CLIMATE CHANGE, DEVELOPMENT AND ENERGY PROBLEMS IN SOUTH AFRICA: ANOTHER WORLD IS POSSIBLE. Earthlife Africa Jhb Earthlife Africa Jhb 20 CONTENTS Abbreviations 1 Foreword 2 Executive summary 4 Introduction 8 The long road to realising change 10 South Africa’s dilemma 14 Climate change in South Africa 17 The face of climate change 24 Is government response to climate change adequate? 29 The obstacles 34 Another world is possible 37 Conclusion 45 Afterword 47 Bibliography 48 ABBREVIATIONS Asgisa Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative for South Africa BCLMP Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem Programme CDM Clean Development Mechanism CDP Carbon Disclosure Project CO2 Carbon Dioxide CTL Coal to Liquid DEAT Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism GDP Gross Domestic Product GEAR Growth, Employment and Redistribution Strategy GHG Greenhouse gases GWC Growth Without Constraints GWh Gigawatt hour HLG High Level Group IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change JSE Johannesburg Securities Exchange KWh Kilowatt hour LTMS Long Term Mitigation Scenarios NCCS National Climate Change Strategy NEMA National Environmental Management Act NGO Non-governmental Organisation OCGT Open-Cycle Gas Turbines RBS Required By Science RDP Reconstruction and Development Programme TAC Treatment Action Campaign UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 1 FOREWORD The scientific verdict is in; our planet is heating up and human activity is the cause. We already see indications of a dire future, with the Arctic ice sheet melting at rates faster than scientists predicted, and methane already bubbling up from the ocean floor. In South Africa, we already see changes in species distribution patterns, and indications of changes to wind and rainfall patterns. Respected scientists such as Dr. James Hansen1 warn that the point of no return is almost upon us — the point at which Earth experiences runaway climate change — and we will be powerless to prevent it. What happens then? This report is sobering reading. It outlines the Vaal Triangle and Durban South, to diminishing impacts that can be expected of climate change livelihoods in Craigieburn and Bodibe. to both natural environments and human populations. While we still don’t know what the As South Africa’s climate changes because of localised impacts will be, for example exactly rising global emissions of greenhouse gases, the what rainfall changes to expect in Colesberg or worst effects will be in such already degraded Tzaneen, we do have a good sense of the broader local environments. It is South Africa’s poor, general trends. This report charts those trends: the majority of the population, who will be the South Africa will become hotter and drier over the hardest hit. On the contrary, South Africa’s white interior, agricultural productivity and production population, and the rising black elite and middle patterns will change, and we will see species loss in class in the years since democracy, have largely many areas, including large protected areas such as been able to live in pleasant environments and the Kruger National Park. The impacts to health are escape from industrial pollution and they are less frightening. Not only will we face a future with less vulnerable to climatic shocks. available water (with consequences for hygiene and health) but many disease-causing organisms, such With 30% of households currently without access as malaria-carrying mosquitoes and water-borne to electricity, any response to climate change pathogens, are likely to expand their territories will have to take into account the effect of rising and further impact on human well-being. energy costs on poor households. Some immediate adaptation steps would be to significantly increase We know that climate change will impact Free Basic Electricity, start constructing low- negatively on already stressed natural systems. income housing in an energy efficient manner, Over the last century, South Africa’s environment promote urban gardening, and institute a Basic has been systemically degraded, with specific Income Grant. and severe impacts in Apartheid’s homeland and township areas. Forced resettlements resulted in The Department of Environmental Affairs and localised overpopulation, with too many people Tourism (DEAT) has the responsibility for not only— relying on too few resources, and urban townships somehow—reducing South Africa’s greenhouse in Johannesburg were placed downwind of toxic gas emissions, but also continuing to play a major mine dumps. These areas remain immersed in deep leadership role in persuading the rest of the world poverty and inequality to this day. to cut emissions, and protecting South Africans from current environmental destruction. It is The poor of South Africa have endured a century impossible not to empathise with DEAT’s officials. of environmental pollution, from industrial This is a massive task with a very tight deadline; poisoning of the air and groundwater in the the current thinking is that global emissions must 2 peak (reach their highest point) no later than 2015. windmills and solar panels? No. Because they won’t. Six years to go and it seems the world is still A year and a half ago, an official from DEAT stood fiddling with insignificant actions. If it weren’t so up before a group of environmentalists and NGO tragic, it would be a farce. representatives and said, “Where is the environmental movement? Where are the placards? We can’t change As this report points out, government’s task is all things without the pressure of citizens.” the more challenging because of the structure of South Africa’s economy. South Africa’s emissions The official’s comments were spot on; South are not the result of people flying too much or African environmental organisations have not boiling too many cups of tea. Rather, it is mainly successfully stimulated popular resistance to because of our energy production processes, with ecological destruction, which is a necessary two companies accounting for the bulk of our condition for change. emissions: Sasol and Eskom. Both produce mind-boggling volumes of greenhouse gases, The South African government and the Eskom from its coal-fired power stations and international community will reduce emissions; Sasol from its coal and natural gas to liquid fuels business will halt its unscrupulous practices; plans processes. This report contends that neither will be put into place to protect marginalised company has meaningful plans to change their communities from impacts on their ability to output, but change they must; both companies live in health and well-being - but only if we, the are punting vague and hyper-theoretical carbon citizens of this world, demand it. Together, in our capture and storage plans. This report exposes hundreds, thousands and millions, we have the the true nature of the plans for carbon capture power to force change, to force the transition to a and storage, the grand super technological fix for low-carbon economy. climate change, as a mere pipe dream. Carbon capture and storage is, at best, merely a theoretical The time to agitate, educate and organise is now. potential solution, with decades of experimenting At the UN Climate conference in Copenhagen at required before it can become a reality. the end of 2009, the governments of the world will get together to decide our collective fate; they have The reality is that we don’t have decades. We have this one chance. Perhaps we should remind them six years. just exactly whom they are working for. Should we as citizens submissively wait for the Tristen Taylor captains of industry to altruistically – and drastically Energy Policy Officer, - change their business models, for Sasol to start Earthlife Africa, Johannesburg building electric cars and for Eskom to invest in February 2009 1 Hansen, J. Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2008/TwentyYearsLater_20080623.pdf 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In climate terms, South Africa is already living on the edge. Much of it is arid or semi-arid and the whole country is subject to droughts and floods. Even small variations in rainfall or temperatures would exacerbate this already stressed environment. Most South African crops are grown in areas that are only just climatically suitable and with limited water supplies. But that climate is set to change for the worse dengue fever and water-borne diseases such as because of rising global emissions of greenhouse choleraand dysentery. Such things mean that gases (GHGs). Indeed, there are already ominous people living with HIV and AIDS in particular signs of change – that dry seasons are becoming would experience increased risks. longer and wet seasons starting later. Rainfall is reported to be becoming even more variable, with South Africa has been playing an influential role rain coming in more concentrated, violent bursts. as a developing country in the international negotiations even though it is not yet obliged When the Government of South Africa used to make commitments to reduce emissions. But internationally agreed scientific computer models South Africa is also part of the problem - the to explore the potential impacts of climate change largest emitter of green house gases on the African on South Africa over the next 50 years, it predicted: continent and home to the world’s biggest single emitter of CO2. • A continental warming of between 1 and 3 deg C. • Broad reductions of approximately 5 – 10 % of Although it is not (yet) under any legal obligation, current rainfall, but with higher rainfall in the South Africa has a moral obligation to reduce east and drier conditions in the west of South its emissions, which would also send a powerful Africa. political message to the world and increase the • Increased summer rainfall in the northeast and strength of its negotiating position in global the southwest, but a reduction of the duration of climate change talks and its leverage in demanding the summer rains in the northeast, and an overall emissions cuts from rich countries.