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Portrait Et Perspectives Du Marché Locatif RMR De Montréal

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Portrait Et Perspectives Du Marché Locatif RMR De Montréal Portrait et perspectives du marché locatif RMR de Montréal Geneviève Lapointe Lukas Jasmin-Tucci Économistes, Centre d’analyse de marché 13 février 2018 SOCIÉTÉ CANADIENNE D’HYPOTHÈQUES ET DE LOGEMENT Au programme 1. Profil des locataires 2. État du marché locatif traditionnel 3. État du marché des copropriétés en location 4. Les questions de l’heure • Quel est l’état du marché des résidences pour personnes âgées? • Retour vers le locatif des milléniaux et des baby-boomers? • Beaucoup d’acheteurs étrangers à Montréal? SOCIÉTÉ CANADIENNE D’HYPOTHÈQUES ET DE LOGEMENT Profil des locataires Quel est le profil de votre clientèle? SOCIÉTÉ CANADIENNE D’HYPOTHÈQUES ET DE LOGEMENT Une plus grande concentration de locataire dans les secteurs centraux * Source : Statistique Canada, Recensement de 2016 , Calculs de la SCHL SOCIÉTÉ CANADIENNE D’HYPOTHÈQUES ET DE LOGEMENT * Nombres de ménages locataires par km carré L’île de Montréal attire la majorité des nouveaux locataires Mouvements de ménages locataires en provenance de l’extérieur de la RMR de Montréal - 2016 5 750 17 035 Banlieue Source : Statistique Canada, Recensement de 2016 SOCIÉTÉ CANADIENNE D’HYPOTHÈQUES ET DE LOGEMENT Calculs de la SCHL Les locataires : une clientèle diversifiée Distribution des locataires selon le groupe d’âge – RMR de Montréal Moins de 35 ans 10% 75 ans et plus Ville-Marie (Griffintown), Plateau Mont-Royal 27% Pointe Est de l‘Île, Ouest de la Rive-Nord, Ouest de la Rive-Sud 28% 35-54 ans 55-74 ans St-Léonard, St-Laurent, St-Jean-sur-Richelieu, Pierrefonds-Roxboro, Vaudreuil-Soulanges Ahuntsic-Cartierville 36% Source : Statistique Canada, Recensement de 2016 SOCIÉTÉ CANADIENNE D’HYPOTHÈQUES ET DE LOGEMENT Calculs de la SCHL Une part importante de personnes seules et de familles parmi les locataires Distribution des locataires selon le type de ménage – RMR de Montréal Autres 8% Seuls Couples 15% sans enfant 48% 29% Familles Source : Statistique Canada, Recensement de 2016 SOCIÉTÉ CANADIENNE D’HYPOTHÈQUES ET DE LOGEMENT Calculs de la SCHL Davantage de personnes vivant seules dans les secteurs centraux de l’île Distribution des locataires selon le type de ménage – RMR de Montréal Ville-Marie 8% Seuls Plateau Mont-Royal 15% 48% Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie Mercier-Hochelaga-Maisonneuve 29% Ahuntsic-Cartierville Source : Statistique Canada, Recensement de 2016 SOCIÉTÉ CANADIENNE D’HYPOTHÈQUES ET DE LOGEMENT Calculs de la SCHL Davantage de familles en périphérie de l’Île Distribution des locataires selon le type de ménage – RMR de Montréal 8% Seuls 15% St-Léonard 48% St-Laurent Familles Montréal-Nord 29% Pierrefonds-Roxboro Source : Statistique Canada, Recensement de 2016 SOCIÉTÉ CANADIENNE D’HYPOTHÈQUES ET DE LOGEMENT Calculs de la SCHL Des revenus moyens plus faibles dans l’est de l’île de Montréal et dans l’ouest de la Rive-Nord Revenus moyens des ménages locataires selon le secteur - RMR de Montréal Source : Statistique Canada, Recensement de 2016 SOCIÉTÉ CANADIENNE D’HYPOTHÈQUES ET DE LOGEMENT Calculs de la SCHL Les immigrants: une part importante des ménages locataires dans la RMR de Montréal . Afflux annuel de 15k à 20k nouveaux ménages locataires . Représentent 30 % des locataires . Plus âgés (48% de ménages de 35-54 ans) . 46 % sont des familles . 35 % vivent seuls . (22 % non-immigrants) . (54 % non-immigrants) Source : Statistique Canada, Recensement 2011 et 2016 Calculs de la SCHL SOCIÉTÉ CANADIENNE D’HYPOTHÈQUES ET DE LOGEMENT Incluant les ménages locataires en copropriété Les ménages étudiants dans le marché locatif . 15 % des ménages locataires (100 000) . Une plus grande proportion de ménages . de type « autres » (ex. en colocation): 16 % . Revenu moyen : 43 000 $ (39 000 $ pour les ménages locataires avec étudiant) . Nombre de pièces en moyenne : 4,4 . (3,8 pour les ménages locataires avec étudiant) Source : Statistique Canada, Recensement de 2016 SOCIÉTÉ CANADIENNE D’HYPOTHÈQUES ET DE LOGEMENT Calculs de la SCHL Les locataires de copropriétés dans la RMR: un portrait différent . Clientèle plus jeune : plus de 36 % ont moins de 35 ans . Une part plus importante de couples sans enfant (21 %) . Revenu moyen de 57 000$ : 20 % plus élevé que sur le marché locatif traditionnel . Plus élevé à Outremont, Verdun (Île-des-Sœurs), Ville-Marie (Griffintown) Source : Statistique Canada, Recensement 2016 Calculs de la SCHL SOCIÉTÉ CANADIENNE D’HYPOTHÈQUES ET DE LOGEMENT État du marché locatif traditionnel Comment a évolué le marché? SOCIÉTÉ CANADIENNE D’HYPOTHÈQUES ET DE LOGEMENT Le taux d’inoccupation a diminué en 2017 Taux d’inoccupation (%) 6 RMR de Montréal 4,0 % 4 3,9 % 3,4 % 2,8 % 2,8 % 2 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source : SCHL SOCIÉTÉ CANADIENNE D’HYPOTHÈQUES ET DE LOGEMENT Montréal a le plus faible taux d’inoccupation des RMR du Québec Taux d'inoccupation (%) dans les RMR, octobre 2017 6.8 5.3 4.7 4.5 3.8 2.8 Saguenay Sherbrooke Trois-Rivières Québec Gatineau Montréal Source : SCHL SOCIÉTÉ CANADIENNE D’HYPOTHÈQUES ET DE LOGEMENT Une offre supérieure à la moyenne grâce au regain dans la construction de logements locatifs traditionnels Mises en chantier de logements locatifs traditionnels RMR de Montréal 9,000 69 % 8,000 7,692 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,318 4,553 4,000 3,000 1,917 1,510 1,732 2,000 1,217 1,000 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source : SCHL Note: excluant les coopératives SOCIÉTÉ CANADIENNE D’HYPOTHÈQUES ET DE LOGEMENT Un essor qui se manifeste aux quatre coins de la région Source : SCHL SOCIÉTÉ CANADIENNE D’HYPOTHÈQUES ET DE LOGEMENT Une demande locative traditionnelle en forte hausse grâce à un solde migratoire en hausse en 2016… et en 2017 Solde migratoire (personnes) RMR de Montréal 35,000 30,000 26,986 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 2017 à 2019 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source : Statistique Canada Prévisions : SCHL SOCIÉTÉ CANADIENNE D’HYPOTHÈQUES ET DE LOGEMENT Taux d’inoccupation et loyers plus bas à Laval et sur la Rive-Nord RMR de Montréal Taux Loyer moyen 2,8 %, 782 $ d’inoccupation 2 c.c. % $ Île 2,9 800 Laval 2,1 751 Rive-Nord 2,5 727 Rive-Sud 2,9 743 Vaudreuil-Soulanges 1,6 796 Source : SCHL, octobre 2017 SOCIÉTÉ CANADIENNE D’HYPOTHÈQUES ET DE LOGEMENT Des loyers beaucoup plus élevés dans les immeubles récents Immeubles construits après 2005 RMR de Montréal Taux Loyer moyen 3,3 %, 1 028 $ d’inoccupation 2 c.c. % $ Île 4,3 1 306 Laval - 974 Rive-Nord 3,0 876 Rive-Sud 2,1 937 Source : SCHL, octobre 2017 SOCIÉTÉ CANADIENNE D’HYPOTHÈQUES ET DE LOGEMENT Données non disponible pour Vaudreuil-Soulanges Taux d’inoccupation plus élevé, mais en baisse dans les grands immeubles 3 à 5 unités 6 à 19 unités 20 à 49 unités 50 à 199 unités 200 + unités 2,7 % 2,6 % 3,0 % 3,6 % 3,4 % SOCIÉTÉ CANADIENNE D’HYPOTHÈQUES ET DE LOGEMENT Source : SCHL, octobre 2017, RMR de Montréal Hausse globale des loyers Variation estimative du loyer moyen Nombre de chambres Oct. 2016 à oct. 2017 (%) Île de Montréal + 2,3 Laval + 2,3 Rive-Nord + 1,5 Rive-Sud + 1,7 RMR de Montréal + 2,2 Source : SCHL SOCIÉTÉ CANADIENNE D’HYPOTHÈQUES ET DE LOGEMENT Taux de rotation des locataires % de logements où un nouveau locataire a emménagé au cours Île de Montréal 17 % des douze derniers mois RMR de Montréal 17 % Centre-ville de Montréal 28 % Source : SCHL SOCIÉTÉ CANADIENNE D’HYPOTHÈQUES ET DE LOGEMENT Prévisions pour le marché locatif Construction soutenue d’appartements locatifs Pression à la hausse sur le taux d’inoccupation au cours des prochaines années Source : SCHL SOCIÉTÉ CANADIENNE D’HYPOTHÈQUES ET DE LOGEMENT Risques sur le marché locatif Événement déclencheur Réfugiés et hausse des cibles d’immigration Jeunes ménages plus locataires Risque Pression à la baisse sur le taux d’inoccupation Source : SCHL SOCIÉTÉ CANADIENNE D’HYPOTHÈQUES ET DE LOGEMENT État du marché des copropriétés à louer Comment a évolué le marché? SOCIÉTÉ CANADIENNE D’HYPOTHÈQUES ET DE LOGEMENT Forte augmentation des copropriétés offertes en location Nombre de copropriétés offertes en location RMR de Montréal 35,000 32 200 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 8 800 10,000 5,000 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source : SCHL SOCIÉTÉ CANADIENNE D’HYPOTHÈQUES ET DE LOGEMENT C’est au centre-ville de Montréal où la proportion de copropriétés à louer est la plus importante Pourcentage (%) de copropriétés offertes en location, 2017 Centre-Ville/Île-des-Soeurs 25 Île de Montréal 17 Laval 24 Rive-Nord 13 Rive-Sud 14 Ensemble de la RMR 17 Source : SCHL SOCIÉTÉ CANADIENNE D’HYPOTHÈQUES ET DE LOGEMENT Copropriétés offertes en location : un produit en demande RMR de Montréal Centre-ville / Île-des-Soeurs Taux d’inocc. à 1,8 % en baisse Taux d’inocc. stable à 2,5 % Loyer moyen 1 180 $ Loyer moyen 2 119 $ Loyer 51 % plus élevé que sur le Loyer 46 % plus élevé que sur le marché locatif traditionnel marché locatif traditionnel SOCIÉTÉ CANADIENNE D’HYPOTHÈQUES ET DE LOGEMENT Source : SCHL, octobre 2017 Questions de l’heure SOCIÉTÉ CANADIENNE D’HYPOTHÈQUES ET DE LOGEMENT Questions de l’heure Quel est l’état du marché des résidences pour personnes âgées? SOCIÉTÉ CANADIENNE D’HYPOTHÈQUES ET DE LOGEMENT Résidences pour personnes âgées en 2017 : un taux d’inoccupation en baisse Taux d’attraction 17 % Taux d’inoccupation 5,9 % SOCIÉTÉ CANADIENNE D’HYPOTHÈQUES ET DE LOGEMENT Source : SCHL Résidences pour personnes âgées en 2017 : un taux d’inoccupation en baisse Environ 3 000 nouvelles Tauxunitésd’attractions’ajouteront17prochainement % (4x plus que la moyenne Taux d’inoccupationdes dernières5,9années % ) SOCIÉTÉ CANADIENNE D’HYPOTHÈQUES ET DE LOGEMENT Source : SCHL Questions de l’heure Retour vers le locatif des milléniaux et des baby-boomers ? SOCIÉTÉ CANADIENNE D’HYPOTHÈQUES ET DE LOGEMENT Les jeunes ménages un peu plus locataires… qu’avant Proportion (%) de ménages locataires Proportion (%) de ménages locataires chez les moins de 25 ans chez les 25 à 34 ans 95 92.7 91.9 95 90 88.7 87.9 90 84.7 85 85 80 80 75 75 70 70 66.5 67.6 64.4 63.5 65 65 61.6 60 60 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 Source : Statistique Canada, recensements de 1971 à 2016 et Enquête nationale auprès des ménages de 2011.
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