Political stability and the fragmentation of online publics in multilingual states Francesco Bailo The University of Sydney Internet, Politics, and Policy conference Oxford Internet Institute, University of Oxford 23 September 2016 @FrBailo Factionalisation, group grievance and political stability CHE CHE 10.0 CHE CHECHECHECHECHECHE 1 BELBEL 1 BELBEL BIHBIH BEL BELBELBEL BELBELBELBELBEL BIHBIHBIHBIHBIH BEL BEL BIHBIH UKRUKRUKRUKRUKRUKRUKR UKR UKR 7.5 UKR 0 UKRUKRUKRBIH 0 UKRUKRUKRUKRBIH UKRBIH UKRBIHBIH BIHBIHBIH BIHBIHBIHBIH UKR BIH UKR BIHBIH BIH −1 −1 5.0 BELBELBEL political stability political stability −2 UKR −2 UKR BEL factionalized elites BELBEL 2.5 BELBEL −3 −3 CHECHECHECHECHECHECHE 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0 factionalised elites (R2 = 0.57) group grievance (R2 = 0.659) group grievance (R2 = 0.701) Source: Worldwide governance indicators, World Bank (2014) and Fragile States Index, The Fund for Peace (2014)
[email protected] 2/20 @FrBailo Segregation along ethnolinguistic lines and quality of government According to Alesina and Zhuravskaya (2011) I ‘higher ethnic and linguistic segregation is associated with significantly lower government quality’ and I ‘generalized trust is lower in more segregated countries and higher in countries with good government’
[email protected] 3/20 @FrBailo Political and ethnolinguistic fragmentation Political dimension As position on a 1 to 5 (left to right) continuous scale For parties based on Wikipedia data (Political position) mapped to continuous