -FEATURESHEADING OF LEASE ITEM COMMENT Lease Terms Normally 3 or 5 years, but can be longer and this applies to all sectors. Lease terms are sometimes longer during the first term, in particular if the let area is large, or if the lease involves large investment commitments from the Landlord. Leases quoted in SKr per year. No break options on short leases, but more common on those of over 5 years. Rental Payment Quarterly in advance or sometimes monthly in advance. A turnover indexation may be applied, and this is becoming more commonplace, especially for anchor tenants in shopping centres. A security deposit of up to 12 months’ rent is required. Premiums are commonplace in the retail sector. Premiums/key money payable in practice only for prime high street retail pitches. Rent Review Rents are usually indexed according to the Consumer Price Index (KPI). Commercial leases are automatically renewed at the end of the lease term (usually 3 or 5 years at a time). Following the termination of a commercial lease by the landlord, the tenant is entitled to compensation, unless the landlord can provide other premises for lease or certain other circumstances (such as the tenant's misconduct) are at hand. Therefore, the Tenant always has a so called “indirect” security of tenure. Effectively there is no review within Swedish leases. The lease will generally contain an annual index linked clause, but at no time during the term of the lease does a rent review take place. The rent is reviewed to market rent at the end of the lease by negotiation with the landlord and tenant. Service Charges, Repairs and Both internal and external repairs are usually covered by the tenant’s rent. Normally, other than charges for heating & cooling, there are no Insurance extra service charges in Swedish commercial leases, apart from in shopping centres. Insurance is always covered by the landlord, only the tenants own insurance to be paid by the tenant. Property Taxes and Other Costs National Government tax ‘Fastighetsskatt’ is paid at the start of a lease and then every year. It is based on a percentage of the freehold taxable value calculated by the local authority. This is billed to the landlord, who then charges it back to the tenant, primarily based on a floor area occupied ratio basis. This tax will usually amount to around 10% of the annual rent. VAT of 25% payable on rent. Disposal of a Lease Assignment/Sub-letting is allowed according to Swedish law. Early termination only by break clause. The tenant normally has to leave the premises in the same conditions as it were when they took possession. Valuation Methods Floor space is measured on a ‘gross internal area’ basis, with some differences to RICS standards. Refer to SS 021053 Svensk Standard, SIS Swedish Institute for Standards Authority. No standard practice of zoning. Legislation Refer to Swedish Law, Hyreslagen, Jordabalken. The majority of landlords use the standard lease that was developed by the Swedish Owner’s Association. The lease contract is legally binding. Cushman & Wakefield | Sweden | 2019 7 JENS LINDERSTAM Head of Retail Services – Sweden Cushman & Wakefield Regeringsgatan 59 PO Box 3637, 103 59 Stockholm, Sweden Office: +46 (0)8 671 34 00 Mobile: +46 (0)70 246 21 81 [email protected] No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, and the same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by our principals.
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