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Facebook, Inc RBC Capital Markets, LLC Mark S.F. Mahaney Zachary Schwartzman (Analyst) (Associate) (415) 633-8608 (415) 633-8651 [email protected] [email protected] Dylan Haber (AVP) Shweta Khajuria, CFA (AVP) (415) 633-8527 (415) 633-8631 [email protected] [email protected] July 25, 2018 Sector: Internet Facebook, Inc. Don’t Unfriend FB Now… Outperform NASDAQ: FB; USD 173.00 Our view: FB reported a disappointing Q2, with a Revenue Miss (partly driven by European GDPR pressure), a Soft H2 Revenue Guide (due to Price Target USD 225.00 ↓ 250.00 currency, rising Sponsored Stories usage, privacy regs), and a Negative 2-3 WHAT'S INSIDE Year Margin Guide (due primarily to security and growth investments). We Rating/Risk Change Price Target Change EQUITY RESEARCH see the outlook as overly conservative. We are buyers w/ $225 PT. In-Depth Report Est. Change Key points: Preview News Analysis Weak Q2 Results: Revenue grew 38% Y/Y ex-FX to $13.23B vs. RBC/Street Scenario Analysis* estimates of $13.37/13.33B. Ad Revenue growth ex-FX decelerated from 42% in Q1 to 38% in Q2 – the largest deceleration we’ve seen since Downside Current Price Upside Q4:16. The region with the greatest deceleration was Europe. Operating Scenario Price Target Scenario Income and EPS, however, beat RBC/Street, primarily due to R&D and G&A 130.00 173.00 225.00 300.00 leverage. All in, fundamentals for FB in Q2 weakened, given Rev Growth 25% 30% 73% Deceleration and Op Margin Y/Y declines, and the Outlook – even if *Implied Total Returns conservative – implies more of same. Key Statistics Shares O/S (MM): 2,930.0 Market Cap (MM): 506,890 Dividend: 0.00 Yield: 0.0% Quarter Keys: 1. Users – MAUs up 11% Y/Y to 2.23B, DAUs up 11% Y/Y to Avg. Daily Volume: 17,282,078 1.47B – both modestly below Street estimate. European MAUs declined 1MM Q/Q and DAUs declined 3MM, as the company had forecasted, RBC Estimates due to GDPR. 2. Engagement – DAU/MAU ratio decreased slightly to FY Dec 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 65.8%, down 21 bps Y/Y, with Asia being the only region where it was Revenue 40.7 55.2 71.5 92.8 Prev. 57.2 74.2 92.6 up (up 115bps Y/Y). 3. Rising Monetization – ARPU up 26% Y/Y to $5.97, GAAP Net EPS 5.40 7.09 9.32 11.93 decelerating vs. 31% in Q1. 4. Strong FCF Generation & Share Repos – Prev. 7.81 10.19 12.92 $2.8B in Q2, with over $3B share repos. Margin 66.3% 61.1% 59.7% 57.8% P/E Net 32x 24x 19x 15x Estimates & PT Reduced: ‘19E Rev dropped 4% to $72B & GAAP EPS cut EBITDA 27.0 33.7 42.7 53.6 9% to $9.32. $225 PT ($250 prior) based on 25x ’19E GAAP EPS and 14x Prev. 35.9 47.3 59.7 ’19E Adjusted EBITDA of $43B. Our outlook for 30%+ bottom-line growth Revenue Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 easily supports these multiples. 2017 8.0A 9.3A 10.3A 13.0A 2018 12.0A 13.2A 13.8E 16.2E Why Not Unfriend FB? Because: 1. FB stills owns two of the largest Prev. 13.4E 14.3E 17.6E EBITDA media assets in the world (Facebook & Instagram) & the two largest 2017 4.9A 6.2A 6.9A 9.0A messaging assets in the world (Messenger & WhatsApp); 2. Our checks 2018 7.4A 8.1A 8.4E 9.9E and mgmt commentary suggest no material change in marketer views of Prev. 7.9E 8.9E 11.7E Note: Priced as of 7:56PM EDT in the after-market on July 25th, 2018 the attractiveness of FB platforms; 3. Monetization of core FB & Instagram All values in USD unless otherwise noted. assets still has material upside potential and Messenger & WhatsApp remain unmonetized; 4. FB’s aggressive investments are improving platform security (Job One) and creating future revenue streams (VR/AR); 5. Even under pressure, FB producing impressive growth (30%+ Revenue & 25%+ EBITDA growth in ’18E); & 6. Valuation looks highly attractive – 17X P/E (ex-cash). This likely constitutes One of the Best Entry Points you can get on FB, in our view. Disseminated: Jul 25, 2018 22:22ET; Produced: Jul 25, 2018 22:22ET Priced as of prior trading day's market close, EST (unless otherwise noted). For Required Conflicts Disclosures, see Page 13. Internet Facebook, Inc. Target/Upside/Downside Scenarios Investment summary Exhibit 1: Facebook, Inc. Our Outperform rating is based on several key factors: 125 Weeks 03MAR16 - 25JUL18 1) Very Large, Growing User Base – Facebook has more than 225 UPSIDE 300.00 TARGET 205 225.00 2.5B active users and is still growing this in the teens % Y/Y. 185 175 CURRENT 173.00 The large amount of data collected on these users is a unique 165 155 and valuable asset for ad and content targeting. 145 135 DOWNSIDE 130.00 125 2) Engagement Still High – Although engagement levels are 115 a constant concern, Facebook's measure of DAU/MAU has 105 remained consistently high on an overall company basis. 95 600m 400m 3) One of the Most "Underlevered" Internet Companies – 200m Facebook still has many growth levers left to pull, not least of 2016 2017 2018 M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J Jul 2019 which is video advertising. FB US Rel. S&P 500 COMPOSITE MA 40 weeks Source: Bloomberg and RBC Capital Markets estimates for Upside/Downside/Target 4) Mobile – Facebook has, so far, effectively addressed one of Target price/base case the most significant overhangs from its IPO days, the lack of We value Facebook using a blended average of 25x P/E Mobile monetization. Mobile Ad Revenue is a material part of multiple and 14x EV/EBITDA multiple on our 2019 estimates. the overall Ad Revenue mix (91%). For key context, we are estimating 30% EPS CAGR for FB through 2020, which we believe supports these premium 5) Very High Margins – FB currently drives EBITDA margins multiples. Our $225 price target is also supported by a DCF, in the low-60%s. An outlook for increased opex investment assuming a 10% WACC and a 4% Terminal Growth Rate. Our should drive these down, but we think that increased price target supports our Outperform rating. investment is actually a positive at this point in the company's growth. Upside scenario In our upside scenario of $300, we estimate a higher Revenue Risks to Our Price Target Include: 1) Broad decreasing CAGR as user growth and sustained engagement drive Ad engagement trends as new competitors arise and take market Revenue. Higher Revenue growth drives EBITDA margins share; 2) failure to drive significant adoption from major higher by 2019. We apply higher multiples to these estimates advertising brands; 3) limitations due to regulatory/user to achieve a $300 upside scenario. actions on privacy concerns; and 4) poor user reaction to site redesign/new product initiatives. Downside scenario In our downside scenario of $130, we assume that user growth slows more quickly than expected and that engagement begins to slip in mature geographies. This causes both a deceleration in ad volume growth and pricing pressure as more incremental ads come from lower-monetizing geographies. We apply a lower P/E and EV/EBITDA multiple to reach our $130 downside scenario. July 25, 2018 Mark S.F. Mahaney, (415) 633-8608; [email protected] 2 Internet Facebook, Inc. Facebook Q2:18 EPS Roundup Metric Trends Monthly Active Users – Below Expectations Monthly Active Users (MAU) grew 11% Y/Y – below 13% in Q1 on a flat comp. This number is below the previous nine quarters’ growth of 13-17%, reaching 2.23B, below the Street’s estimate of 2.25B. While overall growth did not meet expectations, double-digit growth for a platform with over 2B users is still relatively impressive… North America Y/Y MAU growth declined 1-pt to 2% Y/Y in Q2 (vs. 3% in Q1:18 and Q4:17); Europe growth declined by 2-pts to 4% Y/Y (from 6% in Q1:18/Q4:17/Q3:17) while ROW growth decreased 1-pt to 11% Y/Y growth (vs. 12% growth in Q1 and 14% in Q4). Asia also decelerated to 18% Y/Y from 22% Y/Y growth in Q1 and 23% Q4:17. Facebook and its properties are now at roughly 2.2B unique users worldwide on a monthly basis (i.e. FB > China…and the U.S.), including well over 1B users worldwide on a daily basis (1.47B as of Q2). Google is the only other global media company with properties with over 1B daily users. And look at how big their market cap is… For the first time, Facebook shared a Family Audience metric that includes core Facebook, Messenger, WhatsApp and Instagram, which have combined unique monthly users of over 2.5B. Given these platforms have respective MAUs of over 2.2B, 1.3B, 1.5B and 1B, it is clear that most users engage with FB across multiple platforms. Though Facebook’s user figures were below expectations, we view these results as only modestly negative given the impact of GDPR (~1M users in Europe) and the plausible headwind from FIFA this quarter. Facebook also commented on their improved ability to identify and remove fake accounts using AI this quarter, likely contributing to the lower number of users.
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