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China Internet Sector China / Hong Kong Industry Focus China Internet Sector Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 15 Mar 2018 2018 Outlook: Bullish; shifting towards online ads HSI : 31,601 Expect market to focus more on online ads with its stronger growth of 29% in 2018F, vs online A N ALYST games’ 24% Tsz Wang TAM CFA, +852 2971 1772 tszwangtam@dbs.com Expect more game genres in top 10, but difficult Susanna CHUI +852 2820 4611 to predict successful titles; we like Tencent as it is susanna_chui@dbs.com a strong publisher with diversified game genres Online ad budget shifting to “actionable ads”, favourable to Alibaba who currently owns most of actionable ad inventories through Taobao and Recommendation & valuation Tmall T arget Company Price Price Recom 18F 18F Bullish on China’s Internet sector; market focus shifting from HK$ HK$ PE P/S games to online ads. We are bullish on China’s internet sector x x outlook for 2018, as internet companies’ two key segments - Alibaba# 188.41 234.00 BUY 32.9 9.4 (i) online games and (ii) online advertising - are expected to (BABA US) maintain robust growth of 24% y-o-y and 29% respectively in Tencent 462.8 512.0 BUY 38.0 10.3 2018. We expect the market focus will shift from online games (700 HK) to online ads, due to (i) online ads’ stronger growth and (ii) JD.com 44.32 61.00 BUY 248.3 0.8 lower predictability on successful game titles. We therefore (JD US) prefer Alibaba (BABA US), which also trades at a lower multiple Kingsoft 28.35 34.00 BUY 23.2 4.5 to Tencent (700 HK). (3888 HK) Netdragon Websoft 21.65 36.00 BUY 54.9 1.9 Games: Excitement with new game genres, but lower (777 HK) predictability on game titles. After the conversion of PC game Source: Thomson Reuters, DBS Vickers IPs into mobile games in the past few years, we are excited with the rising new game genres in the top 10 (instead of # FY3/19 being dominated by massively multiplayer online role-playing Note: Closing Price at 13 Mar 2018 games [MMORPGs]), such as survival games (i.e. PUBG) and casual games (i.e. QQ Speed Mobile). But the visibility on potentially successful game titles is much lower. We like (i) game developers with a conversion pipeline from PC IPs such as Kingsoft (3888 HK) and NetDragon (777 HK), (ii) game developers with a more diversified game genres such as Tencent, and (iii) strong game publishers which can secure popular third-party games, such as Tencent. Online ad: Alibaba benefits from favourable budget shift to “actionable ads”. We forecast that advertisers will have a larger budget on “actionable ads” (ads which lead to action i.e. sales), driven by improving data analytics and therefore better target marketing. Alibaba, with its leading e-commerce platforms which have the most actionable ad inventories, will benefit the most in the medium term. The online ad market is growing faster than mobile games, and Tencent’s ability to catch up in the online ad market will take time. As such, we prefer Alibaba at this stage. ed-JS / sa-CS / AH Industry Focus China Internet Sector Introduction We are bullish on China’s internet sector outlook for 2018, as 59.8%, and 91.5% of Tencent’s, Alibaba’s, and Baidu’s the two key segments for internet companies - (i) online games revenue. Moreover, we expect that the market will shift its and (ii) online advertising - are expected to deliver strong attention from online games to online ads, due to (i) online growth of 23.8% y-o-y and 29.3% y-o-y respectively in 2018. ads’ stronger growth and (ii) lower predictability on potentially Note that online games accounted for 47% of Tencent’s successful game titles. revenue, while online advertising accounted for 17.8%, Revenue mix of Tencent (FY16) Revenue mix of Alibaba (FY3/17) 11.3% 18.6% 46.6% 24.3% 21.6% 59.8% 17.8% Online games Online advertising Content subscriptions Others Online advertising Commissions Others Revenue mix of Baidu (FY16) Revenue mix of JD (FY16) Note that commission, online 8.5% advertising, and logistics services 41.7% contributed 40+%, 55.2% 30+% and 10+% of 3P 91.5% revenue Online advertising Others Direct sales (1P) Thirty-party marketplace (3P) Source: Company, DBS Vickers Page 2 Industry Focus China Internet Sector Online games – healthy but less predictable online role-playing games (MMORPGs), such as Fantasy Westward Journey (夢幻西遊), Blade & Soul (劍靈), TLBB (新天 龍八部), Final Fantasy 14 (最終幻想 14), Legend of MIR (熱血 We are bullish on the online game segment with new 傳奇), Ghost (新倩女幽魂), AskTao (問道), Eudemons Online ( excitements including survival games (i.e. PUBG) as well as 魔域), MU Miracle (奇蹟 MU), Jiu Yin Zhen Jing (九陰真經), casual games (i.e. QQ Speed Mobile). iResearch expects China’s and Shenwu 3 (神武 3). online game market to grow by 23.8% y -o-y growth in 2018F, with mobile games expanding by 31.9%, and PC games However, most of the top PC game IPs (based on top 30 PC (including client end and web based) registering moderate games) are now exhausted. We expect the number of mobile single digit growth. Note that online games accounted for games converted from top PC games will drop from 7 in 2017, 46.6%, 30.7%, and 43.3% of Tencent’s (700 HK), Kingsoft to 3 in 2018F. The mobile games that will be converted from (3888 HK) and NetDragon’s (777 HK) FY16 revenue. top 30 PC game IPs in 2018F will be Nexon's (3659 JT)’s DNF Mobile (地下城與勇士), Kingsoft (3888 HK)’s JX3 Mobile (劍俠 情緣 3 手遊) which will be published by Tencent, as well as China's online game market NetDragon’s (777 HK)’s Eudemons 3D Mobile (魔域 3D 手遊). Rmb bn 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F As the number of mobile games converted from top PC games PC games - 66 61 57 60 63 is getting smaller, the visibility on which game titles or game clients-end developers will standout will be lower. PC games - web 22 16 14 14 10 Mobile games 56 102 142 188 214 No. of mobile games converted from top 30 PC games Others 0 0 3 6 13 Total 144 179 217 268 301 y-o-y 2018 3 PC games - -7.8% -5.6% 5.5% 5.1% clients-end PC games - web -26.1% -12.9% 0.6% -31.0% 2017 7 Mobile games 81.8% 39.2% 31.9% 14.2% Others 89.8% 114.4% Total 24.6% 21.2% 23.8% 12.1% 2016 5 Source: iResearch, DBS Vickers 2015 6 Key trend # 1: Poor visibility now that “conversion of PC games to mobile games” has peaked. ”Conversion of PC 0 2 4 6 8 games to mobile games” was the key driver in the online game segment in the past few years. Mobile games converted from Source: Company, DBS Vickers PC game IPs occupied 7 positions on average among the top 10 mobile games in China on iOS in 2017, vs. 3 and 6 in 2015 and 2016 respectively. Most of them are massively multiplayer Page 3 Industry Focus China Internet Sector Key trend # 2: More game genres in top 10, previously dominated by MMORPGs. MMORPGs dominated the top 10 Key trend #3: Survival game the new market focus. mobile games in the past few years, as most of the hit mobile PlayerUnknown’s Battlegrounds, a PC survival game (also a game titles converted from PC games were mostly MMORPGs. third person shooting game) developed by Bluehole was Based on the experience in global markets, we expect to see a launched in 2017 and is well received in the market. We more diversified range of game genres in long term, including reckon a few survival game titles in mobile space will gain (i) casual games, (ii) strategy games, and (ii) survival games. popularity, including NetEase’s Wilderness / Knives out (荒野行 Note that non-MMORPG occupied 3 positions among the top 動) and Terminator 2 (終結者 2) as well as Tencent’s Cross Fire: 10 mobile games in China on iOS in December 2017, vs. only 1 Legends (穿越火線: 槍戰王者) and Glorious Mission (光榮使 position in December 2016. Here are some of the recent hit 命). Separately, Tencent has also launched PUBG: Heroes of games: Example 1: Tencent launched car racing game, QQ Battle (絕地求生: 全軍出擊, co-developed by Bluehole and Speed Mobile (QQ 飛車手遊) in November 2017, based on its Tencent's Timi Studio [Honour of Kings’ developer]) and PUBG: legacy PC game, QQ Speed (QQ 飛車). Its monthly gross billing Exciting Battlefield (絕地求生: 刺激戰場, co-developed by rose quickly to top 2 in China’s mobile games list on iOS for Bluehole and Tencent's Quantum Studio) in February 2018. two months. Example 2: Tencent’s King of Chaos (亂世王者) ranked as one of the top 10 in China’s mobile games list on iOS for five months from July 2017. All in all, we expect a more PUBG: Exciting Battlefield diversified range of game genres to “randomly” pop up in the top 10 ranking. Casual games (i.e. QQ Speed Mobile) Source: Company, DBS Vickers NetEase’s Wilderness had an early-mover advantage in 2017. It Source: Company, DBS Vickers ranked in the top 10 in China’s mobile games list on iOS in February 2018. But it has now been challenged by Tencent’s PUBG: Exciting Battlefield, which is the top China mobile game Strategy games (i.e.
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