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EMERGENCIES UNIT FOR UNITED NATIONS ETHIOPIA (UN-EUE) Good rains do not compensate for chronic food insecurity A glance at actual livelihood and humanitarian issues in selected belg areas of Wello and North Showa Assessment Mission 21- 30 April 2002 François Piguet & Hugo Raemi, Field Officers, UN-Emergencies Unit for Ethiopia 1 Introduction Belg is the short rainy season that normally starts in January and lasts until April. After a number of years of drought and crop failure, a second consecutive year of good belg rains can be reported in 2002. This is good news for the highlands and parts of the midlands in North and South Wello as well as North Shewa that depend to a certain extent on the belg rains for crop production. Unfortunately, due to bad experiences of previous years, farmers in the considered zones are more risk wary than in “normal” times and have increasingly shifted from belg to meher crops. Meher is the main agricultural growing season from June to September. This adapted strategy to minimise risk has resulted in a belg landscape in the highlands that shows a patchwork of fields planted with belg crops and plots that have been prepared for the meher season (picture below). Most of the zones that the UN-EUE mission inspected had received more or less good precipitation in terms of the amount of water and the distribution of the rain showers. Exceptions were reported in specific areas in Gidan, Kobo, Meket (north Wello) Ambasel and some of the woredas in the western part of North Wello such Belg landscape in Gidan woreda, North Wello , May 2002 (Photo by Francois Piguet UN-EUE) as Sayint, Wegde and Kelela. Those areas experienced delays, interruptions and/or shortages of rain as well as erratic rain distribution in the lowlands, conditions that have to be considered as fairly normal. A closer look revealed that difficulties reported in these woredas are more related to the deficits of previous seasons than to the inadequacies of recent rains. Post mission reports have also indicated that rains needed for crop maturation in the western 1 highlands had not yet arrived and could result in a rapidly changing situation in particular areas (see Box 1). So far there has been no crop assessment made for the current agricultural season. The Head of the Extension Department stated, that due to the ongoing decentralisation at the Department of Agriculture, only partial data on cultivated surface and harvest prospects have been transmitted to the zonal administration. It is estimated that 696,387 ha were planted in North Shewa, below the potential of 780,824 ha. Delays in seed shipments have caused problems locally, mainly in remote areas. Similar to Wello, land is being prepared for the forthcoming meher season, indicating a shifting strategy from belg to meher crops. Grazing land is not rotated with crops and farmers are mostly using the traditional gany system: Land is abandoned for five to seven years, followed by slash and burn preparation for two to three years of cropping. 2 Migration trend: No more than the usual Migration is a way for the farmers to cope with difficulties due to lack of rain, seeds, or the availability of productive land and other causes. A farmer who leaves his kebele usually registers his departure with the authorities. This way he preserves the right over his plot and nobody can claim it. This procedure also provides the administration with a way to track migration. In South Wello the administration was still waiting for information from the woredas and no migration data was available in April 2002. Generally no extraordinary movements had been recorded in the surveyed area. Rumours about unusual migration in North Wello (Gidan, Meket, Gubalafto) were not confirmed by the local administration or NGOs involved at woreda level. In Meket the administration stressed that migration is more significant during the meher season. Farmers forced to migrate leave for the lowlands in Kobo, Waja, Gondar and Metema, to work in agriculture or move to urban areas like Woldiya, Twister: Wind erosion on barren plains along Dessie and Addis Ababa for casual work or begging. Chinese Road in Meket woreda, North Wello, May In the towns in South and North Wello, the number of 2002 (Photo by Francois Piguet UN-EUE) beggars on the streets has visibly decreased since the same period last year. Overall, the assessment on migration indicates that the situation is stable and that the level of hardship has not increased and may have decreased in recent months. Even in the absence of drought, migration is a common phenomenon and is principally related to structural problems, such as family plot size, poor soil, inadequate yields, lack of off- farm opportunities, etc. 2 Box 1 Belg rains by zones North Wello According to DPPD, Department of Agriculture and SC-UK experts in Woldiya, the overall rainfall situation in the highlands can be described as fair. Rain started on time, as early as the end of December and up to mid-January. Rain distribution was better in highland woredas and decreased towards eastern lowland areas. This might result in problems for livestock grazing, particularly in areas bordering Afar Region. So far, good results for the future harvest are expected in the five dega agro-ecological zone (highland) woredas of Gidan, Bugna, Meket, Wadla and Delanta Dawunt. There, barley and wheat were at different stages of growth. In the weina dega and kolla (low and midlands), teff had been planted to a lesser extent. Thus far crops are in good condition and a fair harvest is expected, although additional rains are needed for crop maturation. It should be noted, however, that even a potentially good harvest, cannot feed the entire population. South Wello According to DPPD, Department of Agriculture and SCF in Dessie, belg rains in South Wello are notably better this year than during previous years. However, in some areas rain came too late and many farmers did not plant due to the high risk of rotting, as harvest time may coincide with kerimt rains. Despite the promising situation only two out of the 15 rural woredas are food secure even in the absence of drought or other calamities. Every year about 10% of 2.5 millions people in South Wello are in need of food assistance. North Shewa North Shewa covers 30 rural woredas, out of which 19 are partly belg-dependent. According to the Zonal Department of Agriculture in Debre Bihane, North Shewa has received adequate rain from the belg rains 2002. Compared with recent seasons, better crop and grazing conditions are expected. Pockets of deficit areas related to structural problems remain in the following weredas: Gishe Rabel, Gara Midima, Keya Gabriel, Mama Midima and Asargit, where Employment Generation Schemes (EGS) and/or Food For Work (FFW) programmes are ongoing. Belg landscape in South Wollo, May 2002 (Photo by Francois Piguet, UN-EUE) 3 3 Cheap grain is bad news: low prices lead to less production Since mid-2000, grain food prices have decreased significantly, reasons being regular supplies of food grain (esp. maize, millet and teff) from surplus producing areas of the region, as well as imports and relief food. Cheap cereal prices are good news for urban consumers and for poor farmers whose harvests are too small to feed them throughout the year and have to purchase additional subsistence. But it hurts larger producers. While product prices have declined, production costs have steadily gone up (see 7.1 Annex 1: Market Information Bulletin at Dessie Market in the Year 2001/2002, p. 16, and 7.2 Annex 2: Fertiliser prices (q /ETB), p. 16). Surplus producing areas today complain about a lack of market opportunities and farm gate prices that are below production cost! This may result in difficulties for Ethiopia’s agriculture as a whole and a decline in production. The head of the Ethiopian Grain Trading Enterprise (EGTE) in Dessie (South Wello) and the project manager for farmers’ credits in the Organisation for Relief and Development in Amhara (ORDA) in Woldiya (North Wello) confirm the trend. ORDA has a serious problem with unpaid farming credits that where taken by farmers to obtain the agricultural extension package promoted by the Ministry of Agriculture that includes improved seeds plus fertilizer. In Amhara Region this extension package is channelled through the extension service of the Department of Agriculture, ORDA and the Amhara Credit and Saving Association (ACSA), which provides the credit to cash poor farmers (see Box 2 ACSA). Particularly hard-hit are peasants in the highlands who bought farming inputs such as improved seeds and fertilizers on credit and cannot pay them back. As a consequence, the utilisation of fertilizer has decreased sharply and the failure of the agricultural extension package is a major drawback for the introduction of modern and innovative farming techniques. To compensate for the lack of mineral and organic fertilisers, farmers are again using traditional methods like burning piles of soil mixed with cow dung and dead weeds. Small yields and further soil degradation are the result. 3.1 The Poverty Trap and the difficulty to repay credits In the last four years the Department of Agriculture wanted to introduce improved seeds of teff and barley to farmers in Wello. The promise of higher yields and better profits was tempting, but some of the results were disastrous. Many farmers actually became poorer. There is currently no market for agricultural inputs in the area and the idea of the programme was to provide farmers an extension package of improved seeds plus fertilizer. The packages are channelled through the extension service of the Department of Agriculture, ORDA and the Amhara Credit and Saving Association (ACSA).

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