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FACTORS AND IMPACTS IN THE INFORMATION SOCIETY A PROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS IN THE CANDIDATE COUNTRIES REPORT ON TURKEY Serdar Sayan (Bilkent University) Sirin Elci and Hanzade Avci (Ankara Cyberpark) The authors of this report are solely responsible for the content, style, language and editorial control. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of the European Commission. April 2004 Technical Report EUR 21383 EN European Commission Joint Research Centre (DG JRC) Institute for Prospective Technological Studies http://www.jrc.es Legal notice Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use which might be made of the following information. Technical Report EUR 21383 EN © European Communities, 2004 Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. Printed in Spain 2 FACTORS AND IMPACTS IN THE INFORMATION SOCIETY A PROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS IN THE CANDIDATE COUNTRIES Preface PREFACE The Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) of the Directorate General Joint Research Centre of the European Commission contracted the International Centre for Economic Growth, European Centre (ICEG EC) to act as the coordinator of a consortium of 11 research institutes to carry out this project. The main objective of the project was to provide a series of national monographs studying the development of the Information Society (IS), including positive and negative impacts, in each of the candidate countries. These monographs offer an assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of each country regarding the development of IS (strongly rooted in factual quantitative data), and a view on their possible outcomes. They provide a clear, contextualised, multi-factoral and multi-causal picture of the input factors that contribute to the success or failure of IS developments, and the relevant output parameters that support mid- and long-term impacts on economic growth, employment and other relevant aspects of the future of each country. Each monograph concludes with a set of alternative scenarios for the development of IS in that country. This report was carried out by Bilkent University and Ankara Cyberpark, and aims to study the factors and impacts of the Information Society in Turkey. The report reflects the research results, comments and opinions of the team of authors. It does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the European Commission. It is organised around 9 themes – economy, demography, government policies, industrial development and competitiveness, relevant economic activity, IST penetration rates, institutional capacity and regulatory background, education, and culture. The section on each of these themes concludes with a specific SWOT analysis. Finally, a general diagnosis is made of Turkey’s potential for IS developments, followed by a brief section on possible scenarios for the future and policy recommendations. A Synthesis Report was also prepared by the Project Coordinator, the International Centre for Economic Growth, European Centre (ICEG EC), on the basis of all the country studies. This offers an integrated and prospective view on the future outlook for the Information Society in the Candidate Countries and can be found on the FISTE (Foresight in Information Society Technologies in Europe) website: http://fiste.jrc.es/ The contract was awarded by: Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) of the Directorate General Joint Research Centre, European Commission Contractor: International Centre for Economic Growth, European Centre (ICEG EC) – Coordinator of Consortium of 11 research institutes Turkish member of the Consortium: Bilkent University Contract name: Factors and Impacts in the Information Society: a Prospective Analysis in the Candidate Countries Contract number: N 20089-2002-11 F1ED SEV HU REPORT ON TURKEY 3 Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS COUNTRY PROFILE........................................................................................................................................... 7 A. NATIONAL AND REGIONAL ECONOMY................................................................................................. 11 A.1. Economic growth.................................................................................................................................... 11 A.2. Changes in employment ....................................................................................................................... 15 A.3. Changes in cross border capital flows ................................................................................................ 17 A.4. SWOT Analysis ..................................................................................................................................... 20 B. NATIONAL AND REGIONAL INFORMATION SOCIETY POLICIES.................................................... 21 B.1. Institutional settings and their influence on IS policies ..................................................................... 21 B.2. Chronological description of IS policies .............................................................................................. 25 B.3. Driving motivations of IS policies ......................................................................................................... 27 B.4. Objectives and results ........................................................................................................................... 28 B.5. The institutional setting behind the policies........................................................................................ 31 B.6. The commitment of private and public actors .................................................................................... 32 B.7. Specific important actors....................................................................................................................... 33 B.8. Conclusions............................................................................................................................................. 35 B.9. SWOT Analysis ..................................................................................................................................... 36 C. INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT AND COMPETITIVENESS .................................................................. 37 C.1. Structure of industrial production......................................................................................................... 37 C.2. Main regions of industrial production .................................................................................................. 39 C.3. Declining and rising sectors of industry and services....................................................................... 41 C.4. Changes in investment.......................................................................................................................... 43 C.5. Specific sectors' market size and value (ICT industry)..................................................................... 43 C.6. International co-operation and competition........................................................................................ 48 C.7. Regional cross country agreements.................................................................................................... 50 C.8. Major sectors of innovation activity ..................................................................................................... 51 C.9. Trade balance of ICT industry.............................................................................................................. 51 C.10. Major actors of ICT industry, role and presence of multinationals and/or foreign companies .52 C.11. Past and future of ICT industry .......................................................................................................... 55 C.12. SWOT Analysis .................................................................................................................................... 56 D. PRESENCE OF MOST RELEVANT ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES FOR IST APPLICATIONS.............. 59 D.1. The most relevant potential spill-over effects of IST......................................................................... 59 D.2. ICT investments ..................................................................................................................................... 60 D.3. Trends in innovation .............................................................................................................................. 62 D.4. Technological innovations in different sectors................................................................................... 67 D.5. SWOT Analysis ...................................................................................................................................... 72 E. INFORMATION SOCIETY TECHNOLOGIES (IST) PENETRATION RATES..................................... 73 E.1. Introduction.............................................................................................................................................. 73 E.2. IST in major service sectors ................................................................................................................ 76 E.3. IST in major manufacturing sectors..................................................................................................... 82 E.4. IST in public services............................................................................................................................. 86 E.5.

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