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Pakuwon Jati Thursday, December 22nd, 2016 PROPERTY/COMPANY UPDATES BUY Pakuwon Jati Target Price, Rp 700 Correction creates upside Upside 27.2% PWON IJ/PWON.JK We upgrade our recommendation on PWON to BUY with an unchanged Target Price of Rp700 (SOTP-based valuation with WACC of 12.7% and Terminal Growth of 4.0%). Last Price, Rp 550 Valuation wise, PWON currently trades at a 52.6% discount to its NAV, considerably No. of shares (mn) 48,159 more than its average historical discount of 40%. As such, although the stock has come Market Cap, Rp bn 26,488 under pressure recently, we believe that a recovery is now in the offing, supported by (US$ mn) 1,963 both the successful launch of its Armor and Benson apartments and the solid revenues 3M T/O, US$mn 3.4 growth expected in 2017 of 11.3% yoy. Last Recommendation Successful apartment launches in 4Q16 suggest its marketing sales target is achievable th On 9 October 2016, PWON launched its Armor Condominium apartment tower in 28-Nov-2016 HOLD Rp700 Pakuwon City, Surabaya. In the launch, the company recorded an impressive 95% take-up rate from the 350 units for sale. YTD, PWON has managed to sell 500 apartment units. PWON relative to JCI Index With an average price of Rp600mn/unit (Rp23mn/sqm), we estimate that PWON will PWON (LHS) Relative to JCI (RHS) record an additional Rp300bn of marketing sales. Overall, combined with the sales of its Rp/Share % 800 40 existing inventory, we estimate that PWON will book marketing sales of Rp2.2tn in 2016. 30 700 Another apartment tower launch to create a solid base for its 2017 marketing sales 20 th 600 PWON launched another apartment tower named Banson in Pakuwon Mall area on 9 10 500 December 2016. During the launch, the company offered 350 units for sale. According to 0 400 -10 our channel check, total sales since the launch have been strong, reaching 403 units. Since the launch of this apartment tower, the company has raised selling prices by around 10%. 1/28/16 2/26/16 3/29/16 4/26/16 5/26/16 6/23/16 7/28/16 8/26/16 9/26/16 12/29/15 10/24/16 11/21/16 11/26/15 Hence, the apartments are now priced at between Rp750-1,300mn/unit (around Rp23mn/sqm). This should translate into marketing sales of Rp280bn from this Market Recommendation apartment. Due to the company’s policy to record marketing sales after collecting a 10% down payment, we believe that these marketing sales will be recognized in 2017. BUY 9 Sound revenues growth in 2017 We believe that additional retail space from the Pakuwon Mall extension (Phase 2 and 3) HOLD 8 coupled with retail rental fee adjustments will result in 13.9% yoy growth in recurring SELL 1 revenues in 2017. This will help to lift overall revenues growth given the lower development revenues growth (+8.4% yoy). All in all, we estimate that PWON will record Consensus 11.3% revenues growth in 2017. Ultimately, we expect the net margin to improve by Our Cons % Diff 1.2ppt to 37.4% in 2017 thanks to a lower final tax rate on property development, despite Target Price, IDR 700 726 -3.6 the flat gross and operating margins. EPS 2017F, IDR 41.9 44.0 -4.7 PE 2017F, x 13.1 12.5 4.8 Upgrade to BUY since the recent correction provides more upside We upgrade our recommendation on PWON to BUY from HOLD with an unchanged Target Price of Rp700 (SOTP-based valuation with WACC of 12.7% and Terminal Growth of 4.0%). Valuation wise, PWON currently trades at a deep 52.6% discount to its NAV, considerably more than its average historical discount of 40%. As such, although the stock has come under pressure recently amid the massive foreign outflows from the Indonesian market this month reaching Rp5.1tn (net), we are confident that a recovery in PWON’s share price is now in the offing. 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F Revenue, IDRbn 3,872 4,625 4,856 5,403 6,159 Antonia Hartono EBITDA, IDRbn 2,472 2,558 2,595 2,861 3,164 (62-21) 2955 5777 ext 3504 EBITDA growth, % 45.0% 3.5% 1.4% 10.2% 10.6% [email protected] Net profit, IDRbn 2,515 1,262 1,757 2,019 2,166 Core profit, IDRbn 1,326 1,673 1,628 1,891 2,126 Natalia Sutanto EPS, IDR 52.2 26.2 36.5 41.9 45.0 (62-21) 2955 5777 ext 3508 EPS growth, % 122.0% -49.8% 39.2% 14.9% 7.3% [email protected] Core EPS, IDR 28 35 34 39 44 Core EPS growth, % 17.5% 26.2% -2.7% 16.1% 12.4% Net gearing, % 21.6% 30.0% 23.6% 21.1% 17.3% Danareksa research reports are also PER, x 10.5 21.0 15.1 13.1 12.2 available at Reuters Multex and First Core PER, x 20.0 15.8 16.3 14.0 12.5 Call Direct and Bloomberg. Yield, % 0.9% 0.9% 0.4% 0.6% 0.7% EV/EBITDA, x 11.4 11.5 11.2 10.2 9.2 December 22nd, 2016 Pakuwon Jati Exhibit 1. NAV calculation Land bank Price per Area RNAV Location Stakes Plot ratio sqm Method (ha) (Rp bn) (Rp mn/sqm) Kota Kasablanka South Jakarta 100.0% 3.4 75% 32.1 NAV 818 Gandaria City South Jakarta 83.3% 1.9 75% 12.8 NAV 152 TB Simatupang South Jakarta 70.0% 4.5 75% 26.6 NAV 628 Pakuwon City East Surabaya, East Java 100.0% 234.5 65% 15.5 NAV 23,683 Outside Pakuwon City East Surabaya, East Java 100.0% 21.5 65% 10.6 NAV 1,478 Tunjungan City Central Surabaya, East Java 100.0% 3.2 75% 32.1 NAV 770 Supermall Pakuwon Indah West Surabaya, East Java 67.1% 3.9 65% 13.7 NAV 233 Grand Pakuwon Township West Surabaya, East Java 100.0% 158.2 65% 9.1 NAV 9,364 Outside Grand Pakuwon West Surabaya, East Java 100.0% 6.9 65% 6.1 NAV 272 Royal Plaza South Surabaya, East Java 75.0% 1.8 75% 22.0 NAV 222 Bekasi West Java 83.9% 3.2 0.5 Cost 14 Daan Mogot West Jakarta 100.0% 11.0 9.0 Cost 990 Total land bank 454.0 Investment Property Kota Kasablanka South Jakarta 100% DCF 4,044.9 Gandaria City South Jakarta 83% DCF 3,827.8 Tunjungan City Central Surabaya, East Java 100% DCF 5,501.5 Supermall Pakuwon Indah West Surabaya, East Java 67% DCF 3,298.9 Royal Plaza South Surabaya, East Java 75% DCF 491.3 Pakuwon Town Square East Surabaya, East Java 100% DCF 101.1 Blok M Plaza South Jakarta 100% DCF 459.0 Hotels DCF 1,515.4 Future - mixed used development Kota Kasablanka South Jakarta 100% DCF 1,942.8 Tunjungan Plaza Central Surabaya, East Java 100% DCF 524.3 Pakuwon City East Surabaya, East Java 100% DCF 230.0 Supermall Pakuwon Indah West Surabaya, East Java 67% DCF 567.9 Total asset (Rp bn) 61,129 Net debts (Rp bn) 2,735 Advance from customer (Rp bn) 2,539 Net asset value (Rp bn) 55,855 Discount to NAV (%) 40% Number of shares outstanding (bn shares) 48.2 Target price (Rp/share) 700 2 December 22nd, 2016 Pakuwon Jati Exhibit 2. Marketing sales Exhibit 3. Revenues Rp tn Rp tn 3.5 3.0 3.1 3.1 80% 6.0 5.4 50% 4.6 4.9 3.0 60% 5.0 2.2 3.9 40% 2.5 2.2 1.9 40% 4.0 3.0 2.0 30% 20% 3.0 2.2 1.5 1.1 20% 0% 2.0 1.5 1.0 10% 0.5 -20% 1.0 - -40% - 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F High rise Landed Growth (RHS) Development Recurring Growth (RHS) Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas Exhibit 4. Contribution of development and recurring revenue Exhibit 5. Profitability margin 100% 80% 80% 60% 60% 40% 40% 20% 20% 0% 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F Development Recurring Gross Operating EBITDA Net Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas Exhibit 6. Net gearing ratio Exhibit 7. EBITDA coverage 100% 12.0 87% 10.2 77% 9.2 10.0 9.0 8.7 80% 8.2 61% 59% 8.0 6.7 60% 55% 52% 47% 41% 6.0 35% 4.3 40% 30% 4.0 22% 24% 21% 20% 7% 2.0 0% - 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F Gearing ratio Net gearing ratio Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas Exhibit 8. PE band Company Exhibit 9. PE band Sector Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas, Bloomberg Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas, Bloomberg 3 December 22nd, 2016 Pakuwon Jati Exhibit 10. Income Statement (in Rp bn) 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F Sales 3,872 4,625 4,856 5,403 6,159 COGS (1,714) (1,957) (2,132) (2,389) (2,817) Gross profit 2,158 2,669 2,724 3,014 3,341 Operating expenses (269) (404) (428) (464) (498) Operating profit 1,889 2,265 2,296 2,550 2,843 Other income/expenses 976 (520) (48) (41) (123) Pre-tax profit 2,859 1,741 2,248 2,509 2,720 Taxes (260) (341) (368) (349) (403) Net profit 2,515 1,262 1,757 2,019 2,166 Core profit 1,326 1,673 1,628 1,891 2,126 Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas Exhibit 11.
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