LEARNING FROM FUKUSHIMA NUCLEAR POWER IN EAST ASIA LEARNING FROM FUKUSHIMA NUCLEAR POWER IN EAST ASIA EDITED BY PETER VAN NESS AND MEL GURTOV WITH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM ANDREW BLAKERS, MELY CABALLERO-ANTHONY, GLORIA KUANG-JUNG HSU, AMY KING, DOUG KOPLOW, ANDERS P. MØLLER, TIMOTHY A. MOUSSEAU, M. V. RAMANA, LAUREN RICHARDSON, KALMAN A. ROBERTSON, TILMAN A. RUFF, CHRISTINA STUART, TATSUJIRO SUZUKI, AND JULIUS CESAR I. TRAJANO Published by ANU Press The Australian National University Acton ACT 2601, Australia Email: [email protected] This title is also available online at press.anu.edu.au National Library of Australia Cataloguing-in-Publication entry Title: Learning from Fukushima : nuclear power in East Asia / Peter Van Ness, Mel Gurtov, editors. ISBN: 9781760461393 (paperback) 9781760461409 (ebook) Subjects: Nuclear power plants--East Asia. Nuclear power plants--Risk assessment--East Asia. Nuclear power plants--Health aspects--East Asia. Nuclear power plants--East Asia--Evaluation. Other Creators/Contributors: Van Ness, Peter, editor. Gurtov, Melvin, editor. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher. Cover design and layout by ANU Press. Cover image: ‘Fukushima apple tree’ by Kristian Laemmle-Ruff. Near Fukushima City, 60 km from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, February 2014. The number in the artwork is the radioactivity level measured in the orchard—2.166 microsieverts per hour, around 20 times normal background radiation. This edition © 2017 ANU Press Contents Figures . vii Tables . ix Acronyms and abbreviations . xi Preface . xvii Contributors . xix Introduction: Nuclear energy in Asia . 1 Mel Gurtov Part I The state of the nuclear industry 1 . Nuclear energy policy issues in Japan after the Fukushima nuclear accident . 9 Tatsujiro Suzuki 2 . The French exception: The French nuclear power industry and its influence on political plans to transition to a new energy system . 27 Christina Stuart 3 . Energy subsidies: Global estimates, causes of variance, and gaps for the nuclear fuel cycle . 63 Doug Koplow Part II Country studies 4 . A new normal? The changing future of nuclear energy in China . 103 M . V . Ramana and Amy King 5 . Protesting policy and practice in South Korea’s nuclear energy industry . 133 Lauren Richardson 6 . Control or manipulation? Nuclear power in Taiwan . 155 Gloria Kuang-Jung Hsu 7 . Enhancing nuclear energy cooperation in ASEAN: Regional norms and challenges . 187 Mely Caballero-Anthony and Julius Cesar I . Trajano Part III The real costs of going nuclear 8 . Health implications of ionising radiation . 221 Tilman A. Ruff 9 . Nuclear energy and its ecological byproducts: Lessons from Chernobyl and Fukushima . 261 Timothy A . Mousseau and Anders P . Møller Part IV A post-nuclear future 10 . Decommissioning nuclear power reactors . 287 Kalman A . Robertson 11 . Sustainable energy options . 319 Andrew Blakers 12 . Lessons of Fukushima: Nine reasons why . 349 Peter Van Ness Figures Figure I.1 Construction starts of nuclear reactors in the world by year, 1951–2016 ...................................2 Figure 2.1 Evolution of costs and duration of construction estimates for the EPR in Flamanville .....................52 Figure 8.1 Increased lifetime cancer risk by age and gender associated with an extra radiation dose of 10 mSv ..........232 Figure 11.1 Global warming potential of greenhouse gases by economic sector over a 100-year time frame ............320 Figure 11.2 New generation capacity added in 2014 and 2015 by technology type. .321 Figure 11.3 Schematic of a typical solar cell ...................329 Figure 11.4 Shipments of photovoltaics since 2001 .............332 Figure 11.5 Wind energy shipments since 2000 ................335 vii Tables Table 1.1 Japan’s stockpile of separated plutonium ...............17 Table 2.1 The three phases of construction of the current French nuclear reactor fleet ............................32 Table 3.1 Governments transfer value to the energy sector in many different ways. .65 Table 3.2 Subsidies to fossil fuel consumers crowd out other spending priorities ...................................71 Table 3.3 Global energy subsidy estimates: Massive scale, wide range .........................................77 Table 3.4 Common areas of subsidy to the nuclear fuel cycle .......80 Table 3.5 Nuclear waste management largely unresolved, financial and technical risks borne by governments ..........85 Table 3.6 Uranium enrichment is dominated by state actors globally ................................90 Table 7.1 ASEAN electricity generation by source ..............188 Table 8.1 Common types of ionising radiation .................222 Table 8.2 Selected radioactive isotopes from nuclear power plants significant in human health impact ................224 Table 8.3 Common radioisotopes in routine releases from nuclear plants. .226 Table 8.4 Features of the Japanese hibakusha Life Span Study that tend to underestimate radiation health risks ...........234 Table 10.1 Status of all nuclear power reactors in the world, 31 December 2015 .................................292 ix LEARNING FROM FUKUSHIMA Table 10.2 Fully decommissioned nuclear power reactors in the US and current site uses, December 2015 ...........293 Table 10.3 Fully decommissioned nuclear power reactors (and selected reactors at advanced stages of decommissioning) outside the US and current site uses, December 2015 .......295 x Acronyms and abbreviations 3S safety, security, and safeguards ABWR advanced boiling water reactor ADEME Agence de l’environnement et de la maîtrise de l’énergie AEC Atomic Energy Council AELB Atomic Energy Licensing Board ANU The Australian National University APP atomic power plant Areva NC Areva Nuclear Cycle Areva NP Areva Nuclear Power ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations ASEANTOM ASEAN Network of Regulatory Bodies on Atomic Energy ASN Autorité de sûreté nucléaire AUM assets under management BAPETEN Nuclear Energy Regulatory Agency of Indonesia BATAN National Nuclear Energy Agency of Indonesia BEIR Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation Bq becquerel Bq/m3 becquerel per cubic metre BWR boiling water reactor CAC40 Commissariat aux Comptes 40 CCS carbon capture and storage CEA Commissariat à l’énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives xi LEARNING FROM FUKUSHIMA CGNPC China General Nuclear Power Corporation CI confidence intervals CIA Central Intelligence Agency Cigéo Centre industriel de stockage géologique CNEA China National Energy Administration CNNC China National Nuclear Corporation CNRS Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique CO2 carbon dioxide COP Conference of the Parties CP Contract Programme CPV concentrating photovoltaics CSSI Chung Shan Science Institute CT computed tomography CWIP construction work-in-progress DPP Democratic Progressive Party EDF Électricité de France EIA Environmental Impact Assessment EPR European pressurised reactor ESBWR economic simplified boiling water reactor EU European Union FBR fast breeder reactor FEPC Federation of Electric Power Companies GCR gas-cooled, graphite-moderated reactor GDP gross domestic product GE General Electric GW gigawatt GWe gigawatt electric GWh gigawatt hour Gy gray HLW high-level radioactive waste HTGR high-temperature gas-cooled reactor HVDC high voltage direct current xii ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS HWGCR heavy water–moderated, gas-cooled reactor IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency ICRP International Commission on Radiological Protection IEA International Energy Agency IMF International Monetary Fund INER Institute of Nuclear Energy Research INES International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale IU Indiana University JAEA Japan Atomic Energy Agency JAEC Japan Atomic Energy Commission kBq/m2 kilobecquerel per square metre KEPCO Korea Electric Power Company KFEM Korean Federation for Environmental Movements KHNP Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power KMT Kuomintang kV kilovolt kW kilowatt kWh kilowatt hour kW/m2 kilowatt per square metre LCOE levelised cost of energy LNT linear no-threshold LWR light-water reactor METI Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry mGy milliGray MNPC Malaysia Nuclear Power Cooperation mSv milliSievert MW megawatt MWe megawatt electric MWh megawatt hour NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NDRC National Development and Reform Commission xiii LEARNING FROM FUKUSHIMA NEA Nuclear Energy Agency NEC-SSN Nuclear Energy Cooperation Sub-Sector Network NEPIO Nuclear Energy Program Implementing Organisation NGO non-governmental organisation NPP nuclear power plant NRC Nuclear Regulatory Commission NSSC Nuclear Safety and Security Commission NTS Non-Traditional Security OAP Office of Atoms for Peace OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development PHES pumped hydro energy storage PHWR pressurised heavy-water reactor PRIS Power Reactor Information System Pu plutonium PV photovoltaics PWR pressurised water reactor RECNA Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition RSIS S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies SCGR sodium-cooled, graphite-moderated reactor SNPTC State Nuclear Power Technology Corporation SOE state-owned enterprise Sv sievert TECRO Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office TEPCO Tokyo Electric Power Company TFU Tohoku Fukushi University tHM tonnes of heavy metal TSE Total Support Estimate TWh terawatt hour UAE United Arab Emirates UK United Kingdom xiv ACRONYMS