Exploring the Universe: Cooperation or Competition?

European Forum Alpbach 2013

Shuang-Nan Zhang Director, Center for Particle Astrophysics Institute of High Energy Physics Chief Scientist, Space Science Division National Astronomical Observatories Chinese Academy of Sciences

1 Day 1

2 Ways of learning

 Write down one thing you think you are good at doing  Write down how you learnt of doing this  Choose and write down one of these answers:

 (1) From lecturing in classroom

 (2) By yourself: reading, asking, discussion, practicing

 (3) Other

3 Importance of asking and discussion

 The greatest scholar and teacher in Chinese history, Confucius (孔夫子), told us: “Among every three people, there must be someone who know more than me (三人一 行，必有我师)”  The Nobel Laureate C.N. Yang (杨振宁) once said “Most of my knowledge comes from asking and discussing with my fellow students”.  In Chinese, an intellectual is called “a person learning by asking (有学问的人)”

4 Nobel Laureate C.N. Yang (杨振宁) and me

C.N. Yang is the “person learning by asking (有学问的人)”

5 (爱因斯坦) and me

I am the “person learning by asking (有学问的人)”

6 Traditional and interactive teaching

 Traditional teaching: one directional delivery of information from the teacher to students (notebooks)

 Role of teacher: information delivery

 Success measured by rate of information delivered  Interactive teaching: asking + discussion

 Role of teacher: stimulate and moderate the process

 Success measured by rate of information received

 Just like communications: it only matters how much is received at the receiver’s end!  Barriers must be removed for efficient communications.

7 Interruptions are invited during these seminars

 You are invited to interrupt me during at any time

 Asking questions, making points and comments, and even challenging me.

 Any language is allowed, though I only understand Chinese and English.  Of course I will ask you many questions!

 Please watch out for each and every “?” in my presentations.

8 Day 2

9 10 Explorations vs. Observations

 Explorations:

 Be there, do there, and return from there

 In site, microscope, robotic, human participation

 Direct knowledge, but limited scope and range  Observations:

 Learn what’s going on elsewhere in the universe, but at or near home

 Remote, , automatic

 A lot of guess work, but vast scope and range

11 We all love tourism!

12 But why tourism?

 Much more beautiful pictures and exhaustive information available on the internet

 But why do we still want to spend a lot of money, time, energy, and face various risks to go these places, and take photos?  Be there, do there, and even showing-off  Delicious foods, exotic cultures, different laws, beautiful girls and boys…

13 Power of being there or close-by

 What can be done only when being there?  Collecting, digging, interacting, taking photos with a human in it, and even risking lives…  What can be done better when close-by? 2  flux = emitted/4πD  D is distance of the source 2 2  received=flux*πR = emitted*(R /2D)  R is aperture radius of the telescope/microscope  Sometimes easier to get thousands-millions times closer, but hard to make a telescope/microscope thousands-millions times larger!

14 But why (remote) observations?

 Convenient: are made at home (), so better try them out at home first  Cheaper: sending telescopes far away from home is costly  Correct: still not possible to send a telescope near a star outside the system; never possible beyond the Milky Way 3  C law

15 Why out of earth to observe?

16 Lunar explorations as examples of space explorations

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exploration_of_the_Moon

17 Chang’E: a beautiful girl lives in the palace of

Princess Kaguya, moon godness of Japan

18 Lunar explorations: again and again, and more and more nations?

?  Science?  Technology?  Military?  National pride?  Cooperation or competition?

19 1958-1959 erupts Year Mission Country Objective Result 1958 Pioneer 0 USA Orbiter Launch failure 1958 E-1 No.1 USSR Impactor Launch failure 1958 USA Orbiter Launch failure 1958 Luna E-1 No.2 USSR Impactor Launch failure 1958 USA Orbiter Launch failure 1958 Luna E-1 No.3 USSR Impactor Launch failure 1958 USA Launch failure 1959 USSR Impactor Partial success (first successful flyby 5,995 km) 1959 USA Flyby Partial success (flyby 60,000 km) 1959 Luna E-1A No.1 USSR Impactor Launch failure USSR Success (first reaching the moon surface, impacted east of Mare Serenitatis, discovered time variations 1959 Impactor in the electron flux and energy spectrum in the ) 1959 Pioneer P-1 USA Orbiter Launch failure 1959 USSR Flyby Success (first pictures of Moon far side) 1959 Pioneer P-3 USA Orbiter Launch failure 7/yr, mostly failures, but USSR won anyway

20 1960-1965 space race continues

1960 Luna E-3 No.1, 2 USSR Flyby Launch failure 1960 Pioneer P-30, 31 USA Orbiter Launch failure 1962 , 4, 5 USA Impactor Failure (flyby; crashed at Moon far-side; flyby) 1963 Luna E-6 No.2, 3 USSR Lander Launched into wrong ; Launch failure 1963 USSR Lander Failure (flyby) 1964 USA Impactor Failure (TV camera, only instrument, did not work) 1964 Luna E-6 No.5, 6 USSR Lander Launch failure 1964 USA Impactor Success 1965 USA Impactor Success 1965 Cosmos 60 USSR Lander Failed to leave Earth orbit 1965 USA Impactor Success 1965 Luna E-6 No.8 USSR Lander Launch failure 1965 , 6 USSR Lander Failure (crashed at Sea of Clouds; flyby) 1965 USSR Flyby Success 1965 , 8 USSR Lander Failure (crashed at )

3.8/year, still mostly failures, but USA faired better

21 1966-1967 space race speeds up USSR Success (first pictures from Moon surface, landed 1966 Lander at Oceanus Procellarum) 1966 Cosmos 111 USSR Orbiter Launched into wrong orbit 1966 USSR Orbiter Success (first lunar orbiter) 1966 USA Lander Success (landed at Oceanus Procellarum) 1966 USA Orbiter Success 1966 USSR Orbiter Success 1966 USA Lander Failure (crashed near Copernicus crater) 1966 USSR Orbiter Success 1966 USA Orbiter Success 1966 USSR Lander Success (landed at Oceanus Procellarum) 1967 USA Orbiter Partial success (picture acquisition cut short) 1967 USA Lander Success 1967 USA Orbiter Partial success (picture acquisition cut short) 1967 USA Lander Failure 1967 USA Orbiter Success 1967 , 6 USA Lander Success 8.5/year, mostly successes, USA began to lead

22 1968-1969 space race heats up: Program

1968 USA Lander Success 1968 Luna E-6LS No.112 USSR Lander Launch failure 1968 USSR Orbiter Success USSR Success (first spacecraft and living beings to 1968 , 6 Flyby return to Earth from lunar flyby); Partial success 1968 USA Orbiter Success (first manned lunar orbiter) 1969 Luna E-8 No.201 USSR Rover Launch failure 1969 USA Orbiter Success (lander test in Moon orbit) 1969 Luna E-8-5 No.402 USSR Sample return Launch failure 1969 USSR Sample return Failure (crashed at ) 1969 USA Orbiter Success USA Success (21.5 kg of lunar rocks retrieved, 1969 Sample return first humans on the Moon surface) 1969 Zond 7 USSR Flyby Success 1969 Cosmos 300, 305 USSR Sample return Launched into wrong orbit 1969 USA Orbiter Success 1969 USA Sample return Success 8.5/year, mostly successes, USA won: on the moon!

23 1970-1971 space race continues

1970 USA Sample return Failure (flyby, crew returned to Earth) 1970 S-IV USA Impactor Success 1970 Luna E-8-5 No.405 USSR Sample return Launch failure 1970 USSR Sample return Success (first robotic lunar sample return, 101 g) 1970 Zond 8 USSR Flyby Success 1970 USSR Lander Success (soft-landed the ) 1970 Lunokhod 1 USSR Rover Success (First , travelled 10,54 km) 1971 USA Orbiter Success 1971 USA Sample return Success 1971 USA Orbiter Success 1971 USA Sample return Success (first manned ) USA Success (measured plasma, energetic particle 1971 PFS-1 Orbiter intensities and lunar magnetic fields) 1971 USSR Sample return Failure 1971 USSR Orbiter Success

7/year, mostly successes, USA continued to lead.

24 1972-1976 space race ends! USSR Sample 1972 Success return 1972 USA Orbiter Success USA Sample 1972 Success return 1972 PFS-2 USA Orbiter Partial success (orbit decayed earlier than anticipated) 1972 USA Orbiter Success USA Sample 1972 Success (first geologist on the Moon) return 1973 USSR Lander Success (soft-landed the ) 1973 Lunokhod 2 USSR Rover Success (longest rover journey on a celestial body, 37 km) 1974 USSR Orbiter Success USSR Sample 1974 Partial success (sample drilling failed) return USSR Sample 1976 Success return USA finished with a clear victory; USSR ended its lunar program in 1976, coincided with the death of Mao that ended culture revolution in China.

25 1990-2011 new lunar exploration: global space race? 1990 Japan Orbiter first aerobraking maneuver by a deep ) 1994 USA Orbiter 1998 Lunar USA Orbiter 2003 SMART-1 Europe Orbiter first use of an ion engine to reach the Moon 2007 SELENE (Kaguya) Japan Orbiter 2007 Chang'e 1 China Orbiter/impactor 2008 Chandrayaan-1 India Orbiter discovery of water on the moon 2008 India Impactor first Asian object on the surface of the moon Lunar Reconnaissance USA 2009 Orbiter Orbiter Shepherding spacecraft USA 2009 Impactor near observation of impact (LCROSS) Centaur upper stage USA 2009 Impactor (LCROSS) 2010 Chang'e 2 China Orbiter on extended mission to asteroid 4179 Toutatis 2010 ARTEMIS USA Orbiter Gravity Recovery and USA 2011 Two orbiters Interior Laboratory No USSR/; Japan leads four new players; USA still leads!

26 Statistics

Periods Before and in 1967 After 1967 After 1990 Nations USA USSR USA USSR others Total 27 27 26 23 7 Failures 14 18 1 8 0 Successes 13 9 25 15 7

Notice the very high failure rate of USSR’s lunar (and other deep space) exploration activities.

27 Summary

 1st peak (space race: 1958-1976): 108 spacecrafts (52% failures; USSR 72% failures); 382 kg samples returned from 6 manned (USA) and 3 robotic (USSR) missions.  Quite period: 1976-1994  Return to moon: from 1994

28  Space and aerospace technology and industry  Many new technologies and industries  Lunar and planetary science, solar system origin  Inspirations of new generations  End of the cold war?

29 Future Plan Any hope for cooperation?

Year Name Country Elements Notes USA Instruments will include a dust detector, a neutral mass 2013 LADEE Orbiter spectrometer, an ultraviolet-visible spectrometer, and a laser communications terminal. 2013 Chang'e 3 China Lander, Rover Six-wheeled lunar vehicle to be landed at Sinus Iridum. Russia Lander to explore the polar regions of the Moon, as well as testing 2015 Luna-Glob Lander landing technologies. Astrobotic USA First scheduled launch of a private lander, rover and moon payload 2015 Lander, Rover Technology (private) competing for various prizes including the . Russia Orbiter to include astrophysics experiments, dust monitors, plasma 2016 Luna-Glob Orbiter sensors, including the LORD astronomy payload, designed to study ultra-high-energy cosmic rays. 2016 Chang'e 4 China Rover Back-up to Chang'e 3 India/ Orbiter to carry five payloads, three new, while other two are Chandrayaan-2 / Orbiter, lander, 2017 Russia improved versions of those on Chandrayaan-1.The Russian Federal Luna-Resurs rover Space Agency will provide the lander that will carry the Indian rover. China Chinese lunar sample return mission consisting of a 2 stage lander 2018 Chang'e 5 Sample return and an orbiter for collection of lunar samples. Russia comes back? China catches up? USA shifts attention?

30 X-ray observations as examples of space observations heasarc.gsfc..gov/docs/heasarc/headates/heahistory.html

31 Main missions

32 1960’s: start-up year Mission country breakthroughs 1962 MIT’s 3rd rocket USA 1st X-ray sources outside flight (2 failures) solar sys.: neutron star binaries (2002 Nobel prize) 1963 US Navy Lab's 1st USA X-rays from Crab Nebula rocket flight 1964 Two US Navy USA 1st black hole binary Cygnus Lab's rocket flight X-1 and X-ray from the center of the Milky Way 1965 Balloon flight of USA X-rays from Coma Cluster NASA/GSFC (evidence for dark matter) 1967 Vela (nuclear bomb USA Cosmic -ray bursts test monitor) 1967 US Navy Lab's USA X-rays from Quasar 3C 273 rocket flight

33 1970’s: exploration

1970 1st astronomy satellite USA Lots of X-ray sources of various (freedom) kinds 1973 SAS-2 USA Cosmic diffuse gamma-ray emission 1974 ANS Netherlands X-rays from normal stars 1974 Sounding rocket USA X-rays from white dwarfs 1975 ASTP USA-USSR Extreme-UV from white dwarfs 1975 Ariel-V survey USA X-ray outbursters (low mass black hole binaries) 1978 IUE USA UV from all kinds of objects 1979 USA X-rays from Jupiter 1979 Japan Japan’s 1st X-ray satellite: X-ray transient sources

34 1980’s: exploration

1983 Japan Japan’s 2nd X-ray satellite: iron emission lines from the Milky Way and compact objects 1984 EXOSAT Europe X-rays from Nova 1987 Japan Japan’s 3rd X-ray satellite: X-rays from SN1987A 1987 SMM USA gamma-rays from SN1987A 1989 USSR 1st imaging gamma-ray telescope: deep imaging of the Galactic Center

35 1990’s: blossom

1990 ROSAT Germany 1st high resolution and deep X-ray all sky survey 1990 CGRO USA 1st broad band gamma-ray observatory, one of the four corner stones of US space observatories: gamma-ray flashed from the earth 1993 ASCA Japan Japan’s 4th X-ray satellite: X-ray spectroscopy 1995 RXTE USA X-ray timing and variability 1996 BeppoSAX Italy Optical counterpart of cosmological gamma-ray burst 1999 Chandra USA Highest resolution X-ray telescope , one of the four corner stones of US space observatories, capable of observing all objects in the universe 1999 XMM Europe Most sensitive spectroscopy mission

36 New century

2000 HETE-2 USA 1st gamma-ray burst satellite: optical counterpart of short gamma-ray burst  merging of neutron stars 2002 Giacconi USA Pioneer of space astronomy, Nobel prize in physics: opened a new window of exploring the universe 2002 Integral Europ 1st imaging and spectroscopy gamma-ray observatory: new e types of hard X-ray objects and Galactic gamma-ray map 2004 Swift USA 1st rapid follow-up gamma-ray burst satellite: many new phenomena of gamma-ray burst and hard X-ray sky survey 2005 Japan Japan’s 6th X-ray satellite (the 5th failed): broadband 2007 Agile Italy New gamma-ray sources 2008 Fermi USA Highest resolution and sensitivity gamma-ray satellite: many new gamma-ray sources and very high energy radiation from gamma-ray bursts 2009 MAXI Japan ISS experiment: monitored and discovered many X-ray sources 2013 NuSTAR USA 1st focusing hard X-ray telescope: black hole spin

37 What have to learnt about the universe?

38 Copernicus: the Sun is the center

Polish

Jupiter

Saturn

Uranus

Neptune

Earth

Mars Venus Mercury 1473-1543 Planets

Dwarf Planets

39 The Sun is not the center

Kapteyn Shapley 1851-1922 1885-1972 (Dutch) (American)

40 The Milky Way is not the whole story! Many galaxies beyond the Milky Way

Hubble 1889～1953 (American)

41 The Universe is expanding!

Hubble 1889～1953 (American)

42 The Big Bang!

Cosmic Microwave Background 1985 Nobel Prize in Physics

Penzias & Wilson in 1965 (American)

43 Accelerating expansion of the Universe!

Schmidt Perlmutter Riess (Australian) (American) (American) Discovery made in 1998, 2011 Nobel Prize in Physics

44 45 Maybe other worlds and civilizations!

~1000 planets found around other stars, some habitable

46 47 We are still very ignorant!

 How and why universe originates, exactly?  What is dark matter made of and what is dark energy?  How are black holes formed and what are they doing?  How are the solar system and its planets formed?  How are other star-planet systems formed?  Other habitable planets?  Are there lives beyond the earth and even beyond the solar system? And how life and intelligence originate?  Are there extraterrestrial civilization? And can we communicate and even visit them?  Can and where we immigrate from the earth?  The list can go on forever!

48 What will further explorations discover?

 Politicians and decision makers often ask: Please tell us what new results, discoveries and breakthroughs will you get from this mission?  The best answer: I do not know! We expect to discover a lot of unexpected.

49 Scientific explorations are full of surprises!

 Cosmic rays (Nobel prize): hot ballooning to study attenuation of radioactivity with atmospheric height  Cosmic microwave background (Nobel prize): removing antenna noise  Pulsar (Nobel prize): studying interstellar radio scintillation  Cosmic X-ray sources (Nobel prize): studying stellar X-ray emission  Cosmic neutrinos (Nobel prize): studying decay of protons  (Nobel prize): studying neutron stars  Gamma-ray bursts (Shaw prize): nuclear test monitoring  Dark Energy (Nobel prize): measuring Hubble constant

50 Why are important discoveries from explorations unexpected?

 Scientists too stupid?  Nature and the Universe too complicated?  My answer: Scientists are smart enough to know the Nature and the Universe are too complicated to predict, thus they design instruments to discover the unknowns!

 The wonder and excitement in exploring the Universe!

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