Historical Perspective of Statewide Streamflows During the 2002 and 1977 Droughts in Colorado
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Historical Perspective of Statewide Streamflows During the 2002 and 1977 Droughts in Colorado By Gerhard Kuhn Prepared in cooperation with the Colorado Water Conservation Board Scientific Investigations Report 2005–5174 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Department of the Interior Gale A. Norton, Secretary U.S. Geological Survey P. Patrick Leahy, Acting Director U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2005 For sale by U.S. Geological Survey, Information Services Box 25286, Denver Federal Center Denver, CO 80225 For more information about the USGS and its products: Telephone: 1-888-ASK-USGS World Wide Web: http://www.usgs.gov/ Any use of trade, product, or firm names in this publication is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Although this report is in the public domain, permission must be secured from the individual copyright owners to reproduce any copyrighted materials contained within this report. iii Contents Abstract ...........................................................................................................................................................1 Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................2 Purpose and Scope ..............................................................................................................................3 Acknowledgments ................................................................................................................................4 Methods of Study ...........................................................................................................................................4 Computation of 7-, 30-, 90-, and 180-Day Streamflows .................................................................14 Streamflow Trends Analysis .............................................................................................................15 Frequency Analysis ............................................................................................................................15 Historical Perspective of Statewide Streamflows .................................................................................19 Analysis of 7-, 30-, 90-, and 180-Day Snowmelt Streamflows .....................................................19 Historical Ranking of Snowmelt Streamflows During 2002 and 1977 ................................19 Other Years with Drought-Diminished Snowmelt Streamflows .........................................20 Frequency Analysis of Snowmelt Streamflows ....................................................................26 Analysis of 7-, 30-, 90-, and 180-Day Winter Streamflows ...........................................................26 Historical Ranking of Winter Streamflows During 2002 and 1977 .....................................29 Other Years with Drought-Diminished Winter Streamflows ...............................................29 Frequency Analysis of Winter Streamflows ..........................................................................34 Summary........................................................................................................................................................34 References Cited..........................................................................................................................................38 Appendixes ...................................................................................................................................................41 1. Five lowest historical 7-day snowmelt streamflows during April–September for selected stations in Colorado and the corresponding years in which the streamflows were recorded ..........................................................................................43 2. Five lowest historical 30-day snowmelt streamflows during April–September for selected stations in Colorado and the corresponding years in which the streamflows were recorded ..........................................................................................47 3. Five lowest historical 90-day snowmelt streamflows during April–September for selected stations in Colorado and the corresponding years in which the streamflows were recorded ..........................................................................................51 4. Five lowest historical 180-day snowmelt streamflows during April–September for selected stations in Colorado and the corresponding years in which the streamflows were recorded ..........................................................................................55 5. Estimated 180-day snowmelt streamflow during April–September for selected nonexceedance probabilities and recurrence intervals based on frequency analysis for 1973–2002; recorded 180-day snowmelt streamflows during April–September, 2002 and 1977; and recurrence intervals for those recorded streamflows for selected stations in Colorado ..................................................................................................................................59 6. Five lowest historical 7-day winter streamflows during October–March for selected stations in Colorado and the corresponding years in which the streamflows were recorded ..........................................................................................64 7. Five lowest historical 30-day winter streamflows during October–March for selected stations in Colorado and the corresponding years in which the streamflows were recorded ..........................................................................................68 iv 8. Five lowest historical 90-day winter streamflows during October–March for selected stations in Colorado and the corresponding years in which the streamflows were recorded ..........................................................................................72 9. Five lowest historical 180-day winter streamflows during October–March for selected stations in Colorado and the corresponding years in which the streamflows were recorded ..........................................................................................76 10. Estimated 180-day winter streamflows during October–March for selected nonexceedance probabilities and recurrence intervals based on frequency analysis for 1973–2002; recorded 180-day winter streamflows during October–March, 2002 and 1977; and recurrence intervals for those recorded streamflows for selected stations in Colorado...............................................................................................................................80 Figures 1–3. Graphs showing: 1. Percentage of Colorado in drought, 1890 through October 2005, on basis of 48-month standardized precipitation index ..........................................................2 2. Statewide April 1 snowpack in Colorado during 1968–2002 as a percentage of long-term (1971–2000) average ...................................................................3 3. Selected statistics of daily average streamflows for period of record and recorded daily average streamflows during April–March, 2002–03 and 1977–78, for selected stations in Colorado ...................................................5 4. Map showing major river basins in Colorado and location of streamflow- gaging stations used in analysis of historical 7-, 30-, 90-, and 180-day snowmelt and winter streamflows ..........................................................................................13 5–8. Graphs showing: 5. Number of stations in Colorado that have historical streamflow record, 1885–2002 ..............................................................................................................................14 6. LOWESS curves of annual 7-, 30-, 90-, and 180-day snowmelt streamflows during April–September for selected stations in Colorado ..........................................16 7. LOWESS curves of annual 7-, 30-, 90-, and 180-day winter streamflows during October–March for selected stations in Colorado ............................................17 8. Frequency curve for the 30-day snowmelt streamflow during April–September for station 09361500 Animas River at Durango based on log-Pearson type III frequency analysis for 1973–2002 ........................................................................18 9–12. Maps showing: 9. Ranking of 30-day snowmelt streamflows during April–September 2002, relative to period of record for selected stations in Colorado ....................................21 10. Ranking of 180-day snowmelt streamflows during April–September 2002, relative to period of record for selected stations in Colorado ....................................22 11. Ranking of 30-day snowmelt streamflows during April–September 1977, relative to period of record for selected stations in Colorado ....................................23 12. Ranking of 180-day snowmelt streamflows during April–September 1977, relative to period of record for selected stations in Colorado ....................................24 v 13. Graph showing number of stations in Colorado in three selected station subsets with streamflow record during 1900–2002 and percentage of those stations for which the 180-day snowmelt streamflows during April–September in any given year were ranked among the five lowest historical values ........................................................................................................................25