The Sheffield Plan: Citywide Options for Growth to 2034
2. Challenges and Opportunities for Sheffield to 2034
he future presents many opportunities for Sheffield, yet there are also a number of T challenges our city is facing. Sheffield is widely connected to the rest of the country and the world and, therefore, broader national and global trends will have an impact on the city. The Sheffield Plan will have to grasp opportunities and respond to these challenges to help make the city successful, distinctive, inclusive, vibrant and sustainable1.
This chapter sets out the key challenges and opportunities for Sheffield between now and 2034.
1 Sheffield City Strategy, 2010-15 Challenges and Opportunities for Sheffield to 2034 5 The Sheffield Plan: Citywide Options for Growth to 2034
Key Facts
Sheffield’s population is projected to rise by 62,000 people between now and 2034, if current trends persist. Population rises may be higher if economic growth continues.
Sheffield’s population is getting older – by 2034, projections suggest that nearly 1 in 5 people living in the city will be over 65. The population of those over 85 is predicted to double.
18.3% of Sheffield’s workers are employed in the financial and business sector, compared to 24.5% in Manchester, and 33.6% in London.
Gross Value Added, the measure of productivity, is £3bn lower than the national average in Sheffield City Region.
27,000 people work in the Creative and Digital Industries in Sheffield City Region.
There are around 60,000 students at the city’s two universities.
On average, every day 63,000 people commute to Sheffield.
Evidence shows that between 2014 and 2034, between 40,000 and 46,000 homes are needed in Sheffield – that’s between 2,000 and 2,300 each year on average.
Winter rainfall is predicted to increase in the city by 14% from 2009 to 2050.
84.9% of the over-16 population in Sheffield have used the internet at some point in their lives, compared to 87.2% of the wider UK population.
Challenges and Opportunities for Sheffield to 2034 6
The Sheffield Plan: Citywide Options for Growth to 2034
2.2 Stimulating Economic Growth and Job Creation public health are relatively important sectors. There is significantly less representation in professional and Sheffield’s economy is changing and growing after a business services in Sheffield than nationally. period of lower growth due to the global recession. The city faces a range of challenges in shifting to a 16% more dynamic economy that is responsive to change, and that provides well paid, rewarding jobs to the 14% workforce. 12% Sheffield still has a relatively high level of manufacturing jobs compared to other large cities, 10% and a large proportion of its workforce is employed in the public sector (see Table 1). Nationally, it is 8% predicted that the country will need fewer manufacturing jobs over the next 10 years, but an 6% increase of financial and business related jobs2. 4% Greater Sheffield Leeds London 2% Manchester
Manufacturing 9% 8.8% 7.1% 2.3% 0%
Financial and 18.3% 24.5% 22.3% 33.6% Professional Public 35.1% 26.9% 28.7% 22.6% Administration
Table 1: Percentage of Workforce in Different Sectors, Nomis, 2014 Sheffield Yorkshire & Humber UK However, Figure 1 shows that, compared to the national figures, the proportion of manufacturing jobs is Figure 1: Key Employment Sectors, 2015, Source: Sheffield and only slightly higher in Sheffield, but education and Rotherham Joint Employment Land Review, 2015
2 UKCES, 2014 Challenges and Opportunities for Sheffield to 2034 7 The Sheffield Plan: Citywide Options for Growth to 2034
Other key issues for the city’s economy are as follows: most deprived to 32,790th most deprived in England in terms of educational attainment6. Unemployment has dropped in the city over the past two years but is still higher than the national A key challenge for Sheffield’s economy will be to figure, particularly in terms of youth make the step up to national levels of economic activity unemployment3. and productivity through transforming its economic base towards higher growth and more productive The measure of economic productivity, Gross sectors. This is likely to require shifts in skills training Value Added (GVA), shows Sheffield to be below as well as new infrastructure to support economic the national average. Across the wider Sheffield growth7. City Region, GVA is £3bn lower than the national average (excluding London) illustrating difficulties in Opportunities for a Growing Economy moving towards a more productive economy4. A growing advanced manufacturing sector, with Wages in the city have increased in the past few more apprenticeships and work-based training than years, but at a lower rate than other parts of the other large cities, mainly located around the country5. Sheffield Business Park/Advanced Manufacturing Park on the Sheffield-Rotherham border8. Skills levels are also somewhat lower in Sheffield and the wider City Region than other areas, with Two universities, with around 60,000 students who higher numbers of residents with no qualifications can help meet the requirement to fill the identified than the national average. need for 30,000 high skilled jobs in the Sheffield City Region. Latest statistics show that Sheffield is the 41st most deprived local authority area for educational Highly accessible and well-connected spaces for attainment. There are also sharp divides in new firms to locate, making Sheffield a key location attainment, with areas of the city ranging from 46th for economic growth in the City Region and more widely. 3 Sheffield Corporate Plan, 2015-18 4 Sheffield City Region Strategic Economic Plan, 2014-24 5 Median wages in Sheffield for workers in the city are approximately £390 per week, but are over £400 per week in Leeds and Birmingham, 6 ONS, English Indices of Deprivation, 2015 and over £450 per week in Manchester (Annual Employment Survey, 7 Sheffield City Region Strategic Economic Plan, 2014-24 2014) 8 Sheffield Corporate Plan, 2015-2018 Challenges and Opportunities for Sheffield to 2034 8 The Sheffield Plan: Citywide Options for Growth to 2034
A recognised centre for creative and digital 700,000 industries, with around 27,000 employed in the creative and digital industries in the City Region, 600,000 with the large majority being based in Sheffield9. 500,000
Increased focus on skills development in Sheffield 400,000 City Region following the devolution deal announced in October 2015, with locally controlled 300,000 funding for enhancing training provision in this area. 200,000 2.3 Meeting the Needs of a Rising Population and Housing the City’s Residents 100,000 0 The population of Sheffield has risen significantly in the past 10 years, after a decline from the 1970s to the 1990s. Figure 2 shows the recent increase in population, which grew by 7.5% between 2001 and Figure 2: Sheffield Population 1801 to 2031 (projected)10 2011 and is projected to rise to 625,000 by 2034 if recent past trends continue. A key task for the The future population is likely to be: Sheffield Plan will be to decide where new housing will be located to provide homes for this growing On average older, with 20% of Sheffield residents population. being over 65 by 2034 and a doubling of residents over 85 within the next 20 years (See Figure 3).
More likely to stay in Sheffield – whilst there is currently a net outflow of people moving to outside 11 the city, this trend is decreasingF .
More likely to move to Sheffield from abroad, with approximately 6,000 people moving to Sheffield
10 Sheffield City Council and ONS 9 Creative Sheffield statistics 11 ONS, Internal Migration, 2014 Challenges and Opportunities for Sheffield to 2034 9 The Sheffield Plan: Citywide Options for Growth to 2034
each year, many of whom are students who leave 12 Sheffield after their studiesF .
More likely to live in the City Centre. Over the past 15 years the greatest rises in population have been in the City Centre and some areas to the east of the city. Some areas in the south of Sheffield have lost population (See Figure 4, p.11).
Figure 3 shows the predicted population growth by age in Sheffield from 2012 to 2034.
70
60
50
40 30
20
Popultaion (thousands) 10
- 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+
Age 2034 forecast 2012 population Figure 3: Predicted population growth, 2012 - 2034
12 There were 12,000 non-UK students at university in Sheffield in 13/14; an additional 5,000 compared to 10 years ago. The visas of all non-EU students (10,000) expire on course completion. Challenges and Opportunities for Sheffield to 2034 10 The Sheffield Plan: Citywide Options for Growth to 2034
20,0007,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
-1,000
-2,000
Figure 4: Population Change in Sheffield Wards 2001-201113 271,801 by 203414. This rise of 14.7% is higher than As the city’s population has grown, so has the number the overall rise in population as a result of more people of households in the city. Figure 5 (p. 12) shows that living on their own in the city, as the population ages after 2003, the city’s households have increased to a and a greater number of younger people migrate to current figure of 236,865, and are projected to rise to Sheffield. These factors mean that the average
13 ONS, Sheffield City Council 14 DCLG 2012 Sub-national Household Projections Challenges and Opportunities for Sheffield to 2034 11 The Sheffield Plan: Citywide Options for Growth to 2034
household size has got smaller and Government have impacted on how many homes have been built. projections suggest this trend could continue. On average, Sheffield has built 1,674 new homes each year for the past 10 years but, in order to meet the needs of a growing population and to support economic growth, more housing needs to be built each 300,000 year in Sheffield and, perhaps, in adjoining local authority areas. 250,000
200,000 3,000
150,000 2,500
100,000 2,000 50,000 1,500 0
1,000
1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 1991 500
Figure 5: Number of households in Sheffield, actual and projected, 1991 15 0 to 2034F These trends lead to a big challenge for the city – to build more housing in the right locations. This consultation sets out a number of options for where we Figure 6: Total Housing Completions in Sheffield 2004/5 to 2014/15 might be able to build new housing (see Section 5.4). (numbers of units) The past 5 years have seen new housing built in the city, though this has been at a lower rate than the previous period until last year (see Figure 6). A range of factors, most notably, the past economic recession
15 DCLG Sub-national Household Projections, 2012 Challenges and Opportunities for Sheffield to 2034 12 The Sheffield Plan: Citywide Options for Growth to 2034
19 Opportunities from a growing population Winter rainfall will increase by 14% F .
Compared to many other countries, the UK’s ‘second If these projections are correct, the changing climate 16 tier’F cities are smaller and, in redressing this will have a significant impact on the city, with key imbalance, and an increase in population and jobs in problems likely to be damage to buildings and cities such as Sheffield would help meet national infrastructure, buildings overheating, maintaining water needs for economic growth. In addition, whilst the supply, and health impacts on vulnerable groups. ageing population of Sheffield presents some Increased rainfall is likely to affect Sheffield challenges in terms of delivering specialist housing and significantly as it is a hilly city which means that services, it also presents opportunities in terms of a surface water runs off and gathers in valley bottoms more active older population who can play a major role more quickly. It also has a legacy of development in in society17. flood risk areas and post-industrial buildings which are more likely to be damaged by severe weather. 2.4 Tackling Climate Change, Managing Energy and Resources More broadly, global trends indicate that energy prices will rise over the period to 2034, leading to issues of Evidence suggests that Sheffield’s climate is changing continuing fuel poverty20, and increased transport 18 more rapidly than at any time in the past 125 years 1 . costs. Other resources, such as public open space, Projections suggest that by 2050: are critical to a good quality of life, and pressures to maintain them against a backdrop of continued Average temperatures could rise by 1.9 degrees austerity will be a key challenge. Celsius.
On average there will be five and a half more days per year when temperatures rise above 28 degrees Celsius.
Summer rainfall will decrease by 25%.
16 Second tier cities are those smaller cities that are not major ‘global megacities’ (such as London, New York and Shanghai), but fall into a smaller group of cities. See State of Sheffield Report, 2015. 19 All figures, Yorkshire Futures, 2009, Weathering the Storm: the 17 See ‘Sheffield: A City for All Ages’, 2012 Yorkshire and Humber Regional Adaptation Strategy 18 Sheffield Local Climate Impacts Profile, 2009 20 See Sheffield Fairness Commission Report, 2014 Challenges and Opportunities for Sheffield to 2034 13 The Sheffield Plan: Citywide Options for Growth to 2034
23 Opportunities for Sheffield as a Green City for women of 81.8 years F , which is less than the national average. Sheffield can be a forerunner in tackling climate change, through taking actions such as creating Projections show that the number of people with 21 and maintaining Green Infrastructure F , and dementia and obesity is set to rise. ensuring new development is environmentally sustainable. If shifts do not happen in how we travel around the city, air pollution may increase, especially in the The city can promote job creation in low carbon main transport corridors such as the Lower Don technologies, a sector identified as crucial to Valley, which are projected to be more heavily 22 increasing GVA in the Sheffield City Region F . congested unless infrastructure improvements are 24 madeF . 2.5 Promoting Health and Wellbeing Opportunities for Sheffield as a Healthy City The quality of our neighbourhoods and environments, and the opportunities afforded by them, has significant Sheffield has a number of opportunities for promoting impacts on our health. Air pollution, poor quality health, with the potential for the city’s population to housing, and lack of open space and sports facilities become increasingly active: can all hinder people’s ability to live a healthy lifestyle. Conversely, neighbourhoods with good housing, ‘Outdoor’ activities are popular in the city, with sufficient green space and other community facilities excellent facilities for climbing, mountain biking, can all help people to increase and maintain their walking, and running. Participation rates for all health and wellbeing. major outdoor leisure activities are higher than the national average25, and the City Council is The statistics on health in the city reveal an developing plans to enhance the facilities and average life expectancy for men of 78.1 years and reputation of the city for outdoor sports26.
21 National Planning Policy Guidance defines Green Infrastructure as ‘a network of multi-functional green space, urban and rural, which is capable 23 Sheffield Joint Strategic Needs Assessment, 2013 of delivering a wide range of environmental and quality of life benefits for 24 Sheffield City Region FLUTE Model Outputs, 2014-2024 local communities. Green infrastructure includes parks, open spaces, 25 Sheffield Hallam University, 2014 Valuing the contribution of the playing fields, woodlands, street trees, allotments and private gardens.’ outdoor economy in Sheffield report 22 Sheffield City Region Strategic Economic Plan, 2014-24 26See Sheffield: The Outdoor City Challenges and Opportunities for Sheffield to 2034 14 The Sheffield Plan: Citywide Options for Growth to 2034
The city is long recognised as one of the ‘greenest’ On average, Sheffield receives 63,000 commuters 27 in the UK, with over 2 million trees and a range of every day, the highest number in the City RegionF . high quality open spaces, providing opportunities to develop active lifestyles. Sheffield has the lowest proportion in the City Region of residents who work elsewhere at 18%28. Developing the cycling infrastructure in the city would help to reduce congestion, and bring The car continues to dominate commuting patterns Sheffield’s rate of commuter cycling up to the in Sheffield, accounting for at least one third of all Council’s target of 10% of journeys by 2025, journeys, with bus travel the next most common 29 yielding health improvements in the working form of commuting at 8% F . population. Journey times in Sheffield in rush hour are Encouraging low emission vehicles and public comparable with other major urban areas (except transport that will reduce air pollution across the London)30. If either shifts in transport away from city and particularly in the City Centre and Lower the car, or infrastructure improvements, are not Don Valley. made, projections show that by 2024 many key routes into the city will be heavily congested. For 2.6 Connecting the City Through Better Transport example, the A6178 through the Lower Don Valley and Digital Networks is projected to see a 154% increase in delays from 2014 to 202431. As the city’s economy grows, a significant issue will be managing the increase in journeys from home to work. Connections to other major cities are critical to the The nature of economic growth will affect commuting; if growth of the city and the surrounding region’s the city attracts higher skilled jobs, commuting from economy32. Whilst improvements in journey times outside the city is likely to increase, unless there is a to major cities, such as Leeds, have improved, rise in the number of residents with these skills. Aside from transport, the city will also need to develop its digital connectivity in order to support economic growth ambitions. 27 Census, 2011 28 Census, 2011 29 Census, 2011 30 Department for Transport 2015 Congestion and Reliability Statistics 31 Sheffield City Region, FLUTE Model Outputs, 2014-2024 32 Sheffield City Region Strategic Economic Plan, 2014 Challenges and Opportunities for Sheffield to 2034 15 The Sheffield Plan: Citywide Options for Growth to 2034
journey times to other cities have not decreased An enhanced public transport network for the City significantly in the past decade. Region with high quality vehicles and more frequent services on core routes. Whilst fast broadband connectivity is broadly available in the urban area of Sheffield, connectivity Considering more innovative ways of managing the is not as developed in the rural areas. 84.9% of the highway network, for example providing dedicated over-16 population in Sheffield have used the routes for journeys by public transport, walking, internet at some point in their lives, compared to cycling and motor vehicle to reduce delays. 87.2% of the wider UK population. In addition, connectivity is lower amongst more deprived Park and Ride on the periphery of the city, households. National figures show that whereas providing faster journey options by switching from 99% of people with over £500 per week income cars at key gateway locations. have ever used the internet, this falls to 94.8% of those with incomes less than £200 per week33. A new tram-train connection between Sheffield and Rotherham. A key challenge will be how we connect new areas of housing to the city and to the places we work by Extending the tram network. We think priorities sustainable forms of transport that are cost effective should include routes to serve the city’s hospitals and quick, and how we accommodate an increasing as well as serving potential housing growth areas number of journeys in a safe and sustainable way. and employment areas.
Opportunities for a more connected city Initiatives such as integrated ticketing and e- ticketing for public transport, which are supported in Despite the challenges presented above, a number of the Northern Transport Strategy34. opportunities can be identified that will enhance the city’s connectivity and sustainability, including: Building on work to develop the city’s cycling facilities, including a new bike hire scheme, bike Developing new and faster connections between hubs in the City Centre and a new citywide cycle the City Centres of Sheffield, Leeds and network. Manchester, by both road and rail, including a High Speed 2 railway station in Sheffield.
33 ONS, Internet Access Quarterly Update, Q1 2014 34 Northern Transport Strategy, 2015 Challenges and Opportunities for Sheffield to 2034 16 The Sheffield Plan: Citywide Options for Growth to 2034
Continued investment in Key Bus Routes to markets that address the needs of a knowledge improve journey reliability, through the Sheffield economy37. Bus Partnership, which has a target to increase overall patronage by 2% per year. Sheffield has a smaller retail centre than comparable cities, partly due to Meadowhall acting as a major Investment through the South Yorkshire Superfast destination for shopping in the City Region. Efforts to Broadband Project to increase high speed internet bring in new shopping and leisure development to access to 95% of the region by 2017. Sheffield City Centre are being renewed, with the launch of the Sheffield Retail Quarter, and major new Sheffield ‘Smart City’ initiatives, especially the investments in The Moor. All these trends raise a Sheffield Smart Lab35 that will seek innovation in series of challenges for how the Sheffield Plan shapes delivering better services to residents and change and supports our City Centre and district/local businesses. centres across Sheffield:
2.7 Responding to our Changing City and Retail How to integrate new retail development with a Patterns wider range of uses in the City Centre.
The ways we shop are changing rapidly. We are now How to balance leisure uses, and particularly the shopping more frequently online, with approximately night time economy, with a growing residential use 15% (by value) of all shopping done online in 201536, of the City Centre. and this has implications for the type of physical stores we require. City Centres are now more heavily How to balance demand for out-of-town shopping promoted as destinations with a range of shopping and with the need to regenerate city and district/local leisure activities, and our patterns of using centres. supermarkets are changing. This is coupled with more residents now living in city centres and changing office How to support district and local centres in providing a range of shops and services that meet the needs of all groups in society.
Opportunities for better city and district/local centres
35 See Sheffield Smart Lab 37 NLP, 2015 Workspace Futures: The Changing Dynamics of Office 36 Centre for Retail Research, 2015 Online Retailing Report Locations Challenges and Opportunities for Sheffield to 2034 17 The Sheffield Plan: Citywide Options for Growth to 2034
There are a number of opportunities for the City Centre east and west of Sheffield. Such inequality can hold and retailing more widely across the urban area: back the economic growth of the city and the viability of district and local centres, as well as diminishing life The Sheffield Retail Quarter in the City Centre is chances for many citizens. planned to create a more consolidated core retail area, with modern quality retail space that attracts Opportunities to make Sheffield a fairer city higher quality retailers to match Sheffield’s regional role. This should facilitate more visitor visits to Despite the challenges of inequality in the city, there Sheffield, increasing the amount of money spent are a number of opportunities for Sheffield to tackle locally. these issues in the short to medium term:
Opportunities for more independent retailers Sheffield’s Fairness Commission and the especially those serving specific markets, may commitment from City partners to address become more important, with scope for inequality in the city provides the basis for tackling development in district centres which are relatively these issues, and sets a framework in which the close to the City Centre. Sheffield Plan can help to direct growth in ways that meet the needs of all in the city. 2.8 Making Sheffield a Fairer Place An understanding that an equal city will provide the As the Sheffield Fairness Commission notes ‘Sheffield basis for a stronger, more sustainable city, which is is not a city in which everybody has the same chances better able to meet future challenges is framed in a in life…there are deep and persistent inequalities range of strategies39. between different communities and groups’38. In particular, these inequalities are spatial in nature – A long experience of regeneration in many parts of some neighbourhoods in the city are very wealthy by the city that has significantly improved their national standards, whilst others are some of the most fortunes, and which may further reduce inequality deprived in the country. Whilst the overall level of between areas, including through schemes by the poverty and deprivation in the city is not at the scale of Sheffield Housing Company and plans to build new some major cities, the differences between council housing in the city. neighbourhoods can be stark, particularly between the
38 Sheffield Fairness Commission, 2013 Fairness Commission Main 39 Sheffield Corporate Plan, 2015-18; Sheffield Fairness Commission, Report 2013 Fairness Commission Main Report Challenges and Opportunities for Sheffield to 2034 18 The Sheffield Plan: Citywide Options for Growth to 2034
New house building provides an opportunity to improve the range of housing available and can help to ensure that homes are provided for people on low incomes and those with specific housing needs.
Consultation questions
Q2: (a) Have we identified the right challenges for Sheffield between now and 2034? (b) If not, what other challenges does the Sheffield Plan need to address?
Q3: (a) Have we identified the right opportunities for Sheffield between now and 2034? (b) If not, what other opportunities could the Sheffield Plan support?
Challenges and Opportunities for Sheffield to 2034 19