Compromising Connectivity Information Dynamics Between the State and Society in a Digitizing North Korea
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Preparing for the Possibility of a North Korean Collapse
CHILDREN AND FAMILIES The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that EDUCATION AND THE ARTS helps improve policy and decisionmaking through ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT research and analysis. HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE This electronic document was made available from INFRASTRUCTURE AND www.rand.org as a public service of the RAND TRANSPORTATION Corporation. INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LAW AND BUSINESS NATIONAL SECURITY Skip all front matter: Jump to Page 16 POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Support RAND Purchase this document TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY Browse Reports & Bookstore Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore the RAND National Security Research Division View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This report is part of the RAND Corporation research report series. RAND reports present research findings and objective analysis that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for re- search quality and objectivity. Preparing for the Possibility of a North Korean Collapse Bruce W. Bennett C O R P O R A T I O N NATIONAL SECURITY RESEARCH DIVISION Preparing for the Possibility of a North Korean Collapse Bruce W. -
DPRK Nuclear Weapons Capability 2021
DPRK nuclear weapons capability 【Overview】 The nuclear and missile capabilities of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea) continue to become enhanced but there are varying estimates regarding their strengths. For example, RAND Corporation, a U.S. think tank, and the South Korean Asan Institute for Policy Studies predicted that in an April 2021 report that in 2020 North Korea had between 67 and 116 warheads, and that this amount would increase to reach between 151 and 242 in 2027 (Bennett, Bruce W. et.al 2021). Elsewhere, Dr. Siegfried Hecker of Stanford University said in an April 30, 2021 interview with the 38 North site, which analyzes North Korea, that “20 to 60 is possible, with the most likely number being 45,” (38 North 2021). Few nations have made any official pronouncements, but the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) estimates the maximum size of the North Korean arsenal currently to be 60 warheads (Nikitin, Mary Beth D. & Ryder, Samuel D. 2021). In addition, in October 2018 the South Korean Minister of Unification, Cho Myoung-gyon, said that the Ministry’s Intelligence and Analysis Office believed North Korea had between 20 and 60 warheads (Kim, Hyng-jin 2018). Our estimate here of the North Korean stockpile, as of June 2021, is 40 warheads. North Korea, with its research facility in Nyeongbyeon as the hub, continues to produce plutonium and highly enriched uranium (HEU), and fissile materials for nuclear weapons (Nikitin, Mary Beth D. & Ryder, Samuel D. 2021、International Atomic Energy Agency 2021、United Nations Security Council 2021). The International Panel on Fissile Materials (IPFM) estimated in 2020 that the current amount of weapons-grade plutonium owned by North Korea was 40kg (International Panel on Fissile Materials 2021). -
North Korean Refugees in China
NORTH KOREAN REFUGEES IN CHINA Findings • The Chinese government continued to detain North Korean refugees in China and repatriate them to the Democratic Peo- ple’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). North Korean refugees face se- vere punishments upon repatriation to the DPRK, including torture, imprisonment, forced labor, and even execution. The repatriation of North Korean refugees violates China’s obliga- tions under international human rights and refugee law. The UN Commission of Inquiry on Human Rights in the Demo- cratic People’s Republic of Korea has stated that such repatri- ation may amount to ‘‘aiding and abetting crimes against hu- manity.’’ • Chinese and North Korean authorities continue to impose strict border controls. These controls are meant to deter North Korean refugees from escaping the DPRK, and the South Ko- rean government reported that about 1,047 North Korean refu- gees escaped to South Korea in 2019, compared to the 2009 peak of 2,914 refugees. The majority of North Korean refugees escape to South Korea via China and Southeast Asian coun- tries. • Chinese authorities’ crackdown on and expulsions of South Korean missionaries have undermined refugee rescue work carried out by the missionaries. South Korean missionaries and organizations play a crucial role in assisting and facili- tating the movement of North Korean refugees in China. Addi- tionally, further restrictions placed by Chinese and DPRK au- thorities during the novel coronavirus outbreak indirectly ham- pered missionary efforts to facilitate the movement of refugees in China. • The majority of North Korean refugees leaving the DPRK are women, who are often vulnerable to human trafficking. -
Family, Mobile Phones, and Money: Contemporary Practices of Unification on the Korean Peninsula Sandra Fahy 82 | Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
81 Family, Mobile Phones, and Money: Contemporary Practices of Unification on the Korean Peninsula Sandra Fahy 82 | Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies Moving from the powerful and abstract construct of ethnic homogeneity as bearing the promise for unification, this chapter instead considers family unity, facilitated by the quotidian and ubiquitous tools of mobile phones and money, as a force with a demonstrated record showing contemporary practices of unification on the peninsula. From the “small unification” (jageun tongil) where North Korean defectors pay brokers to bring family out, to the transmission of voice through the technology of mobile phones illegally smuggled from China, this paper explores practices of unification presently manifesting on the Korean Peninsula. National identity on both sides of the peninsula is usually linked with ethnic homogeneity, the ultimate idea of Koreanness present in both Koreas and throughout Korean history. Ethnic homogeneity is linked with nationalism, and while it is evoked as the rationale for unification it has not had that result, and did not prevent the ideological nationalism that divided the ethnos in the Korean War.1 The construction of ethnic homogeneity evokes the idea that all Koreans are one brethren (dongpo)—an image of one large, genetically related extended family. However, fissures in this ideal highlight the strength of genetic family ties.2 Moving from the powerful and abstract construct of ethnic homogeneity as bearing the promise for unification, this chapter instead considers family unity, facilitated by the quotidian and ubiquitous tools of mobile phones and money, as a force with a demonstrated record showing “acts of unification” on the peninsula. -
North Korean Cyber Capabilities: in Brief
North Korean Cyber Capabilities: In Brief Emma Chanlett-Avery Specialist in Asian Affairs Liana W. Rosen Specialist in International Crime and Narcotics John W. Rollins Specialist in Terrorism and National Security Catherine A. Theohary Specialist in National Security Policy, Cyber and Information Operations August 3, 2017 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov R44912 North Korean Cyber Capabilities: In Brief Overview As North Korea has accelerated its missile and nuclear programs in spite of international sanctions, Congress and the Trump Administration have elevated North Korea to a top U.S. foreign policy priority. Legislation such as the North Korea Sanctions and Policy Enhancement Act of 2016 (P.L. 114-122) and international sanctions imposed by the United Nations Security Council have focused on North Korea’s WMD and ballistic missile programs and human rights abuses. According to some experts, another threat is emerging from North Korea: an ambitious and well-resourced cyber program. North Korea’s cyberattacks have the potential not only to disrupt international commerce, but to direct resources to its clandestine weapons and delivery system programs, potentially enhancing its ability to evade international sanctions. As Congress addresses the multitude of threats emanating from North Korea, it may need to consider responses to the cyber aspect of North Korea’s repertoire. This would likely involve multiple committees, some of which operate in a classified setting. This report will provide a brief summary of what unclassified open-source reporting has revealed about the secretive program, introduce four case studies in which North Korean operators are suspected of having perpetrated malicious operations, and provide an overview of the international finance messaging service that these hackers may be exploiting. -
Special Report No
SPECIAL REPORT NO. 490 | FEBRUARY 2021 UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE w w w .usip.org North Korea in Africa: Historical Solidarity, China’s Role, and Sanctions Evasion By Benjamin R. Young Contents Introduction ...................................3 Historical Solidarity ......................4 The Role of China in North Korea’s Africa Policy .........7 Mutually Beneficial Relations and Shared Anti-Imperialism..... 10 Policy Recommendations .......... 13 The Unknown Soldier statue, constructed by North Korea, at the Heroes’ Acre memorial near Windhoek, Namibia. (Photo by Oliver Gerhard/Shutterstock) Summary • North Korea’s Africa policy is based African arms trade, construction of owing to African governments’ lax on historical linkages and mutually munitions factories, and illicit traf- sanctions enforcement and the beneficial relationships with African ficking of rhino horns and ivory. Kim family regime’s need for hard countries. Historical solidarity re- • China has been complicit in North currency. volving around anticolonialism and Korea’s illicit activities in Africa, es- • To curtail North Korea’s illicit activ- national self-reliance is an under- pecially in the construction and de- ity in Africa, Western governments emphasized facet of North Korea– velopment of Uganda’s largest arms should take into account the histor- Africa partnerships. manufacturer and in allowing the il- ical solidarity between North Korea • As a result, many African countries legal trade of ivory and rhino horns and Africa, work closely with the Af- continue to have close ties with to pass through Chinese networks. rican Union, seek cooperation with Pyongyang despite United Nations • For its part, North Korea looks to China, and undercut North Korean sanctions on North Korea. -
North Korea: a Chronology of Events from 2016 to 2020
North Korea: A Chronology of Events from 2016 to 2020 May 5, 2020 Congressional Research Service https://crsreports.congress.gov R46349 North Korea: A Chronology of Events from 2016 to 2020 Contents Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 1 Chronology ...................................................................................................................................... 3 1994 ........................................................................................................................................... 3 1998 ........................................................................................................................................... 3 2003 ........................................................................................................................................... 4 2005 ........................................................................................................................................... 4 2006 ........................................................................................................................................... 4 2007 ........................................................................................................................................... 5 2009 ........................................................................................................................................... 5 2011 .......................................................................................................................................... -
North Korean Identity As a Challenge to East Asia's Regional Order
Korean Soc Sci J (2017) 44:51–71 North Korean Identity as a Challenge to East Asia’s Regional Order Leif-Eric Easley Received: 9 May 2017 / Accepted: 31 May 2017 / Published online: 9 June 2017 Ⓒ Korean Social Science Research Council 2017 Introduction North Korea presents serious complications for East Asia’s regional order, and yet its identity is subject to frequent oversimplification. The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK or North Korea) is often in the headlines for its nuclear weapons and missile programs and for its violations of human rights.1 Media reports typically depict North Korea as an otherworldly hermit kingdom ruled by a highly caricatured Kim regime. This article seeks to deepen the conversation about North Korea’s political characteristics and East Asia’s regional architecture by addressing three related questions. First, how has North Korea challenged the regional order, at times driving some actors apart and others together? How are these trends explained by and reflected in North Korean national identity, as articulated by the Kim regime and as perceived in the region? Finally, what academic and policy-relevant implications are offered by the interaction of North Korean identity and regional order? To start, measuring national identity is a difficult proposition (Abdelal, et al., 2009). Applying the concepts of national identity and nationalism to North Korea are complicated by analytical problems in separating the nation, and especially the state, from the Kim regime. This study chooses to focus on “identity” rather than “nationalism” because “North Korean nationalism” implies a certain ideology that contrasts to the nationalisms of the Republic of Korea (ROK or South Korea), Japan or China. -
Adam Cathcart, Christopher Green, and Steven Denney
Articles How Authoritarian Regimes Maintain Domain Consensus: North Korea’s Information Strategies in the Kim Jong-un Era Adam Cathcart, Christopher Green, and Steven Denney Te Review of Korean Studies Volume 17 Number 2 (December 2014): 145-178 ©2014 by the Academy of Korean Studies. All rights reserved. 146 Te Review of Korean Studies Pyongyang’s Strategic Shift North Korea is a society under constant surveillance by the apparatuses of state, and is a place where coercion—often brutal—is not uncommon.1 However, this is not the whole story. It is inaccurate to say that the ruling hereditary dictatorship of the Kim family exerts absolute control purely by virtue of its monopoly over the use of physical force. The limitations of state coercion have grown increasingly evident over the last two decades. State-society relations in North Korea shifted drastically when Kim Jong-il came to power in the 1990s. It was a time of famine, legacy politics, state retrenchment, and the rise of public markets; the state’s coercive abilities alternated between dissolution and coalescence as the state sought to co-opt and control the marketization process, a pattern which continued until Kim Jong-il’s death in 2011 (Kwon and Chung 2012; Hwang 1998; Hyeon 2007; Park 2012). Those relations have moved still further under Kim Jong- un.2 Tough Kim’s rise to the position of Supreme Leader in December 2011 did not precipitate—as some had hoped—a paradigmatic shift in economic or political approach, the state has been extremely active in the early years of his era, responding to newfound domestic appreciation of North Korea’s situation in both the region and wider world. -
Thank You, Father Kim Il Sung” Is the First Phrase North Korean Parents Are Instructed to Teach to Their Children
“THANK YOU FATHER KIM ILLL SUNG”:”:”: Eyewitness Accounts of Severe Violations of Freedom of Thought, Conscience, and Religion in North Korea PPPREPARED BYYY: DAVID HAWK Cover Photo by CNN NOVEMBER 2005 UNITED STATES COMMISSION ON INTERNATIONAL RELIGIOUS FREEDOM Michael Cromartie Chair Felice D. Gaer Vice Chair Nina Shea Vice Chair Preeta D. Bansal Archbishop Charles J. Chaput Khaled Abou El Fadl Dr. Richard D. Land Dr. Elizabeth H. Prodromou Bishop Ricardo Ramirez Ambassador John V. Hanford, III, ex officio Joseph R. Crapa Executive Diretor NORTH KOREA STUDY TEAM David Hawk Author and Lead Researcher Jae Chun Won Research Manager Byoung Lo (Philo) Kim Research Advisor United States Commission on International Religious Freedom Staff Tad Stahnke, Deputy Director for Policy David Dettoni, Deputy Director for Outreach Anne Johnson, Director of Communications Christy Klaasen, Director of Government Affairs Carmelita Hines, Director of Administration Patricia Carley, Associate Director for Policy Mark Hetfield, Director, International Refugee Issues Eileen Sullivan, Deputy Director for Communications Dwight Bashir, Senior Policy Analyst Robert C. Blitt, Legal Policy Analyst Catherine Cosman, Senior Policy Analyst Deborah DuCre, Receptionist Scott Flipse, Senior Policy Analyst Mindy Larmore, Policy Analyst Jacquelin Mitchell, Executive Assistant Tina Ramirez, Research Assistant Allison Salyer, Government Affairs Assistant Stephen R. Snow, Senior Policy Analyst Acknowledgements The U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom expresses its deep gratitude to the former North Koreans now residing in South Korea who took the time to relay to the Commission their perspectives on the situation in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and their experiences in North Korea prior to fleeing to China. -
Unpacking a US Decision to Engage North Korea: What It Entails and What It Could Achieve
Unpacking a US Decision to Engage North Korea: What it Entails and What it Could Achieve Carla Freeman Mel Gurtov April 2018 38 NORTH SPECIAL REPORT About the Authors Carla P. Freeman is Director of the Foreign Policy Institute and Associate Research Professor in China Studies at the School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University. She is also Editor-in-Chief of Asian Perspective. Her publications include the edited volume, China and North Korea: Strategic and Policy Perspectives from a Changing China (Palgrave Macmillan, 2015). Mel Gurtov is Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Portland State University and Senior Editor of Asian Perspective. His latest book is Engaging Adversaries: Peacemaking and Diplomacy in the Human Interest (Rowman & Littlefield, 2018). Unpacking a US Decision to Engage North Korea: What it Entails and What it Could Achieve Carla Freeman and Mel Gurtov April 2018 A Third Way? In a report published last January in 38 North, “Unpacking a US Decision to Use Force Against North Korea: Issues, Options, and Consequences,” Robert Jervis assesses the efficacy of using force against North Korea. Jervis cautions against assuming that superior US military and economic capabilities guarantee success in denuclearizing the North. He also underscores the uncertainties attendant to even the limited use of force: actors beyond the United States-North Korea binary will influence outcomes, and how North Korea itself will respond is unpredictable. It would be a mistake, Jervis observes, to “attribute the failure only to a lack of American willingness to be tougher.” Although Jervis’ analysis draws on lessons probably familiar to any US military commander, the White House—notwithstanding the possibility of a Trump-Kim summit meeting in the near future—has surely not abandoned the idea of using the “military option” to force North Korea to cease work on its nuclear arsenal. -
Vp01 16¢63뼉 Olor
Discontinuance of Publication To our readers, First and foremost, I, as the president of Yonhap News Agency, would like to give our readers many thanks for the deep interest shown in our Vantage Point magazine for many years. With your great interest and encouragement, Yonhap has done its utmost to make Vantage Point, South Korea's sole North Korea-only monthly in English, a quality magazine over the years. However, Yonhap has very regrettably decided to discontinue the publication of the maga- zine, making the January issue in 2016 its last. This discontinuance, however, will never mean weakening Yonhap’s North Korea news ser- vice. On the contrary, Yonhap, as a leading news agency in South Korea, has the grave obligation to play a part in helping materialize the Korean people’s ardent wish for the reunification of the Korean Peninsula by providing our readers at home and abroad with accurate news on the reality of the communist North and the South Korean government’s North Korea policy. Hence, Yonhap promises to continuously meet our Vantage Point readers’ keen interest in and high demand for stories on Korean Peninsula issues by providing you with a quicker, fairer, more accurate and stronger North Korean news service via its Web page (www.yonhapnews.co.kr). I would like to express my deep appreciation to our faithful readers once again, and hope you will continuously maintain interest in Korean issues down the road. Best regards, Park No-hwang President-publisher Yonhap News Agency 폐간사 독자여러분들에게, 우선 그동안 연합뉴스 Vantage Point를 애독해주신 독자 여러분들에게 깊은 감사의 말씀을 드립니다 그동안 연합뉴스는 독자 여러분들의 높은 관심과 격려 속에서 한국의 유일한 북한 전문 영문월간지인 Vantage Point를 품격있는 잡지로 만들기 위해 최선 을 다해왔습니다.