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Laying Solid Foundation, Valuation Attractive 奠定坚实的基础，估值有吸引力

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Laying Solid Foundation, Valuation Attractive 奠定坚实的基础，估值有吸引力 股 票 研 [Table_Title] Company Report: Geely Automobile (00175 HK) Toliver Ma 马守彰 究 (852) 2509 5317 Equity Research 公司报告： 吉利汽车 (00175 HK) [email protected] 9 January 2019 [Table_Summary] Laying Solid Foundation, Valuation Attractive 奠定坚实的基础，估值有吸引力 Geely sales in 2018 was reached 1,500,838 units, up 20.3% yoy. Full-year 公 Rating:[Table_Rank ] Buy sales was below our expectation and management guidance as growth in Maintained 司 Dec. 2018 was disappointing. We believe that Lynk & Co's potential was dragged by engine shortages but the Company is all set for 2019. Further, 报 评级： 买入 (维持) sales will gradually shift to models produced on new platforms, such as the 告 BMA platform. 6[Table_Price-18m TP 目标价] : HK$14.70 Company Report Geely has a diversified portfolio and strong strategy plan for Revised from 原目标价: HK$22.80 sustainable growth. In our view, the weakened growth rate of Geely does Share price 股价: HK$10.220 not negatively affect its position in the market in our view, but a mere adjustment of earnings expectation. We believe that Geely will continue to be a strong market player in China. This is because Geely is on a distinguished Stock performance path from other self-owned brands. 股价表现 We have reduced our profit forecasts by 10.2%/ 23.0%/ 17.6% to RMB [Table_QuotePic] 12,628 million/ RMB 13,593 million/ RMB 16,989 million for 2018 to 2020, 20.0 % of return 10.0 respectively. 0.0 Valuation continued to drop in 2019 as the slowdown in sales in recent (10.0) 证 months and conservative management guidance triggered lower growth (20.0) 券 告 expectations, reducing the premium for Geely. We remain confident for the (30.0) (40.0) 研 报 Company to maintain growth in the next few years, despite it being slower. (50.0) Nonetheless, we expect market position to continue to strengthen upon 究 究 industry consolidation. Valuation has dropped below the long-term historical (60.0) 报 mean, trading at 12M forward 6.6x PER. We reiterate "Buy" rating for (70.0) 研 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Geely Auto, but revise downwards TP to HK$14.70 on earnings 告 HSI Index GEELY AUTOMOBILE 券 revisions, representing 8.5x 2019 PER and 6.8x 2020 PER. Equity Research Report 证 2018 年吉利汽车销量为 1.5 百万辆，同比增长 20.3％。销售是低于我们的预期和管理层 指引，因 2018 年 12 月的增长令人失望。我们认为领克的潜力受到发动机短缺的拖累，但 [Table_PriceChange] [Tab Change in Share Price 1 M 3 M 1 Y 2019 年公司将会充分准备。此外，销售将逐渐转向新平台上生产的车型，如 BMA 平台。 股价变动 个月 个月 年 1 3 1 le_I Abs. % (28.6) (27.7) (63.2) 汽 吉利汽车拥有多元化的投资组合和强大的可持续发展战略计划。我们认为吉利汽车的疲弱 绝对变动 % nfo1 增长率并未对它在市场中的地位产生负面影响，而只是盈利预期的调整。我们相信吉利汽 Rel. % to HS Index 车 (27.9) (26.5) (46.9) 车将继续成为中国强大的市场参与者之一。这是因为吉利汽车走在一条与其他自主品牌截 相对恒指变动 % 及 Avg. Share price(HK$) ] 13.4 14.4 19.3 然不同的道路上。 平均股价（港元） 零 Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. 部 我们将 2018 年至 2020 年的盈利预测分别下调 10.2％/ 23.0％/ 17.6％至人民币 12,628 / 13,593 / 16,989 百万元。 件 行 由于最近几个月的销售放缓以及保守的管理层指引引发了较低的增长预期并降低了吉利 的溢价，估值在 年继续下降。尽管速度放缓，我们仍对公司未来几年的增长保持信 业 2019 心。尽管如此，我们预计在行业整合中公司的市场地位将继续增强。估值已跌破长期历史 均值，12 个月预测估值为 6.6 倍市盈率。我们重申对吉利汽车的“买入”评级，但在盈利 修正后下调目标价至 14.70 港元，相当于 8.5 倍 2019 年市盈率和 6.8 倍 2020 年市盈率。 Automobiles & Components Sector Automobiles & Components Y[Table_ear End Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER BPS PBR DPS Yield ROE [Tab 年结Profit ] 收入 股东净利 每股净利 每股净利变动 市盈率 每股净资产 市净率 每股股息 股息率 净资产收益率 le_I 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) (△ %) (x) (RMB) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) 2016A 53,722 5,112 0.580 125.7 15.8 2.776 3.3 0.120 1.3 23.3 nfo2 2017A 92,761 10,634 1.198 106.6 7.1 3.908 2.2 0.290 3.4 36.1 中] 2018F 107,114 12,628 1.414 18.0 6.4 5.031 1.8 0.361 4.0 31.8 2019F 97,696 13,593 1.522 7.6 5.9 6.265 1.4 0.392 4.4 26.9 吉外 2020F 113,180 16,989 1.902 25.0 4.7 7.858 1.1 0.495 5.5 26.9 利运 汽 [Table_BaseData]Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 8,972.9 Major shareholder 大股东 Geely Holding 42.7% 输 Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 91,703.0 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 57.3 车 3 month average vol. 3 个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 55,452.4 FY19 Net gearing (%) FY19 净负债/股东资金 (%) Net Cash 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52 周高/低 (HK$) 28.450 / 10.080 FY19 Est. NAV (HK$) FY19 每股估值（港元） 18.4 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. Geely Automobile (00175Geely HK) Automobile See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 9 [Table_PageHeader]Geely Automobile (00175 HK) SALES AND OUTLOOK ] 1 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ Geely Auto ("Geely" or the "Company") suffered a major setback in Dec. 2018 but aims for steady development in the future. Geely recorded the lowest sales volume since Jul. 2017 in Dec. 2018, with only 93,333 units delivered. This represents yoy decrease of 39.2%, the first decline in 4 years. This was unexpected especially in Dec. which is normally a month to boost volume for automakers. The weak sales in December dragged full-year sales to only 1,508,838 units in 2018, missing our previous expectation and management guidance. Despite that, Geely Auto still had decent 20.3% yoy improvement in 2018, January 2019 leading their market share in the PV market which continued to rise since 2015 and strengthened their market position. Currently, 9 Geely is the third largest automaker in China, lagging behind General Motors and Volkswagen. The management set guidance of 1.51 million units of sales in 2019, which is more conservative than our 2019 forecast. We believe that the Company is taking this chance to revamp its product portfolio, and to lay a stronger foundation for future opportunities and development. There are several points to take away from Geely’s sales. Figure-1: Geely’s Sales Volume and Growth Figure-2: Geely’s PV Market Share 2016 2017 Units 2018 2017 growth PV market share 200,000 2018 growth 200% 7.0% 6.6% 6.0% 150% ] 2 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ 150,000 5.0% 5.0% 100% 4.0% 100,000 3.2% 50% 3.0% 2.4% 50,000 2.0% 0% 1.0% - -50% 0.0% Jul Oct Apr Jun Jan 2015 2016 2017 2018 Mar Feb Aug Nov Dec Sep May Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. Source: the Company, CAAM, Guotai Junan International. (00175 HK) I. Lynk & Co’s potential was dragged by engine shortages but the Company is all set for 2019 One major factor that contributed to the disappointment is that Lynk & Co. failed to ramp up due to the shortages of their 2.0T 吉利汽车 engine. The 2.0T engine is produced in Luqiao factory, which is also used to produce the Volvo XC40. This largely limited sales growth as a more powerful engines are more sought after options for most Lynk vehicle buyers. We believe next year will be Lynk’s year, as the new engine facility will commence production in 1Q19, which will unleash Lynk’s potential. It is in our view that demand for the Lynk 01 is still very strong, with about 80% of sales coming from the Pro version (MSRP RMB 180,000). In addition, it is noted that a considerable amount of new customers are switching from major JV brands, indicating initial success of Geely Automobile making a presence in the mid-to-high range. In terms of channel, there are currently 200 dealers and about 110 new additions in operation in the coming year. Figure-3: Lynk & Co. Sales Volume Figure-4: Sales Mix in Lynk & Co. Units 10% 16,000 9% 14,000 8% 7% 12,000 6% 10,000 5% 8,000 4% 6,000 3% 4,000 2% 2,000 1% 0% 0 Report Jul-18 Jul-18 Apr-18 Oct-18 Jan-18 Jun-18 Mar-18 Feb-18 Oct-18 Apr-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jun-18 Jan-18 May-18 Mar-18 Feb-18 Dec-17 Nov-18 Dec-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 May-18 Company Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. Source: the Company, CPCA, CAAM, Guotai Junan International. See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 9 [Table_PageHeader]Geely Automobile (00175 HK) II. Newer models of Geely brand lack sustainability ] 1 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ Excluding sales of Lynk & Co., sales of Geely brand decreased 40.4% yoy in Dec. 2018, but still recorded yoy improvement of 11.3% in 2018. The improvement was mainly from the full-year effect of several Vision models, including the X1, X3 and S1, which added 132,690 units of sales in 2018. However, there are a number of dragging factors. 1) We noticed the decline in the lower-end "Vision" series was more obvious and prevalent, which reflected the stiffer competition in the lower-end market (the vision models are marketed as lower-end models with the X1 starting from only RMB39,900 and the S1 entry price of January 2019 RMB69,900). The intense competition in the lower-end segment and weakened purchasing power in lower-tier cities negatively 9 impacted demand for the "Vision" series; and 2) sales of key models, the Vision SUV/ Emgrand GS/ New Emgrand/ Boyue, had a combined sales accounting for 47.9% of total sales, recording decreased sales of 4.9%/ 5.8%/ 5.4%/ 10.2% in 2018, respectively, due to aging reasons; and 3) a large model line up (18 models offered in 2018), with new models potentially cannibalizing old models.
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