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Asian Strategic Review 2014: US Pivot and Asian Security S.D ASIAN STRATEGIC REVIEW 2014 US Pivot and Asian Security ASIAN STRATEGIC REVIEW 2014 US Pivot and Asian Security Editors S.D. MUNI VIVEK CHADHA INSTITUTE FOR DEFENCE STUDIES & ANALYSES NEW DELHI PENTAGON PRESS Asian Strategic Review 2014: US Pivot and Asian Security S.D. Muni, Vivek Chadha (Eds) First Published in 2014 Copyright © Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi ISBN 978-81-8274-769-2 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without first obtaining written permission of the copyright owner. Disclaimer: The views expressed in this book are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, or the Government of India. Published by PENTAGON PRESS 206, Peacock Lane, Shahpur Jat, New Delhi-110049 Phones: 011-64706243, 26491568 Telefax: 011-26490600 email: [email protected] website: www.pentagonpress.in Branch: Prime Arcade Office #11 1154 Saifee Street Opp. M.G. Road, Camp Pune-411001 Email: [email protected] In association with Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses No. 1, Development Enclave, New Delhi-110010 Phone: +91-11-26717983 Website: www.idsa.in Printed at Avantika Printers Private Limited. Contents Foreword vii List of Contributors ix US PIVOT AND ASIAN SECURITY 1. Introduction 3 S.D. Muni EVOLUTION OF US REBALANCING 2. Evolution of US Rebalancing Strategy: Implications for India 15 Arvind Gupta and Sanjeev K Shrivastav MILITARY IMPLICATIONS OF US REBALANCING 3. Military Implications of the US Rebalancing Strategy 31 Vivek Chadha 4. Restructuring the Maritime “Pivot”—Latest Developments in the US Rebalance to Asia 48 Abhijit Singh 5. Military Dimensions of US Pivot and Its Implications 69 P.K. Gautam REGIONAL AND COUNTRY PERSPECTIVES 6. US Pivot to the Asia-Pacific: Impact and Implications for West Asia 85 Rajeev Agarwal and Prasanta Kumar Pradhan 7. US Pivot to Asia and China: Rhetoric, Responses and Repercussions 105 Rukmani Gupta vi Asian Strategic Review 2014 8. Chinese Military Response to US Rebalancing Strategy 114 Mandip Singh 9. US Pivot to Asia-Pacific: Implications for the Indian Ocean Region 131 Sarabjeet Singh Parmar 10. The US Rebalancing Strategy: Responses from Southeast Asia 149 Rahul Mishra 11. Japan’s Response to the US “Pivot to Asia” 175 Shamshad A. Khan NUCLEAR DIMENSIONS 12. Pivot to Asia and Nuclearisation 189 Rajiv Nayan INDIAN PERSPECTIVE 13. India’s Approach to the Asia-Pacific 211 Arvind Gupta 14. America’s Pivot to Asia and India’s Nuanced Approach 218 Rup Narayan Das APPENDICES I. Remarks by President Obama to the Australian Parliament 235 II. America’s Engagement in the Asia-Pacific 243 Index 253 Foreword The US ‘pivot’ policy, which was subsequently rechristened as a ‘rebalance’ is possibly the most important foreign policy guideline emanating from the power corridors of Washington in the recent past. It will undoubtedly influence the strategic contours of the Asia Pacific region in the coming decade. The policy, which is still evolving, despite having received most attention as a result of its military component, is a comprehensive plan to step up US engagement, influence and impact on economic, diplomatic, ideological and strategic affairs of the region. There has been an attempt to play down the ‘China’ factor in the rebalance. However, China is and will remain a major factor in not only the military sphere, but also every other facet which defines the US rebalance. This reality becomes evident from the assessment of contributors of this year’s Asian Strategic Review (ASR). India is widely seen as a major constituent of the Asia Pacific region. The strategic flux being witnessed in the Asia Pacific accentuates the complexity involved in pursuing the country’s interests. The readjustment to changing realities is fast exposing the redundancy of seemingly well established norms. India must therefore reaffirm its commitment to this important region and play a constructive role in shaping every aspect of the region’s emergence as a peaceful, stable and economically dynamic region. It must not only reorient its outlook to the Asia Pacific region, but also evolve to the shifting dynamics. The ASR takes a wide analytical sweep to bring together one of the most comprehensive assessments of the US rebalancing strategy. It not only assesses the origins of the strategy, but also its implications in every sphere of influence. The impact of rebalancing on the region is assessed in light of US drawdown from Iraq and Afghanistan, a simultaneous refocus on Asia Pacific and the ongoing sequestration policy. The volume connects these dots in an attempt to provide a cogent picture of the strategy as well as its implications. The scholars of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) have contributed to this volume, under the guidance of Prof S.D. Muni, Distinguished Fellow, IDSA. I hope the papers in this volume will further the debate on US policy of rebalancing to Asia. New Delhi Arvind Gupta February 2014 Director General, IDSA List of Contributors Cdr Abhijit Singh is a Research Fellow at the IDSA. He looks at maritime strategic issues in the broader Indo-Pacific region, and littoral security in the Indian Ocean. Dr Arvind Gupta is the Director General IDSA. He specialises on a number of international and national security issues. Brig Mandip Singh, VSM is a Senior Fellow and Centre Coordinator for East Asia Centre at IDSA. He lectures and writes extensively on security and defence matters related to Sino-Indian relations and the PLA. Col P.K. Gautam (Retd) is a Research Fellow at IDSA. He has a number of books, chapters and articles on military matters, non-traditional security and Tibet to his credit. Dr Prasanta Kumar Pradhan is an Associate Fellow at IDSA. His areas of research interests include domestic, foreign policy and security issues in the Gulf region and the Arab world. Col Rajeev Agarwal is a Research Fellow at IDSA. His research focuses on foreign policy, regional security and strategic issues in West Asia. Dr Rahul Mishra is a Research Fellow at Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi. He specialises on political, economic, foreign policy and security aspects of countries and regional groupings of Southeast Asia. He was a researcher at IDSA from 2009-2013. Dr Rajiv Nayan is a Senior Research Associate at IDSA. He specialises in nuclear issues and export controls. Ms Rukmani Gupta was formerly an associate fellow at the IDSA. She is currently the Armed Forces Analyst for APAC with IHS Jane’s. The views expressed in this chapter are the author’s alone and are not endorsed by IHS. Dr Rup Narayan Das is a Senior Fellow at IDSA. He is presently on deputation from the Lok Sabha Secretariat of Indian Parliament, where he is the Director (Research). x Asian Strategic Review 2014 Mr Sanjeev K. Shrivastav is a researcher at IDSA. He specialises in India-US strategic partnership, foreign policy as well as domestic politics in the US. Cdr Sarabjeet Singh Parmar is a serving naval officer, presently working as a Research Fellow at IDSA. He looks at maritime security issues. Dr Shamshad A. Khan is a Research Fellow at the Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi. He focuses on various aspects of Japanese affairs. Previously, he was a researcher at IDSA. Col Vivek Chadha (Retd) is a Research Fellow at IDSA. His research areas include defence studies, countering the finance of terrorism and Indo-US relations. US PIVOT AND ASIAN SECURITY 1 Introduction S.D. Muni There are two significant developments in Asia that are recasting Asia’s strategic contours and its security concerns. One is China’s rise and its strategic assertion in the Asia-Pacific region, and the other is the US response to that in Asia under the Obama administration. The Obama administration took two landmark strategic policy decisions that may radically recast not only the US engagement with Asia but also the Asian strategic dynamics. The first decision was the withdrawal from Afghanistan by July 2014, and the second was the US strategic “pivot” to the Asia-Pacific region. Both these policy moves are related: the latter, in many significant ways, conditioned by the former. They will evolve and unfold in the due course of time depending upon a number of related variables. The “Pivot” Strategy The announcement of the “pivot to Asia” strategy was such that it qualifies to be called Obama Doctrine: a part of Obama’s “grand strategy”.1 President Obama in his address to the Australian Parliament on November 17, 2011 termed it as a “broader shift” for the US. He said: “After a decade in which we fought two wars that cost us dearly, in blood and treasure, the United States is turning our attention to the vast potential of the Asia Pacific region...As the world’s fastest- growing region—and home to more than half the global economy—the Asia Pacific is critical to achieving my highest priority and that is creating jobs and opportunity for the American people. With most of the world’s nuclear powers and some half of humanity, Asia will largely define whether the century ahead will be marked by conflict or cooperation, needless suffering or human progress. As president, I have therefore made a deliberate and strategic decision—as a Pacific nation, the United States will play a larger and long-term role in shaping this region and its future, by upholding core principles and in close partnership with allies and friends....As we end today’s wars, I have directed my national security team to make our presence and mission in Asia Pacific a top priority.”2 The “pivot to Asia” strategy has been elaborately explained and articulated 4 Asian Strategic Review 2014 by a number of President Obama’s former associates, including the Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Defence Secretary Panetta and the National Security Adviser to the President Tom Donilon.
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