Policy Research Working Paper 9754 Public Disclosure Authorized Warlords, State Failures, and the Rise of Communism in China Public Disclosure Authorized Zhangkai Huang Meng Miao Yi Shao Lixin Colin Xu Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Development Economics Development Research Group August 2021 Policy Research Working Paper 9754 Abstract This paper documents that the spread of communism to instrument border ruggedness. More people from fam- in China was partly caused by state failures in the early ine-inflicted prefectures died in the subsequent decades 20th century. It finds that famines became more frequent for the communist movement, but not for the National- after China fell into warlord fragmentation, especially ist Army. There is evidence that famines exacerbated rural for prefectures with less rugged borders and those facing inequality, which pushed more peasants to the side of the stronger military threat. The relation between topography communists. and famines holds when using historical border changes This paper is a product of the Development Research Group, Development Economics. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at
[email protected]. The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished.