Political Polling in Asia-Pacific
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POLITICAL POLLING IN ASIA-PACIFIC EDITED BY ALASTAIR CARTHEW AND SIMON WINKELMANN Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung Singapore Media Programme Asia Political Polling in Asia-Pacific Edited by Alastair Carthew and Simon Winkelmann Copyright © 2012 by the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, Singapore Publisher Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung 34 Bukit Pasoh Road Singapore 089848 Tel: +65 6603 6181 Fax: +65 6603 6180 Email: [email protected] www.kas.de/medien-asien/en/ All rights reserved Manuscript offers, review copies, exchange journals, and requests for subscription are to be sent to the publisher. The responsibility for facts, opinions and cross references to external sources in this publication rests exclusively with the author and his interpretation do not necessarily reflect the views of the policy of Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung. Layout and Design Hotfusion 7 Kallang Place #04-02 Singapore 339153 www.hotfusion.com.sg Foreword 7 By Paul Linnarz Chapter 1 Importance of political polls in political communication 9 By Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Donsbach Chapter 2 Opinion Polls and the Political Process 19 By Dr. Norman Abjorensen Chapter 3 How polls are shaping the political process 31 By Dr. Norman Abjorensen Chapter 4 Focus groups: Myth or reality 39 By Stephen Mills Chapter 5 Is Asia-Pacific ready for online political polling? 51 By Rainer Faus Chapter 6 Media and its relationship to polling institutions: Uneasy bedfellows? 65 By Alastair Carthew Chapter 7 Emerging technologies in the polling business 79 By David Black and Arina Dafir Chapter 8 Do public opinion processes change through social media? 91 By Philip Behnke Chapter 9 How the media and government agencies make use of polls: Insider’s observation and perspective 101 By Noppadon Kannika Chapter 10 Singapore maturing? Polls and politics in Singapore 121 By Kirpal Singh About the authors 127 Foreword The use of political polling varies greatly across countries of the Asia-Pacific. From sophisticated methodologies constantly tracking political opinion in Australia and New Zealand, through to virtually non-existent polling in Singapore and some innovative methods in Malaysia and Singapore. Whatever the pace of evolution of polling as a legitimate tool in the political armoury, it is clearly now an essential component in the political sphere. It is therefore worth researching and analysing political polling and presenting the information in book format to underscore political polling’s maturity within civil society in the Asia-Pacific. This book, therefore, casts a critical, expert eye over how political polling has evolved and become an integral part of the political process in most democratic countries, since George Gallup first used scientific methods to predict the election of President Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936. These methods demonstrated how a targeted, sophisticated sampling of a relatively small group of potential voters could beat a large scale, unscientific “straw poll,” which, up until then was the prevailing means of testing voter opinion. We have employed a new method in compiling the chapters, not previously used by Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung’s Asia Media Programme. In April, we brought together a group of pollsters from Australia, New Zealand, Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore and Germany, to brainstorm content for the book. We were not sure if this method of producing a book would work. Nonetheless, with an outline produced in one day, most of the attendees then volunteered to write a chapter, and, in some cases, contribute to other chapters, to bring a book together by the end of 2011. The result is a book that garners a wide variety of analysis and opinion, that we are confident will serve as a useful academic, journalistic and general guide to, as some people say, the ‘dark art’ of political polling. The first chapter is a learned outline of how political polling has evolved and its importance in the political process today. The author, Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Donsbach, professor of Communication at Technische Universität Dresden in Germany, is a previous president of the World Association for Public Opinion Research and the author of many books and research papers on communication. Prof. Dr. Donsbach sets a high standard. 7 Political Polling in Asia-Pacific Stephen Mills, arguably New Zealand’s pre-eminent political pollster and Dr. Norman Abjorensen, experienced journalist turned academic, respectively contribute soundly argued, cogent pieces on focus groups – long a subject of debate in the polling community - and how polls shape the political process. As a former political reporter of long standing in New Zealand, Alastair Carthew identifies some disturbing and ongoing tensions between pollsters and the media, who, in the last few decades have become dominant players in the political polling arena. No book on media today would be complete without a chapter on the impact of new technology - particularly social media – and political polling is no exception. Rainer Faus examines the question whether Asia-Pacific is ready for online polling and David Black and Arina Dafir look at the new technologies being employed in polling. While online polling has definitely arrived, in Asia it has not emerged as a powerhouse method as quickly as anticipated. This will change as the Internet and smart phones continue their rapid rollout to general constituencies and as more sophisticated database collection, for example, becomes possible through the new technologies. Asian-based pollsters and academics have also contributed. Noppadon Kannika, Thailand’s pre-eminent pollster of the ABAC POLL Research Center, Assumption University, delivers a unique overview on the accuracy of polls, particularly exit polls, using the 2011 Thailand election as a case study and, further, an analysis of how the media makes use of the polls. Kirpal Singh, Director of the Wee Kim Wee Centre, at Singapore Management University, asks if Singapore is maturing in its approach to polls and politics. All of these contributors bring their own special knowledge and experience to the task of creating a book that we believe will serve as a valuable reference and academic tool for many years to come. I strongly recommend the book to everyone interested in this continually evolving, influential and fascinating part of the political arena. Paul Linnarz Director Media Programme Asia Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. 8 Political Polling in Asia-Pacific CHAPTER 1 Importance of political polls in political communication by Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Donsbach Introduction Four things had to emerge and come together for modern public opinion research as we know it today: counting human beings, using humans’ answers to questions as a source of scientific evidence, the principle of sampling, and thinking in variables. What is common to us today has been a long, and often rough, process. There were religious obstacles against seeing ‘God’s creature’ as a carrier of variables, academic doubts against the laws of statistics, and, first of all, political barriers against the possibility of indicating the will of the people. It would be naive to think that all these threats to political opinion polls, belong to the past. They are still with us, although with different salience in different areas of the world. The search for patterns or ‘laws’ behind people’s thinking and behaviours, is still often seen as a blasphemy to the individuality of man and the idiosyncrasy of his acts. Many people still doubt that we can ask a thousand to infer the opinions of millions. And, most troublesome, in some areas of the world laws still exist, or are in the making, to prohibit free public opinion research. All this is happening more than 70 years after George Gallup’s famous victory over the large scale straw poll by the Literary Digest. The poll predicted the wrong president on the basis of 2.3 million postcards, while Gallup was on target with just 3000 respondents, selected by a scientific method. This was the breakthrough for the survey method, although surveys had been conducted before, in Europe as well as in the United States of America. But it needed such a symbolic proof. Soon after this event George Gallup published his book, co-authored with Saul Rae, The Pulse of Democracy1 and started his regular column, America Speaks, 1 Gallup, George & Saul F. Rae (1940). The Pulse of Democracy: The Public Opinion Poll and How it Works. New York: Simon and Schuster 9 Importance of political polls in political communication in hundreds of American newspapers. These were the claims that came with modern public opinion polling: that it can measure the true will of the people and through the polls, they get a real voice in between elections and on all kinds of issues. Today, we can say that two institutions have changed the political process more than anything else: the media, in particular television, and the polls. Television has popularised politics, personalised politics, created a new breed of politicians, and totally changed the rationale of political marketing. We even talk of the “mediatization of politics” and a new political system called “mediaocracy”. Public opinion polls, on the other hand, have made the most important element of democracy, i.e. public opinion, measurable – also they have changed political marketing, have become a major media content, and can, under certain circumstances, change the political behaviour of citizens and politicians. Four challenges of polls in democracy While today, a democracy is not conceivable without regularly published opinion polls in the news media, the debates about their existence as well as their performance have not ceased. The discussions circle around four main points: (1) the validity of opinion polls, (2) their accuracy, (3) their effects on the political system, and, most of all, (4) their effects on the electorate. Depending on their viewpoint of each of these dimensions, writers either see polls as a menace or a blessing for democracy.