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Mobilizing After Disasters in Advanced Industrial Democracies

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MOBILIZING AFTER DISASTERS IN ADVANCED INDUSTRIAL DEMOCRACIES by MIRIAM MATEJOVA B.A. (Honours), University of Northern British Columbia, 2009 M.A., Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University, 2012 A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE AND POSTDOCTORAL STUDIES (Political Science) THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA (Vancouver) April 2019 © Miriam Matejova, 2019 The following individuals certify that they have read, and recommend to the Faculty of Graduate and Postdoctoral Studies for acceptance, the dissertation entitled: Mobilizing after disasters in advanced industrial democracies in partial fulfillment of the requirements for submitted by Miriam Matejova the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science Examining Committee: Peter Dauvergne Supervisor Lisa McIntosh Sundstrom Supervisory Committee Member Catherine Corrigall-Brown Supervisory Committee Member Brian Job University Examiner Terre Satterfield University Examiner Additional Supervisory Committee Members: Supervisory Committee Member Supervisory Committee Member ii Abstract Environmental disasters are frequently catalysts for social and political change. Yet, disasters of similar scale and impact seem to encourage collective action in some cases but fail to do so in others. For example, while some large oil spills have generated mass nationwide (and international) protests, others have gone largely unnoticed and protests, if any, remained small and localized. If disasters are political triggering events, as the existing literature suggests, why do they often fail to generate large scale collective action? In fact, why do some highly damaging industrial environmental disasters succeed, and others fail to catalyze protest movements? This research strives to explain a variation in the occurrence and size of non-violent protest after industrial environmental disasters in advanced democracies. I examine the mobilizing effects of disaster type and location, the underlying societal conditions conducive to protest, and the ‘language of disasters’ in post-disaster communication. I argue that in addition to grievances, resources, political opportunities, and framing, uncertainty about disaster impacts plays a crucial role in the protest mobilization process, one that has not been fully explored by scholars. Specifically, while uncertainty may have a dampening effect on protest mobilization, this effect is conditioned by people’s pre-existing beliefs, and particularly political ideology. Left-leaning (i.e., more liberal) individuals resist the dampening effect of uncertainty, while right-leaning (i.e., more conservative) individuals embrace it. This research draws on theories of social movements and framing as well as insights from previously studied disasters; it involves an in-depth analysis of cases of industrial disasters with large environmental impacts, including the 2014 Mount Polley mine leak, the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill, and the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster. The cases were selected due to the varying protest sizes following these events. To allow for a systematic examination of different factors linked to post-disaster protest, this research employs several methods and tools, including a geographic information systems (GIS) analysis, qualitative comparative analysis (QCA), content analysis, and survey experiment. Such multi-method approach is most suitable for answering the variety and complexity of questions this research poses. iii Lay Summary This dissertation examines industrial environmental disasters – oil spills, mine leaks, and nuclear accidents – and their effect on nonviolent protest mobilization in advanced industrial democracies. Surprisingly, large environmental disasters are often met with little public response. Post-disaster protests – if they emerge at all – tend to be small and localized. To some extent, grievances, the underlying socio-economic conditions, and framing activities explain the variation in post-disaster protest emergence and growth. An additional element – one scholars have largely neglected – is uncertainty about disaster impacts, which shapes public willingness to protest through individuals’ pre-existing beliefs. Specifically, among more politically liberal individuals, uncertainty fails to discourage protest. The effect is the opposite among more conservative individuals. This comprehensive examination of industrial environmental disasters enhances our understanding of the protest mobilization process and disasters’ social impacts. Some findings can be used to improve disaster communication practices, and open opportunities for peaceful resolution of social conflict. iv Preface This dissertation is the original, unpublished, independent work of the author, Miriam Matejova. The research (and specifically Chapter 6) was approved by the University of British Columbia’s (UBC) Behavioral Research Ethics Board (BREB), BREB Number H18-00999. The experiment in Chapter 6 was conducted in collaboration with Eric Merkley. The geospatial analysis in Chapter 3 was conducted in collaboration with Devin Lussier. v Table of Contents Abstract ........................................................................................................................................................ iii Lay Summary ............................................................................................................................................... iv Preface .......................................................................................................................................................... v Table of Contents …………….………………………………………………………………………………………………….………………… vi List of Tables ............................................................................................................................................. viii List of Figures ............................................................................................................................................... x Acknowledgements ...................................................................................................................................... xi Dedication ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….… xiii Chapter 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 1 Chapter 2. Disasters and Protest: Definitions and Theoretical Framework .................................................. 9 1. Disasters in Social Science .................................................................................................................. 9 1.1 Disaster typologies ........................................................................................................................ 12 1.2 Industrial environmental disasters ................................................................................................ 15 2. Social Movements and Post-Disaster Protests ................................................................................ 17 2.1 Grievances, resources, and political opportunity structures ........................................................ 21 2.2 Framing and post-disaster protest mobilization ........................................................................... 24 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................. 26 Chapter 3. Disaster Damage and Sudden Grievances: Mapping Environmental Disasters and Protest ..... 27 1. Environmental Disasters and Grievances ....................................................................................... 28 1.1 Grievances and environmental values .......................................................................................... 29 1.2 Grievances and disaster proximity ............................................................................................... 31 1.3 Hypotheses .................................................................................................................................... 33 2. GIS Analysis ...................................................................................................................................... 36 2.1 GIS, social science, and disasters ................................................................................................. 36 2.2 Data, analysis, and mapping ......................................................................................................... 37 2.3 Discussion ..................................................................................................................................... 43 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................. 46 Chapter 4. Structural Conditions for Post-Disaster Protest ......................................................................... 52 1. Structural Conditions, Disasters, and Protest ................................................................................ 53 2. Examining Post-Disaster Protest through QCA ............................................................................ 54 2.1 Theory and raw data .................................................................................................................... 55 2.2 Set calibration and coding ...........................................................................................................
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