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Ad Securitatem
AD SECURITATEM The best essays by students at the Baltic Defence College during 2017/18 Contents Foreword .............................................................................................................................................. 2 BEST ESSAYS OF THE JOINT COMMAND AND GENERAL STAFF COURSE ................... 3 Is the Operational Planning Process Immune to the Pitfalls of Group Decision- Making? MAJ Jeff Allen .................................................................................................................... 4 Can small powers have grand strategies? MAJ Vitalijus Anisimenko .............................. 17 Is the network theory the most suitable for understanding terrorist radicalisation? MAJ Deimantas Čyžius ................................................................................................................... 28 If NATO deterrence fails, can the Baltics use unconventional warfare to overcome Russian occupation? MAJ Michael D. Hoffman ...................................................................... 40 Is social network theory the most suitable for understanding terrorist radicalisation within Europe? MAJ Sean Navin.................................................................................................. 52 BEST ESSAY OF THE CIVIL SERVANTS COURSE (CSC) ..................................................... 64 What are the future prospects of the eFP in the Baltic region? Mr. Marko Brügel ......... 65 How can Latvia enhance its societal resilience to better counter Russian propaganda? -
Award-Winning Filmmaker Chris Schmidt Joins Pbs's
AWARD-WINNING FILMMAKER CHRIS SCHMIDT JOINS PBS’S SCIENCE SERIES NOVA AS SENIOR PRODUCER BOSTON, MA (April 27, 2012) —NOVA announced today that documen- tary filmmaker Chris Schmidt will join the science series as a senior pro- ducer on April 30, 2012. Schmidt joins Senior Executive Producer Paula S. Produced for PBS by the Apsell during a time of expansion for the venerable science series, which is WGBH Science Unit produced for PBS by WGBH Boston. Currently in its 39th season, NOVA remains the most-watched primetime science series on American television. “We’re extremely excited to have Chris join the NOVA team,” said Apsell, Senior Executive Producer of NOVA and NOVA scienceNOW and Director of the WGBH Science Unit who oversees on-air productions and initiatives beyond the broadcasts. “Chris brings to NOVA a proven track record of producing compelling and memorable television.” Schmidt is an Emmy Award-nominated filmmaker, who for the last 10 years has worn multiple hats for Powderhouse Productions: executive producer, writer, director and editor, to name a few. He has traveled the world to pro- duce and direct movies and television programs for the Discovery Channel, the History Channel, National Geographic and PBS. In 2011, Schmidt ex- ecutive produced the popular four-hour NOVA mini-series “Making Stuff” as well as the recent two-hour special NOVA “Hunting the Elements.” In Funding for NOVA is provided 1990, he wrote and directed Banya, the first American independent feature by David H. Koch Fund for Science, ever shot in the USSR. His independent documentary, The Puppeteer, has the Howard Hughes Medical won numerous awards. -
Capitolo 8 Gruppo.Pdf
Organizzazione Aziendale Capitolo 8, Gruppo: costruzione e dinamiche di Massimo Magni © EGEA S.p.A. Severino Salvemini (a cura di), Organizzazione Aziendale, 2017 Livello di analisi •Organizzazione •Relazioni tra individui •Individuo © EGEA S.p.A. Severino Salvemini (a cura di), Organizzazione Aziendale, 2017 Learning goal Evidenze dell’importanza del team Definizione Condizioni di utilizzo di un gruppo Tipi di gruppi Design e management di un gruppo efficace Soluzione delle patologie di gruppo © EGEA S.p.A. Severino Salvemini (a cura di), Organizzazione Aziendale, 2017 Gruppo: importanza del fenomeno 1985 --> il 20 per cento delle attività in un’organizzazione si svolge in team 2015 --> questa percentuale supera l’80 per cento PERCHÉ? ● Vantaggio cognitivo (mettere a fattor comune le conoscenze individuali) ● Vantaggio motivazionale © EGEA S.p.A. Severino Salvemini (a cura di), Organizzazione Aziendale, 2017 quando si usa il gruppo invece che l’individuo? • Problema complesso • Problema multidisciplinare • Problema con componente rilevante di creatività e innovazione • Problema che tocca una molteplicità di attori da coinvolgere • Quando le informazioni/competenze sono distribuite tra i membri del gruppo © EGEA S.p.A. Severino Salvemini (a cura di), Organizzazione Aziendale, 2017 Gruppo: definizione Insieme di tre o più individui che interagiscono e dipendono gli uni dagli altri per il raggiungimento di un obiettivo comune e che si riconoscono e sono riconosciuti come entità sociale unica. In altre parole: • I membri del gruppo condividono gli stessi obiettivi • Il gruppo sviluppa ruoli e relazioni interne • Il gruppo esiste quando gli individui riconoscono se stessi come membri e la sua esistenza è riconosciuta dall’esterno • Si basa sul processo di aggiustamento diretto e reciproco tra attori interdipendenti © EGEA S.p.A. -
Paradoxes Situations That Seems to Defy Intuition
Paradoxes Situations that seems to defy intuition PDF generated using the open source mwlib toolkit. See http://code.pediapress.com/ for more information. PDF generated at: Tue, 08 Jul 2014 07:26:17 UTC Contents Articles Introduction 1 Paradox 1 List of paradoxes 4 Paradoxical laughter 16 Decision theory 17 Abilene paradox 17 Chainstore paradox 19 Exchange paradox 22 Kavka's toxin puzzle 34 Necktie paradox 36 Economy 38 Allais paradox 38 Arrow's impossibility theorem 41 Bertrand paradox 52 Demographic-economic paradox 53 Dollar auction 56 Downs–Thomson paradox 57 Easterlin paradox 58 Ellsberg paradox 59 Green paradox 62 Icarus paradox 65 Jevons paradox 65 Leontief paradox 70 Lucas paradox 71 Metzler paradox 72 Paradox of thrift 73 Paradox of value 77 Productivity paradox 80 St. Petersburg paradox 85 Logic 92 All horses are the same color 92 Barbershop paradox 93 Carroll's paradox 96 Crocodile Dilemma 97 Drinker paradox 98 Infinite regress 101 Lottery paradox 102 Paradoxes of material implication 104 Raven paradox 107 Unexpected hanging paradox 119 What the Tortoise Said to Achilles 123 Mathematics 127 Accuracy paradox 127 Apportionment paradox 129 Banach–Tarski paradox 131 Berkson's paradox 139 Bertrand's box paradox 141 Bertrand paradox 146 Birthday problem 149 Borel–Kolmogorov paradox 163 Boy or Girl paradox 166 Burali-Forti paradox 172 Cantor's paradox 173 Coastline paradox 174 Cramer's paradox 178 Elevator paradox 179 False positive paradox 181 Gabriel's Horn 184 Galileo's paradox 187 Gambler's fallacy 188 Gödel's incompleteness theorems -
Building an Ethical Small Group (Chapter 9 of Meeting the Ethical Challenges of Leadership) Craig E
Digital Commons @ George Fox University Faculty Publications - School of Business School of Business 2018 Building an Ethical Small Group (Chapter 9 of Meeting the Ethical Challenges of Leadership) Craig E. Johnson George Fox University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.georgefox.edu/gfsb Part of the Business Commons, and the Ethics and Political Philosophy Commons Recommended Citation Johnson, Craig E., "Building an Ethical Small Group (Chapter 9 of Meeting the Ethical Challenges of Leadership)" (2018). Faculty Publications - School of Business. 94. https://digitalcommons.georgefox.edu/gfsb/94 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the School of Business at Digital Commons @ George Fox University. It has been accepted for inclusion in Faculty Publications - School of Business by an authorized administrator of Digital Commons @ George Fox University. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Building a11 Ethical Small Group Cooperation is the thorough conviction that nobody can get there unless everybody gets there. -AUTHOR VIRGINIA BURDEN TOWER Never underestimate a minority. -BRITISH PRIME MINISTER WINSTON CHURCHILL WHAT'S AHEAD This chapter examines ethical leadership in the small-group context. To help create groups that brighten rather than darken the lives of participants, leaders must foster individual ethical accountability among group members, ensure ethical group interac tion, avoid moral pitfalls, and establish ethical relationships with -
Revisiting the Abilene Paradox: a Reflection on Group Dynamics ©Copyright by Robert (Bob) Lucas
Revisiting the Abilene Paradox: A Reflection on Group Dynamics ©copyright by Robert (Bob) Lucas In 1988, George Washington University professor Jerry Harvey wrote the book The Abilene Paradox. Today the book and a video based on it are still being used to train employees in all types of organizations. The strength of the message is why the book is still viable in today’s business market. It provides insights into, among other issues, why people make bad decisions, why group think often pushes us in the wrong direction, why conflict often erupts in groups and between two people and why organizations struggle to be competitive. The central theme in the Abilene Paradox is a story told by Harvey of a how he spent a hot July day with his family in Coleman Texas in the late 1950s. According to Harvey, the temperature was 104 degrees, the wind was blowing the Texas topsoil around, and their car was a non-air-conditioned 1958 Buick. As he and his wife, mother-in-law and father-in-law sat around on the back porch sipping cold lemonade, his father-in-law made the sudden announcement, “Let’s get in the car and go to Abilene and have dinner at the cafeteria.” Harvey’s internal reaction was not a receptive one, however, his wife and ultimately his mother-in-law agreed. Not wanting to be the only dissenting voice, he also reluctantly agreed. The four-hour, 106 mile roundtrip trip was a disaster with excruciating heat and dust and poor food quality at the cafeteria. -
List of Paradoxes 1 List of Paradoxes
List of paradoxes 1 List of paradoxes This is a list of paradoxes, grouped thematically. The grouping is approximate: Paradoxes may fit into more than one category. Because of varying definitions of the term paradox, some of the following are not considered to be paradoxes by everyone. This list collects only those instances that have been termed paradox by at least one source and which have their own article. Although considered paradoxes, some of these are based on fallacious reasoning, or incomplete/faulty analysis. Logic • Barbershop paradox: The supposition that if one of two simultaneous assumptions leads to a contradiction, the other assumption is also disproved leads to paradoxical consequences. • What the Tortoise Said to Achilles "Whatever Logic is good enough to tell me is worth writing down...," also known as Carroll's paradox, not to be confused with the physical paradox of the same name. • Crocodile Dilemma: If a crocodile steals a child and promises its return if the father can correctly guess what the crocodile will do, how should the crocodile respond in the case that the father guesses that the child will not be returned? • Catch-22 (logic): In need of something which can only be had by not being in need of it. • Drinker paradox: In any pub there is a customer such that, if he or she drinks, everybody in the pub drinks. • Paradox of entailment: Inconsistent premises always make an argument valid. • Horse paradox: All horses are the same color. • Lottery paradox: There is one winning ticket in a large lottery. It is reasonable to believe of a particular lottery ticket that it is not the winning ticket, since the probability that it is the winner is so very small, but it is not reasonable to believe that no lottery ticket will win. -
Hofstra University Film Library Holdings
Hofstra University Film Library Holdings TITLE PUBLICATION INFORMATION NUMBER DATE LANG 1-800-INDIA Mitra Films and Thirteen/WNET New York producer, Anna Cater director, Safina Uberoi. VD-1181 c2006. eng 1 giant leap Palm Pictures. VD-825 2001 und 1 on 1 V-5489 c2002. eng 3 films by Louis Malle Nouvelles Editions de Films written and directed by Louis Malle. VD-1340 2006 fre produced by Argosy Pictures Corporation, a Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer picture [presented by] 3 godfathers John Ford and Merian C. Cooper produced by John Ford and Merian C. Cooper screenplay VD-1348 [2006] eng by Laurence Stallings and Frank S. Nugent directed by John Ford. Lions Gate Films, Inc. producer, Robert Altman writer, Robert Altman director, Robert 3 women VD-1333 [2004] eng Altman. Filmocom Productions with participation of the Russian Federation Ministry of Culture and financial support of the Hubert Balls Fund of the International Filmfestival Rotterdam 4 VD-1704 2006 rus produced by Yelena Yatsura concept and story by Vladimir Sorokin, Ilya Khrzhanovsky screenplay by Vladimir Sorokin directed by Ilya Khrzhanovsky. a film by Kartemquin Educational Films CPB producer/director, Maria Finitzo co- 5 girls V-5767 2001 eng producer/editor, David E. Simpson. / una produzione Cineriz ideato e dirètto da Federico Fellini prodotto da Angelo Rizzoli 8 1/2 soggètto, Federico Fellini, Ennio Flaiano scenegiatura, Federico Fellini, Tullio Pinelli, Ennio V-554 c1987. ita Flaiano, Brunello Rondi. / una produzione Cineriz ideato e dirètto da Federico Fellini prodotto da Angelo Rizzoli 8 1/2 soggètto, Federico Fellini, Ennio Flaiano scenegiatura, Federico Fellini, Tullio Pinelli, Ennio V-554 c1987. -
Jmpcat Spring21 for WEB-Edited
John Murray 3 JM Originals 37 Basic Books 39 Two Roads 43 Hodder Faith 59 John Murray Learning 79 John Murray Languages 93 Nicholas Brealey Publishing 99 Jessica Kingsley Publishers 105 contacts 112 JOHN MURRAY SPRING 2021 January 2021 Popular Science . Mental Health . Neuroscience THIS BOOK COULD FIX YOUR LIFE The Science of Self Help Helen Thomson & New Scientist ‘Helen Thomson is the science teacher you wish you’d had at school’ The Times Helen Thomson has zero desire to become a lifestyle guru, she just wants to help us understand the often surprising truths behind meditation, resilience, addiction, willpower, love, good sleep, CBT, success, dieting, antidepressants, intelligence and much, much more. • How to boost your IQ • The science of successful dating • How to break bad habits • How to get a good night’s sleep • How to win friends and influence people Full of fascinating evidence-based advice pulled from the latest research, and packed with experiments you can try on yourself (including one guaranteed to lift your mood), this book really could help fix your life. ABOUT THE AUTHOR Since 1956, New Scientist has established a world-beating Author lives in London. Author is reputation for exploring the latest developments and discoveries available for: interview, features, in science and technology. Each week New Scientist reaches festival appearances, local events. over 5,000,000 highly engaged readers around the world. Helen Thomson is an award-winning writer and author of the acclaimed Unthinkable: An Extraordinary Journey -
Deepening Democracy the Real Utopias Project
Deepening Democracy The Real Utopias Project Series editor: Erik Olin Wright The Real Utopias Project embraces a tension between dreams and practice. It is founded on the belief that what is pragmatically possible is not fixed independently of our imaginations, but is itself shaped by our visions. The fulfillment of such a belief involves ‘real utopias’: utopian ideals that are grounded in the real potentials for redesigning social institutions. In its attempt at sustaining and deepening serious discussion of radical alternatives to existing social practices, the Real Utopias Project examines various basic institutions – property rights and the market, secondary associations, the family, the welfare state, among others – and focusses on specific proposals for their fundamental redesign. The books in the series are the result of workshop conferences, at which groups of scholars are invited to respond to provocative manuscripts. Volume I ASSOCIATIONS AND DEMOCRACY Joshua Cohen and Joel Rogers Volume II EQUAL SHARES: MAKING MARKET SOCIALISM WORK John E. Roemer Volume III RECASTING EGALITARIANISM: NEW RULES FOR COMMUNITIES, STATES AND MARKETS Samuel Bowles and Herbert Gintis Volume IV DEEPENING DEMOCRACY: INSTITUTIONAL INNOVATIONS IN EMPOWERED PARTICIPATORY GOVERNANCE Archon Fung and Erik Olin Wright Deepening Democracy Institutional Innovations in Empowered Participatory Governance The Real Utopias Project IV ———————N——————— ARCHON FUNG and ERIK OLIN WRIGHT with contributions by Rebecca Neaera Abers, Gianpaolo Baiocchi, Joshua Cohen, Patrick -
Self-Sacrificial Behavior in Information Cascades
Self-sacrificial Behavior in Information Cascades 7.5 ECTS Artficial Intelligence Bachelor Thesis Olav Pelzer Dr. Erik Stei Dr. Rachel Boddy Author Supervisor & Reviewer Second Reviewer July 15th, 2020 Abstract In sequential decision making, information cascades occur when agents base their decisions on the actions of other agents, ignoring their own observations. This can cause rational agents to perform sub-optimally at group level. The problem seems to stem from a disbalance in on one hand providing new information for the group (independent behavior), and other the other hand making use of this publicly available information (dependent behavior). Carried out in extremes, the first type of behavior would ignore potentially useful information, while the latter would lead to possibly incorrect herding-behavior. In this thesis, I investigate how in-group agents should ideally balance out the use of publicly accessible information, so that they can maximize their result as a group. A solution is provided for a specific example of sequential decision making, known as the urn problem. The main finding is that a perfect balance indeed exists, and that the information provided by early actors contributes the most to the opti- mal group result. Keywords: information cascade, sequential decision making, self-sacrificial behav- ior, rational agent, group behaviour, incomplete information, game theory. 1 Contents 1 Introduction3 2 Information Cascades6 2.1 Urn Problem - Informal Analysis....................6 2.2 Urn Problem - Bayesian Analysis....................8 2.3 Definitions and Characteristics...................... 10 2.3.1 Cascade Likelihoods....................... 10 2.3.2 Cascade Fragility......................... 12 3 Group Results of Information Cascades 14 3.1 Two Extremes.............................. -
Let's Go Luna!
LET’S GO LUNA! Bios Joe Murray Creator and Executive Producer of LET’S GO LUNA! Joe Murray is an award-winning artist, animator and book author. He is the creator and executive producer behind the new upcoming PBS KIDS series, LET’S GO LUNA!, through 9 Story Media, set for release in fall of 2018. Joe Murray is also known for his groundbreaking 90’s Nickelodeon series Rocko’s Modern Life, for which he recently completed an hour special, rebooting the series for a new legion of fans. Hailing from San Jose, California, Murray is also the creator and producer of the highly rated Camp Lazlo which aired on Cartoon Network. With a combined experience of creating, directing, writing and producing over 100 hours of television, his work has garnered him two Primetime Emmy Awards, as well as, a host of international awards. He is also an award-winning independent filmmaker, with his animated films showing at Sundance, Annecy, Ottawa and other prestigious festivals. Murray resides in Southern California with his wife and four children, where he runs Joe Murray Studios. Erik Messal Cultural Anthropologist and Educational Consultant, LET’S GO LUNA! Erik Messal is an educational consultant with extensive training in cultural anthropology, experience in ethnographic fieldwork, and an M.Ed. in Multicultural Education. In addition to his degrees in cultural anthropology and multicultural education, Erik spent a semester-abroad in Egypt, and completed a year of ethnographic fieldwork in Turkey. Dual-credentialed in both English Language Arts and Social Sciences, Erik brings fifteen years of teaching experience to his current position as the educational consultant for LET’S GO LUNA! Press Contacts: Lindsey Horvitz, WNET, 212.560.6609, [email protected] Maryellen Mooney, Goodman Media International, Inc.