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Intruding on the Hermit : Glimpses of North Korea

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Intruding on the Hermit : Glimpses of North Korea EAST-WEST CENTER EAST-WEST CENTER SPECIAL REPORTS Number i July 1993 INTRUDING ON THE HERMIT: GLIMPSES OF NORTH KOREA BRADLEY K. MARTIN Based on three visits to North Korea by an American journalist between 1979 and 1992, this report highlights changes from the 1970s, when the North had much to boast about in its com• parative level of economic development, to the 1990s when communism's failures at home and abroad have placed the regime in desperate straits. East-West Center Special Reports are authored by scholars, journalists and other commentators and examine issues of importance to the Asia- Pacific region and the United States. EAST-WEST CENTER East-West Center East West Center Special Reports 1777 East-West Road present a thoughtful synthesis of The U.S. Congress established the Honolulu, Hawaii 96848 knowledge on issues of importance to East-West Center in 1960 to foster the Asia-Pacific region and the United Telephone: (808) 944-7197 mutual understanding and cooperation States. Special Reports are authored Facsimile: (808) 944-7376 among the governments and peoples by scholars, journalists and other of the Asia-Pacific region, including President commentators and are intended for the United States. Principal funding Michel Oksenberg those who make or influence policy for the Center comes from the U.S. decisions in the United States, Asia Vice President for Research and government, with additional support and the Pacific, including educators, Development provided by private agencies, individ• scholars, journalists, business people Bruce M. Koppel uals and corporations, and more than and individuals with a broad interest 20 Asian and Pacific governments. Director of Office of Public Programs in Asia or the Pacific. For additional The Center promotes responsible Webster Nolan copies or other information, please contact the series editor. development, long-term stability and Publications Manager human dignity for all people in the Elisa W Johnston The East-West Center solicits and region and helps prepare the United responds to the guidance of expert States for constructive involvement Series Editor, East-West Center Special Reports reviewers for manuscripts included in in Asia and the Pacific. this series. The interpretations and find• Anne Stewart ings expressed in this publication are, however, those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the East-West Center. EAST-WEST CENTER SPECIAL REPORTS EAST-WEST CENTER Number i 1777 East-West Road July 1993 Honolulu, Hawaii 9684B INTRUDING ON THE HERMIT: GLIMPSES OF NORTH KOREA BRADLEY K. MARTIN CONTENTS Summary 2 A Brief History 3 The South Revs Up 4 The North Stalls 4 1979: To the City of the God-King 5 The Land that Juche Built 6 Masters of the Nation 9 1989: Stuck But Still Hoping 11 Economic Problems 12 Changing to Stay the Same 13 Pans Abroad 15 1992 and Beyond 16 An Economic Crisis 16 Join the World 17 Economic Apartheid 18 Fraternal Dealings 19 Nuclear Card 22 Revisionism in Pyongyang 25 Outside Influences 27 Looking Ahead 27 Endnotes 30 References 31 2 EAST-WEST CENTER Bradley K. Martin began work on this SUMMARY report while journalist- In the post-Korean War period, South Korea turned in a dismal economic per• in-residence at the East-West Center's formance while the North Koreans used the Stalinist model to lay an impres• Program on Commu• nications and Journal• sive base for economic development. Becoming all-powerful at home as he ism during 1991-92. eliminated his rivals, North Korea's "Great Leader" Kim Il-sung in 1958 even He has covered Asia for more than IS boasted that his country would catch up with Japan. In the 1960s, though, years, including serv• Pyongyang started to bump up against the limits of what could be achieved ing as Tokyo bureau chief for Newsweek, with a command economy. South Korean military rulers, meanwhile, finally The Asian Wall Street found the formula for export-led growth that would create the "Korean mira• Journal and The Balti• more Sun and as the cle." By 1972, when Northern delegates went to Seoul for talks on easing ten• Sun's Beijing and New sions, they could see that the South had positioned itself to overtake the Delhi bureau chief Martin began his in• North economically. Pyongyang then embarked on a two-decades-long series volvement with Asia of attempts to bring in from the West, Japan and even South Korea the money as a student of Chinese history at and technology needed to modernize production. Princeton and as a Peace Corps volunteer As the author found on his visits to the country in 1979, 1989 and 1992, teacher in Thailand. however, those efforts to modernize with outside help were doomed by the re• He is currently a Ful- bright research fellow gime's determination to keep out accompanying ideas and values that would based in Seoul and is threaten the rule of the deified Kim Il-sung and his son Kim Jong-il. Despite writing a book about divided Korea. reported shortages of food and consumer goods, the Kims relied on their to• talitarian control over the people to pull the country through without fun• damental change. "Our country has no glasnost or perestroika" one North Korean boasted in 1989. "Our policy is unchanged for 40 years. No one wants to change." Now with the collapse of Soviet and Eastern European com• munism and of the communist world's barter-trade bloc, North Korea's econ• omy is shrinking and its people are reportedly growing restive. With the re• gime under such pressure at home, there is a danger that Pyongyang may be tempted to some drastic external action—of which its March 1993 announce• ment that it was withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty may have been a precursor. 3 EAST-WEST CENTER West Center. Those three visits took me eventually to almost every region of the country. This paper analyzes the North's approach to change from the 1970s, when it had much to boast of in its comparative level of economic develop• ment, to the 1990s, when communism's failures at home and abroad have placed the regime in desperate straits. A BRIEF HISTORY The communist and pro-Western re• gimes have struggled grimly for hege• mony on the Korean peninsula for more than 40 years through war and an uneasy peace. Encouraged by Stalin, North Korea's Kim Il-sung sent his forces south across the 38th parallel dividing line to launch the Korean War in June 1950. After American-led forces under the United Nations flag inter• vened and chased the North Korean People's Army to the Chinese border, China sent its soldiers, who pushed the UN forces back. The seesawing bat• tles ended with the two sides arrayed against each other in the vicinity of the former border. An armistice took effect A half-century of ferocious competition with subsequent peaceful Korean unifi• in 1953, with U.S. forces remaining in between South Korea and North Korea cation, to economic, social and political South Korea to deter further hostilities. for survival and dominance has come breakdown on one or both sides of the In the post-Korean War period, the down to what in chess would be called Demilitarized Zone. There could even Syngman Rhee regime in Seoul faltered the "endgame," an analogy I borrow be another Korean war, this time com• politically and turned in a dismal eco• from Donald Gregg, former U.S. Am• plicated by North Korea's suspected nomic performance while the North bassador to South Korea. The South program to develop nuclear weapons. Koreans used the Stalinist model to lay can foresee victory but to checkmate I have been a first-hand observer of an impressive base for economic de• Pyongyang's ambitions must complete much of this struggle since 1977, when velopment. A recent study shows North a series of final moves without serious I began covering South Korea. Permis• and South neck and neck at the time of mistake or surprise. Just ahead is a sion to enter North Korea has been the 1953 armistice, with gross national time that has the potential for being given only rarely to American journal• product (GNP) per capita of $56 and the most dangerous or rewarding phase ists, but I am fortunate to have visited $55 respectively; by 1960 the South at of a rivalry that has raged since Japa• the "hermit kingdom" on three occa• $60 had barely advanced, while the nese rule ended in 1945. The possible sions: in 1979 as Tokyo bureau chief of North's per capita GNP had nearly outcomes range from a maturation of 1 The Baltimore Sun, in 1989 as News- quadrupled to S208. Even in 1965 the South Korean politics and a successful week's Tokyo bureau chief and in 1992 North's $292 was more than three times North Korean opening to the world, as journalist-in-residence at the East- the South's $88, according to this 4 EAST-WEST CENTER set of estimates.* Meanwhile, a Western According to Byoung-Lo Philo Kim, * Citing a U.S. Central Intelligence Agency report academic's 1965 article entitled "Korean "Central planning was highly effective among others, Byoung-Lo Philo Kim (1992:66) ob• Miracle" referred not to the South Ko• and capable of developing the North serves: "Although a GNP comparison is hard to draw because of the lack of reliable data and rean but to the North Korean economy.2 Korean economy at the beginning differences in measurement, several estimates agree stage—the first seven or fifteen years— Pyongyang's propaganda organs on the suggestion that the North had a higher per capitalized on this economic progress relying on mobilization measures.
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