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The 1855 Wairarapa Earthquake Symposium The 1855 Wairarapa Earthquake Symposium 150 years of thinking about magnitude 8+ earthquakes and seismic hazard in New Zealand 8–10 September 2005 Museum of New Zealand Te Papa Tongarewa Proceedings Volume Compiled by John Townend, Rob Langridge, and Andrew Jones The papers collated in this volume have been reformatted, where necessary, from the authors’ originals, but have not otherwise been edited. The views expressed in these papers are those of the respective authors. The 1855 Wairarapa Earthquake Symposium — Proceedings Volume Published by Greater Wellington Regional Council Greater Wellington Publication Number: GW/RINV-T-05/205 ISBN: 0-909016-87-9 September 2005 PREFACE John Townend, Organising Committee Chair Victoria University of Wellington, PO Box 600, Wellington ([email protected]) The 2004 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake and tsunami remind us of the brutal levels of destruction that a large earthquake can wreak. This symposium, held to commemorate the 150th anniversary of the 1855 Wairarapa earthquake, is intended to facilitate discussion between people working on different facets of the problem of understanding and anticipating earthquakes in New Zealand. During planning for this event, the invited speakers were asked to address one or more of four key themes: what happened then; what has happened since; what is happening now; and where should we focus future efforts? As the abstracts in this volume attest, the significance of the 1855 Wairarapa earthquake lies not simply in the dramatic scale of its immediate geological and social effects, but in the much longer-term, ongoing influence it has exerted on research and practice in New Zealand science, engineering, and civil defence and emergency management planning. While the scientific and engineering communities’ understanding of earthquakes and their effects has developed immensely in recent decades, the growth of the wider community’s exposure to those earthquakes has been even more dramatic. The diversity of institutions and disciplines represented in this extended abstracts volume underscores the importance of experts in all fields being aware of what their colleagues elsewhere know and need to know. The organising committee gratefully acknowledges the generous support received from the following organisations, without which this event would not have been held: • The Earthquake Commission (Gold sponsor); • The Institute of Geological & Nuclear Sciences, the Wellington Emergency Management Office (Absolutely Positively Wellington), Greater Wellington Regional Council, and the Ministry of Civil Defence & Emergency Management (Silver sponsors); • Victoria Link Ltd., Victoria University of Wellington, and the International Conference Fund, administered by the Royal Society of New Zealand (Bronze sponsors). We particularly thank David Middleton (General Manager, Earthquake Commission) for his enthusiastic support of this symposium throughout its gestation. We also thank the Institute of Geological & Nuclear Sciences for its targeted sponsorship of student registrations, and Greater Wellington Regional Council for assistance in printing this volume and the accompanying field-trip guide. The 1855 Wairarapa Earthquake Symposium i ORGANISING COMMITTEE John Townend (Chair, Victoria University of Wellington) Dave Brunsdon (Wellington Lifelines Group) Ursula Cochran (Geological Society of New Zealand) Sophie Dalziel (Victoria Link Ltd.) Andrew Jones (Greater Wellington) Rob Langridge (Geological and Nuclear Sciences) Euan Smith (New Zealand Geophysical Society) The committee thanks Suzanne Vintiner and Judith Wayers (Te Papa) for their assistance in organising this event; Penny Murray (GNS) for help in formatting the abstracts; Anita Vallely (Victoria Link Ltd.) for designing the proceedings volume and field-trip guide covers; and Absolutely Organised, particularly Chris Wong Nam and Jill Herman, for handling the registrations and finances (www.absolutelyorganised.co.nz). ii The 1855 Wairarapa Earthquake Symposium PROGRAMME Thursday 8 September (Soundings Theatre, Level 2) Topic Speaker Organisation Start Duration Registration 0800 30 Welcome Cr Ian Greater 0830 10 Buchanan Wellington On the 23rd of January, 1855… [What happened then?] The 1855 January 23 M8+ Wairarapa Gaye Downes GNS 0840 40 earthquake — what contemporary accounts tell us about it Co-seismic slip during the 1855 earthquake, Tim Little Victoria 0920 20 southern Wairarapa Fault, New Zealand University Wairarapa Fault rupture — vertical John Begg GNS 0940 20 deformation in 1855 and a history of similar events from Turakirae Head Fault slip in the 1855 Wairarapa earthquake John Beavan GNS 1000 20 based on new and reassessed vertical motion observations: did slip occur on the subduction interface? Earthquakes from fault rupture: the scientific Rick Sibson University of 1020 20 impact of the 1855 Wairarapa earthquake Otago Tea 1040 20 Regional tectonic context [What we know about why it happened] Active faulting in the Wellington region Kelvin GNS 1100 20 Berryman The region’s paleoseismic record Russ Van GNS 1120 20 Dissen The southern end of the Wairarapa Fault, and Phil Barnes NIWA 1140 20 surrounding structures in Cook Strait Wairarapa and Wellington earthquakes: past, Martin Reyners GNS 1200 20 present, and future Lunch 1220 60 Earthquake hazards [Specific hazards, now and in the future] Strong ground shaking in the 1855 Wairarapa David Dowrick GNS 1320 20 earthquake Landslides and liquefaction effects caused by Graham Hancox GNS 1340 20 the 1855 Wairarapa earthquake: then and now Tsunami: curiosity or calamity? Rob Bell NIWA 1400 20 Post-earthquake fire and the 1855 Wairarapa Geoff Thomas Victoria 1420 20 earthquake University Tea 1440 20 Assessing hazards in the future [New developments] Earthquakes: their strategic importance in Peter Kingsbury MCDEM 1500 20 CDEM Group plans Earthquake risk: how bad and how often? Warwick Smith GNS 1520 20 Regional riskscape model: progress on Rob Bell NIWA 1540 20 developing a multi-hazard risk toolbox Discussion on hazards research: priorities for the next five years Selected speakers as discussion catalysts 1600 40 Session chairs to summarise the day’s 1640 10 highlights Drinks 1715 Te Papa Spring Lecture Series (free public event) The 1855 Wairarapa earthquake: what if it 3 × 15 min presentations and panel 1830 75 happened tomorrow? discussion: Gaye Downes, Richard Sharpe (Beca), David Johnston (GNS), and Chair (Hamish Campbell) The 1855 Wairarapa Earthquake Symposium iii Friday 9 September (Soundings Theatre, Level 2) Topic Speaker Organisation Start Duration Impact on humans and the built environment Humans The 1855 earthquake: societal impact and Hamish GNS 0840 20 response in Wellington Campbell Individuals' response to natural hazard events John McClure Victoria 0900 20 University Understanding the vulnerability of Erica Dalziell University of 0920 20 organisations Canterbury The built environment The promise of destruction — urban design in Chris McDonald Victoria 0940 20 response to past and future earthquakes University The earthquake's impact on property Graeme Blick LINZ 1000 20 boundaries Key developments: seismic isolation Bill Robinson Robinson Seismic 1020 20 Tea 1040 20 Issues associated with making existing Rob Jury NZSEE Study 1100 20 buildings safe Group Issues associated with the design and Des Bull University of 1120 20 construction of new buildings Canterbury As safe as houses? Stuart Thurston BRANZ 1140 20 Taking natural disaster events into account for Warwick Wellington 1200 20 transportation planning: time for a new Walbran Lifelines Group approach The role of communications in earthquakes Brian Potter Telecom NZ 1220 20 The vulnerability of lifelines to liquefaction: a George Butcher Wairarapa Eng. 1240 20 Wairarapa perspective Lifelines Assoc. Lunch 1300 60 Managing the event [Readiness, response and recovery] Managing the event — a regional CDEM Rian van GW/Wellington 1400 20 Group perspective Schalkwyk CDEM Group National Controller’s perspective Mike O’Leary MCDEM 1420 20 Central government’s role in disaster Pat Helm DPMC 1440 20 management Understanding the scope of the recovery Sarah Norman MCDEM 1500 20 process Tea 1520 20 1855, then and now — an EQC perspective Doug Bent EQC 1540 40 on the 1855 South Wairarapa earthquake Lance Dixon Business response and recovery after major Karen Stephens Resilience 1620 20 earthquakes — what can we expect? Another today: what effects would the 1855 earthquake have now? Selected speakers as discussion catalysts 1640 30 Session chairs to summarise the day’s 1710 10 highlights Saturday 10 September Start Meeting point Event Presenters Full-day field-trip along the Wairarapa Tim Little, John Begg 0800 Te Papa forecourt Fault focussing on fault slip during the 1855 earthquake (pre-registration required) Waterfront walking field-trips: earthquake Hamish Campbell, Richard 1100 Information Desk, impacts and mitigation measures in and Sharpe 1230 Level 2 around Te Papa (free public event) 1400 Water storage display (free public event) Dave Brunsdon, John 1000 Information Desk, Morrison, Rian van Schalkwyk Level 2 iv The 1855 Wairarapa Earthquake Symposium CONTENTS Preface............................................................................................................................... i J. Townend Organising committee.....................................................................................................ii Programme.....................................................................................................................iii
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