Improving Hurricane Intensity Forecasts with Gliders

Catherine R. Edwards, UGA/Skidaway Institute of Oceanography Travis Miles, Rutgers University Gustavo Goni, NOAA/AOML (lead) Navy, NOAA, academic partners Improving Hurricane Intensity Forecasts with Gliders

Volunteer/leveraged partnerships

Images: AP, Getty Images, Savannah Morning News, SC Public Radio

Road map

The intensity problem

Hurricane Irene: 2011

Hurricane Florence: 2018

Next steps Reduction in hurricane track errors Cones from the past

1990 CONE 1970 CONE The intensity problem As the air cools it flows outward, but also down in the Eye Center

Warm air rises rapidly

Warm ocean transfers heat and moisture into the atmosphere What affects hurricane intensity?

Courtesy NOAA/AOML What affects hurricane intensity?

Ocean heat feeds hurricanes Subsurface heat matters

Sea Surface Temperature (SST)

but clouds can be problematic Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP): T > 26 deg C Courtesy Rutgers, WHOI What affects hurricane intensity? HurricaneSalinity matters,Katrina, 2005too!

Goni et al., 2019 How can we (oceanographers) improve intensity forecasts?

Represent the ocean better with:

3-D temperature to estimate TCHP

3-D salinity to estimate mixing

Capture processes too small for hurricane models

Real-time data How forecasts are made – and how gliders inform models

Collect data

Run weather, ocean models Analyze data, models

Forecast issued to communities

http://hurricanescience.org/science/forecast/forecasting/forecastprocess/ Hurricane Irene August 28, 2011 NOAA/NHC Damage: >$15 Billion, #15. Track Accurate; Intensity Over-predicted. Avila & Cangialosi, 2012, Tropical Cyclone Report A view from the RUCOOL

L-Band & X-Band Satellite 46 Site CODAR >500 Glider Ocean & Atmos. MARACOOS is an Receivers Network Deployments Forecasts IOOS Certified RICE

Glider Lab ROMS Ocean WRF Atmospheric Forecast Forecast Satellite SST Pre - Irene Irene Post - Irene 11C max Cooling Difference Satellite

Lentz et al., 2017 SST Pre August Cold Pool - Irene Irene Temperature Climatology Post - Irene August Cold Pool Temperature Climatology 11C max Cooling Difference COSEEnow.net Pre-Irene Post-Irene Difference 11C max WHAT? Cooling

Satellite SST

WHEN? Glider Temperature WHY? HF Eye Passage Radar Currents Ahead-of-Eye-Center Cooling in Irene: Ocean Modeling

Rutgers ROMS on the ESPreSSO domain • http://www.myroms.org/espresso/ • 36 Levels, ~5 km resolution, output hourly • HYCOM-NCODA Boundary Conditions • NCEP North American Mesoscale (NAM) 12km 3 hourly Wind forcing Time

Nature Communications (2016) HurricaneHurricane Irene ROMS Ocean Forecast Irene SST Difference (Before-After) Satellite AVHRR vs. ROMS Model

(After – Before) SST Difference Gliders improve wind, storm surge models (Irene)

Ocean model Hurricane wind model D (storm surge)

Without Without gliders gliders

With With gliders gliders Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential – Ocean Impacts Map

But TCHP in not universal…. Irene & Sandy $87 B Glenn et al., 2016 Nature Comms Seroka et al., 2016 MWR Seroka et al. 2017 JGR Oceans Miles et al. 2017 JGR Oceans Watkins Ph.D. Thesis Coakley Ph.D. Thesis Ramos-Valle Ph.D. Thesis

AOML Glider Program Many, many Goni et al… papers Regionally-Specific Essential Ocean Features Affect Atlantic Hurricane Intensity

Seasonal Stratification, Cold Pool

Gulf Stream, Shelf Loop Current, Eddies, Fresh Water

Warm Pool, Upper Ocean Heat & Heat Content, Fresh Water Fresh Water Inflow Barrier Layers North Carolina SECOORA LEJ3 Wave LEJ3

ILM2 Wave

ILM2 ILM3

South Carolina SUN2 SUN2 Wave Glider

CAP2 WQ Station

FRP2 Observatory Georgia

Greys Reef Catherine Edwards, SkIO/UGA

E STRE

STR Chad Lembke, USF

ULF STRE STRE ULF ULF ULF U

Shellpoint GU GU G GULF G GU GU G G GULF STREAM GULF Harvey Seim, UNC APK Florida Fumin Zhang, GT FHP Ruoying He, NCSU Clam Bayou c12 Buoy or Coastal Station c10 Installed High Frequency Radar BCP Data available via Planned High Frequency Radar c13 secoora.org, Probable New High Frequency Radar

LOOP CURRENT LOOP Glider surveys!Glider Surveys Glider DAC Coastal Camera Location gliders.ioos.us 3-5 glider deployments per year, 2019-2020: additional 2 HurricaneGliders Hurricane Florence, September 2018 Approached NC coast as category 4 hurricane

Weakened from peak (~18:00 UTC 9/11/2019)

Stalled over NC, causing significant rainfall, flooding

A. Guest, ESA/NASA ISS

Intensity 130 kt peak, ~80 kt at landfall

Minimum pressure 937 mb, 952 mb at landfall SST

Stewart and Berg, NHC, 2019 Hurricane Florence deployments

Glider: Ramses, deployed Fri. 9/7 off Cape Hatteras

Glider: Pelagia, deployed Mon. 9/10 off Hilton Head

Glider: Bass, recovered Wed. 9/5 off Wilmington, NC

’ Ramses, off Cape Hatteras @ Florence peak

9/11/2018 T S

Stratification underpredictedImages courtesy M. , salinityAristizabal overallVargas, Rutgers high, GOFS3.1>>3.0 Pelagia, off SC/GA border @ Florence peak

9/11/2018 T S

AVHRR SST, Oct. 6, 2018 Stratification overpredicted, salinity overall high; GOFS3.1>3.0 Ramses temperature time series

glider position, MM/DD GMT 36 09/29 Along track temperature, deg C 35.9 09/27

35.8 09/25

glider position, MM/DD GMT 36 35.7 09/29 mixing? 09/23 35.9 09/27

35.8 35.6 09/25 09/21

35.7 09/23

35.6 35.5 09/21 09/19

35.5 09/19 lat (deg) lat (deg) 35.4 35.4 09/17 09/17

35.3 09/15

35.2 35.3 09/13 09/15

35.1 09/11

09/09 35 35.207−Sep−2018 12:53:38 − 29−Sep−2018 08:36:58 09/13

−75.7 −75.6 −75.5 −75.4 −75.3 −75.2 −75.1 −75 lon (deg) 35.1 09/11 GMT 2018/10/19 01:17

09/09 35 07−Sep−2018 12:53:38 − 29−Sep−2018 08:36:58

−75.7 −75.6 −75.5 −75.4 −75.3 −75.2 −75.1 −75 lon (deg) Time series courtesy M. Aristizabal Vargas, Rutgers GS and Hatteras Fronts, vertical structure better but scale challenging

GMT 2018/10/19 01:17 Getting the Gulf Stream right RU-COOL SST

Sep 11 Sep 19 Gulf Stream front defines our coast, from FL to NC

Getting fronts Sep 22 Sep 26 right is essential for ocean forecast Gulf Stream edge (Bass)

Stratification underpredicted, GOFS3.1>3.0 but both modelsAVHRR unable SST, Oct. to 6, 2018resolve small-scale variability Time series courtesy M. Aristizabal Vargas, Rutgers Florence

Helene

Isaac

~30 Hurricane Sentinel Gliders from the Navy, NOAA, NSF, Academic & Industry Partners reporting ocean conditions through the U.S. IOOS Glider Data Assembly Center (DAC) ahead of Hurricanes Florence, Isaac and Helene on September 11, 2018. Hurricane Glider Picket Line Concept of Operations 1) All gliders monitor Essential Ocean Features 2) Some gliders document Essential Ocean Processes during a storm 3) Full glider community involvement enabled by IOOS Glider DAC

Since HURRICANE Since 1946 GLIDERS 2018 Glider Tracks & ARGO Floats 2018 Hurricane Season

Total number of Glider profiles = 123335 Total number of Argo profiles = 17264 1/3 dedicated 2/3 volunteers Glider Data Flow: Operators > IOOS Glider DAC > NDBC > GTS > Ops Centers Glider Tracks & ARGO Floats 2019 Hurricane Season

Total number of Glider profiles = 103511 Total number of Argo profiles = 13164 1/2 dedicated 1/2 volunteers Glider Data Flow: Operators > IOOS Glider DAC > NDBC > GTS > Ops Centers HurricaneGliders 2020 (getting ready!)

20-25 gliders

Picket lines

Targeted deploys

Capture Gulf Stream, essential ocean features North Atlantic Hurricanes Ocean Forecast Work Flow Global GOFS 3.1/NCODA System “It Starts With Us” NCODA Incremental Insertion Window Nowcast 7-day frcst 0Z 12Z 0Z

Nowcast 1-day frcst 7-day frcst 0Z 12Z 0Z 0Z 0Z 12Z 0Z 0Z 0Z Nowcast 1-day frcst 2-day frcst 7-day frcst 0Z 12Z 0Z 0Z 0Z

Coming in 2020 - RTOFS-DA Global RTOFS

Regional HYCOM IC used for 2019 Operational HMON/HYCOM 2019 Experimental HWRF/HYCOM 2019 Experimental HWRF/POM

2019 Operational HWRF/POM initialized with ocean climatology modified by feature models Beyond hurricanes

Sting jets

Bomb cyclones

Other weather systems Sea breeze

Images courtesy: NOAA, @NWSBlacksburg, @WFLAamanda Larger role for gliders (and the ocean) in weather prediction

= Tropical Cyclone Research Partnerships Asia- Pacific

Drawn from an expanding global network of 58 institutions

Thank you!

Indian Ocean Questions?

Katia Irma

Jose

GOES-16 imagery 9/8/2017 10:45Z