Urban Transformation in Transitional Economies: Lessons from the Mongolian Plateau

URBAN TRANSFORMATION IN TRANSITIONAL ECONOMIES:
LESSONS FROM THE MONGOLIAN PLATEAU

By
Hogeun Park

A DISSERTATION

Submitted to
Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of

Planning, Design, and Construction—Doctor of Philosophy
2018

ABSTRACT
URBAN TRANSFORMATION IN TRANSITIONAL ECONOMIES:
LESSONS FROM THE MONGOLIAN PLATEAU

By
Hogeun Park
Over the past three decades, transitional economies have experienced dramatic urbanization in response to changes in the human and natural environments, resulting from economic transitions, industrial restructures, institutional reforms, and climate variability. However, our knowledge of the causes and processes of urbanization in transitional economies remains limited. Here, I used the Mongolian Plateau (MGP), including Inner Mongolia in China (IM) and Mongolia (MG), as a testbed for studying the processes and causes of urbanization. I also investigated urban challenges and the policy implications of those issues. The dissertation is set to three research objectives: (1) understanding the processes of urbanization in the MGP, (2) analyzing the driving forces of rural-to-urban migration, and (3) identifying urban challenges and proposing policy solutions.
For the first objective, I analyzed the spatial characteristics of urbanization in six cities
(Hohhot, Baotou, and Ulanqab in IM, and Ulaanbaatar, Erdenet, and Darkhan in MG) using remote sensing analyses, computed the urban growth rates, population density, and discontiguity (i.e., leap-frogging index) of each city from 1990 through 2015, and applied structural equation models. I found divergent spatial patterns of urbanization in IM and MG and the differential institutional supports and industrial structures contributing to these disparities.
For the second objective, I used household surveys to analyze the forces driving rural-tourban migration, complemented with remote sensing tools to estimate the actual environmental conditions of respondents’ former residences. I found that social and economic factors were the most significant motivators of migration. The statistical models demonstrated that the importance of environmental factors as mediators of economic factors and highlighted remaining gaps between scientific research and policy implementation.
For the third objective, I analyze developmental processes and spatial patterns of the informal settlements, Ger districts, through remote sensing analysis and semi-structured interviews with residents. I identified three different stages of Ger districts’ growth: infancy, consolidation, and maturity and Ger districts experienced dramatic growth (588%) and evolution from infancy into consolidation or maturity between 1990 and 2013. These results indicate that to successfully develop future policies, Ger districts must be viewed as heterogeneous and evolving assemblages.
The key contributions of my dissertation are: (1) designing multi-scale and multidimensional analyses to understand complex mechanisms of urbanization; (2) identifying unique patterns and drivers of urbanization in transitional economies, with particular consideration of socioeconomic and biophysical changes; (3) adopting interdisciplinary approaches, e.g., qualitative interviews, geospatial analyses, and statistical modeling, to address complex research questions; and (4) providing evidence-based policy suggestions.

Keywords: transitional economy; urbanization; migration; Mongolian plateau; informal settlements; urban sustainability

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This dissertation would not have been possible without the tremendous help, guidance, and support of many individuals and groups, to whom I owe many thanks.
First and foremost, I would like to thank Dr. Peilei Fan, my advisor. Under her guidance,
I have learned the art of socio-economic analysis from multiple perspectives. In addition to receiving her generous academic supervision, I had the privilege to be her first PhD student. Our interactive discussions, meetings, and field trips were extremely valuable in shaping my academic foundation, helping me settle into MSU and my research comfortably, and her guidance and encouragement were key in my successful completion of this dissertation. I also feel profoundly grateful to Dr. Jiquan Chen, my co-advisor and the director of the Landscape Ecology & Ecosystem Science Lab (LEES) lab, for playing an irreplaceable role in shaping my research. I have learned so much from his great passion for science and his sharp insights, which continually encouraged me to develop my own “scientific thinking.” I also owe my appreciation to Dr. Mark Wilson. Throughout many conversations, I was benefited from his knowledge and expertise in urban planning. On top of that, he offered me many chances to be involved in his classes, for which I am grateful. The same thanks go to Dr. Zeenat Kotval-Karamchandani. As a member of my committee, she profoundly influenced me with her knowledge of developing countries and her emotional support. Notably, my conversations with her always left me feeling hopeful and encouraged.
Besides faculty members, I also owe a great deal of thanks to my PhD cohort from the
School of Planning, Design and Construction (SPDC), members of the LEES lab, and colleagues from the Center for Global Change and Earth Observations (CGCEO). They inspired my

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academic passions, as well as helping and supporting me during the many hard times of my PhD journey. I can hardly name them one by one since there are so many; however, I firmly believe that my PhD would not have been possible without their friendship reminding me that I was not alone in this tough journey.
My gratitude also goes to the institutions which helped my research. As a recipient of the
Korean Government Doctoral Study Abroad Scholarship, I am hugely thankful to the Korean government for their financial support. I also appreciate the financial support that I received from the National Science Foundation's Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems (CNH) Program (#1313761). Furthermore, the Asia Development Fellowship from The Asia Foundation & KDI School offered me the opportunity to conduct my field study in Mongolia, which helped me gain an in-depth understanding of urban lifestyle and challenges in that country that would not have been possible otherwise.
Last but definitely not least, I am deeply indebted to my family. My wife, Bomi Eom, has given me constant love and support, and I am more grateful to her than I can express in words. She and I have overcome many hurdles together, which have made our relationship strong, and this experience has created unforgettable memories for us both. Finally, my parents, parents-inlaw, and grandparents—without their support, I cannot imagine how I would have come this far. I dedicate this dissertation to them.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

LIST OF TABLES ………………………………………………………………………….…....ix LIST OF FIGURES ………………………………………………………………………..……..x KEY TO ABBREVIATIONS ……………………………………………………………….…..xii

1.2.2. Transformation of human system in the Mongolian plateau ................................. 5 1.2.3. Transformation of natural system in the Mongolian plateau ................................. 6

1.3 Conceptual Framework and Research Objectives ........................................................ 7
Chapter 2 .......................................................................................................................................11

Urbanization on the Mongolian Plateau after economic reform: Changes and causes¹................11

2.1. Introduction .................................................................................................................11 2.2. Study Area, Data, and Methods ................................................................................. 13
2.2.1. Study area ............................................................................................................ 13

2.2.2. Urban land data processing: GEOBIA classification .......................................... 16

2.4.1. The role of local government on urbanizatio n .................................................... 26 2.4.2. The role of economy on urbanization and the contrasting role of pastoral

economy ........................................................................................................................ 28 2.4.3. The role of social goods on urbanizatio n ............................................................ 29

2.4.4. Implications for sustainable urban development ................................................ 31

2.5. Conclusions ................................................................................................................ 32
Chapter 3 ...................................................................................................................................... 33

Deciphering the complexity of rural-to-urban migration in a transitional economy.................... 33

3.1. Introduction ................................................................................................................ 33

3.2. Conceptual framework of analyzing rural-to-urban migratio n .................................. 35

3.3. Methods ...................................................................................................................... 38
3.3.1. Study area ............................................................................................................ 38 3.3.2. Household survey design .................................................................................... 39 3.3.3. Processing Remote Sensing (RS) products ......................................................... 40

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3.3.4. Partial Least Squares-Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) .................... 41

3.4. Results ........................................................................................................................ 43

3.4.1. Unique characteristics of migrants to Ulaanbaatar ............................................. 43

3.4.2. Driving forces of rural-to-urban migratio n ......................................................... 44

3.4.3. Feedback and interactions of multiple driving forces ......................................... 47

3.5. Discussio n .................................................................................................................. 48

3.5.1. Impact of transitional economy and socioeconomic transformation .................. 48 3.5.2. Environmental driver: A mediator of the economic driver ................................. 49 3.5.3. Institutional supports: Remaining challenges ..................................................... 51 3.5.4. Implication for future migration studies and limitations .................................... 52

3.6. Conclusions ................................................................................................................ 53

APPENDIX…………………………………….............…………………………………...........55

Chapter 4 ...................................................................................................................................... 58

Spatiotemporal dynamics of informal settlements: Ger districts in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia ........ 58

4.1. Introduction ................................................................................................................ 58 4.2. Study Area, Data, and Methods ................................................................................. 60
4.2.1. Study Area ........................................................................................................... 60 4.2.2. Remote sensing data and pre-processing ............................................................ 62

4.2.3. Detecting Ger districts from QuickBrid imagery ................................................ 65 4.2.4. Understanding developmental stages of Ger districts ......................................... 66 4.2.5. Delineation of Ger districts in different developmental stages ........................... 68 4.2.6. Landsat imagery and Support V e ctor Machine (SVM) classification ................. 69

4.4.1. Spatial dynamics of Ger districts in response to the urban challenge s ............... 74

4.4.2. Drivers of the growth of Ger district s ................................................................. 77

4.4.3. Future of Ger districts and policy implications ................................................... 78

4.4.4. The limitations of this study and beyon d ............................................................ 79
4.5. Conclusions ................................................................................................................ 80

APPENDIX………………………………....................…………………………………............81

Chapter 5 ...................................................................................................................................... 86 Conclusions................................................................................................................................... 86
5.1. Conclusions ........................................................................................................................ 86

5.1.1. Divergent mechanisms of urbanization in IM and MG .............................................. 86 5.1.2. Urban migration as a coping mechanism to socioeconomic and environmental

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5.2.3. Rural-to-urban migration mechanism in Inner Mongolia, China ............................... 94

5.2.4. Urban-to-rural migration in Mongoli a ........................................................................ 94

BIBLIOGRAPHY……………………………....................…………………………………......96

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LIST OF TABLES

Table 2.1. Selected socioeconomic and biophysical variables used in PLS-SEM (Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling) ………………………………………………………….19

Table 2.2. Estimated model coefficients from PLS-SEM and bootstrapping results with subsamples (i.e., 500 iterations) ……………………………………………………...……………...26

Table 3.1. Selected socioeconomic and biophysical variables used in PLS-SEM (Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling) ………………………………………………………….43

Table 3.2. ANOVA and T-test for different groups: rejected null hypothesis that there is no difference between groups as of 95% confidence interval in bold ......……………………….....47

Table 3.3. Estimated model coefficients from PLS-SEM and bootstrapping results with subsamples (i.e., 5000 iterations) *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1........………………………….......48

Table 4.1. Ruleset summary and the quantitative classification criteria with the sequence from top to bottom ………………………………………………………………........................................66

Table 4.2. Results of cross-tabulated areas between infancy stage of Ger districts in 1990 and the classified map of 2000, 2005 and 2013 .…………………………………….................................73

Table 5.1. Summaries of land-use regulation and policies in pre- and post-transitional periods in IM and MG……………………………………………………………........................................92

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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1.1. The Mongolia Plateau including Inner Mongolia (IM) and Mongolia (MG)……….....3 Figure 1.2. The conceptual framework for the research design and objectives, guiding three individual chapters, with Chapter 2 and Chapter 3 analyzing the complex mechanisms of urbanization and rural-to-urban migration and Chapter 4 investigating the growth of informal settlements and possible policy suggestions.………………………..………………………….....8

Figure 2.1. Location of the selected cities in IM and MG. The cities are selected by their urban characteristics in regards to their regional roles with similar ecological settings….……..……….15