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Monday, January 29, 2007 BOARD OF ADVISORS Featured Q&A With Our Board of Advisors Bernard Aronson Peter Hakim Managing Partner, President, Latin America's state-owned mium for multinationals firms to do busi- ACON Investments LLC Inter-American companies are gaining in impor- ness in 'sensitive' sectors, let alone enter Diego Arria Dialogue tance as renewed nationalism into partnership with the state-owned Director, Donna Hrinak has taken hold in several coun- enterprises. Partnerships work best for all Columbus Group Director for Corporate Q tries. But partnerships with the private when there is in place a government that Genaro Arriagada and Govt. Affairs, sector remain key to the success of state- respects private enterprise, the rule of law, Kraft Foods Inc. Board Member, Banco owned enterprises, nearly all government and the sanctity of contracts, and where del Estado de Chile Jon Huenemann officials in the region say publicly. When there is an environment conducive to for- Joyce Chang Principal, and why should a multinational company eign investment. For the multinational International Global Head of decide to seek strategic partnership with firm, the nature of the investment (e.g., Emerging Markets Department, Research, J.P. Morgan Miller & Chevalier state-owned industry players? How can large, export-oriented) as well as the level Chase & Co. James R. Jones these partnerships be structured to be of know-how (technology) and human Adrian Cruz Co-chair, beneficial for all parties, including the capital required (highly skilled technical Founder and Senior Manatt Jones region? Aside from the publicly-owned and managerial people) will determine its Partner, Global Strategies LLC companies, how can the private sector, bargaining position. If the investment fur- Crisis Simulations Nicolás Mariscal within itself, best approach strategic part- thers national development goals and pro- International, LLC Chairman, nerships in Latin America in today's busi- duces positive social impacts, as well, the Grupo Marhnos W. Bowman Cutter ness climate? Continued on page 3 Partner, Juan Felipe Muñoz E.M. Warburg President, Guest Comment: Jerry Haar: PHOTO OF THE DAY Pincus The Otun Group "Partnerships with state-owned Rui da Costa Thomas F. enterprises are like marriages: Managing Director, McLarty III Latin America & the President, A relatively easy to get into but very Caribbean, Kissinger McLarty expensive to get out of. Multinational firms Hewlett-Packard Co. Associates must be very careful to separate a nation's Dirk Donath Carlos Paz-Soldan rhetoric from both reality and past per- Managing Director, Partner, formance. There are high risk nations— Eton Park Capital Saul Ewing, LLP Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia, Argentina— Management Beatrice Rangel where rules of the game, both visible and Jane Eddy President & CEO, invisible, can change rapidly, without prior Managing Director, AMLA Consulting Corporate & Govt. notice. And there are high-risk sectors as José Antonio Ríos Venezuelan Telecom Minister Jesse Ratings Group, well, such as utilities and natural resources. International President, Chacon said Friday the government will Standard & Poor's The arbitrary power of the state to man- Global Crossing seize CANTV if no deal is reached with Jonathon Flott date a change in ownership level, operating shareholders over the firm's national- Andrés Rozental Senior Economist for control, asset and equity valuations, Chairman of the ization. Latin America, Africa Board of Trustees, employment rules, and repatriation terms and the Middle East, Venezuelan government file photo. Mexican Council on of profits and dividends raise the risk pre- General Motors Foreign Relations Wallace Gardner Everett Santos Vice President, President, Inside This Issue Worldwide Sales, DALEC LLC Chubb & Son Roger Scher FEATURED Q&A: When Should a Multinational News Briefs: US-Venezuela Ties; George W. Grayson Head of Latin Seek to Partner with State-Owned Firms? ........1 Mexican Interest Rates; Brazil's CVRD..............2 Professor of Govt., American The College of Trade Powers Agree to Resume Ecuador's Correa Appoints Economy Sovereign Ratings, William & Mary Stalled Global Trade Talks ....................................2 Minister to Defense Post Temporarily................3 Fitch Ratings Minister: Govt. to Seize CANTV if Advisor Profile: Brazil's Incoming No Deal Reached with Shareholders .................2 Ambassador to the US, Antonio Patriota...........3 Copyright © 2007, Inter-American Dialogue Page 1 of 4 Inter-AAmerican Dialogue’s Latin America Advisor Monday, January 29, 2007 NEWS BRIEFS Economic News move," Amorim told reporters, according to Reuters. "I see a positive disposition, but US Envoy in Venezuela Says Bags if they will come as far as we need that still are Packed, Hopes for Better Ties Trade Powers Agree to Resume has to be seen." US ambassador to Venezuela Stalled Global Trade Talks William Brownfield on Friday told Company News reporters that his "suitcases are Major powers agreed on Saturday to packed and ready" to leave the coun- resume global free trade talks, six months try after President Hugo Chavez said after they were suspended. Reuters report- Minister: Govt. to Seize CANTV if ed. "I believe we are back in business," No Deal Reached with Shareholders the day before that Brownfield could European Trade Commissioner Peter be expelled over statements relating Mandelson was quoted as saying in Davos, The Venezuelan government will seize to Chavez's plans to nationalize state Switzerland, where trade ministers from telecommunications company CANTV if utilities. But Brownfield added that 30 countries gathered on the sidelines of no deal is reached with shareholders over he considered it "important ... to the annual World Economic Forum. the firm's nationalization, Telecom concentrate on bilateral questions" Pascal Lamy, director general of the World Minister Jesse Chacon said Friday, accord- and to "improve bilateral relations," Trade Organization, said ministers agreed ing to Reuters. "If we do not get anywhere according to Reuters. it was time to return to "full-negotiating with the owners, we shall act as set out by mode" after the United States, the the law. In Venezuela, there is an expropri- Mexican Central Bank European Union, and other key member ation law that can be invoked simply by Holds Interest Rate Steady countries reported progress in recent citing the greater good of the public," Mexico's central bank held its bilateral talks. The WTO's Doha round of Chacon was quoted as telling reporters. benchmark overnight interest rate at 7 percent on Friday, according to a Web site press release. The decision I believe we are back in business. not to move rates was anticipated by “ ” the market, but analysts suggest that - Peter Mandelson higher food prices could put pres- sure on rates in the coming period. [Editor's note: see related Q&A on global talks were halted in July amid dis- Earlier this month, Venezuelan President tortilla prices in the January 18, agreements over agriculture issues, with Hugo Chavez announced plans to nation- 2007 edition of the Advisor.] the US refusing to make deeper cuts to alize CANTV—the country's biggest farm subsidies and the EU and some telecommunications company—as well as Brazil's CVRD Budgets Record developing countries refusing to lower tar- its biggest electricity distributor, $6.3 Billion for Capex This Year iffs on agricultural imports. In addition, Electricidad de Caracas. US companies Brazilian mining giant CVRD said developing countries such as Brazil are have sizeable stakes in both firms. Power Friday it has budgeted a record $6.3 resisting pressure to lower industrial tar- company AES has 87 percent of EDC, billion for investments in 2007. In a iffs. However, after recent bilateral talks while Verizon Communications' 28.5 signs have emerged that countries may be percent of CANTV is the largest single press release, the company said its willing to make more concessions. US stake in the telecom firm. Chavez said last capital expenditure budget for this Trade Representative Susan Schwab Sunday that the government would not year, not including acquisitions, is expressed "a real sense of optimism but compensate shareholders in CANTV until $1.8 billion higher than 2006. Last also sense of realism about all the work after it was nationalized, and said the gov- year, CVRD spent $21.5 billion on ahead of us," while British Prime Minister ernment would not investors pay interna- acquisitions, including $19.5 billion Tony Blair said that a deal was "more like- tional value for their stakes. stressing the to buy Canadian nickel miner Inco. ly than not ... within the next few months," stance of leading shareholder Verizon CVRD said the increase in its capital according to Reuters. Brazilian Foreign Communications would prove vital. capex budget this year is due to the Minister Celso Amorim said there could Chacon said Friday that there was not yet consolidation of new subsidiaries be a breakthrough by early April, followed a fixed price for how much the govern- and a higher concentration of finan- possibly by definitive numbers by the end ment was willing to pay to take over cial disbursement demanded by of June. He said Brazil would be flexible if CANTV, only saying that the government the US and Europe confirmed "big signals" would make a "reasonable" offer, accord- projects under development. on agriculture, and that he saw signs of US ing to Bloomberg News. He also did not willingness
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