Politics and Transition in the New South Sudan
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POLITICS AND TRANSITION IN THE NEW SOUTH SUDAN Africa Report N°172 – 4 April 2011 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................. i I. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 1 II. POST-REFERENDUM: A CHANGING POLITICAL LANDSCAPE ....................... 1 A. INTERNAL GRIEVANCES ............................................................................................................... 1 B. PRE-REFERENDUM RECONCILIATION EFFORTS IN 2010 ............................................................... 3 C. SUPPRESSED VOICES EMERGE ...................................................................................................... 4 III. TRANSITIONAL GOVERNMENT ................................................................................ 5 A. NEGOTIATING THE TRANSITION ................................................................................................... 5 B. LENGTH OF TRANSITION PERIOD .................................................................................................. 6 C. BROAD-BASED GOVERNMENT AND POLITICAL ACCOMMODATION ............................................... 7 1. Revised Executive Structure ........................................................................................................ 7 2. Revised Legislature? .................................................................................................................... 8 D. TRANSITIONAL CONSTITUTION .................................................................................................... 9 IV. THE SPLM ....................................................................................................................... 12 1. From military to party ................................................................................................................ 12 2. Internal dynamics ....................................................................................................................... 13 3. Internal accommodation ............................................................................................................. 13 4. Internal reforms .......................................................................................................................... 14 V. THE OPPOSITION PARTIES ...................................................................................... 16 VI. THE TRANSITIONAL AGENDA ................................................................................ 17 A. DECENTRALISING AUTHORITY ................................................................................................... 18 B. OIL REVENUE ALLOCATION ....................................................................................................... 20 C. THE LEGISLATIVE AGENDA ....................................................................................................... 25 D. ELECTORAL REFORM ................................................................................................................. 27 E. NEW CENSUS ............................................................................................................................. 28 VII. CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................... 30 APPENDICES A. MAP OF SOUTH SUDAN .................................................................................................................... 31 B. ALL SOUTHERN SUDANESE POLITICAL PARTIES CONFERENCE (EXCERPTS) ..................................... 32 C. GLOSSARY ...................................................................................................................................... 33 D. ABOUT THE INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP .................................................................................... 34 E. CRISIS GROUP REPORTS AND BRIEFINGS ON AFRICA SINCE 2008 ..................................................... 35 F. CRISIS GROUP BOARD OF TRUSTEES ................................................................................................ 37 Africa Report N°172 4 April 2011 POLITICS AND TRANSITION IN THE NEW SOUTH SUDAN EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS Now that South Sudan’s referendum is complete and its Jockeying has intensified between the SPLM and South- independence from the North all but formalised, focus must ern opposition parties over the composition and powers of increasingly shift to the political agenda at home. A new a transitional government and duration of the transitional transitional government will preside over a fixed term from period. The SPLM desires to move expeditiously toward 9 July 2011, during which a broadly consultative review a transitional constitution amid all that must be done before process should yield a permanent constitution. Critical de- independence, while the opposition fears it is manipulating cisions taken now and immediately after independence will the process to entrench its power. A domineering approach define the health and trajectory of democracy in what will from the SPLM has jeopardised the goodwill created by an soon be the world’s newest state. Two factors may shape important political parties’ conference in late 2010. Stifling the coming transition period more than any other; first, debate and poor political management of such processes the degree to which the South’s ruling Sudan People’s Lib- unnecessarily risk further antagonism among opposition eration Movement (SPLM) allows an opening of political parties, particularly at a time when the challenges in realis- space in which a vibrant multi-party system can grow; ing independence and managing domestic security concerns secondly, the will to undertake democratic reform within make Southern unity all the more important. The SPLM the SPLM, as intra-party politics continue to dominate the must recognise that meaningful opposition participation – political arena in the near term. Embracing pluralism now including in defining the transition and in a broad-based – both inside and outside the party – would lay a founda- government – is not a threat to its power but an investment tion for stability in the long term. Failing on either front in stability and legitimate rule. A politics of exclusion may would risk recreating the kind of overly centralised, authori- in the long run undermine the very power some party hard- tarian and ultimately unstable state South Sudan has finally liners are trying to consolidate. managed to escape. Managing South Sudan’s ethno-regional diversity will con- Post-referendum negotiations continue between the SPLM tinue to be a tall order. Political accommodation is a neces- and the National Congress Party (NCP) toward a peaceful sity regardless of what form the transitional government separation and a constructive North-South relationship. assumes. The SPLM leadership will have a difficult chess- While they consume considerable attention of the SPLM board to manage, finding roles for a wide range of party leadership, the political landscape in South Sudan has be- (including many members now returning home), army and gun to transform. From the signing of the Comprehensive opposition elements. It must avoid a “winner-takes-all” Peace Agreement (CPA) in 2005, South Sudan’s diver- mindset and view the appointment of a broadly represen- gent ethnic and political communities were united behind tative government not as appeasement alone but as recog- a common goal: self-determination. Many suppressed griev- nition of Southern Sudan’s pluralist character. ances, choosing not to rock the boat until that objective was achieved. Now that the vote has been cast and its re- The liberation struggle is over, the CPA era is coming to sults endorsed, the common denominator is gone, and long- a close, and it is thus time for the SPLM to mark a new simmering political disputes are beginning to re-surface. chapter in its evolution. A review of the party’s modus Likewise, a series of armed insurgencies, recent militia operandi is necessary if it is to maintain cohesion, con- activity, and army defections highlight internal fault lines solidate its legitimacy and deliver in government. Party and latent grievances within the security sector. Contin- reforms should aim to manage internal divisions, erode a ued fighting has challenged government capacity to man- top-down military culture, professionalise operations and age domestic conflict, risks further polarisation of ethnic trade coercion for enhanced internal dialogue. Meanwhile, communities and their political leaders and could stoke there is no denying that Southern opposition parties are broader insecurity. weak; their resources, membership and structures are thin. While the SPLM must engender a conducive environment, opposition parties are equally responsible for pursuing Politics and Transition in the New South Sudan Crisis Group Africa Report N°172, 4 April 2011 Page ii shared national interests, shouldering national responsi- RECOMMENDATIONS bilities and developing credible alternative platforms that target a national constituency. Continued national and To the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement international support for political party development is (SPLM): essential. 1. Afford opposition parties and civil society a mean- Once the transition period commences, reviews of several ingful role in defining the forthcoming transition, in- key policy areas and resultant strategies