Estimating the Towed Glider Air Launch System (TGALS) Summarizing A Project For NNNAAASASASSSSSSAAAAAA August 14, 2019 Doug Howarth, CEO, MEE Inc.
[email protected]@meevaluators.com +1 661.713.7531 1 Overview • Results in brief • Primary models used • X-planes • Gliders • Rocket engines • Civil aircraft • Risk • Cost models compared • Summary Copyright 2017 MEE Inc. 2 Results In Brief •TGALS development: $57.4M; $36M-$92M, 68.3% confidence • X-plane model • 90% new • Initial empty weight of 8,650 lbs grows to10,000 lbs • All structure made of composites • NASA performs flight test • Rocket engine estimate of $19M from Rocketdyne • Development cost remaining: $15M • Average unit price of $1M for four (4) units • Total cost $57.4M (TGALS) + $19M (engines) = $76.4M Copyright 2017 MEE Inc. 3 Primary Models For The Towed Glider Air Launch System (TGALS)1-6 Rocket engines Civil aircraft X-planes TGALS Modern gliders Historical gliders Copyright 2017 MEE Inc. 4 X-Planes Copyright 2017 MEE Inc. 5 Preliminary X-Plane Database We created a dataset that bounds TGALS Copyright 2017 MEE Inc. 6 X-55A Is Of Particular Interest, Since It Is Made of Large Composite Parts7 This looks like the Dornier 328, upon which it is based…but it is different Copyright 2017 MEE Inc. 7 Compared To History, LM Used Fewer, Larger Composite Parts To Lower Cost8 LM rebuilt the Dornier 328 fuselage and vertical tail assembly with 301 composite parts, a reduction of 90% of the existing metallic part count Copyright 2017 MEE Inc. 8 How Many Parts Were In This Region When Dornier Built It With Metal?9, 10 To answer this question, we must estimate the weight of the vehicle built by Dornier This amount, known as Defense Contractors Planning Report (DCPR) is defined as Empty weight of the airplane - Wheels, brakes, tires and tubes - Engines - Starters - Cooling fluid - etc.