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Estimating the Towed Glider Air Launch System (TGALS) Summarizing a Project for NNNAAASASASSSSSSAAAAAA

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Estimating the Towed Glider Air Launch System (TGALS) Summarizing a Project for NNNAAASASASSSSSSAAAAAA Estimating the Towed Glider Air Launch System (TGALS) Summarizing A Project For NNNAAASASASSSSSSAAAAAA August 14, 2019 Doug Howarth, CEO, MEE Inc. [email protected]@meevaluators.com +1 661.713.7531 1 Overview • Results in brief • Primary models used • X-planes • Gliders • Rocket engines • Civil aircraft • Risk • Cost models compared • Summary Copyright 2017 MEE Inc. 2 Results In Brief •TGALS development: $57.4M; $36M-$92M, 68.3% confidence • X-plane model • 90% new • Initial empty weight of 8,650 lbs grows to10,000 lbs • All structure made of composites • NASA performs flight test • Rocket engine estimate of $19M from Rocketdyne • Development cost remaining: $15M • Average unit price of $1M for four (4) units • Total cost $57.4M (TGALS) + $19M (engines) = $76.4M Copyright 2017 MEE Inc. 3 Primary Models For The Towed Glider Air Launch System (TGALS)1-6 Rocket engines Civil aircraft X-planes TGALS Modern gliders Historical gliders Copyright 2017 MEE Inc. 4 X-Planes Copyright 2017 MEE Inc. 5 Preliminary X-Plane Database We created a dataset that bounds TGALS Copyright 2017 MEE Inc. 6 X-55A Is Of Particular Interest, Since It Is Made of Large Composite Parts7 This looks like the Dornier 328, upon which it is based…but it is different Copyright 2017 MEE Inc. 7 Compared To History, LM Used Fewer, Larger Composite Parts To Lower Cost8 LM rebuilt the Dornier 328 fuselage and vertical tail assembly with 301 composite parts, a reduction of 90% of the existing metallic part count Copyright 2017 MEE Inc. 8 How Many Parts Were In This Region When Dornier Built It With Metal?9, 10 To answer this question, we must estimate the weight of the vehicle built by Dornier This amount, known as Defense Contractors Planning Report (DCPR) is defined as Empty weight of the airplane - Wheels, brakes, tires and tubes - Engines - Starters - Cooling fluid - etc. Using a DoD DCPR formula for an empty weight of 20,768 lbs we find: DCPR = 0.246EW1.096 = 13,270 lbs Copyright 2017 MEE Inc. 9 How Much Rework Did LM Perform? Typical Weight Statement Struct Struct LM Struct New System Sys lbs Sys % lbs Wing 7,526 0% 0 Tail 1,477 50% 739 Body 6,909 100% 6,909 All 15,912 48.1% 7,648 structure LM did less than half (7,648/15,912 = 48.1%) of the structural modifications possible; all composites would have > 2X the cost impact Copyright 2017 MEE Inc. 10 The EZ Rocket Was A Rebuilt Long-EZ Kit Plane: What Was Their % New?13, 14 We don’t have a weight statement for the Long-EZ, but found one for the Citation- 500, from which we drew analogies EZ-Rocket had a new propulsion system, and rebuilt half of its instrument system System Sys lbs Sys % New lbs MEW % Propulsion 340 100% 340 5.3% Instrument 76 50% 38 0.6% Aircraft 6,379 378 5.9% Copyright 2017 MEE Inc. 11 How Do We Calculate % New Without Detailed Weight Statements? FROM: G650 TO: G650ER FROM: 1/3 TGALS TO: TGALS Does it Wgtd Does it Wgtd Base apply Basis Base apply Basis Newness Factor Description Points here? Wgt Pnts Old New Points here? Wgt Pnts Old New Size (New MEW - Old MEW)/Old MEW 0.1% Yes 0.5 0.1% 53,200 53,263 7042.9% No 0.5 140 10,000 (New Thrst - Old Thrst)/Old Thrst 0.0% Yes 0.5 0.0% 33,800 33,800 100.0% Yes 0.5 50.0% 0 1 Propulsion Any change in engine quantity 15% No 1.0 15% Yes 1.0 15.0% Minimal (Like F/A-18E/F) 5% Yes 1.0 5.0% 5% Yes 1.0 5.0% Avionics Moderate (In between F-18, F-22) 10% No 1.0 10% No 1.0 Changes Extensive (Like F/A-22) 30% No 1.0 30% No 1.0 Other Any other Changes (list) 5% No 1.0 5% No 1.0 < 1 Year 0% No 1.0 0% No 1.0 Development 1 < X < 3 20% No 1.0 20% Yes 1.0 20.0% Lag > 3 Years 50% No 1.0 50% No 1.0 Calculated % new 5.1% 90.0% While some of the contributions used here involve judgment, which we like to avoid, this format has resonated with users – users can change this in the model Copyright 2017 MEE Inc. 12 How Does The Part Count Reduction Work In Cost Reduction?15 A 2010 masters thesis based on Skunk Works data: manufacturing costs vary with part count That paper reveals how aircraft weight and part count relate to one another 2 points determine a power curve 6,000, 10,000 20,000, 20,000 Copyright 2017 MEE Inc. 13 From A DoD Paper, We Have A Formula For DCPR From MEW16 For MEW <= 10,000 lbs: DCPR = 13.26MEW0.674 => DCPR = 6,585 lbs From the equation: part count = 66.8*6,5850.58 = 10,953; lbs/part = 0.60 Previously… Thus… A 90%-part count reduction reduces manufacturing labor by > 70% Copyright 2017 MEE Inc. 14 The Thesis Has Several Cost Curves Each discipline responds differently to part count reductions Copyright 2017 MEE Inc. 15 Construction Differences From X- Planes To Gliders Can Be Significant17,18 The Boeing X-51A has many more systems and parts than a glider Gliders have fewer, larger parts Copyright 2017 MEE Inc. 16 X-Plane Database 7 observations 3 variables may help Combinations Copyright 2017 MEE Inc. 17 Use Of Monolithic Composites Drives Costs Down, As Proven By The LM X-55 X-55 dev cost was $57.44M If made of metal, its dev cost would have been $79.83M If all the structure in the X-55 were made of composites, dev cost would have been one half of the sheet metal cost Almost all the TGALS structure will use composites – This gives a 50% reduction from X-plane development costs Copyright 2017 MEE Inc. 18 NASA Would Do Flight Test: RAND Derived Equations For It19 We averaged alternatives 1 and 2 for flight test Copyright 2017 MEE Inc. 19 Gliders Copyright 2017 MEE Inc. 20 40s’ Gliders Form A WWII Database20-35 Copyright 2017 MEE Inc. 21 We Can Also Express 1940s Glider Prices In Terms Of %NewMEWMaxMPH Copyright 2017 MEE Inc. 22 Given BEA Inflation, Modern Gliders Are 50% More Costly Than WII Models36, 37 Only a few modern gliders are for sale online: We removed “Diana 2” and rounded to one decimal point: Copyright 2017 MEE Inc. 23 Rocket Engines Copyright 2017 MEE Inc. 24 MEE Approached Multiple Companies: Rocketdyne Gave A Full Estimate38, 39 •Rocketdyne has produced a 30,000 lbf of its Bantam engine, using 3D printing •It is a LOX-kerosene, pressure-fed engine •Rocketdyne needs • $15M for development • $1M/engine: each engine is good for eight (8) launches • MEE assumed NASA would need four (4) engines Copyright 2017 MEE Inc. 25 Civil Aircraft Copyright 2017 MEE Inc. 26 We Built A Civil Aircraft Database From Publicly Available Sources40 This curve’s slope is nearly identical to that for X- planes, but its constant is about 3.2 times greater Copyright 2017 MEE Inc. 27 Risk Copyright 2017 MEE Inc. 28 Programs’ Weight Growth41 Program 1 Normalized MEW over Time Program 2 130% Program 3 125% Program 4 Program 5 W 120% E Program 6 M la M 115% Program 7 nig Program 8 ir 110% Program 9 O fo fo 105% Program 10 % Program 11 100% Program 12 95% Program 13 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Program 14 Program Flight test Go-ahead % of Schedule complete Program 15 Program 16 Final MEW = 1.472 * starting MEW0.9732; R2 = 99.8% Copyright 2017 MEE Inc. 29 Risk Model Yields Copyright 2017 MEE Inc. 30 Cost Models Compared Copyright 2017 MEE Inc. 31 Here Are The Cost Models: We Think The Adjusted X-Plane Is The Best Result This baseline model is reconfigurable in Excel and ties to the risk model Here, gliders’ curves are power form equations, which perform best at low values Copyright 2017 MEE Inc. 32 Summary Copyright 2017 MEE Inc. 33 Summary • MEE approached the problem from multiple angles • X-planes • Gliders • Part counts • Rocket engines (add to X-plane cost) • Civil aircraft (cross check) • Risk • Weight growth • Statistically derived cost risk bands • Cost TGALS development: $57.4M Bantam development: $15.0M Recurring engines: $4.0M (assumes 4 engines, 8 flights/engine) Total Program: $76.4M • The X-plane and the glider cost models converge Copyright 2017 MEE Inc. 34 References (1 of 2) 1) NASA TGALS picture from http://newatlas.com/nasa-glider-launch-satellites-tgals/36010/ 2) DG-808C Competition glider picture from https://www.dg-flugzeugbau.de/en/aircrafts/dg-808c-competition 3) Waco CG-4A glider picture from https://www.pinterest.com/pin/302022718739107381/?lp=true 4) Lockheed Martin X-55A picture from https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Lockheed-Martin_X- 55A_%E2%80%98N807LM%E2%80%99_(27631301015).jpg 5) Rocketdyne Bantam 30,000 lbf thrust picture from http://www.3ders.org/articles/20170516-aerojet-rocketdyne-successfully-tests-3d- printed-bantam-rocket-with-30000-lbf-thrust.html 6) Diamond D-Jet picture from http://www.airliners.net/photo/Untitled-Diamond-Aircraft/Diamond-D-Jet/1814051 7) Lockheed Martin X-55A picture from op. cit. 8) X-55A diagram from https://thelexicans.wordpress.com/2012/10/24/the-lockheed-martin-x-55-advanced-composite-cargo-aircraft/ 9) DCPR information from Stahl, Joseph W.; Arena, Joseph A.; Knapp, Mark A; Cost-Estimating Relationships for Tactical Aircraft, prepared for the Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering, November 1984 10) Empty weight for Dornier 328-300JET from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fairchild_Dornier_328JET 11) Description of X-55 work from http://www.airforce-technology.com/projects/composite-cargo/ 12) Fokker F-28, Citation-500 weight statements from http://www.southampton.ac.uk/~jps7/Aircraft%20Design%20Resources/weight/Sample%20Aircraft%20Weight%20Statements.htm 13) XCOR EZ-Rocket data from http://digitalcommons.usu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1746&context=smallsat 14) XCOR EZ-Rocket picture from http://aircraft.wikia.com/wiki/XCOR_EZ-Rocket?file=EZRocket.png 15) Lemke, Aaron M., Part Count: Monolithic Part Effects on Manufacturing Labor Cost, an Aircraft Applied Model, from www.dtic.mil/get-tr- doc/pdf?AD=ADA519654 16) DCPR information from Stahl, Joseph W.; Arena, Joseph A.; Knapp, Mark A; Cost-Estimating Relationships for Tactical Aircraft, prepared for the Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering, November 1984 17) Boeing X-51A picture from http://keywordteam.net/gallery/742763.html 18) Sailplane construction picture from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ux0o1mbDag 19) Test and Evaluation Trends and Costs for Aircraft and Guided Weapons by Bernard Fox, Michael Boito, John Graser, Obaid Younossi, from https://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/MG109.html Copyright 2017 MEE Inc.
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