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The Route of Development in Intra-Regional Income Equality Via High-Speed Rail: Evidence from China

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The Route of Development in Intra-Regional Income Equality Via High-Speed Rail: Evidence from China The Route of Development in intra-regional Income Equality via High-Speed Rail: Evidence from China Wenjing YU, China Academy for Rural Development, Zhejiang University [email protected] Yansang YAO, China Academy for Rural Development, Zhejiang University [email protected] Selected Paper prepared for presentation at the 2019 Agricultural & Applied Economics Association Annual Meeting, Atlanta, GA, July 21 – July 23 Copyright 2019 by [Wenjing Yu, Yansang Yao]. All rights reserved. Readers may make verbatim copies of this document for non-commercial purposes by any means, provided that this copyright notice appears on all such copies. The Route of Development in intra-regional Income Equality via High-Speed Rail: Evidence from China Abstract This paper mainly studies how the bullet trains, a new generation of vehicles, are associated with income inequality in China for the years between 2008 and 2018. Gini coefficients are used to measure the income inequality from county level, and within urban and rural areas of China. A staggered Difference-in-Difference (DID) approach is taken to identify the causal effect of high-speed rail on intra-regional income inequality. Factors other than transportation are also considered in our regression model, including a few social variables and major economic indicators. It is found that the Gini coefficient of reginal economy would rise by 0.0327 in average when new high-speed railway stations are opened, which means that the intra-regional income inequality is being exacerbated. We also find that the treatment drawn by high-speed rail system is not uniform in different regions, and the greatest impact was set on the western region. Key words: high-speed rail, income inequality, county level Introduction With rapid economic growth following the opening-up policy, economic disparity has become a major challenge in China (Jian et al., 1996). Income inequality problem is not only reflected on the income gap among different regions, but also manifested in the income inequality within certain areas, which has a more direct influence on the harmony and stability of local society. Most literatures(Kaiyuen, 1998; Adler & Schmid,2013; Hui, 2008) summarize the causes of income inequality into two aspects, namely the endowments differences and the frequency of production factor flows. The former mainly refers to human capital, such as education level and health conditions; the latter is closely related to the transportation network. Transportation system and the economy are unavoidably linked. Traffic itself set no value, but it is considered as a way to bridge the spatial gap between regions, which can respond to the derivative needs of human activities. Beginning with “New Economic Geography” (Krugman, 1991), it has been proved that under the background of the imperfectly competitive world, changes in transportation costs and accessibility can generate a profound impact on the location and agglomeration of activities. One proposed solution to the issue of income inequality is putting investments in public transportation. Most governments, especially in developing countries, prefer to invest in transportation infrastructure to stimulate the economy, and the bullet train, one of the most advanced ground transportation modes, has commanded attention in recent years. (Amos et al., 2013; Ashish et al., 2013; Ke et al., 2017). In current China, the development of traditional railways is far from meeting the needs of integrated transportation system for other industries. Rather than upgrading traditional railway station, Chinese government chose to brand tens of thousands of new high-speed rail stations, especially in suburban areas, with the purpose to stimulate new towns’ development and accelerate regional urbanization. Most researchers (Zhang & Zou, 2012; Zheng & Kahn, 2013) focused on the impact of HSR on economic productivity and competitiveness, arguing that economies can benefit from lower generalized costs of transport. A few scholars (Chen & Haynes, 2017; Yang et al., 2018) pointed out that the HSR projects have also shown the positive effects on regional imbalance during the past few decades, supporting that HSR investment could have a transformative impact on the economy as a whole, rather than just on directly affected local areas. However, little attention has been paid to income inequity within regions and the economic theory is unclear on how investments in transportation system should affect income inequality. In principle, the opening of high-speed rail can accelerate the speed of inter-regional elements flowing, especially of the labor resources. As a result, the degree of market information asymmetry between regions is weakened, as well as the structure of production factors within regions changing, which is presented as the structure reorganization of labor force and three main industries. The income distribution within regions will be rewritten due to the resource reallocation. Empirical analysis of the effect of public transportation investment on income inequality has been mixed.Yan Li and Maria N. DaCosta (2013) studies the relationship between various types of transportation modes and income inequality in China for the years between 1978 and 2007, finding that most transportation modes are negatively associated with income inequality in urban areas while the coefficients are positive for rural areas. Each of the previous results were established using cross-city data, and examine the impart of high-speed rail system on economic growth or inter-regional inequality. However, there is growing evidence that public transportation does affect income equality of intra-regions. Investing in high-speed rail is on the front line of action to revitalize the railways. The ultimate objective is to create new generation of passenger transport for the sake of reducing congestion, accidents and environmental externalities. High-speed rail investment is seen as a feasible measure, with the aim of drawing the benefit from railways which is associated with lower total travel time, higher comfort and reliability, a reduction in the probability of accident and, in some cases, the release of extra capacity which helps to enlarge the frequency of information exchange among regions. Last but not least, it has been argued that high-speed rail investment weakens the differences of absolute economic advantages among regions and boosts regional development. In fact,the main element transported by high-speed railway is human beings and the impact of high-speed rail stations set on the cross-regional mobility depend on the characteristics of target passengers, because the ticket price of bullet trains is several times higher than that of ordinary transport modes, and residents' demand for high-speed rail is related to their economic affordability. Furthermore, each station is equipped with a complete public system, including commercial facilities and social Infrastructure, which increase the employment opportunities for labors within a certain radius. No matter in which region, individual’s income and labor market structure are both probably shocked by high-speed rail project. Our current work provides evidence adding to the body of empirical literature examining the effects of high-speed rail investment on reginal development. As income inequality is a serious issue in China, the primary question in this paper is to examine how high-speed rail stations openings in China impact intra-regional income inequality, which would be measured by Gini index. In principle, one might calculate the effect of public transportation on income inequality by regressing the Gini coefficient, an authoritative proxy variable of income inequality based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the share of population against the share of income received. However, this approach is likely to be flawed because of other confounding factors driving both variables. For example, economic structure is closely related to the regional quadratic assignment strategy, such as tax policy formulated by government. To be specific, we regress the degree of intra-regional income inequality on a dummy variable for new high-speed railway stations’ openings in a difference-in-difference framework where time is the running variable. Our key identifying assumption is that the intra-regional income disparity of full samples keeps parallel trend which means all other factors influencing Gini index are smooth except the new rail stations themselves. Changes to other contributors to income equality, such as the local population and economy, do not threaten our identifying assumption as long as they evolve parallelly among all the counties. As a result, the treatment effect in our outcomes of interest at the time of the high-speed stations’ openings can be attributed to the change in income disparity of local residents. We compare the Gini index per month—between counties that made their traffic system more generous and inclusive and other counties that did not—before and after the opening of high- speed rail stations (difference-in-difference) to estimate the difference made by changes in the high-speed rail system. We find that high-speed rail stations’ openings cause large ups in intra-reginal income inequality. In our primary specification, the major finding is the significant impact of the high- speed rail project on income inequality within regions, as the Gini index changed by 0.0327, which means intra-regional income disparity has generally increased
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