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COMMENT Jpmorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM)

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COMMENT Jpmorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) INITIATION | COMMENT 125 WEEKS 22FEB08 - 09JUL10 Rel. S&P 500 HI-10OCT08 142.63 JULY 12, 2010 135.00 HI/LO DIFF -49.66% 120.00 105.00 CLOSE 111.01 JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) 90.00 75.00 LO-06MAR09 71.80 2008 2009 2010 FM A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J Regulatory Smoke Clouding Underlying Value HI-03OCT08 50.63 48.00 HI/LO DIFF -70.45% 42.00 36.00 30.00 CLOSE 38.85 Outperform 24.00 Average Risk 18.00 Price Target: 45.00 LO-06MAR09 14.96 Price: 39.18 600000 Implied All-In Return: 15% Market Cap (MM): 155,897 400000 PEAK VOL.709186.9 Shares O/S (MM): 3,979.0 200000 VOLUME 152297.9 Dividend: 0.05 Yield: 0.1% BVPS: 39.38 P/BVPS: 1.0x Tangible BVPS: 26.40 Avg. Daily Volume (MM): 42.00 RBC Capital Markets Corp. ROE: 7.6% Float (MM): 133,194.0 Gerard Cassidy (Analyst) Institutional Ownership: 76% (207) 780-1554; [email protected] Priced as of market close, ET July 12, 2010. Jake Civiello (Associate) (207) 780-1554; [email protected] Initiating Coverage at Outperform with a $45 Price Target Investment Opinion FY Dec 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E EPS (Op) - FD 0.83 2.52 3.12 4.58 • Initiating at Outperform: We are initiating coverage of JPMorgan Chase & P/E 47.2x 15.5x 12.6x 8.6x Co. with an Outperform rating, Average Risk and a price target of $45 per EPS (Op) - FD Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 share, which is 1.12x estimated 2Q10 book value. Our initial 2010 and 2011 2008 0.67A 0.53A (0.08)A (0.29)A EPS estimates are $3.12 and $4.58, respectively (see p. 7). 2009 0.40A 0.57A 0.80A 0.74A • Dodd-Frank Act to Have Forceful EPS Impact: We believe EPS will be 2010 0.74A 0.71E 0.81E 0.85E reduced by 5% (effect included in our estimates) due to the The Dodd-Frank All values in USD unless otherwise noted. Act. The effect, however, could change based on further interpretation and implementation of Act (see p. 10). • Another Deal on the Horizon?: JPM has an estimated 9.0% U.S. deposit market share (below 10% limit), which means SunTrust Banks Inc. (NYSE: STI; $25.46; Not Rated) is an ideal target for JPM, in our opinion (see p. 21). • Credit Deterioration Appears to Have Peaked: Nonperforming Assets (NPAs) for the company as a whole appear to have peaked in the 4Q09, although the level of NPAs still remains high. We believe the improvement in credit will drive earnings going forward (see p. 33). • Dividend Increase on the Horizon: We expect JPM will start increasing its dividends in 2011 and eventually lift it to $1.80 per share (see p. 20). • Diversified Business Model: The company's revenue stream is divided into primarily six business lines. This diversified revenue stream has kept the company profitable in most quarters during the recent financial crisis and, in a normalized environment, would offer significant earnings power (see p. 26 & 42). • Expected to be Over Capitalized: We believe that the company's capital ratios will exceed the new Tier 1 Common and Tier 1 Equity ratios and the new Basel III requirements which are not expected to be effective for 3-5 years (see p. 20 and 40). • Stock is Undervalued: Since its recent high in April, the stock has underperformed the major bank indices, due to an overreaction to the uncertainty that surrounds the company, in our view. We believe normalized earnings (in 2012) could reach between $5.18 and $5.68 per share. Our $45 per share price target still offers meaningful upside based on current market valuations (see p. 3). Priced as of prior trading day's market close, EST (unless otherwise noted). For Required Conflicts Disclosures, see Page 65. 77 July 12, 2010 JPMorgan Chase & Co. Table of Contents Valuations and Estimates ........................................................................................................................................................................... 3 Risks to Our Estimates ............................................................................................................................................................................... 9 Potential Effect from Dodd-Frank Act ..................................................................................................................................................... 10 Repurchase Loan Risk from Reps & Warrants ........................................................................................................................................ 19 The Obama Financial Crisis Responsibility Fee ...................................................................................................................................... 20 Dividends ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 20 Acquisitions ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 21 Company Description .............................................................................................................................................................................. 22 History ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 24 Navigating the Financial Crisis ................................................................................................................................................................ 26 Consolidated Revenue Overview ............................................................................................................................................................. 27 Consolidated Expense Overview ............................................................................................................................................................. 29 Credit Exposure ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 30 Asset Quality............................................................................................................................................................................................ 33 Off-Balance Sheet Exposure .................................................................................................................................................................... 37 Funding Overview ................................................................................................................................................................................... 39 Deposit Composition ............................................................................................................................................................................... 39 Regulatory Capital ................................................................................................................................................................................... 40 Lines of Business Overview .................................................................................................................................................................... 42 Investment Bank Review ......................................................................................................................................................................... 46 Retail Financial Services Review ............................................................................................................................................................ 48 Card Services Review .............................................................................................................................................................................. 54 Commercial Banking Review .................................................................................................................................................................. 55 Treasury & Securities Services Review ................................................................................................................................................... 57 Asset Management Review ...................................................................................................................................................................... 58 Corporate/Private Equity Review ............................................................................................................................................................ 59 Management Team .................................................................................................................................................................................. 60 Peer Group ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 62 2 78 July 12, 2010 JPMorgan Chase & Co. Valuations and Estimates In valuing the company, we first estimated JPM’s normalized earnings by analyzing the returns on each line of business, both on a historical basis and on management stated targets. We then valued the company under two methods: 1) Standard application of a price-to-earnings multiple to the estimated normalized earnings and 2) Dividend yield method driven off of the estimated normalized earnings. Exhibit
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