China Electric Bus Industry Report, 2018-2021 2018 2021
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China Electric Bus Industry Report, 2018-2021 June 2018 STUDY GOAL AND OBJECTIVES METHODOLOGY This report provides the industry executives with strategically signifisignificantcant Both primary and secondary research methodologies were used competitor information, analysis, insight and projection on the in preparing this study. Initially, a comprehensive and exhaustive competitive pattern and key companies in the industry, crucial to the search of the literature on this industry was conducted. These development and implementation of effective business, marketing and sources included related books and journals, trade literature, R&D programs. marketing literature, other product/promotional literature, annual reports, security analyst reports, and other publications. REPORT OBJECTIVES Subsequently, telephone interviews or email correspondence TtblihTo establish a compre hiftlhensive, factual, annua lldtddtlly updated and cost- was conducted with marketing executives etc. Other sources effective information base on market size, competition patterns, included related magazines, academics, and consulting market segments, goals and strategies of the leading players in the companies. market, reviews and forecasts. To assist potential market entrants in evaluating prospective INFORMATION SOURCES acquisition and joint venture candidates. The primary information sources include Company Reports, To complement the organizations’ internal competitor information and National Bureau of Statistics of China etc. gathering efforts with strategic analysis, data interpretation and insight. To suggest for concerned investors in line with the current development of this industry as well as the development tendency . To help company to succeed in a competitive market, and Copyright 2012 ResearchInChina understand the size and growth rate of any opportunity. Room 509, 1+1 Building, No. 10, Caihefang Road, Haidian District, Beijing, China 100080 Phone: +86 10 82600828 ● Fax: +86 10 82601570 ● www.researchinchina.com ● [email protected] Abstract Due to rushed installation in 2016, the output of electric buses fell by 22.2% over the previous year in China, to 105,000 units in 2017. Higher threshold of new energy bus subsidy policies greatly affected the Chinese new energy bus market in the first half of 2017. The market picked up in the second half of the year because of clearer trend in policy adjustment. Besides subsidies, there are more policy supports for new energy vehicle, and the demand from city bus and coach going electric will continucontinuee to expand over the next couple of years. However,t, the new energy bus market is still dominated by city bus and logistics vehicle, and other passenger transport markets remain to be tapped. The new subsidy policy, introduced in Feb 2018, put forward higher requirements on Ekg compared with the 2017 version. The subsidies for plug-in electric bus were halved on the basis of the 2017 level. Output mix: In 2017, battery electric bus output was 88,556 units, down 23.4% year on year and accounting for 84.2% of total new energy buses; 8-10m and 10m-and-above battery electric bus models prevailed. About 76% of city bus sales in 2017 were new energy ones, but its penetration in bus stock market in tier-three or four cities remains low. Given that the country lowers subsidies for fuel-ppyowered city-bus yyygear after year and gives more su ppypport for electric city bus and the positive externality of new energy city-bus towards municipal administration and environment is distinct, it is expected the trend of city-bus going electric will continue and the penetration of new energy buses in existing city buses will be lifted further. Provinces like Guangdong, Hebei, Henan, Shaanxi and Hainan have rolled out plans to help implementation of new energy city bus promotion programmes. Against the backdrop of subsidy transition, new energy bus shined in the first quarter of 2018, with single-season sales totaling 8,607 units, a year-on-year upsurge of 320.7%, including 8,198 city buses or 95.2%, up 308.67% over the same period of last year, largely thanks to extension of the 2017 subsidy policy. Following the end of transitional period, the subsidies come down but technical requirements grow stricter. Moreover, new capacity built in the past few years under the stimulation of policies will go into production. As a result, output and sales of new energy buses are unlikely to grow remarkably; the industry will be further reshuffled, with small new energy bus producers utterly relying on subsidies to be phased out from the market. Copyright 2012ResearchInChina Room 509, 1+1 Building, No. 10, Caihefang Road, Haidian District, Beijing, China 100080 Phone: +86 10 82600828 ● Fax: +86 10 82601570 ● www.researchinchina.com ● [email protected] Given increments contributed by urbanization to the city bus market, especially the new energy city bus increments in tier-three or four cities, as well as higher penetration in intercity coach market following maturitmaturityy of new energy technology and cost reduction, the output and sales of new energy buses are expected to surpass 150,000 units in 2021. China Electric Bus Industry Report, 2018-2021 focuses on the followings: Significance of electric bus popularization, status quo, and trends at home and abroad Mainstream technical routes of electric bus in China, status quo and trend of bus battery, motor and electronic control industry chain; Major subsidies for purchase (tax reduction & exemption and fiscal subsidies) and for use as well as popularization policies in China electric bus industry; China’s electric bus production, sales and future trend, competition pattern, market share, sales forecast, investment and capacity of major electric bus enterprises; China’ s electric city bus sales, penetration, subsidy policies, etc.; Level of technology, scale of production and sales, capacity and development planning of 12 major electric bus manufacturers in China. Copyright 2012ResearchInChina Room 509, 1+1 Building, No. 10, Caihefang Road, Haidian District, Beijing, China 100080 Phone: +86 10 82600828 ● Fax: +86 10 82601570 ● www.researchinchina.com ● [email protected] Table of contents 4 Chinese Electric Bus Market 5.3.4 Bus Businesses 1 Overview of Electric Bus 4.1 Electric Bus Market 5.3.5 Bus Capacity 1.1 Significance of Promotion 411O4.1.1 Overa ll 54N5.4 Nan jing Go lden Dragon Bus Co., Ltd. 1.2 Environmental Friendliness and Economy 4.1.2 Electric City Bus Market 5.4.1 Profile 1.2.1 Environmental Friendliness 4.1.3 Competition among Enterprises 5.4.2 Electric Bus Business 1.2.2 Economy 4.1.4 Investment and Capacity 5.5 Zhongtong Bus Holding Co., Ltd. 1.3 Status Quo and Trends of Promotion in China 4.2 Bus Market 5.5.1 Profile 1. 3. 1 Main Varieties of Electric Buses Being Promoted 4.2.1 Overall 5.5.2 Operating Data 1.3.2 Electric Intercity Coach Will Be New Growth Driver 4.2.2 Competition among Enterprises 5.5.3 Electric Bus Business 1.3.3 Battery Electric City Bus Will Be Main Direction 5.5.4 Bus Business over the Next Four Years 5 Chinese Electric Bus Manufacturers 5.5.5 Bus Capacity 1.4 Status Quo and Trends of Promotion Abroad 5. 1 Zhengzhou Yutong Bus Co., Ltd. 565.6 Beiqi Foton Motor Co., Ltd. 1. 4. 1 Sta tus Quo of El ect ri c Cit y Bus Promo tion Abroa d 5.1.1 Profile 5.6.1 Profile 1.4.2 Technical Trends of Electric City Bus Abroad 5.1.2 Operating Data 5.6.2 Operating Data 5.1.3 Electric Bus Business 5.6.3 Electric Bus Business 2 Industry Chain 5.1.4 Bus Businesses 5.6.4 Bus Business 2.1 Technology Roadmap 515B5.1.5 Bus Capac ity 565B5.6.5 Bus Capac ity 2.2 Battery 5.1.6 Spare Parts 5.7 Shanghai Sunwin Bus Corporation 2.3 Electric Motor and Controller 5.2 BYD 5.7.1 Profile 5.2.1 Profile 5.7.2 Electric Bus Business 3 Major Industrial Policies 5.2.2 Operating Data 5.7.3 Bus Businesses 3. 1 Purchase Tax Relief 5.2.3 Electric Bus Business 5.7.4 Capacity 3.2 Financial Subsidies 5.2.4 Battery Business 5.8 Hunan CSR Times Electric Vehicle Co., Ltd. 3.2.1 New Energy Bus Subsidy Policies in 2018 5.2.5 Electric Vehicle Business 5.9 Anhui Ankai Automobile Co., Ltd. 3.2.2 Fuel-cell Bus Subsidy Policies in 2018 5.3 Xiamen King Long Motor Group Co., Ltd. 5.10 Jinhua Youngman Automobile Manufacturing 3.3 Fuel Subsidy Removal Policy 5.3.1 Profile 5.11 Chongqing Hengtong Bus Co., Ltd. 34EVP3.4 EV Promo tion Po liilicies 5.3.2 Operating Data 5.12 Shenzhen Wuzhoulong Motors Co., Ltd. 5.3.3 Electric Bus Business Room 509, 1+1 Building, No. 10, Caihefang Road, Haidian District, Beijing, China 100080 Phone: +86 10 82600828 ● Fax: +86 10 82601570 ● www.researchinchina.com ● [email protected] Selected Charts • City Bus Ownership in China, 2008-2017 • Structure of Urban Passenger Traffic in China, 2011-2017 • Vehicle Pollutant Emission • CO2 Emission of Various City Buses Per Km (g/km, vehicle) • Pollutant Emission of Various City Buses inside City (Kg/a, vehicle) • Pollutant Emission of Various Cityyy(g) Buses outside City (Kg/a, vehicle) • Overall Pollutant Emission of Various City Buses (Kg/a, vehicle) • Total Costs of Various City Buses during Whole Life Cycle – before Subsidies (RMB10,000) • Total Costs of Various City Buses during Whole Life Cycle – after Purchase Subsidies (RMB10,000) • Total Costs of Various City Buses during Whole Life Cycle – after Purchase and Fuel Subsidies (RMB10,000) • Results of Comprehensive Comparison among Different Technology Roadmaps • Promotion of Electric City Buses Worldwide • Technical Sketch Map of Wireless