SOCIAL MEDIA RULER: FACEBOOK
Presented by
50 RULERS OF ENGAGEMENT Presented by NAB Show CATEGORY COMPANY A small group of big SVOD Netflix Search Google companies dominate a Wearables Apple Box Office Disney dizzying array of products Streaming Audio Spotify Smart Speakers Amazon and services aimed at Social Media Facebook Messaging Facebook your eyes and ears. App Stores Apple Operating Systems Microsoft
In the grand scheme of how a global ing with each other across a broad swath Cloud Services Amazon pandemic will reshape the future, there are of overlapping business interests, from Smartphones Samsung more profound issues to consider than the TV stations to app stores to video game PCs/Tablets Apple impact COVID-19 is having on the media consoles to smart watches. and technology businesses. But even as so These companies are the “Rulers of TV Networks Disney much is disrupting these industries, some Engagement.” Variety Intelligence Platform TV Stations Nexstar things don’t change: Their competitive and the National Association of Broad- framework remains intact. casters present a topline examination of Pay TV Comcast From 30-minute TV shows to 3-milisec- the trends and rivalries that distinguish SVOD Aggregators Amazon ond search-engine returns, a mega-war is the many different markets in the atten- being waged for mindshare across billions tion economy. In the slides that follow, we Virtual MVPDs Disney of devices worldwide. While the media examine 25 such competitive sets. Connected TV Roku business is at the epicenter of this frenzy, Take a front-row seat to the biggest Game Publishers Tencent it’s the technology giants who have esca- business battleground on the planet. lated the conflict. They too create content Livestreaming Amazon to support their ultimate goal: keeping Game Consoles Sony consumers inside their ecosystems of products and services for as long as possi- Cloud Gaming Sony ble (and away from their rivals). VR Headsets Facebook That means conglomerates from Apple Andrew Wallenstein Smart Glasses Microsoft to AT&T to Amazon to Disney are compet- President and Chief Media Analyst, VIP
RULERS OF ENGAGEMENT Presented by NAB Show SVOD RULER:RULER: FACEBOOK NETFLIX
OWNER SERVICE A surge of new subscription Alphabet YouTube Premium LAUNCH video on demand services Amazon Amazon Prime Video LAUNCH LAUNCH LAUNCH isn’t likely anytime soon LAUNCH Apple Apple TV Plus October 2015 April 2018 to topple Netflix, the July 2015 April 15, 2020 AT&T HBO Now, HBO Max Nov. 12, 2019 (for Xfinity); company far and away at GLOBAL SUBS GLOBAL SUBS GLOBAL SUBS Comcast Peacock July 15, 2020 the forefront of this market. GLOBAL SUBS Disney ESPN Plus, Disney Plus, Hulu 11m** 20m*** 7.9m (for public) Lionsgate Starz 54.5m FLAGSHIP FLAGSHIP FLAGSHIP GLOBAL SUBS CONTENT Netflix Netflix CONTENT CONTENT FLAGSHIP ViacomCBS CBS All Access†, Showtime CONTENT N/A “Billions” "Cobra Kai" "Detail" "The FLAGSHIP Mandalorian" CONTENT “Battlestar Galactica” reboot
LAUNCH LAUNCH LAUNCH LAUNCH LAUNCH LAUNCH LAUNCH LAUNCH March 2008 April 2015 April 2016 May 27, 2020 January 2007 February 2011 October 2014 Nov. 1, 2019 GLOBAL SUBS GLOBAL SUBS GLOBAL SUBS GLOBAL SUBS GLOBAL SUBS GLOBAL SUBS GLOBAL SUBS GLOBAL SUBS 32.1m 8m 8.6m^ N/A 183m 150m* 11m** N/A FLAGSHIP FLAGSHIP FLAGSHIP FLAGSHIP FLAGSHIP CONTENT FLAGSHIP CONTENT CONTENT FLAGSHIP CONTENT CONTENT CONTENT FLAGSHIP CONTENT CONTENT “Handmaid’s “Game of "Power" “Tokyo Vice” “Stranger “The Tale” “Twilight Thrones” "The Morning Things” Marvelous Zone” Show" Mrs. Maisel“
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
FIRST WAVE SECOND WAVE
SOURCE: MOST RECENT COMPANY DISCLOSURES; DIGITAL TV RESEARCH (GLOBAL REVENUE); NOTE: *AMAZON PRIME VIDEO FIGURE REPRESENTS NUMBER OF GLOBAL AMAZON PRIME MEMBERS. †VIACOMCBS HAS ANNOUNCED PLANS TO LAUNCH AN UPGRADED VERSION OF CBS ALL ACCESS, BUT HAS YET TO DISCLOSE DETAILS. **CBS ALL ACCESS-SHOWTIME OTT COMBINED. ***FIGURE IS ACROSS YOUTUBE PREMIUM AND YOUTUBE MUSIC. ^LIONSGATE OTT SUB COUNT.
Global $36b $47b $87b SVOD Revenue 2018 2019 2024
1 RULERS OF ENGAGEMENT Presented by NAB Show SEARCH RULER: GOOGLE
U.S. Search Engine Market Share for Q2 2019
MARKET SHARE
Google 93.53% Google Search 69.35% Google Images 20.45% YouTube 2.98% Google Maps 0.75% Estimated Net U.S. Amazon 1.99% Ad Revenue Share for 2020 Yahoo (Verizon) 1.41% AD SHARE Bing (Microsoft) 1.18% Google 71.1% Facebook 0.96% Amazon 14.3% DuckDuckGo 0.4% Microsoft 5.9% Twitter 0.2% Verizon 1.7% Pinterest 0.2% Yelp 1.7% IAC 0.7% Other 4.6%
Google’s long-lasting domination of the search engine market is unparalleled. They’ve simply owned it since the beginning, though Amazon has strengthened its hand over time.
SOURCE: JUMPSHOT, SPARKTORO(MARKET SHARE); EMARKETER (AD SHARE)
2 RULERS OF ENGAGEMENT Presented by NAB Show WEARABLES RULER: APPLE
Smartwatches are expected to demonstrate healthy growth this year alongside hearables like AirPods—all good news for Apple, the leader in both categories.
Global Wearables Market 2019
MARKET SHIPMENTS SHARE
Earwear 139.4m 45.7% Smartwatches 69.3m 22.7% Wristbands 68.2m 22.4% Global Smartwatch Other 28.2m 9.2% Market Share Q1 2019 Total 305.2m 100% MARKET SHARE
Apple 35.8% Global Earbud Market Share Sept. 2019 Samsung 11.1% NOTABLE MARKET COMPANY PRODUCTS SHARE BBK (imoo) 9.2%
Apple AirPods, Beats 50.2% Fitbit 5.5% Samsung Galaxy Buds 10.2% Xiaomi (Amazfit) 3.7% Xiaomi AirDots 6.5% Huawei 2.8% Bose SoundSport 5.7% Fossil Group 2.5% GN Group Jabra 5.1% Garmin 1.5% Other 22.3% Others 27.9
SOURCE: IDC (WEARABLES 2019, EARBUDS SEPT. 2019); COUNTERPOINT RESEARCH (SMARTWATCHES Q1 2019)
3 RULERS OF ENGAGEMENT Presented by NAB Show BOX OFFICE RULER: DISNEY
Domestic Studio Market Share Other 100% 5.5%
2.6% 2.9%
5.0%
7.0% 80%
11.8%
60% While no rival studio can match Disney, the entire 13.4% film business is poised for a dramatic decline in 2020 due to widespread theater closures amid 13.8% the pandemic.
40%
4.8%
38.1%
20%
11.4% 12.1% 13.9% 12.2% 13.9% 14.9% 14.9% 19.8% 26.3% 21.8% 26.0% 33.3%
0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
SOURCE: BOX OFFICE MOJO
4 RULERS OF ENGAGEMENT Presented by NAB Show STREAMING AUDIO RULER: SPOTIFY
AVG. YoY Estimated Trajectory of SERVICE GROWTH Global Paid Music Streaming Subscribers by Service Spotify +27% 250m Spotify still leads the Apple Music +18% sector expected to account Amazon Music +21% for close to three quarters of all recorded music 200m Tencent Music +18% revenue by 2022, and is Global Recorded Music Google Play/YouTube +4% Revenue by Segment also making a push into Pandora +1% podcasts to contest Apple’s 150m Digital Streaming control of the space. Physical Recordings Satellite Radio Digital Downloads 100m Mobile Recordings (ringtones)
50m
2% 0
8% 2% 2% ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 11%
18%
2018 47% 17% 2022E 13.1% Spotify
2.8% | Overcast U.S. Podcast 57.9% Usage Share Apple 2.7% | Castbox Across Aggregator 25% 68% 2.3% | Stitcher Platforms (45% growth) (Sep 2019) 1.8% | Google 1.5% | Podcast Addicts 1.2% | PocketCast 16.7% Other
SOURCE: MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH, RIAA, IFPI, RAB, PWC (RECORDED MUSIC REV BY SEGMENT); MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH, RIAA, IFPI, WSJ, REUTERS (STREAMING SERVICE PAID SUB FORECAST); PODCASTS: LIBSYN
5 RULERS OF ENGAGEMENT Presented by NAB Show SMART SPEAKERS RULER: AMAZON
The growth in smart speaker ownership opens up a new channel for media companies to 10.0% 2.7% 2.2% reach consumers with Percent of Households Other Apple Sonos digital audio ads, and HomePod One That Own Each Device Amazon’s entries into 0.2% this market have proven Google to be the most fruitful. Home Max 95% 91% 96% 96% 87%
75% 80% 14.9% 72% 1.2% Other 31.4% 69% Google Amazon Home Hub Echo Dot
Share of U.S. Smart 23.8% Speaker 61.1% 11.2% Market Google 31% Home Mini
22% 23%
18% 11.2% 23.2% Google Amazon Home Echo or Plus 12% 8%
’19 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’17 ’18 Smart Speakers ’19 +41% YoY ’17 ’18 Smart Watches ’19 +28% YoY ’17 ’18 Laptop ’19 +4% YoY 3.0% 3.5% ’17 ’18 Smartphone Amazon Amazon TV +5% YoY Echo Show Echo Spot Even YoY
SOURCE: CONSUMER TECHNOLOGY ASSOCIATION (PENETRATION OF TECH DEVICES); VOICEBOT (SMART SPEAKER MARKET SHARE)
6 RULERS OF ENGAGEMENT Presented by NAB Show SOCIAL MEDIA RULER: FACEBOOK
Most Popular Social Platforms (Global MAUs) First-Time Installs of TikTok by Quarter
250m
200m
2.6b 2.0b 1.6b Facebook YouTube WhatsApp Apr 2020 Feb 2020 Oct 2019 Though Facebook is clearly in command with four of the top ten biggest social platforms, what may be more 150m remarkable is the TikTok growth story, particularly 1.3b 1.1b 1.0b among younger demos. FB WeChat/ Instagram Messenger Weixin Jun 2018 Oct 2019 Oct 2019
100m
808m 625m 517m QQ TikTok Qzone Oct 2019 Dec 2019 Sep 2019 50m
497m 430m 330m Sina Weibo Reddit Twitter Sep 2019 Dec 2019 Apr 2019 0 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 NOTE: DATES REFER TO MONTH OF MAU DISCLOSURE 2016 2017 2018 2019
SOURCE: COMPANY REPORTS, DATAREPORTAL (MAUS); SENSOR TOWER, 2020 (TIK TOK)
7 RULERS OF ENGAGEMENT Presented by NAB Show MESSAGING RULER: FACEBOOK
Mobile Messaging Apps by Monthly Global Active Users, Oct 2019
App: WhatsApp | Owner: Facebook | Global Monthly Active Users: 1.6b | Video Chat:
Video Chat Usage Booms Due to COVID-19
App: Facebook Messenger | Owner: Facebook | Global Monthly Active Users: 1.3b | Video Chat: Zoom Meet 378% 60%+ Year-over-year daily Sustained daily meeting participants active user growth as of March 22 as of March 31 App: WeChat | Owner: Tencent | Global Monthly Active Users: 1.1b | Video Chat:
Teams Skype 38% 70% Week-over-week daily Month-over-month App: QQ Mobile | Owner: Tencent | Global Monthly Active Users: 808m | Video Chat: active users as of daily active users as With people stuck in their March 19 of March 30 homes across the globe, video chat services have seen massive spikes in usage, but none as dramatic as Zoom’s, so much so that Facebook is hastily revamping its App: Snapchat | Owner: Snap Inc. | Global Monthly Active Users: 314m | Video Chat: Messenger WhatsApp own video chat operations through the newly announced 70% 100%+ Messenger Rooms. Week-over-week Year-over-year participant increase voice/video calls in on group video calls countries hit hardest as of March 24 by virus as of SOURCE: DATAREPORTAL, COMPANY REPORTS March 24 (GLOBAL ACTIVE USERS); MICROSOFT, GOOGLE, MARKETWATCH, CNET (COVID-19) App: Telegram | Owner: Telegram | Global Monthly Active Users: 200m | Video Chat:
8 RULERS OF ENGAGEMENT Presented by NAB Show APP STORES RULER: APPLE
2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E
CAGR 15.8% 13.2% Global App Store Revenues & Forecast = estimate
$47b $25b $55b $30b $67b $35b $80b $40b $91b $45b $103b $50b $115b $56b
CAGR 7.8% 10.5%
Google’s lead in Play Store downloads has done little to stop them from trailing Apple’s App Store revenue, which will only widen by 2024.
Global App Store Downloads & Forecast
30b 77b 31b 85b 39b 102b 38b 109b 40b 119b 42b 129b 45b 139b
SOURCE: SENSOR TOWER
9 RULERS OF ENGAGEMENT Presented by NAB Show OPERATING SYSTEMS RULER: MICROSOFT
Global PC Operating System Market Share Windows OS X Linux/Chrome OS/Other 6
While Microsoft is steadily losing some of its lead over Apple in the PC OS market, it still dwarfs the company in global usage, while Google is expected to increase its mobile OS strength at a much slower pace. 80.4% 77.8%
93.0% 91.5% 90.0% 90.7% 88.98% 87.0% 83.9% 83.8%
9.9% 12.0% 12.8% 14.2% 9.4% 6.6% 7.5% 7.7% 8.73% 5.8%
Global Smartphone Operating 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 System Market Share & Forecast Android iOS
85.1% 85.1% 87.0% 87.0% 87.2% 87.3% 87.4%
14.7% 14.9% 13.0% 13.0% 12.8% 12.7% 12.6% SOURCE: STATCOUNTER (PC); IDC (SMARTPHONE) ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20E ’21E ’22E ’23E
10 RULERS OF ENGAGEMENT Presented by NAB Show CLOUD SERVICES RULER: AMAZON
Global Cloud Market Share Between Top 3 Vendors
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E
4% 4% 4% 7% 8% 9% 10% 14% 18% 23% 26% 29% 31% 31% 82% 78% 73% 67% 63% 60% 59%
Data Center Regions 54 46 42 Amazon Web Services is the go-to provider for cloud 22 20 22 20 infrastructure, but big tech 17 16 18 11 14 11 neighbors are creeping in. 4 6
Capital Expenditures $25.1b $26.5b $26.8b $21.9b $19.7b Amazon Web Services $12.0b $13.1b $13.9b $9.9b $10.2b $11.6b Microsoft Azure $9.3b $8.3b $8.1b $5.9b Google Cloud
SOURCE: JEFFERIES, COMPANY REPORTS
11 RULERS OF ENGAGEMENT Presented by NAB Show SMARTPHONES RULER: SAMSUNG
Annual Market Share of Smartphone Manufacturers Global Smartphone Sales Forecast by Units Sold
Chinese manufacturers are steadily pushing Samsung | 20.1% out smaller businesses 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E
and taking away from 1.59b 1.57b 1.56b
Apple’s market share as 1.54b 1.54b
they work to get closer 1.50b to Samsung’s position at the top of the smartphone market. BBK | 15.8%
Apple | 13.2%
Huawei | 16.1%
Xiaomi | 8.4%
Others | 26.3%
SOURCE: COUNTERPOINT RESEARCH, GARTNER
12 RULERS OF ENGAGEMENT Presented by NAB Show PCs / TABLETS RULER: APPLE
Lenovo may have Top Global Laptop achieved a small lead over and Desktop HP in the PC market, but Shipments Apple’s lead in tablets is much more defined, having shipped twice as Global many units as Samsung. Tablet Shipments
UNIT MARKET YoY UNIT MARKET YoY SHIPMENTS SHARE CHG. SHIPMENTS SHARE CHG.
Lenovo 64.8m 24.3% +8.2% Apple 44.3m 27.7% -1.3% HP Inc. 62.9m 23.6% +4.8% Samsung 21.8m 13.6% -5.6% Dell 46.5m 17.5% +5.4% Amazon 15.2m 9.5% +31.0% Apple 17.7m 6.6% -2.2% Huawei 14.4m 9.0% -6.5% Acer Group 17.0m 6.4% -4.6% Lenovo 8.5m 5.3% -3.4% Other 57.8m 21.7% -3.1% Others 55.9m 34.9% -19.3% Total 266.7m 100.0% +2.7% Total 160.2m 100.0% -7.5%
SOURCE: IDC (PCS 2019); STRATEGY ANALYTICS (TABLET 2019)
13 RULERS OF ENGAGEMENT Presented by NAB Show Press Command Shift x to retain text size afer resizing graph
U.S. consumers who listen to podcasts monthly m m m m m m m m m m of population £
North America Global Connected Device TV ª ª Legend Xyxyxyxyxy Legend Xyxyxyxyxy HH:MM ª chg. ª £ Oct Nov Dec Jan ª ª ª SOURCE: PLUTO.COM AND PLUTO APP; VIP ANALYSIS - b b b b b b b - - ª - - SOURCE: DIGITAL TV RESEARCH Q¢ Q¢ Q¢ Q¢
SOURCE: XYXYXYXYXYX XYXYXYXYXYXYX SOURCE: XYXYXYXYXYX XYXYXYXYXYXYX SOURCE: NIELSEN TOTAL AUDIENCE REPORT SOURCE: XYXYXYXYXYX XYXYXYXYXYXYX NOTE: TV IS A NET OF THE CATEGORIES "LIVE TV" AND "DVR¦TIMESHIFTED TV". CONNECTED DEVICE IS A NET OF THE CATEGORIES "INTERNET CONNECTED DEVICE" AND "VIDEOFOCUSED APP¦WEB". NOTE THAT "INTERNET CONNECTED DEVICE" WAS TRACKED AS "MULTIMEDIA DEVICE" IN £ AND "VIDEOFOCUSED APP¦WEB" WAS TRACKED AS "VIDEO ON SMARTPHONE" IN £. min. Bu«ering has consistently Play Duration/Engagement min. improved, with £ less YoY AVOD min. Q¢
min. - min. Number of weekly Feb £ podcasts listened to in the min. past week among weekly U.S. min. m m m m m m podcasts listeners age and older - - - - - - - - - - - SOURCE: FIERCEVIDEO PLUTO TV; USA TODAY XUMO Rebuering Ratio TV SOURCE: CONVIVA Q SVOD SOURCE: XYXYXYXYXYX XYXYXYXYXYXYX SOURCE: SAMSUNG ADS - £ Disney still pulls in the most revenue from its channels, m m RULER: DISNEY SOURCE: EDISON RESEARCH AND TRITON DIGITAL TV NETWORKS which accounts for nearly a Total Views for YouTube Channels With FAST Network Percentage of U.S. population who listen to podcasts monthly quarter of all of its revenue m even as it makes serious strides into the SVOD space. m m m-m m- m Percentage of U.S. population m-m Game Revenues at Top Public Companies in Video Game Space, Q- Pluto TV Xumo STIRR reached weekly, Top Cable Networks by Primetime Total Viewers by media type Sector Specialty: Mobile PC Console m-m 70 of the Top 100 Are Network Owner m m m- m Controlled by Five Companies Tencent 1 Fox News Channel Fox m-m Streaming Satellite radio Nets Sony Company Owned 2 SOURCE: audio on ESPN Apple Disney (80%) m-b COMPANY tablet Discovery 19 WEBSITES & APPS; 3 MSNBC Microsoft Comcast b-b VIP ANALYSIS m m Samsung Roku JANUARY Disney/Disney Ownership Stake 17 Google b TV Plus Podcasts 4 HGTV Discovery ViacomCBS 16 NetEase 5 Hallmark Channel Crown Media Streaming Comcast 10 Activision Blizzard SOURCE: YOUTUBE; VIP ANALYSIS JANUARY audio on 6 TBS EA AT&T m m smartphone AM/FM radio AT&T 8 7 TNT Nintendo AT&T Total Awareness Ever Used Never Used Pluto TV Viacom CBS Bandai Namco 8 USA Comcast SOURCE: PLUTO.COM AND PLUTO APP; VIP ANALYSIS JANUARY Fox 5 Take-Two Interactive 9 CNN AT&T m m AMC Networks 5 Nexon ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' 10 Sony 1 History Ubisoft Disney (50%) SOURCE: EDISON RESEARCH AND TRITON DIGITAL Independent 19 11 TLC Netmarble Discovery NOTE: FIGURES ARE FOR CONSUMERS OVER AGE SOURCE: EDISON RESEARCH SOURCE: EDISON RESEARCH SOURCE: NIELSEN, EDISON RESEARCH, TRITON DIGITAL, ; Warner Bros Interactive NOTE: ALL FIGURES EXCEPT FOR PODCASTS ARE FOR U.S. 12 A&E Network Disney (50%) CONSUMERS OVER AGE IN Q ; PODCAST FIGURES ARE FOR CONSUMERS OVER AGE AS OF . 13 ID bDiscovery b b b b b 14 Discovery b Discovery m 15 Food Network Revenue from subscriptionsDiscovery and micro-transactions are expected to increase as major sources of industry growth Total Awareness Ever Used Never Used - - - 16 m Monthly U.S. podcast listeners Revenue from domestic cable networks in TV Land ViacomCBS SOURCE: HUB RESEARCH OCTOBER b b U.S. consumers familiar with podcasting of total revenue from cable networks in | 17 FX Disney m m 18 AMC Physical GamingAMC Software Networks b m b 19 Bravo Gaming SubscriptionsComcast
20 INSP Inspiration Ministries m vs. m b 21 Lifetime b Disney (50%) In-Game Purchases m 22 Hallmark Movies & Mysteries Crown Media Music m 23 Freeform Disney Video/ b b - - - Audio m 24 TV Adult Swim AT&T SOURCE: CORD CUTTERS NEWS AND ; FIERCEVIDEO ; COMPANY STATEMENT SOURCE: HUB RESEARCH OCTOBER 25 Syfy Digital GamingComcast Software b ° b ° b °b °b ° b °b ° b Sports b Comcast AMC Nets AT&T Discovery Disney Fox ViacomCBS SOURCES: NIELSEN (OWNERS); COMPANY REPORTS (REVENUE) n/a E E E E E m Oct Nov Dec Jan Movie SOURCE: SAMSUNG TV PLUS APP SOURCE: EDISON RESEARCH AND TRITON DIGITAL, ; NOTE: FIGURES ARE FOR U.S. CONSUMERS OVER AGE News 14 OF Kids RULERS ENGAGEMENT Presented by NAB Show m Waymo and GM Cruise are front-runners in the self-driving car race, in terms of autonomous miles driven and miles per disengagement* in California in b . Apple came in third place in terms of miles driven, but reported much lower miles per disengagement due Condé Nast Bonnier Meredith Gannett Spanish Spanish Online Only Spanish m to the way it reports disengagements. Revenue from domestic cable networks in Corporation Language Language ¦Music Language Sports Movies Videos§ TV m Percent of total revenue from cable networks in SOURCE: PLUTO.COM AND PLUTO APP; VIP ANALYSIS JANUARY Waymo b m m Valence Sports Time Oct Nov Dec Jan Media Illustrated Magazine Total Awareness Ever Used Never Used Total Watching Watching Both m SOURCE: VIP ANALYSIS JANUARY SOURCE: STIRR.COM m b £ m GM Cruise m Miles Driven Autonomous
b m Apple m Zoox Miles per Disengagement* Hulu Amazon Roku Apple TV E E E E E Prime Channels Total k k k k k k Video Channels SOURCE: EDISON RESEARCH AND TRITON DIGITAL, VARIETY INTELLIGENCE PLATFORM ESTIMATES, ; NOTE: FIGURES FOR U.S. CONSUMERS OVER AGE b SOURCE: CA DMV, ; NOTE: *MILES PER DISENGAGEMENT IS Comcast AMC Networks AT&T Discovery Disney Fox ViacomCBS - - - Free OTT Free OTA DEFINED BY THE CA DMV AS ANY EVENT WHERE THE AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE TEST DRIVER MUST DISENGAGE AUTONOMOUS MODE IN THE INTEREST OF SAFETY OR DUE TO A FAILURE OF THE VEHICLE'S SOURCE: HUB RESEARCH OCTOBER SOURCE: HUB RESEARCH OCTOBER AUTONOMOUS TECHNOLOGY. MILES DRIVEN AND MILES PER DISENGAGEMENT ARE IMPERFECT METRICS TO COMPARE ACROSS COMPANIES BECAUSE NOT EVERYONE REPORTS DISENGAGEMENTS IN THE SAME WAY AND THE QUALITY OF AUTONOMOUS MILES DRIVEN IS Xumo Networks Without Xumo Networks With £ JUST AS, IF NOT MORE, IMPORTANT THAN QUANTITY OF MILES DRIVEN YouTube Channel YouTube Channel TESTDRIVING IN SAY, SAN FRANCISCO IS MORE MEANINGFUL THAN TEST DRIVING IN A LESS COMPLEX CITY ENVIRONMENT LIKE PALO SOURCE: VIP ANALYSIS ALTO. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE SECRETIVE NATURE OF COMPANIES TESTDRIVING AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES, THESE TYPES OF METRICS Oct Nov Dec Jan ARE THE BEST WE'VE GOT TO GET A GENERAL SENSE OF HOW COMPANIES ARE PROGRESSING IN THE SELFDRIVING CAR RACE. ALL SOURCE: ROKU.COM; VIP ANALYSIS FIGURES ARE FOR AS REPORTED BY COMPANIES TO THE CA DMV. TESLA IS NOT LISTED ON THIS CHART BECAUSE IT DID NOT TEST ANY VEHICLES ON PUBLIC ROADS IN CA IN AUTONOMOUS MODE.
- - - -
E E E E TV STATIONS RULER: NEXSTAR
Five companies accounted for 96% of local station acquisition activity between 2015 and 2019
Cost of Acquisitions NEXSTAR SINCLAIR TEGNA FOX VIACOMCBS COMCAST GRAY
NUMBER OF STATIONS
197 191 49 17 29 11 109 $8.83b Nexstar has cemented % US COVERAGE (BY DMA) its position as the leading and largest network of 63% 39% 39% 38% 38% 37% 24% stations thanks to an acquisitions tab more than TOTAL REVENUE (2019) double its rivals, pulling in the most broadcast $4.23b revenue for 2019. $3.0b $4.2b $2.3b $11.4b $15.3b $103.7b $2.1b
BROADCAST REVENUE
$3.0b $2.7b $2.3b $2.4b $2.2b $2.1b $2.0b
BROADCAST REVENUE FROM ADVERTISING $3.48b
Terrier $1.4b $1.3b $1.3b $1.6b $1.5b $1.4b $1.2b Media Buyer
BROADCAST REVENUE FROM RETRANS FEES
$1.4b $1.3b $0.8b $0.8b $0.7b $0.7b $0.8b $1.46b % BROADCAST REVENUE CONTRIBUTES TO TOTAL REVENUE
100% 63% 100% 21% 14% 2% 96%
% RETRANS/DISTRIBUTION CONTRIBUTES TO TOTAL REVENUE
45% 32% 37% 7% 5% 1% 38% $1.16b
SOURCE: COMPANY REPORTS, BIA ADVISORY SOURCES (FOX, VIACOMCBS & NBCU, AND US COVERAGE #S); COMPANY WEBSITES
15 RULERS OF ENGAGEMENT Presented by NAB Show PAY TV RULER: COMCAST
AT&T accounted for the bulk of cord cutting in 2019 U.S. Multichannel Subscribers
Q4 2019 Video Subscribers 19.9m 18.8m 15.6m 9.0m 4.1m 3.1m Decline from Q4 2019 -388k -717k -70k -382k -84k -41k 2010-2014 subs lost: 300k
YoY % Change
2015-2019 subs lost: 14.1m
The broadband business ARPU for cable has kept Comcast in a systems is increasing healthier position than even as total others even as cord- subscribers decline 2016 2017 2018 2019 cutting accelerates. AT&T (includes VMVPD) $1,428 $1,433 $1,362 $1,574 Altice USA $789 $1,255 $1,257 $1,258
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Charter $976 $1,013 $1,077 $1,127 98.0m 99.3m 101.1m 101.2m 101.5m 101.6m 101.3m 100.9 99.6 97.6 93.9m 90.0m 85.5m Comcast $1,033 $1,074 $1,071 $1,098 2.0% 1.3% 1.8% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% -0.3% -0.4% -1.3% -2.0% -3.8% -4.2% -5.0% Dish (includes Sling TV) $1,100 $1,077 $1,105 $1,069
SOURCE: S&P KAGAN; COMPANY FILINGS (Q4)
16 RULERS OF ENGAGEMENT Presented by NAB Show Press Command Shift x to retain text size afer resizing graph
U.S. consumers who listen to podcasts monthly m m m m m m m m m m of population £
North America Global Connected Device TV ª ª Legend Xyxyxyxyxy Legend Xyxyxyxyxy HH:MM ª chg. ª £ Oct Nov Dec Jan ª ª ª SOURCE: PLUTO.COM AND PLUTO APP; VIP ANALYSIS - b b b b b b b - - ª - - SOURCE: DIGITAL TV RESEARCH Q¢ Q¢ Q¢ Q¢
SOURCE: XYXYXYXYXYX XYXYXYXYXYXYX SOURCE: XYXYXYXYXYX XYXYXYXYXYXYX SOURCE: NIELSEN TOTAL AUDIENCE REPORT SOURCE: XYXYXYXYXYX XYXYXYXYXYXYX NOTE: TV IS A NET OF THE CATEGORIES "LIVE TV" AND "DVR¦TIMESHIFTED TV". CONNECTED DEVICE IS A NET OF THE CATEGORIES "INTERNET CONNECTED DEVICE" AND "VIDEOFOCUSED APP¦WEB". NOTE THAT "INTERNET CONNECTED DEVICE" WAS TRACKED AS "MULTIMEDIA DEVICE" IN £ AND "VIDEOFOCUSED APP¦WEB" WAS TRACKED AS "VIDEO ON SMARTPHONE" IN £. min. Bu«ering has consistently Play Duration/Engagement min. improved, with £ less YoY AVOD min. Q¢
min. - min. Number of weekly Feb £ podcasts listened to in the min. past week among weekly U.S. min. m m m m m m podcasts listeners age and older - - - - - - - - - - - SOURCE: FIERCEVIDEO PLUTO TV; USA TODAY XUMO Rebuering Ratio TV SOURCE: CONVIVA Q SVOD SOURCE: XYXYXYXYXYX XYXYXYXYXYXYX SOURCE: SAMSUNG ADS - £
m m SOURCE: EDISON RESEARCH AND TRITON DIGITAL Total Views for YouTube Channels With FAST Network Percentage of U.S. population who listen to podcasts monthly m m m m-m m- m Percentage of U.S. population m-m Game Revenues at Top Public Companies in Video Game Space, Q- Pluto TV Xumo STIRR reached weekly, Sector Specialty: Mobile PC Console m-m by media type m m m- m Tencent m-m Streaming Satellite radio Sony SOURCE: audio on Apple m-b COMPANY tablet WEBSITES & APPS; Microsoft b-b VIP ANALYSIS m m Samsung Roku JANUARY Google b TV Plus Podcasts NetEase Streaming Activision Blizzard SOURCE: YOUTUBE; VIP ANALYSIS JANUARY audio on EA m m smartphone AM/FM radio Nintendo Total Awareness Ever Used Never Used Pluto TV Viacom CBS Bandai Namco SOURCE: PLUTO.COM AND PLUTO APP; VIP ANALYSIS JANUARY Take-Two Interactive m m Nexon ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' Ubisoft
SOURCE: EDISON RESEARCH AND TRITON DIGITAL Netmarble NOTE: FIGURES ARE FOR CONSUMERS OVER AGE SOURCE: EDISON RESEARCH SOURCE: EDISON RESEARCH SOURCE: NIELSEN, EDISON RESEARCH, TRITON DIGITAL, ; Warner Bros Interactive NOTE: ALL FIGURES EXCEPT FOR PODCASTS ARE FOR U.S. CONSUMERS OVER AGE IN Q ; PODCAST FIGURES ARE FOR CONSUMERS OVER AGE AS OF . b b b b b b
b m Revenue from subscriptions and micro-transactions are expected to increase as major sources of industry growth Total Awareness Ever Used Never Used - - - m Monthly U.S. podcast listeners Revenue from domestic cable networks in SOURCE: HUB RESEARCH OCTOBER b b U.S. consumers familiar with podcasting of total revenue from cable networks in | m m Physical Gaming Software b m b Gaming Subscriptions
m vs. m b b In-Game Purchases m Music m Video/ b b - - - Audio m TV SOURCE: CORD CUTTERS NEWS AND ; FIERCEVIDEO ; COMPANY STATEMENT SOURCE: HUB RESEARCH OCTOBER Digital Gaming Software b ° b ° b °b °b ° b °b ° b Sports b Comcast AMC Nets AT&T Discovery Disney Fox ViacomCBS n/a E E E E E m Oct Nov Dec Jan Movie RULER: AMAZON SOURCE: EDISON RESEARCH AND TRITON DIGITAL, ; NOTE: FIGURES ARE FOR U.S. CONSUMERS OVER AGE SOURCE: SAMSUNG TV PLUS APP SVOD AGGREGATORS News Kids m Waymo and GM Cruise are front-runners in the self-driving car race, in terms of autonomous miles driven and miles per disengagement* in California in b . Apple came in third place in terms of miles driven, Number of SVODs offered but reported much lower miles per disengagement due No challenger has managed Condé Nast Bonnier Meredith Gannett Spanish Spanish Online Only Spanish Corporation m to the way it reports disengagements. Revenue from domestic cable networks in to match the way Amazon has Language Language ¦Music Language emerged as an alternative to Sports Movies Videos§ TV m Percent of total revenue from cable networks in pay-TV providers in enabling SOURCE: PLUTO.COM AND PLUTO APP; VIP ANALYSIS JANUARY Waymo b consumers to make subscription add-ons from a wide range of m m streaming options. Valence Sports Time Oct Nov Dec Jan Media Illustrated Magazine Total Awareness Ever Used Never Used Total Watching Watching Both m SOURCE: VIP ANALYSIS JANUARY SOURCE: STIRR.COM m b Number of U.S. Subscriptions to £ SVODs on Prime Video Channels m GM Cruise m Miles Driven Autonomous
b m Apple m Zoox Miles per Disengagement* Hulu Amazon Roku Apple TV E E E E E Prime Channels Total k k k k k k Video Channels SOURCE: EDISON RESEARCH AND TRITON DIGITAL, VARIETY INTELLIGENCE PLATFORM ESTIMATES, ; NOTE: FIGURES FOR U.S. CONSUMERS OVER AGE b SOURCE: CA DMV, ; NOTE: *MILES PER DISENGAGEMENT IS Comcast AMC Networks AT&T Discovery Disney Fox ViacomCBS - - - Free OTT Free OTA DEFINED BY THE CA DMV AS ANY EVENT WHERE THE AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE TEST DRIVER MUST DISENGAGE AUTONOMOUS MODE IN THE INTEREST OF SAFETY OR DUE TO A FAILURE OF THE VEHICLE'S Respondents’ level of interest in SOURCE: HUB RESEARCH OCTOBER SOURCE: HUB RESEARCH OCTOBER AUTONOMOUS TECHNOLOGY. MILES DRIVEN AND MILES PER aggregating all paid subscriptions DISENGAGEMENT ARE IMPERFECT METRICS TO COMPARE ACROSS COMPANIES BECAUSE NOT EVERYONE REPORTS DISENGAGEMENTS IN into a single interface THE SAME WAY AND THE QUALITY OF AUTONOMOUS MILES DRIVEN IS Xumo Networks Without Xumo Networks With £ JUST AS, IF NOT MORE, IMPORTANT THAN QUANTITY OF MILES DRIVEN Not at all interested Very interested YouTube Channel YouTube Channel TESTDRIVING IN SAY, SAN FRANCISCO IS MORE MEANINGFUL THAN TEST DRIVING IN A LESS COMPLEX CITY ENVIRONMENT LIKE PALO SOURCE: VIP ANALYSIS ALTO. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE SECRETIVE NATURE OF COMPANIES TESTDRIVING AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES, THESE TYPES OF METRICS 19% Oct Nov Dec Jan ARE THE BEST WE'VE GOT TO GET A GENERAL SENSE OF HOW COMPANIES ARE PROGRESSING IN THE SELFDRIVING CAR RACE. ALL SOURCE: ROKU.COM; VIP ANALYSIS FIGURES ARE FOR AS REPORTED BY COMPANIES TO THE CA DMV. TESLA IS NOT LISTED ON THIS CHART BECAUSE IT DID NOT TEST ANY 17% VEHICLES ON PUBLIC ROADS IN CA IN AUTONOMOUS MODE.
34%
10% 22.8m 27.2m 31.0m 33.7m 36.1m 38.2m 40.1m 41.7m 43.2m 44.6m - - - - 21% 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E SOURCE: BMO CAPITAL MARKETS, MAR 2020 (PRIME CHANNEL SUBSCRIPTIONS); TECHCRUNCH, THE INFORMATION, ROKU, MACWORLD, VARIETY (SVODS OFFERED); MAGID, MAY 2019 (DEMAND); NOTE: HULU SVODS OFFERED E E E E FIGURE REPRESENTS PREMIUM NETWORK ADD-ONS, NOT COUNTING LIVE TV NETWORK ADD-ONS. PRIME VIDEO FIGURE IS APPROXIMATE AS OF JAN 2019. ROKU FIGURE IS AS LISTED ON THE ROKU CHANNEL AS OF JANUARY 2020.
17 RULERS OF ENGAGEMENT Presented by NAB Show VIRTUAL MVPDs RULER: DISNEY
In Hulu With Live TV, Disney has acquired the controlling share of the market leader in a dwindling category bogged down by bloated pricing. HULU WITH LIVE TV SLING TV YOUTUBE TV AT&T TV NOW AT&T WATCH TV FUBO TV PHILO
OWNER Disney / Dish TV Google AT&T AT&T FaceBank Investors include Comcast* A&E Networks, AMC Networks, Discovery and ViacomCBS
SUBSCRIBERS
The mean cost for a VMVPD package increased by $14.08 (32%) in 2019 3.3m 2.3m 2m 788k 500k 316k 50k $60 (Q1 2020) (Q1 2020) (Q4 2019) (Q1 2020) (Q4 2018) (Q4 2019) (Q4 2017E)
PRICE(S) AT LAUNCH
$50 $40 $20-$40 $35 $35-$70 $15 $45 $16-$20
$40 PRICE(S) CURRENTLY
$55 $30-$45 $50 $65-$80 $15 $55 $20 $30
# OF NETWORKS
$20 69+ 32-53 80+ 45-60+ 35+ 100+ 59
LAUNCH DATE $10
May 2017 February 2015 February 2017 November 2016 June 2018 April 2017 November 2017
$0
’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 SOURCE: COMPANY WEBSITES *COMCAST OWNS 33%
18 RULERS OF ENGAGEMENT Presented by NAB Show CONNECTED TV RULER: ROKU
Roku managed to 1% stay on top of the market for devices Other and apps that deliver 9% streaming content to TV sets despite the 6% presence of many much bigger players. 4% Other Share of Viewing 10% Hours by 10% Connected TV (Q4 2019) 43% PC 9% Share of Viewing 11% Hours by Device 18% Roku has a commanding Connected TV lead despite much bigger 55% competition.
(Q4 2019) Mobile 24% Everyone Roku’s CTV else Ad Share 13% (Q4 2018) 87%
SOURCE: BEACHFRONT RESEARCH, CONVIVA
19 RULERS OF ENGAGEMENT Presented by NAB Show Press Command Shift x to retain text size afer resizing graph
U.S. consumers who listen to podcasts monthly m m m m m m m m m m of population £
North America Global Connected Device TV ª ª Legend Xyxyxyxyxy Legend Xyxyxyxyxy HH:MM ª chg. ª £ Oct Nov Dec Jan ª ª ª SOURCE: PLUTO.COM AND PLUTO APP; VIP ANALYSIS - b b b b b b b - - ª - - SOURCE: DIGITAL TV RESEARCH Q¢ Q¢ Q¢ Q¢
SOURCE: XYXYXYXYXYX XYXYXYXYXYXYX SOURCE: XYXYXYXYXYX XYXYXYXYXYXYX SOURCE: NIELSEN TOTAL AUDIENCE REPORT SOURCE: XYXYXYXYXYX XYXYXYXYXYXYX NOTE: TV IS A NET OF THE CATEGORIES "LIVE TV" AND "DVR¦TIMESHIFTED TV". CONNECTED DEVICE IS A NET OF THE CATEGORIES "INTERNET CONNECTED DEVICE" AND "VIDEOFOCUSED APP¦WEB". NOTE THAT "INTERNET CONNECTED DEVICE" WAS TRACKED AS "MULTIMEDIA DEVICE" IN £ AND "VIDEOFOCUSED APP¦WEB" WAS TRACKED AS "VIDEO ON SMARTPHONE" IN £. min. Bu«ering has consistently Play Duration/Engagement min. improved, with £ less YoY AVOD min. Q¢
min. - min. Number of weekly Feb £ podcasts listened to in the min. past week among weekly U.S. min. m m m m m m podcasts listeners age and older - - - - - - - - - - - SOURCE: FIERCEVIDEO PLUTO TV; USA TODAY XUMO Rebuering Ratio TV SOURCE: CONVIVA Q SVOD SOURCE: XYXYXYXYXYX XYXYXYXYXYXYX SOURCE: SAMSUNG ADS - £
m m SOURCE: EDISON RESEARCH AND TRITON DIGITAL Total Views for YouTube Channels With FAST Network Percentage of U.S. population who listen to podcasts monthly RULER: TENCENT m GAME PUBLISHERS m m m-m m- m Percentage of U.S. population m-m Game Revenues at Top Public Companies in Video Game Space, Q- Pluto TV Xumo STIRR reached weekly, Sector Specialty: Mobile PC Console m-m by media type m m m- m Tencent m-m Streaming Satellite radio Sony 21% audio on SOURCE: Apple BOXED/ 2% 37% m-b COMPANY tablet DOWNLOADS BROWSER SMARTPHONES WEBSITES & APPS; Microsoft b-b VIP ANALYSIS $31.8b +5.2% $3.5b -15.4% $54.7b +11.4% m m Samsung Roku JANUARY Google YoY YoY YoY b TV Plus Podcasts NetEase Chinese conglomerate Tencent is sweeping Streaming Activision Blizzard SOURCE: YOUTUBE; VIP ANALYSIS JANUARY audio on through the video games EA space due to smart m m smartphone AM/FM radio Nintendo investments and a specialty Total Awareness Ever Used Never Used Pluto TV Viacom CBS in mobile publishing. Bandai Namco SOURCE: PLUTO.COM AND PLUTO APP; VIP ANALYSIS JANUARY Take-Two Interactive m m Nexon ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' Ubisoft
SOURCE: EDISON RESEARCH AND TRITON DIGITAL Netmarble NOTE: FIGURES ARE FOR CONSUMERS OVER AGE PC SOURCE: EDISON RESEARCH SOURCE: EDISON RESEARCH SOURCE: NIELSEN, EDISON RESEARCH, TRITON DIGITAL, ; Warner Bros Interactive Mobile revenues NOTE: ALL FIGURES EXCEPT FOR PODCASTS ARE FOR U.S. account for nearly CONSUMERS OVER AGE IN Q ; PODCAST FIGURES ARE FOR CONSUMERS OVER AGE AS OF . b b b b b b half of the entire video gaming market. b 2019 Global Games Mobile m Market by Segment Revenue from subscriptions and micro-transactions are expected to increase as major sources of industry growth Total Awareness Ever Used Never Used - - - m Monthly U.S. podcast listeners Revenue from domestic cable networks in SOURCE: HUB RESEARCH OCTOBER b b U.S. consumers familiar with podcasting of total revenue from cable networks in | m Console m Physical Gaming Software b m b Gaming Subscriptions
m vs. m b b In-Game Purchases m 30% 9% Music CONSOLES TABLETS m Video/ b b $45.3b +7.3% $13.4b +3.3% - - - Audio m YoY YoY TV SOURCE: CORD CUTTERS NEWS AND ; FIERCEVIDEO ; COMPANY STATEMENT SOURCE: HUB RESEARCH OCTOBER Digital Gaming Software ° b ° b °b °b ° b °b ° b SOURCE: NEWZOO, COMPANY REPORTS (REVENUE); NEWZOO (MARKET SHARE); CTA b (INCREASE); NOTE: DATA IS COMBINATION OF ISOLATED AND ESTIMATED REVENUES BASED Sports b Comcast AMC Nets AT&T Discovery Disney Fox ViacomCBS OFF OF QUARTERLY/ANNUAL FINANCIAL REPORTS. REVENUE DERIVED ENTIRELY FROM n/a E E E E E HARDWARE SALES HAS BEEN EXCLUDED FOR RELEVANT COMPANIES, WHEN POSSIBLE m Oct Nov Dec Jan Movie SOURCE: SAMSUNG TV PLUS APP SOURCE: EDISON RESEARCH AND TRITON DIGITAL, ; NOTE: FIGURES ARE FOR U.S. CONSUMERS OVER AGE News Kids 20 RULERS OF ENGAGEMENT Presented by NAB Show m Waymo and GM Cruise are front-runners in the self-driving car race, in terms of autonomous miles driven and miles per disengagement* in California in b . Apple came in third place in terms of miles driven, but reported much lower miles per disengagement due Condé Nast Bonnier Meredith Gannett Spanish Spanish Online Only Spanish m to the way it reports disengagements. Revenue from domestic cable networks in Corporation Language Language ¦Music Language Sports Movies Videos§ TV m Percent of total revenue from cable networks in SOURCE: PLUTO.COM AND PLUTO APP; VIP ANALYSIS JANUARY Waymo b m m Valence Sports Time Oct Nov Dec Jan Media Illustrated Magazine Total Awareness Ever Used Never Used Total Watching Watching Both m SOURCE: VIP ANALYSIS JANUARY SOURCE: STIRR.COM m b £ m GM Cruise m Miles Driven Autonomous
b m Apple m Zoox Miles per Disengagement* Hulu Amazon Roku Apple TV E E E E E Prime Channels Total k k k k k k Video Channels SOURCE: EDISON RESEARCH AND TRITON DIGITAL, VARIETY INTELLIGENCE PLATFORM ESTIMATES, ; NOTE: FIGURES FOR U.S. CONSUMERS OVER AGE b SOURCE: CA DMV, ; NOTE: *MILES PER DISENGAGEMENT IS Comcast AMC Networks AT&T Discovery Disney Fox ViacomCBS - - - Free OTT Free OTA DEFINED BY THE CA DMV AS ANY EVENT WHERE THE AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE TEST DRIVER MUST DISENGAGE AUTONOMOUS MODE IN THE INTEREST OF SAFETY OR DUE TO A FAILURE OF THE VEHICLE'S SOURCE: HUB RESEARCH OCTOBER SOURCE: HUB RESEARCH OCTOBER AUTONOMOUS TECHNOLOGY. MILES DRIVEN AND MILES PER DISENGAGEMENT ARE IMPERFECT METRICS TO COMPARE ACROSS COMPANIES BECAUSE NOT EVERYONE REPORTS DISENGAGEMENTS IN THE SAME WAY AND THE QUALITY OF AUTONOMOUS MILES DRIVEN IS Xumo Networks Without Xumo Networks With £ JUST AS, IF NOT MORE, IMPORTANT THAN QUANTITY OF MILES DRIVEN YouTube Channel YouTube Channel TESTDRIVING IN SAY, SAN FRANCISCO IS MORE MEANINGFUL THAN TEST DRIVING IN A LESS COMPLEX CITY ENVIRONMENT LIKE PALO SOURCE: VIP ANALYSIS ALTO. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE SECRETIVE NATURE OF COMPANIES TESTDRIVING AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES, THESE TYPES OF METRICS Oct Nov Dec Jan ARE THE BEST WE'VE GOT TO GET A GENERAL SENSE OF HOW COMPANIES ARE PROGRESSING IN THE SELFDRIVING CAR RACE. ALL SOURCE: ROKU.COM; VIP ANALYSIS FIGURES ARE FOR AS REPORTED BY COMPANIES TO THE CA DMV. TESLA IS NOT LISTED ON THIS CHART BECAUSE IT DID NOT TEST ANY VEHICLES ON PUBLIC ROADS IN CA IN AUTONOMOUS MODE.
- - - -
E E E E LIVESTREAMING RULER: AMAZON
3.0b 6m Total Hours Watched Unique Channels 2.5b 5m
2.0b 4m
Amazon’s Twitch is still the 1.5b 3m undeniable livestreaming victor, but its viewing 1.0b 2m numbers aren’t enough YouTube Gaming to prevent the biggest streamers from getting 0.5b 1m lured over to rivals. Mixer 0 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2018 2019 2018 2019
Twitch Migration: Notable Streamers Ninja shroud King Gothalion CouRage Disguised Toast FaZe Ewok Corinna Kopf Valkyrae
Facebook Facebook Moved to: Mixer Mixer Mixer YouTube Gaming Mixer YouTube Gaming Gaming Gaming
Date Moved August 2019 October 2019 October 2019 November 2019 November 2019 November 2019 December 2019 January 2020
Twitch Followers 14,688,717 7,034,875 1,004,347 2,107,684 1,312,340 284,733 414,865 944,561
Current Followers 2,851,771 980,007 145,879 2,000,000 216,000 128,769 244,000 849,000
PUBG, Fortnite, Hearthstone, Notable Games Fortnite Overwatch Fortnite Fortnite Various Apex Legends Call of Duty Teamfight Tactics
NEWZOO, STREAMLABS (HOURS, CHANNELS), POLYGON, KOTAKU, CNN MONEY, STREAMER ACCOUNT PAGES (MIGRATION)
21 RULERS OF ENGAGEMENT Presented by NAB Show GAME CONSOLES RULER: SONY
While Sony is currently winning the war for market The Next Generation of Consoles share here, Microsoft will MICROSOFT’S XBOX SERIES X SONY’S PLAYSTATION 5 be ready to challenge its arch rival once again BACKWARDS Entire back catalog confirmed PS4 confirmed, back catalog rumored COMPATIBILITY this holiday season when they both launch ninth- Solid-state storage, xCloud expected to Segmented game installation, haptic NEW FEATURES generation consoles. launch alongside/shortly after Series X controllers, solid-state storage
14 (9 within past three years) 1ST PARTY DEV STUDIOS 14 (1 within past three years)
Unit Sales by Console Sony Microsoft Nintendo Current Generation
Global Platform Market Share Consoles Mobile PC CONSOLE TYPE RELEASE UNIT SALES PlayStation 2 Home 2000 157.68m
Nintendo DS Handheld 2004 154.02m $70.6b $76.5b $84.8b $93.1b $106.5b $121.7b $138.7b $152.1b $164.6b $178.2b $196.0b Global revenue 100% Game Boy (Standard + Color) Handheld 1989 / 1998 118.69m PlayStation 4 Home 2013 107.31m PlayStation Home 1994 102.50m 80% Wii Home 2006 101.63m PlayStation 3 Home 2006 87.41m Xbox 360 Home 2005 85.80m 60% Game Boy Advance Handheld 2001 81.51m PSP Handheld 2004 81.09m Nintendo 3DS Handheld 2011 75.71m 40% NES Home 1983 61.91m Nintendo Switch Hybrid 2017 52.48m SNES Home 1990 49.10m Xbox One Home 2013 46.65m 20% Nintendo 64 Home 1996 32.93m GameCube Home 2001 21.74m PS Vita Handheld 2011 16.21m 0% ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19E ’20E ’21E ’22E Xbox Home 2001 15.77m Wii U Home 2012 13.56m SOURCE: VGCHARTZ, COMPANY REPORTS, NINTENDO (UNIT SALES); CNET, GAMASUTRA (PS5 VS. XBOX); NEWZOO (MARKET SHARE)
22 RULERS OF ENGAGEMENT Presented by NAB Show Press Command Shift x to retain text size afer resizing graph
U.S. consumers who listen to podcasts monthly m m m m m m m m m m of population £
North America Global Connected Device TV ª ª Legend Xyxyxyxyxy Legend Xyxyxyxyxy HH:MM ª chg. ª £ Oct Nov Dec Jan ª ª ª SOURCE: PLUTO.COM AND PLUTO APP; VIP ANALYSIS - b b b b b b b - - ª - - SOURCE: DIGITAL TV RESEARCH Q¢ Q¢ Q¢ Q¢
SOURCE: XYXYXYXYXYX XYXYXYXYXYXYX SOURCE: XYXYXYXYXYX XYXYXYXYXYXYX SOURCE: NIELSEN TOTAL AUDIENCE REPORT SOURCE: XYXYXYXYXYX XYXYXYXYXYXYX NOTE: TV IS A NET OF THE CATEGORIES "LIVE TV" AND "DVR¦TIMESHIFTED TV". CONNECTED DEVICE IS A NET OF THE CATEGORIES "INTERNET CONNECTED DEVICE" AND "VIDEOFOCUSED APP¦WEB". NOTE THAT "INTERNET CONNECTED DEVICE" WAS TRACKED AS "MULTIMEDIA DEVICE" IN £ AND "VIDEOFOCUSED APP¦WEB" WAS TRACKED AS "VIDEO ON SMARTPHONE" IN £. min. Bu«ering has consistently Play Duration/Engagement min. improved, with £ less YoY AVOD min. Q¢
min. - min. Number of weekly Feb £ podcasts listened to in the min. past week among weekly U.S. min. m m m m m m podcasts listeners age and older - - - - - - - - - - - SOURCE: FIERCEVIDEO PLUTO TV; USA TODAY XUMO Rebuering Ratio TV SOURCE: CONVIVA Q SVOD SOURCE: XYXYXYXYXYX XYXYXYXYXYXYX SOURCE: SAMSUNG ADS - £
m m SOURCE: EDISON RESEARCH AND TRITON DIGITAL Total Views for YouTube Channels With FAST Network Percentage of U.S. population who listen to podcasts monthly m m m m-m m- m Percentage of U.S. population m-m Game Revenues at Top Public Companies in Video Game Space, Q- Pluto TV Xumo STIRR reached weekly, Sector Specialty: Mobile PC Console m-m by media type m m m- m Tencent m-m Streaming Satellite radio Sony SOURCE: audio on Apple m-b COMPANY tablet WEBSITES & APPS; Microsoft b-b VIP ANALYSIS m m Samsung Roku JANUARY Google b TV Plus Podcasts NetEase Streaming Activision Blizzard SOURCE: YOUTUBE; VIP ANALYSIS JANUARY audio on EA m m smartphone AM/FM radio Nintendo Total Awareness Ever Used Never Used Pluto TV Viacom CBS Bandai Namco SOURCE: PLUTO.COM AND PLUTO APP; VIP ANALYSIS JANUARY Take-Two Interactive m m Nexon ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' Ubisoft
SOURCE: EDISON RESEARCH AND TRITON DIGITAL Netmarble NOTE: FIGURES ARE FOR CONSUMERS OVER AGE SOURCE: EDISON RESEARCH SOURCE: EDISON RESEARCH SOURCE: NIELSEN, EDISON RESEARCH, TRITON DIGITAL, ; Warner Bros Interactive NOTE: ALL FIGURES EXCEPT FOR PODCASTS ARE FOR U.S. CONSUMERS OVER AGE IN Q ; PODCAST FIGURES ARE FOR CONSUMERS OVER AGE AS OF . b b b b b b
b m Revenue from subscriptions and micro-transactions are expected to increase as major sources of industry growth Total Awareness Ever Used Never Used - - - m Monthly U.S. podcast listeners Revenue from domestic cable networks in SOURCE: HUB RESEARCH OCTOBER b b U.S. consumers familiar with podcasting of total revenue from cable networks in | m m Physical Gaming Software b m b Gaming Subscriptions
m vs. m b b In-Game Purchases m Music m Video/ b b - - - Audio m TV SOURCE: CORD CUTTERS NEWS AND ; FIERCEVIDEO ; COMPANY STATEMENT SOURCE: HUB RESEARCH OCTOBER Digital Gaming Software b ° b ° b °b °b ° b °b ° b Sports b Comcast AMC Nets AT&T Discovery Disney Fox ViacomCBS n/a E E E E E m Oct Nov Dec Jan Movie SOURCE: SAMSUNG TV PLUS APP SOURCE: EDISON RESEARCH AND TRITON DIGITAL, ; NOTE: FIGURES ARE FOR U.S. CONSUMERS OVER AGE News Kids m Waymo and GM Cruise are front-runners in the self-driving car race, in terms of autonomous miles driven and miles per disengagement* in California in b . Apple came in third place in terms of miles driven, but reported much lower miles per disengagement due Condé Nast Bonnier Meredith Gannett Spanish Spanish Online Only Spanish m to the way it reports disengagements. Revenue from domestic cable networks in Corporation Language Language ¦Music Language Sports Movies Videos§ TV m Percent of total revenue from cable networks in SOURCE: PLUTO.COM AND PLUTO APP; VIP ANALYSIS JANUARY Waymo b m m Valence Sports Time Oct Nov Dec Jan Media Illustrated Magazine Total Awareness Ever Used Never Used Total Watching Watching Both m SOURCE: VIP ANALYSIS JANUARY SOURCE: STIRR.COM m b £ m GM Cruise m Miles Driven Autonomous
b m Apple m Zoox Miles per Disengagement* Hulu Amazon Roku Apple TV E E E E E Prime Channels Total RULER: SONY CLOUD GAMING Video k k k k k k Channels SOURCE: EDISON RESEARCH AND TRITON DIGITAL, VARIETY INTELLIGENCE PLATFORM ESTIMATES, ; NOTE: FIGURES FOR U.S. CONSUMERS OVER AGE b SOURCE: CA DMV, ; NOTE: *MILES PER DISENGAGEMENT IS Comcast AMC Networks AT&T Discovery Disney Fox ViacomCBS - - - Free OTT Free OTA DEFINED BY THE CA DMV AS ANY EVENT WHERE THE AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE TEST DRIVER MUST DISENGAGE AUTONOMOUS MODE IN THE INTEREST OF SAFETY OR DUE TO A FAILURE OF THE VEHICLE'S SOURCE: HUB RESEARCH OCTOBER SOURCE: HUB RESEARCH OCTOBER AUTONOMOUS TECHNOLOGY. MILES DRIVEN AND MILES PER DISENGAGEMENT ARE IMPERFECT METRICS TO COMPARE ACROSS COMPANIES BECAUSE NOT EVERYONE REPORTS DISENGAGEMENTS IN Player Preference Survey by Age Buy Physical Buy & Download Digital Rent Trade THE SAME WAY AND THE QUALITY OF AUTONOMOUS MILES DRIVEN IS Xumo Networks Without Xumo Networks With £ Sony’s PlayStation JUST AS, IF NOT MORE, IMPORTANT THAN QUANTITY OF MILES DRIVEN YouTube Channel YouTube Channel TESTDRIVING IN SAY, SAN FRANCISCO IS MORE MEANINGFUL THAN Now is the only TEST DRIVING IN A LESS COMPLEX CITY ENVIRONMENT LIKE PALO SOURCE: VIP ANALYSIS successful example in ALTO. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE SECRETIVE NATURE OF COMPANIES Oct Nov Dec Jan TESTDRIVING AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES, THESE TYPES OF METRICS this nascent category ARE THE BEST WE'VE GOT TO GET A GENERAL SENSE OF HOW COMPANIES ARE PROGRESSING IN THE SELFDRIVING CAR RACE. ALL SOURCE: ROKU.COM; VIP ANALYSIS largely because it’s FIGURES ARE FOR AS REPORTED BY COMPANIES TO THE CA DMV. TESLA IS NOT LISTED ON THIS CHART BECAUSE IT DID NOT TEST ANY available as an add- VEHICLES ON PUBLIC ROADS IN CA IN AUTONOMOUS MODE. on subscription to existing PlayStation customers and is the only cloud service that combines downloads and streaming. - - - -
E E E E EA MICROSOFT GOOGLE APPLE NVIDIA UBISOFT TENCENT SONY
Xbox Game Start & PlayStation Service Access Stadia Arcade GeForce Now Uplay+ Pass WeGame Now $129 base, controllers Free / Premium: Price $4.99/month $9.99/month extra / $9.99/ $4.99/month $14.99/month n/a $9.99/month $5/month month for Pro membership Xbox One, Chrome- Nvidia Shield, Xbox One, PlayStation 4, Platform PlayStation 4, compatible Apple devices Windows, Windows PCs Windows Windows Steam devices macOS, Android 2015 (beta) 2019 (beta, Initial Release 2014 2017 2019 2019 2019 (beta) 2014 2020 (full) China)
Streaming Microsoft, EA, Available • • • • Amazon and Facebook all have upcoming Downloads cloud gaming Available • • • • • ventures SOURCE: COMPANY REPORTS, 85 409 46 100+ 1,500+ 100+ 800+ CNET, POCKETGAMER.BIZ, Available Games (current & n/a GAMESINDUSTRY.BIZ, VG247 upcoming) (MARKET); LIMELIGHT NETWORKS (PLAYER PREFERENCE)
23 RULERS OF ENGAGEMENT Presented by NAB Show VR HEADSETS RULER: FACEBOOK
Overview of VR Headsets in the Market
RELEASE MADE BY (PARENT) SEGMENT COST REQUIRED HARDWARE COMPATIBLE STORES YEAR
Gear VR Oculus (Facebook)/Samsung Mobile $130 Android Phone Oculus Store 2015 Rift Oculus (Facebook) PC $399 PC meeting specifications Oculus Store/Steam 2016 Vive HTC PC $499 PC meeting specifications Steam/Viveport 2016
PlayStationVR PlayStation (Sony) Console $299 PlayStation 4 PlayStation Network 2016
Daydream Google Mobile $99 Android phone Play Store 2016
Vive Pro HTC PC $799 High-end PC or laptop Steam/Viveport 2018
Go Oculus (Facebook) Standalone $199 Smartphone (set-up only) Oculus Store 2018 Quest Oculus (Facebook) Standalone $399 None Oculus Store 2019
Top VR Headset Sales by Units Sold, Q4 ’19
While Sony’s PSVR is the best-selling individual VR headset, Facebook has a suite of products, propelled by the latest version of Oculus Quest, that have a greater collective share of this market.
338k 317k 103k 84k 71k
SOURCE: NEWZOO (OVERVIEW); PSVR (Sony) Oculus Quest (Facebook) Valve Index (Valve) Oculus Go (Facebook) Oculus Rift S (Facebook) SUPERDATA (SALES)
24 RULERS OF ENGAGEMENT Presented by NAB Show SMARTGLASSES RULER: MICROSOFT
Belonging to an emerging arena teeming with AR possibilities, Microsoft’s HoloLens is the current favorite, especially now that Magic Leap’s financial woes are bound to hurt its chances.
Most Promising Smartglasses Models Global Smartglasses Survey of Top Industry Insiders, Q2 ’19 Market Forecast $3.40b $4.05b $4.83b $5.76b $6.87b $8.19b $9.76b 77% 67% 43% 35% 30% 21% 21% 18% 17% 17% 11% 9% 9% 8% 6% 2018 Other 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E nreal light nreal Vuzix M400 Vuzix Rokid Glass Rokid
North Focals 19.21% CAGR Epson Moverio ThirdEye X2 MR ThirdEye Magic Leap One Magic Leap RealWear HMT-1 RealWear Daqri Worksense Microsoft HoloLens Microsoft Kopin Microdisplays Kopin (expected 2022) Apple (expected Google Glass Enterprise Shadow Creator Halomini Creator Shadow
SOURCE: DIGI-CAPITAL/AWE (SURVEY); MARKET RESEARCH REPORTS (MARKET FORECAST)
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27 RULERS OF ENGAGEMENT Presented by NAB Show