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An Analysis of the Potential Costs and Consequences of a Hurricane Impacting the Virginia Beach-Norfolk- Newport News Metropolitan Area

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An Analysis of the Potential Costs and Consequences of a Hurricane Impacting the Virginia Beach-Norfolk- Newport News Metropolitan Area AN ANALYSIS OF THE POTENTIAL COSTS AND CONSEQUENCES OF A HURRICANE IMPACTING THE VIRGINIA BEACH-NORFOLK- NEWPORT NEWS METROPOLITAN AREA PARTNERS CCRFR Report 9 | May 2019 AN ANALYSIS OF THE POTENTIAL COSTS AND CONSEQUENCES OF A HURRICANE IMPACTING THE VIRGINIA BEACH-NORFOLK- NEWPORT NEWS METROPOLITAN AREA Robert McNab Sheila Hutt Professor, Department of Economics GIS Technician, Information Technology Services Director, Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Tim Komarek Vinod Agarwal Assistant Professor, Department of Economics Professor, Strome College of Business Old Dominion University Deputy Director, Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Old Dominion University George McLeod Assistant Director, Information Technology Services Barbara Blake Old Dominion University Chief Administrative Officer, Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Emily Steinhilber Old Dominion University Research Assistant Professor, Commonwealth Center for Recurrent Flooding Resiliency Old Dominion University ADDITIONAL PARTNERS Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Norfolk, Virginia https://www.ceapodu.com/ CCRFR Report 9 | May 2019 | floodingresiliency.org COMMONWEALTH CENTER FOR RECURRENT FLOODING RESILIENCY TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary ............................................................................5 The Research Collaborative. 7 Old Dominion University ................................................................7 Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy (The Dragas Center). 7 Commonwealth Center for Recurrent Flooding Resiliency (CCRFR) .....................7 Faculty and Research Staff Biographies and Qualifications ..................................8 Robert McNab ...........................................................................8 Vinod Agarwal ...........................................................................8 Barabara Blake ...........................................................................8 Sheila Hutt ...............................................................................8 Tim Komarek. 8 George Mcleod ..........................................................................9 Emily Steinhilber. 9 Introduction ...................................................................................10 Recent Major Storms and Hurricanes in the United States .....................................14 Hurricanes in Virginia and Hampton Roads ....................................................17 The Changing Demographics of Virginia ......................................................21 Physical Damage ..............................................................................26 Wind Damage ..........................................................................26 Water Damage. .28 COMMONWEALTH CENTER FOR RECURRENT FLOODING RESILIENCY TABLE OF CONTENTS The Economic Impact of a Hurricane Striking Hampton Roads ................................31 The Best of the Worst: A Hurricane Harvey Event .......................................32 Hurricane Katrina: How Bad Could It Get for Hampton Roads? .........................33 Final Thoughts .................................................................................39 COMMONWEALTH CENTER FOR RECURRENT FLOODING RESILIENCY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Hurricanes, by their very nature, are uncertain events. While no major (Category 3 or higher) hurricane has struck the Commonwealth since 1851, the hurricane of 1821 resulted in significant storm surge and wind damage in Hampton Roads. The demographic shifts over the last three decades have led to increased population density in Northern Virginia and many coastal counties and cities in the Hampton Roads region. Increased population density in coastal areas The immediate physical damage to structures directly correlates with increased property and lives would lead to the short-term displacement of The total impact at risk. about 200,000 of the region’s 1.7 million residents. Over 16,000 of these displaced individuals would from such a A hurricane similar to Florence (2018) or seek public shelter, placing significant strain on hurricane could Katrina (2005) striking Hampton Roads would public and private resources. With over 6,000 catastrophically impact the lives of Virginians approach, if not residences destroyed during the hurricane, a and the economy of the region and the exceed, $40 billion considerable number of individuals would be Commonwealth. The total impact from such a in the first year after permanently displaced outside of Hampton Roads. hurricane could approach, if not exceed, $40 billion landfall. in the first year after landfall. This would equate Over 175,000 individuals could possibly lose their to approximately 40 percent of the Hampton jobs in the immediate aftermath of a catastrophic Roads region’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and hurricane striking Hampton Roads. In the first year approach 10 percent of the Commonwealth’s GDP. following the hurricane, we estimate that output and sales would decline by approximately $17 Wind and water damage would likely exceed billion, and compensation would decline by about $17 billion and possibly approach $20 billion. $6 billion, resulting in a total economic impact of Residential structures would bear the brunt of approximately $23 billion. When the estimated damage, with over 6,000 residences destroyed in physical damages and economic impact are the hurricane. In total, about 38,000 residential, aggregated, the total damage from a major business, and other structures would be damaged hurricane would approach, if not exceed, $40 or destroyed during the hurricane. Wind damage billion and potentially reduce economic growth in would account for approximately $4 billion of the region for years to come. total physical damage, with water damage likely exceeding $13 billion. COMMONWEALTH CENTER FOR RECURRENT FLOODING RESILIENCY 5 An Analysis of the Potential Costs and Consequences of a Hurricane Impacting the Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News Metropolitan Area Given the potential magnitude of losses from a major hurricane making landfall in the Hampton Roads region, planning and preparation for such an event is paramount. As sea temperatures rise, the number, magnitude, and track of hurricanes will shift, further increasing the importance of preparing for the ‘big one.’ Prior planning and preparation also generate positive spillovers by improving the region’s capacity to respond to other large events, including severe weather, terrorism, or large-scale accidents. The region’s preparation for such an event should not be altered by it’s recent history of avoiding severe impacts from major hurricanes. COMMONWEALTH CENTER FOR RECURRENT FLOODING RESILIENCY 6 THE RESEARCH COLLABORATIVE The Old Dominion University research collaborative has decades of experience with economic impact analysis, fiscal impact analysis, qualitative interviews, survey research, and consulting at all levels of government. The unique combination of experience and ability to convey complex topics to the public and policymakers ensures that our approach is technically rigorous, academically sound, and accessible to stakeholders. Old Dominion University (ODU): regarding the Commonwealth’s metropolitan Located in Norfolk, Virginia, ODU is one of the eight areas. The faculty of the Dragas Center have The unique colleges and universities in Hampton Roads. provided advice and assistance to numerous clients combination of It is an accredited research university offering 69 on economic impact analyses, regional economic experience and bachelor’s degrees, 55 master’s degrees, 41 development, and a wide range of public policy issues, including the impact of the opioid crisis and ability to convey doctoral degrees, and 2 educational specialist degrees. Currently, over 24,000 students are the emergence of Airbnb. complex topics enrolled, including an international student to the public and population of 1,408 representing 130 countries. Commonwealth Center for policymakers Recurrent Flooding Resiliency ensures that Dragas Center for Economic (CCRFR): our approach is Analysis and Policy (The Dragas The CCRFR engages the expertise, resources, and technically rigorous, Center): intellectual vibrancy of the College of William & Mary (W&M) and ODU in support of building The Dragas Center undertakes a wide range of academically resilience to rising waters. The Center serves, socio-economic, demographic, transportation and sound, and advises, and supports Virginia by conducting defense-oriented studies. Since 1999, the Dragas interdisciplinary studies and by providing training, accessible to Center has produced the influential State of the technical and non-technical services, and policy stakeholders. Region Report for Hampton Roads. In its 19th year, guidance in the area of recurrent flooding resilience the State of the Region Report continues to stimulate to the Commonwealth and its local governments, thought and discussion that will ultimately make state agencies, industries, and citizens. Hampton Roads an even better place to live. In 2015, the Dragas Center started producing the State of the Commonwealth Report. The report analyzes the Virginia economy and assesses its future progress, including detailed information COMMONWEALTH CENTER FOR RECURRENT FLOODING RESILIENCY 7 An Analysis of the Potential Costs and Consequences of a Hurricane Impacting the Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News Metropolitan Area Barbara
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