CHINESE NATIONAL SECURITY DECISIONMAKING UNDER STRESS Edited by Andrew Scobell Larry M. Wortzel September 2005 Visit our website for other free publication downloads http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/ To rate this publication click here. Form Approved Report Documentation Page OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington VA 22202-4302. 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SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF 18. NUMBER 19a. NAME OF ABSTRACT OF PAGES RESPONSIBLE PERSON a. REPORT b. ABSTRACT c. THIS PAGE 258 unclassified unclassified unclassified Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 ***** The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. This report is cleared for public release; distribution is unlimited. ***** Comments pertaining to this report are invited and should be forwarded to: Director, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 122 Forbes Ave, Carlisle, PA 17013-5244. ***** All Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) monographs are available on the SSI Homepage for electronic dissemination. Hard copies of this report also may be ordered from our Homepage. SSI’s Homepage address is: http://www.carlisle.army. mil/ssi/ ***** The Strategic Studies Institute publishes a monthly e-mail newsletter to update the national security community on the research of our analysts, recent and forthcoming publications, and upcoming conferences sponsored by the Institute. Each newsletter also provides a strategic commentary by one of our research analysts. If you are interested in receiving this newsletter, please subscribe on our homepage at http://www.carlisle.army.mil/ssi/newsletter.cfm. ISBN 1-58487-206-3 ii CONTENTS Foreword Ambassador James R. Lilley .................................................................. v 1. Introduction Andrew Scobell and Larry M. Wortzel ..............................................1 2. Chinese Crisis Management: Framework for Analysis, Tentative Observations, and Questions for the Future Michael D. Swaine .............................................................................5 3. The Tiananmen Massacre Reappraised: Public Protest, Urban Warfare, and the People’s Liberation Army Larry M. Wortzel .............................................................................55 4. SARS 2002-2003: A Case Study in Crisis Management Susan M. Puska ...............................................................................85 5. Chinese Decisionmaking Under Stress: The Taiwan Strait, 1995-2004 Richard Bush ..................................................................................135 6. Decisionmaking Under Stress: The Unintentional Bombing of China’s Belgrade Embassy and the EP-3 Collision Paul H. B. Godwin .........................................................................161 7. Decisionmaking in Triplicate: China and the Three Iraqi Wars Yitzhak Shichor ..............................................................................191 8. “Decisionmaking Under Stress” or “Crisis Management”?: In Lieu of a Conclusion Frank Miller and Andrew Scobell ................................................ 229 About the Contributors ........................................................................249 iii FOREWORD National security decisionmaking under stress or crisis management is something with which I have had some firsthand experience over the course of my career in government service. Most relevant to the topic of this edited volume is my tour of duty as U.S. Ambassador in Beijing which began in May 1989—a month before Tiananmen of June 3 and 4. In my position as chief U.S. diplomat in China, I was an actor and an observer—along with many dedicated and resourceful U.S. Embassy personnel—to the events that constituted a case study of Chinese communist crisis management. My colleagues and I were witnesses to what, in my judgment, constituted one of the gravest crises to the communists’ control of China since 1949. We engaged the Chinese leadership during this time of tension and precipitous action. As ambassador, I was responsible for managing the stressful and perilous situation that confronted the Embassy, its personnel, and U.S. citizens living and working in Beijing and elsewhere in China. While I directed our diplomatic personnel to do their utmost to report on and document the full extent of the crackdown ordered by China’s communist leaders, my foremost concern was to ensure the safety and security of Americans in the country at the time. As a result more than 6,000 U.S. citizens were withdrawn from China in what was one of the largest evacuations of overseas Americans in a crisis situation since World War II. We saw both bravery and shirking among Americans, while the media was constantly trying to expose flaws in our actions. It was a time of rapid change and considerable manipulation. As events such as the EP-3 incident of April 2001 and the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic of 2003 demonstrate, the topic of this volume is as timely and important today as it was 16 years ago. An improved understanding of how the Chinese leadership—civilian and military—handles decisionmaking under conditions of crisis or stress is essential. This volume makes a worthwhile contribution on this topic. I commend it to you. Ambassador James R. Lilley Senior Fellow American Enterprise Institute v CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION Andrew Scobell and Larry M. Wortzel If there is one constant in expert analyses of the history of modern China, it is the characterization of a country perpetually in the throes of crises. And in nearly all crises, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has played an instrumental role. While China at the mid-point of the 21st century’s first decade is arguably the most secure and stable it has been in more than a century, crises continue to emerge with apparent frequency. Consequently, the study of China’s behavior in conditions of tension and stress, and particularly how the PLA is a factor in that behavior, is of considerable importance to policymakers and analysts around the world. This volume represents the fruits of a conference held at the U.S. Army War College in September 2004 on the theme of “Chinese Crisis Management.” One of the major debates that emerged among participants was whether all the case studies under examination constituted crises in the eyes of China’s leaders. The consensus was that not all of these incidents were perceived as crises―a key case in point being the three Iraq wars (1980-88, 1990-91, and 2003). As a result, the rubric of “decisionmaking under stress” was adopted as presenters revised their papers for publication. No matter what rubric is employed, however, the chapters in this volume shed light on patterns of Chinese behavior in crisis-like situations and decisionmaking under stress. Michael Swaine’s contributed chapter first establishes a general framework for understanding crisis management based on previous work by Alexander George and J. Philip Rogers. He then proceeds to apply this framework to Chinese crisis management in particular. Swaine identifies five basic variables that influence crisis management behavior―subjective views of leaders and public, domestic environment, decisionmaking structure, information receipt and processing, and idiosyncratic features. In the case of China, he argues, the country often views itself as a victim and therefore strongly reacts to what it perceives as “unjust actions” on the part of other countries. Chinese leaders are thereby compelled 1 to signal their firm resolve on serious issues through words and actions. However, decisionmaking is centralized in the hands of a small number of Party cadre, who work to develop a consensus, while China’s bureaucratic Party and intelligence system severely compartmentalizes the flow of information, especially to senior leaders. This limits and sometimes distorts the information they receive during