July 2015

Monthly Forecast

2 Status Update since Overview our June Forecast 4 Burundi New Zealand will hold the Council’s presidency in • humanitarian developments in Syria, by 5 Srebrenica July and is planning an open debate on the peace OCHA’s head, Stephen O’Brien; Anniversary and security challenges facing small island devel- • the political track in Syria, by Special Envoy 6 UN O!ce for West oping states, to be presided over by its Foreign Sta"an de Mistura; and Africa Minister, Murray McCully, with Secretary-Gen- • Iraq by Jan Kubiš, head of the UN Assistance eral Ban Ki-moon, the prime ministers of Samoa Mission for Iraq (UNAMI). 8 Sudan and South Sudan and Jamaica and the finance minister of the Sey- Briefings in consultations are planned on: chelles expected as briefers. There will also be the • chemical weapons in Syria, by High Represen- 9 Lebanon quarterly open debate on Israel/Palestine, with tative for Disarmament A"airs Kim Won-soo; 10 Syria Foreign Minister McCully presiding and a brief- • the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei ing by Special Coordinator Nickolay Mladenov. (UNISFA) by its head, Haile Tilahun 12 Somalia and Eritrea Briefings are expected: Gebremariam; 13 Democratic Republic • on Bosnia and Herzegovina, marking the 20th • the implementation of resolution 2046 on of the Congo anniversary of the genocide at Srebrenica and Sudan/South Sudan issues by Special Envoy 15 Cyprus other locations in the region, by Deputy Sec- Haile Menkerios; retary-General Jan Eliasson and High Com- • the implementation of resolution 1701 regard- 16 Iraq missioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra’ad Al ing Lebanon, by Special Coordinator Sigrid 17 Israel and Palestine Hussein; and Kaag and Assistant Secretary-General for 19 Security Challenges • possibly also on the Secretary-General’s most Peacekeeping Operations Edmond Mulet; for Small Island recent report on the protection of civilians in • the situation in Cyprus, by Lisa Buttenheim, Developing States armed conflict. head of the UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus Briefings, followed by consultations, are (UNFICYP), and Espen Barth Eide, the Sec- 20 Notable Dates expected on: retary-General’s Special Adviser on Cyprus; • the situation in Burundi, by High Commis- and sioner Al Hussein and Under-Secretary-Gen- • the work of the 751/1907 Somalia/Eritrea eral for Political A"airs Je"rey Feltman; Sanctions Committee by its chair, Ambassador • Libya by the head of the UN Support Mission Rafael Darío Ramírez Carreño (Venezuela). in Libya, Bernardino León, and by Ambassa- Formal sessions will be needed to adopt reso- dor Ramlan Ibrahim (Malaysia) on the work lutions to renew the mandates of: of the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee (post- • UNSOM in Somalia; poned from June); • UNISFA in Abyei; • the work of the UN O!ce for West Africa by its • UNAMI in Iraq; and head, Mohammed Ibn Chambas; • UNFICYP in Cyprus. • the work of the UN Assistance Mission in Throughout the month members will be following Somalia (UNSOM) by its head, Nicholas Kay; developments in South Sudan, Ukraine, Ye m e n , • Democratic Republic of the Congo by Martin the Boko Haram-a"ected areas of Africa and the Kobler, head of the UN Organization Stabi- migrant crisis, and additional meetings may be 1 July 2015 lization Mission in the DRC, and by Ambas- scheduled. The Council may also begin discus- This report is available online at sador Dina Kawar (Jordan) on the work of the sions of the reports by the panels reviewing UN securitycouncilreport.org. 1533 DRC Sanctions Committee; peace operations and UN peacebuilding. • For daily insights by SCR on evolving Security Council actions please subscribe to our “What’s In Blue” series at whatsinblue.org or follow @SCRtweets on Twitter.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2015 securitycouncilreport.org 1 Status Updates since our June Forecast

Yemen International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda June, the Council adopted resolution 2226 On 2 June, Council members issued a press (ICTR) in which the respective presidents and extending the mandate of UNOCI for an statement expressing disappointment that prosecutors of these bodies briefed, as well as additional year. the 28 May Geneva talks were postponed the president and prosecutor of the Interna- (SC/11915). The statement urged Yemeni tional Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tri- Sudan (Darfur) stakeholders to engage in talks without pre- bunals (S/PV.7455). The meeting focused on On 10 June, the Council held a briefing (S/ conditions and in good faith, and endorsed the completion strategy reports submitted by PV.7460), followed by consultations, on the the Secretary-General’s call for humani- both Tribunals (S/2015/340 and S/2015/342) situation in Darfur and the UNAMID report tarian pauses. The next day, Special Envoy and the report from the Residual Mechanism (S/2015/378). During the briefing, Assistant Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed (via video tele- (S/2015/341), the handover of activities to the Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Opera- conference) and Under-Secretary General Residual Mechanism, the need to find a satis- tions Edmond Mulet told the Council that for Humanitarian A"airs Stephen O’Brien factory solution to the relocation of persons there had been “limited progress in the peace briefed Council members on Yemen under released or acquitted by the ICTR and the process” and described the “devastating “any other business” in consultations. On need to ensure individuals indicted by the impact that the security situation…had on 18 June, Council members issued a press ICTR, but not yet arrested, are apprehended. innocent civilians”. On 29 June, the Council statement condemning the 17 June terrorist adopted resolution 2228 renewing the man- attacks in Sana’a (SC/11935). On 24 June, South Sudan date of UNAMID for an additional year. A Ould Cheikh Ahmed and OCHA Operations On 3 June, Council members issued a press closed Arria-formula meeting was held on 19 Director John Ging briefed Council mem- statement expressing concern with the deci- June on the human rights situation in Darfur, bers in consultations following the conclu- sion of the government of South Sudan on which was intended to mark the 10th anniver- sion of the Geneva talks. The next day, Coun- 29 May to expel Toby Lanzer, the UN Dep- sary of the Commission of Inquiry report on cil members issued a press statement taking uty Special Representative of the Secretary- Darfur, submitted to the Council on 31 Janu- note of the ‘principles’ for advancing UN- General/Resident Coordinator/Humanitarian ary 2005 (S/2005/60). Former Commission brokered consultations, and again endorsing Coordinator for UNMISS (SC/11916). In the member Hina Jilani; Abdelrahman Gasim of the Secretary-General’s call for humanitarian statement, Council members “condemned in the Darfur Bar Association; and Hawa Abdal- pauses (SC/11944). the strongest terms the repeated violations of la, an IDP camp leader and activist on wom- the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement.” en’s issues, briefed. ICC Prosecutor Fatou Iran Bensouda provided the semi-annual briefing The final report under resolution 2159 from Ukraine on the Court’s work with respect to Darfur on the Panel of Experts assisting the 1737 Iran On 5 June, the Council was briefed on the sit- 29 June (S/PV.7478). Sanctions Committee was issued as a pub- uation in Ukraine by Under-Secretary-Gen- lic document on 2 June (S/2015/401). On eral for Political A"airs Je"rey Feltman and UNOCA/LRA 9 June, the Security Council adopted reso- the Deputy Chief Monitor of the OSCE Spe- On 11 June, the Council was briefed by lution 2224, extending the mandate of the cial Monitoring Mission to Ukraine, Alexan- Special Representative Abdoulaye Bathily Panel for another 13 months until 9 July der Hug (S/PV.7457). Lithuania requested on the UNOCA report (S/2015/339) and 2016. On 23 June the chair of the Committee, the meeting following the significant increase the implementation of the regional strate- Ambassador Román Oyarzun (Spain), pre- in violence in the Donetsk region in the town gy to combat the Lord’s Resistance Army sented his quarterly report to the Council of Marinka. Feltman updated the Council (LRA) (S/PV.7461). The Council adopted on the work of the Committee (S/PV.7469). on the Secretary-General’s visits to Ukraine a presidential statement expressing its con- While reiterating the Committee’s support and Russia as well as the humanitarian situa- cern at the grave security situation in parts for the ongoing negotiations between Iran tion in Ukraine. Hug briefed the Council on of Central Africa, in particular the ongoing and the P5+1, Oyarzun emphasised that the violations and the current state of the imple- crisis in the Central African Republic and sanctions measures imposed by the Council mentation of the Minsk package of measures its regional impact, the continuing threat of remained in full e"ect, reminded states of adopted on 12 February. the LRA and the terrorist activities of Boko their obligations to implement them and said Haram (S/PRST/2015/12). the Committee remained fully committed Côte d’Ivoire to the implementation of all relevant resolu- On 9 June, the Council held a briefing (S/ Counter-Terrorism tions. On 11 June, the latest report from the PV.7459), followed by consultations, to con- On 16 June, the Council received the semi- IAEA on Iran was circulated as a Council sider the UNOCI report (S/2015/320). Dur- annual joint briefing by the chairs of its document (S/2015/425). ing the briefing, Special Representative and three counter-terrorism-related commit- head of UNOCI, Aïchatou Mindaoudou, tees (S/PV.7463). The briefers were Ambas- International Criminal Tribunals expressed the importance of “the creation sador Gerard van Bohemen (New Zealand), On 3 June, the Council held its semi-annual of a peaceful and enabling environment in chair of the 1267/1989 Al-Qaida Sanc- debate on the International Criminal Tribu- the lead-up to, during and after the presiden- tions Committee; Ambassador Raimonda nal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) and the tial elections” scheduled for October. On 25 Murmokaitė (Lithuania), chair of the 1373

2 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2015 Status Update since our June Forecast (con’t)

Counter-Terrorism Committee; and Ambas- Children and Armed Conflict Peacebuilding sador Román Oyarzun (Spain), chair of the On 18 June, the Security Council held an On 25 June, the Council was briefed by Olof 1540 Committee on the non-proliferation open debate focused on the Secretary-Gen- Skoog (Sweden) and Antonio de Aguiar Patr- of weapons of mass destruction. In a press eral’s annual report on children and armed iota (Brazil), the current and former chairs statement on the comprehensive review of the conflict (S/2015/409) and the issue of abduc- of the PBC on the eighth annual Peacebuild- implementation of resolution 1540 following tion of children (S/PV.7466). It adopted reso- ing report (S/2015/174). After the briefing, the briefing, Council members welcomed the lution 2225 which added abductions as an Council members held an informal interac- 1540 Committee’s process for the compre- additional violation to trigger inclusion of a tive dialogue with all six chairs of the PBC hensive review (SC/11929). They noted that party in the annexes of the Secretary-Gener- country-configurations and representatives of the review process started on 28 April when al’s annual report. Malaysian Foreign Min- the PBC agenda countries. Also participating the modalities were formally approved by the ister Dato’ Sri Anifah Aman presided with were Deputy Secretary-General Jan Eliasson, Committee and must be completed before briefings by Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, Assistant Secretary-General for Peacebuild- 30 November 2016 as decided by resolution Special Representative for Children and ing Support Oscar Fernandez-Tarranco and 1977. On 18 June the Council received a let- Armed Conflict Leila Zerrougui and Deputy UN Women Executive Director Phumzile ter from the informal group of like-minded Executive Director of UNICEF Yoka Brandt, Mlambo-Ngcuka. Members of the Adviso- states on targeted sanctions (Austria, Bel- as well as Director of Facilitation for Peace ry Group of Experts on the 2015 Review of gium, Costa Rica, Denmark, Finland, Germa- and Development Eunice Apio. The concept the UN Peacebuilding Architecture and the ny, Liechtenstein, the Nertherlands, Norway, note suggested the debate focus on how the High-Level Panel on Peace Operations also Sweden and Switzerland) expressing concern international community’s response can be participated, as did representatives from DPA, about the risk of a vacancy in the O!ce of the strengthened to address abduction of chil- DPKO and UNDP. Ombudsperson of the 1267 Committee if a dren in armed conflict (S/2015/402). successor to Kimberly Prost was not appoint- Te r r o r i s m ed in a timely manner. The group also noted Mali On 26 June, Council members issued a press that its request to speak at the 16 June brief- On 18 June, Council members issued a press statement condemning terrorist attacks ing had been refused and therefore submitted statement reiterating their support to the against a chemical products factory in the statement it had wanted to deliver as an Agreement on Peace and Reconciliation in France; a bomb attack in a Shi’a mosque in attachment to the letter (S/2015/459). Mali and looking forward to its signing by Kuwait; and gunmen attacking a tourist hotel the Coordination armed groups (SC/11934). in Tunisia (SC/11947). Libya On 23 June, the Council was briefed by On 17 June, Council members issued a press Special Representative Mongi Hamdi on UNDOF (Golan Heights) statement emphasising the urgency for the the Secretary-General’s MINUSMA report On 29 June, the Council adopted resolu- Libyan parties to agree on a Government (S/2015/426) and the 20 June signing of tion 2229 renewing UNDOF for six months of National Accord (SC/11931). Council the peace agreement by the Coordination, after considering the Secretary-General’s members strongly encouraged all partici- thereby completing the signing process (S/ latest report on the observer mission during pants of the political dialogue to positive- PV.7468). The Foreign Minister of Mali, 23 June consultations (S/2015/405). Sepa- ly consider the proposals contained in the Abdoulaye Diop, also participated in the rately, Major General Michael Finn briefed fourth draft and commit to the swift conclu- meeting. On 29 June, the Council adopted the Council on peacekeeping on 17 June on sion of an agreement. resolution 2227 renewing MINUSMA. how national caveats impact UNTSO’s abil- ity provide UNDOF with military observers Peacekeeping Afghanistan able to deploy to the Syrian side of the area On 17 June, the Council was briefed by Hervé The Council held its quarterly debate on of separation (S/PV.7464). Ladsous, Under-Secretary-General for Peace- UNAMA on 22 June with Special Rep- keeping Operations, and the heads of mili- resentative Nicholas Haysom briefing (S/ Climate Change tary components of peacekeeping operations PV.7467) on the situation in Afghanistan and On 30 June, Malaysia and Spain organised an Lieutenant General Yohannes Gebremeskel the UNAMA report (S/2015/422). Haysom Arria-formula meeting on the role of climate Tesfamariam (UNMISS), Major General said that political progress had been achieved change as a threat multiplier for global secu- Michael Lollesgaard (MINUSMA) and with the appointment of all cabinet members, rity. The panel featured Deputy Secretary- Major General Michael Finn (UNTSO). but expressed concern with the challenging General Jan Elliasson and the President of They presented, respectively, on the protec- security situation, describing the infiltration Kiribati Anote Tong. tion of civilians, the challenges associated to of foreign terrorist fighters into the country. operating in an asymmetric environment and A press statement was issued by Council Egypt national caveats and their impact in perfor- members on 22 June condemning the terror- On 29 June, Security Council members mance (S/PV.7464). ist attack by the Taliban on the parliament in issued a press statement condemning the Kabul (SC/11937). assassination of the Egyptian Public Prosecu- tor Hisham Barakat (SC/11955).

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2015 securitycouncilreport.org 3 Burundi

Expected Council Action on Burundi on 31 May in Dar es Salaam. A Conference on the Great Lakes Region, the Burundi is likely to be watched closely by the communiqué issued after the meeting called AU and the UN proposed that the various Council during July. A briefing by High Com- for a postponement of the elections for 45 days. elections be held simultaneously on 30 July. missioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra’ad Al (In response, Burundi announced a new elec- The AU has announced it will not observe the Hussein has been scheduled and the Under- toral calendar, with parliamentary and local 29 June parliamentary and municipal polls. Secretary-General for Political A"airs is also elections scheduled for 29 June, presidential In response to the AU communiqué, on expected to brief. Ambassador Paul Seger elections for 15 July and senatorial elections 21 June, France circulated a draft presiden- (Switzerland), the chair of the Burundi con- on 24 July. Burundi informed the Council in a tial statement taking note of the conclusions figuration of the Peacebuilding Commission letter on 16 June that it will not postpone the in the AU communiqué. The draft expressed a (PBC), may also brief the Council. elections further.) Dieng briefed on his recent concern shared with the EAC and AU that the visit to the country, and warned that violence political dialogue has not produced the expect- Key Recent Developments may escalate into an ethnic conflict. ed results and that conditions are currently not Council members met six times to discuss Council members released a press state- conducive for holding elections. Like the AU the situation in the country after incum- ment that day taking note of the EAC com- communiqué, the draft statement emphasised bent President Pierre Nkurunziza’s 25 April muniqué and calling on all Burundian parties that the Burundian political parties should all announcement that he would run in the to reach agreement on a new electoral cal- agree on the date of the election. It further presidential election. During this period, endar; urging protection of civil and human stressed that the Burundian dialogue should they received 16 communications from the rights, respect for the rule of law, and urgent address concerns over the protection of civil Burundian government. The constitutionality disarmament of all armed youth groups allied and human rights, including the freedom of of Nkurunziza’s running for a third term has to political parties. expression and peaceful assembly, release of been widely questioned. During the Coun- On 11 June, Djinnit stepped down as detainees, respect for the rule of law and disar- cil’s visit to Burundi on 13 March, several UN mediator after several opposition par- mament of youth groups, prior to the elections. Council members stressed to Nkurunziza ties requested his removal, alleging that he However, Russia, supported by China, did that a third term would be very divisive and a was biased. The head of the UN O!ce for not want to mention the lack of success in the risk to Burundi’s stability. Central Africa, Abdoulaye Bathily, has suc- political dialogue or to state that conditions Violence has indeed prevailed in Burundi ceeded him. On 22 June, Bathily briefed the for elections have yet to be met. Significantly, since late April. According to the Associa- Security Council’s Working Group on Con- Russia suggested that there is no room for tion for the Protection of Human Rights and flict Prevention and Resolution in Africa further delays and for a new schedule to be Detained Persons, a Burundi-based group, at when it discussed the prospects of mitigating adopted by consensus. In essence, their posi- least 77 civilians have been killed in clashes pre- and post-electoral challenges in Africa. tion entailed noting the AU and EAC state- with security forces, over 1,000 people have He said, in the case of Burundi, the EAC is ments but not adopting them as the Council’s been arrested and dozens of prisoners tor- best placed to provide support. own position. The African members were also tured. Burundi police, who have also suf- On 13 June, the AU Peace and Security opposed to the text as they see a consensus- fered casualties, have denied torture allega- Council (PSC) issued a communiqué in based election date as an infringement of the tions. The crisis has resulted in some 100,000 support of the EAC e"orts. It called for the Burundian constitutional order (notwith- Burundians fleeing to neighbouring countries. date of the election to be set by consensus standing that both Chad and Nigeria are cur- There have been reports of reprisals against between the Burundian parties and based rently members of the AU PSC). the protestors by the Imbonerakure, the on a technical assessment undertaken by the The presidential statement was eventually youth wing of Burundi’s ruling party, which UN. The AU also decided to deploy human adopted on 26 June, calling on the parties to the government has been accused of arming. rights observers and military experts to ver- participate in inclusive dialogue in the “spirit A failed 13 May coup attempt by Burundi’s ify the process of disarming the militias and of the Arusha Agreements, and the Constitu- former head of intelligence Major-General other armed groups. In addition it indicated tion” on what is needed to create conducive Godefroid Niyombare, sacked in February its willingness to take measures against those conditions for the elections. for his opposition to Nkurunziza’s third term, perpetuating violence and impeding a politi- has added to the tensions in the country, as cal solution, and explicitly asked the Security Developments in the PBC have the fleeing of several high-level o!cials. Council to endorse the communiqué. Council members were last briefed about On 26 June, the Secretary-General also - Burundi on 4 June by the Secretary-General’s called for the postponement of the elections, tion released a press statement expressing its full Special Envoy for the Great Lakes, Said Djinnit, after the opposition announced a boycott support for Djinnit and calling on the opposition and by Adama Dieng, the Secretary-General’s of the polls, in order to create an environ- to reconsider its position against his mediation Special Adviser for the Prevention of Genocide. ment conducive for inclusive elections. On Seger is scheduled to visit Burundi for the last Djinnit updated Council members on the East the same day, a joint international facilita- African Community (EAC) emergency summit tion team comprising the EAC, International as the Swiss permanent representative to the UN.

UN DOCUMENTS ON BURUNDI Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2015/13 (26 June 2015) called on all parties in Burundi to participate in inclusive dialogue to create conducive conditions for the elections. Security Council Letters S/2015/437 (16 June 2015) was from Burundi detailing the new electoral calendar and that Burundi will not postpone the elections further. S/2015/436 (15 June 2015) contained the AU PSC communiqué of 13 June on Burundi.

4 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2015 Burundi (con’t)

Key Issues political dialogue and those responsible for political rights by the government. This dis- An immediate issue is ensuring that Burun- human rights violations. agreement has resulted in relatively weak di does not descend into chaos and further messaging from the Council which has not violence. Council and Wider Dynamics gone beyond reiterating the need for dialogue, Should the political situation take a sig- After the termination of the UN O!ce in disarmament of youth groups and uphold- nificant turn for the worse, an issue for the Burundi in 2014 at the request of Burundi ing the rule of law. This di"erence of opin- Council will be how to act quickly in order (and against the will of UN o!cials, civil ion continues to dominate Council dynam- to prevent the situation from developing into society groups and some Council members) ics, as evidenced by the negotiations over the an acute crisis. and the downsizing of the UN presence to an 26 June presidential statement, resulting in a Ensuring that the 2015 elections are free electoral mission, as well as the UN Coun- rather passive monitoring role for the Council and fair, with the participation of opposition try Team, and the continued presence of the during the current crisis and lack of endorse- parties unhindered by the government and O!ce of the High Commissioner for Human ment of the AU communiqué. In contrast its youth wing, will be a further issue for the Rights, the Council has been somewhat mar- to the Council’s passivity, Burundi has sent Council. ginalised in its role and has essentially let the Council several letters over the last few regional and subregional actors take the lead months conveying its position as to the ongo- Options in addressing the current crisis. ing crisis. It seems at this point that there is The Council may continue to monitor the There is disagreement between those general acceptance by Council members situation throughout the election period to Council members who, such as Russia and (albeit reluctantly by some) of the inevitabil- ensure that its recent presidential statement China, see this as an internal constitutional ity of Nkurunziza’s running for a third term, is implemented by Burundi. issue, and those such as France and the US, and the focus has shifted to minimising the If the political situation fails to improve or who wish to take a hard line against Nku- violence and improving the conditions for the worsens, the Council might consider adopt- runziza’s third-term bid, the crackdown on holding of free and fair elections. ing targeted sanctions against spoilers of the the opposition and the quashing of civil and

Srebrenica Anniversary

Expected Council Action Srebrenica on 11 July. Around 20,000 Bos- for the Former Yugoslavia and the Interna- In July, the Council is expected to hold a nian Muslims fled to the UN contingent’s tional Court of Justice would later determine meeting to commemorate the 20th anni- headquarters at Potočari, located north of the that the mass murder at Srebrenica amount- versary of the Srebrenica genocide. Briefers town, coming under Bosnian Serb artillery fire ed to an act of genocide. may include Deputy Secretary-General Jan on the way. Meanwhile, an estimated 15,000 The UN and the Security Council both Eliasson and High Commissioner for Human Bosniak men gathered to the northwest of the came under heavy criticism for the Srebren- Rights Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein. town, whence they would try to cross Bosnian ica massacre. The Dutch peacekeepers who The Council may adopt a resolution. Serb lines and make their way through the had been assigned to protect the town were forest to Bosnian government-controlled ter- criticised for not defending the enclave from Background ritory 50 kilometres west in Tuzla. the Bosnian Serb advance and for ordering all Srebrenica, in eastern Bosnia and Herze- The ensuing days saw the killing of an the men who had sought refuge at Potočari govina (BiH), was designated by the Secu- estimated 8,000 Bosnian men by Bosnian out of the compound and handing them over rity Council as a “safe area” during the Serb forces. At the UN base at Potočari, men to the BSA. A reluctance to use force and a country’s 1992-1995 war. The Bosnian Serb were separated from women and children series of errors led to delays by the UN in Army (BSA) maintained a siege of the enclave and later executed. Thousands died dur- approving requests from the Dutch com- during much of the war, which came under ing the attempted escape through the forest mander at Srebrenica for NATO air strikes the protection of the UN Protection Force while coming under Bosnian Serb fire or were against the BSA, which started shelling the (UNPROFOR) beginning in April 1993. In killed in mass executions after surrendering. “safe area” on 6 July. When NATO airstrikes July 1995, the BSA launched an o"ensive Most were buried in mass graves and later finally occurred on 11 July, they were limited against the enclave, seizing a number of UN reburied in more dispersed sites to hide the to dropping only two bombs. observation posts before entering the town of crimes. The International Criminal Tribunal Greater responsibility for the events at

UN DOCUMENTS ON SREBRENICA Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2150 of responsibility to protect populations from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity, taking into account the 1994 genocide in Rwanda. S/RES/1034 (21 Most. S/RES/1004S/RES/844 (18 June 1993) authorised the reinforcement of UNPROFOR. S/RES/824S/RES/819 (16 April 1993) demanded that Srebrenica and its surroundings be treated as a safe area. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/1996/41 (10 October 1996) requested to be kept regularly informed into progress on investigations of violations at Srebrenica. Secretary-General’s Report A/54/549 (15 November 1999) assessed the events dating from the establishment of the safe area of Srebrenica.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2015 securitycouncilreport.org 5 Srebrenica Anniversary (con’t)

Srebrenica, however, lies with the Coun- Žepa, Banja Luća and Sanski Most in resolu- sides during the war; cil and the international community more tion 1034. Nearly a year later, in a 10 October • underscores the importance of reconcili- broadly because of the lack of political will 1996 presidential statement, the Council con- ation; and during the war to confront the Bosnian Serb demned obstruction of the investigations, and • rea!rms the importance of learning from campaign of ethnic cleansing. A significant requested the Secretary-General to keep it the failures of the international commu- part of the problem had been the resort to the regularly informed on the matter. The issue of nity to prevent the genocide at Srebrenica untested concept of a “safe area”. Srebrenica the investigation remained on the Council’s for future preventive action. was the first location designated as a “safe “Tentative Forecast of Work” for the next ten Holding the commemoration without area” on 16 April 1993, when the Council years, though it seems it was never revisited. adopting a resolution is another option. adopted resolution 819. Subsequently, the A self-critical report on Srebrenica was Council adopted resolution 824, expanding produced by the UN in 1999, pursuant to Council and Wider Dynamics the safe-area designations to Sarajevo, Tuzla, General Assembly resolution 53/35. Secre- A plan to adopt a Council resolution to mark Žepa, Goražde and Bihać. Though the UN tary-General Kofi Annan, who had been the the 20th anniversary of the Srebrenica geno- Secretariat advised that e"ectively protecting head of UN peacekeeping at the time, gave cide is a very sensitive issue within BiH as well these safe areas would require 34,000 addi- strong backing for an assessment of UN as Serbia. Since the war, BiH continues to face tional troops, the Council authorised only actions in the context of the tragedy. This divisions along ethnic lines. The president of 7,600 additional peacekeepers in resolution report documented the decisions and events Republika Srpska—the predominantly Bos- 844. In July 1995, the Dutch contingent from the creation of the safe area policy in nian Serb entity of BiH—has criticised the in Srebrenica numbered 450 peacekeepers. 1993 to the eventual genocide. planned resolution and reportedly intended They were lightly armed and therefore no to ask Russia to veto it. (On BiH issues, Rus- match for the BSA’s artillery and tanks. Key Issues sia usually supports the positions of Repub- In addition to failing to provide the safe The Council is expected to commemorate lika Srpska.) In initial discussions on the text, areas with a credible military deterrent, the those who lost their lives at Srebrenica, and Russia and China have apparently expressed Council resolutions, though adopted under to rea!rm its determination to prevent geno- opposition to a resolution. Chapter VII, left unclear whether UN troops cide. A key issue is how to do this in a reso- Some members see adopting a resolu- could use force to defend the zones and pop- lution amidst the sensitivities and divisions tion on Srebrenica as a logical follow-up to ulation from attack or only in self-defence. in BiH. last year’s resolution 2150 on the prevention Thus it was left up to the Secretariat and Reflecting on the failures of the Security of and fight against genocide to commemo- UNPROFOR’s commander to interpret how Council and the UN that led to the massa- rate the 20th anniversary of the 1994 geno- they should protect the enclaves. The tragedy cre in a Council-proclaimed “safe area” is an cide in Rwanda. The UK has taken the lead at Srebrenica became a classic example of the additional issue. in the Council on drafting a resolution. The Council’s failure to match mandates with the 17-member Preparatory Committee for the means to fulfil them. It also demonstrated Options Commemoration of the 20th Anniversary of the risks of deploying a peacekeeping mis- The Council may adopt a resolution that: the Srebrenica Genocide in New York includes sion into areas of open conflict. • condemns in the strongest terms the geno- Council members Chile, France, Jordan, The Council later sought a full investiga- cide at Srebrenica; Malaysia, New Zealand, the UK and the US. tion into violations committed at Srebrenica, • condemns all crimes committed by all

UN Office for West Africa

Expected Council Action Key Recent Developments elections scheduled for 14 February due to In July, Mohammed Ibn Chambas, the head The Boko Haram threat has continued security conditions. Over the next six weeks, of the UN O!ce for West Africa (UNOWA), to impact the situation in Nigeria and the most cities and towns previously seized by will brief the Council, followed by consul- region. In February, forces from Chad and Boko Haram were recaptured. tations. Members will be considering the Niger intervened in Nigeria’s northeast, Nigeria’s elections were held on 28 March, semi-annual UNOWA report. No outcome while Nigeria, reportedly assisted by South and were conducted relatively peacefully. is expected. African mercenaries, launched an o"ensive Mohammadu Buhari of the All Progressives against Boko Haram after announcing the Congress and a former general and head of postponement of presidential and legislative state, who promised to defeat Boko Haram

KEY DOCUMENTS ON UNOWA Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2015/4 further planning for the MNJTF’s operationalisation. Secretary-General’s Report S/2015/472 (24 June 2015) was on developments in West Africa and the activities of UNOWA Security Council Press Statement SC/11927 (15 June 2015) condemned Boko Haram attacks on 15 June in N’Djamena, Chad. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.7421 (30 March 2015) S/PV.7357

6 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2015 UN Office for West Africa (con’t)

and fight corruption, prevailed over the In Burkina Faso, transitional president bombs), forced labour, forced marriage, sexual incumbent, President Goodluck Jonathan. Michel Kafando announced on 22 January violence and rape. The statement also highlighted Buhari’s inauguration on 29 May marked the that presidential and legislation elections would reports of violations of international human rights and international humanitarian law by Nigerian first time that the Nigerian presidency was be held on 11 October. On 4 February, mem- armed forces. The High Commissioner urged the transferred democratically to an opposition bers of the presidential guard called for inter- new Nigerian administration to take urgent mea- leader. Buhari travelled to Niger and Chad im Prime Minister Isaac Zida to resign amidst sures to bring perpetrators, whether non-state or on 3 and 4 June to discuss e"orts to com- plans to reduce the unit’s size. A 7 February state actors, to justice and called on the authori- bat the group and then attended the 7-8 June compromise resolved the brief threat to Burki- ties to ensure that counter-insurgency operations do not result in furthering the human rights devas- G7 summit in Germany to request increased na Faso’s transition. Tensions have also revolved tation in the country’s northeast. international assistance for such e"orts. around changes to the electoral code that ban At an 11 June summit in Abuja, lead- candidates who supported a constitutional ers of Benin, Cameroon, Chad, Niger and amendment to presidential term limits last Key Issues Nigeria met to finalise plans for the Multina- year, which would have allowed former Presi- How the Council can support regional e"orts tional Joint Task Force (MNJTF), which the dent Blaise Compaoré to run for a third term. to address the Boko Haram threat remains a AU Peace and Security Council (PSC) has At a 19 May summit of the Economic key issue. authorised to total 10,000 military personnel. Community of West African States, a propos- The current electoral cycle in West Africa, Buhari announced Nigeria would provide the al to ban presidential third terms was deferred, including presidential elections this year in MNJTF with $100 million, and the five coun- as Togo—whose president won a third term Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire and Guinea, is tries committed to the force’s deployment by in April—and Gambia—whose president has also a key issue. 30 July. The summit communiqué also called ruled since 1994 and defeated a coup attempt on the Security Council to adopt “a declara- in December 2014—opposed it. Options tive statement in support of the MNJTF”. Regarding the Ebola epidemic in the The Council may issue a statement highlight- Previously, on 29 May, the MNJTF’s new region, almost two months after being ing its intention to pay close attention to elec- headquarters was inaugurated in N’Djamena, declared free of Ebola by the World Health toral processes in West Africa and stressing Chad, and Nigerian general Tukur Buratai Organization (WHO), Liberia announced its the importance for all actors to create condu- was installed as force commander. first new case on 30 June. In Guinea and Sier- cive conditions for free, credible and peaceful Despite some progress fighting Boko ra Leone, WHO raised concerns following an elections that are scheduled later this year or Haram, the group remains a significant threat. increase in Ebola cases for two consecutive in 2016. Since late May there has been an uptick in weeks in late May and June. In considering Boko Haram, the Council Boko Haram terrorist attacks. These include may adopt a presidential statement that: the killing of 26 people on 30 May by a sui- Developments in the Council’s Subsidiary • welcomes regional e"orts to address the cide bomber at a mosque in Maiduguri; a Bodies threat of the group; bomb explosion killing 45 in Yola, Adamawa - • urges international support of the state; and the killing of 43 people in six villag- 22 June to discuss the prospects of mitigat- MNJTF; es in Damboa, Borno state, on 10 June. Boko ing pre- and post-electoral challenges in Africa. • stresses that the MNJTF conduct Haram is also believed responsible for suicide - operations in accordance with interna- bombings at two police facilities in N’Djamena lighted elements important for successful demo- tional humanitarian and human rights on 15 June that killed at least 25 people, repre- cratic elections, including: the independence of law; and national electoral commissions, the role of civil senting the group’s first attacks in the Chadian society groups, freedom of the press and access • appeals for the international community capital. On 17 June, Boko Haram attacks on to media for candidates, and the impartiality and to scale up support to address more ade- two towns in Niger killed at least 40. Nigeria neutrality of security forces. He referred to Nige- quately the humanitarian crisis caused by also continues to cope with a major humanitar- ria’s elections as a success amidst concerns over the conflict. ian crisis, with more than 1.5 million internally the potential for violence. displaced persons due to the conflict, 200,000 Council Dynamics refugees in the region and as many as 5 million Human Rights-Related Developments Members seem to value the role that Cham- Nigerians needing assistance. The Human Rights Council held a special session bas, who is also the Secretary-General’s High- on Boko Haram on 1 April. It adopted a resolution Internal turmoil has continued in sever- Level Representative to Nigeria, has played. As requesting a report on human rights violations al other countries in the region. In Guinea, committed by Boko Haram for submission at its Council members were negotiating a resolu- opposition protests have been ongoing since 30th session (A/HRC/RES/S-23/1). In a state- tion last March on Boko Haram, the US asked the electoral commission announced on 10 ment on 5 June, High Commissioner for Human Chambas to brief on the group’s impact in the March that presidential elections would take Rights Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein said that interviews region, a meeting held the day after Nigeria - place in October and local elections would completed voting in the presidential election. be postponed until 2016. Local elections, last held by Boko Haram painted a picture of “abso- The Council’s last meeting on UNOWA in held in 2005, have been repeatedly delayed. lute terror and grave human rights violations” by January also focused heavily on Boko Haram Chambas travelled to Guinea several times the insurgents, including wanton killings, summary and risks to Nigeria’s elections. to facilitate political dialogue, while UNOWA executions, forced participation in military opera- Earlier this year, the Council seemed tions (including the use of children to detonate deployed a technical team. poised to become more involved in addressing

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2015 securitycouncilreport.org 7 UN Office for West Africa (con’t) the conflict. The 30 March briefing was the Chapter 7. P3 members said that they would significant enough resources. Furthermore, Council’s first specifically on Boko Haram. At not impose a Chapter 7 resolution against the there was less need for a resolution after Nige- that time, Council members were consider- will of Nigeria as the country most a"ected ria o"ered to provide most of the MNJTF’s ing a draft resolution circulated by Chad on by the conflict. Chad, which has pushed for funding. Following the request by LCBC behalf of the African Council members, Lake stronger Council engagement on the issue, countries for a Council statement in support Chad Basin Commission (LCBC) members eventually ended its e"orts to have the res- of the MNJTF, members may start negotiat- and the AU that sought Council backing olution adopted. Chad realised it would be ing a draft presidential statement. Chad cir- of the MNJTF, including financial support. unable to obtain a resolution that included culated an initial draft of such a statement in Four expert-level meetings were held but the funding support it thought requisite. The late May, but Council members have yet to negotiations stalled after Nigeria changed P3 would only support establishing a trust start negotiations on the text. its position and opposed a resolution under fund, which Chad felt would not provide Nigeria is the penholder on West Africa.

Sudan and South Sudan

Expected Council Action Sudan border. The concept of operations and Menkerios reported that the humanitarian sit- In July, Council members will hold consul- support concept of the JBVMM were analysed uation in South Kordofan and Blue Nile states tations on the implementation of resolution by the assessment team, but the Secretary- remained grave amidst persistent fighting. 2046 on Sudan/South Sudan issues, as well as General’s current report said that “the findings On 6 May, Under-Secretary-General for on the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei of this technical review could not be discussed Peacekeeping Operations Hervé Ladsous (UNISFA). Haile Menkerios, the Special with the Governments of Sudan and South briefed Council members in consultations Envoy for Sudan and South Sudan, is expect- Sudan before the publication of this report and on UNISFA. He said that polling was held ed to brief on Sudan/South Sudan, while the will be presented in my next report”. The Sec- in Misseriya ethnic areas in northern Abyei head of UNISFA, Haile Tilahun Gebre- retary-General stated that the UN’s investment during Sudan’s 13-16 April elections, adding mariam, will brief on the mission’s activities. in the JBVMM “cannot continue if the parties that there had been no violent incidents dur- The Council is expected to renew UNISFA’s do not invest themselves in the success of this ing the electoral process. Ladsous said that the mandate prior to its 15 July expiration. mechanism”. Among other things, the parties reconvening on 29-30 March in Addis Aba- have not been able to come to agreement on ba of the Abyei Joint Oversight Committee Key Recent Developments a centre line of the Safe Demilitarised Bor- (AJOC), designed to provide administrative In recent months, Sudan and South Sudan der Zone, and several areas along the border and political oversight to the area, had been have not made progress in addressing unre- remain disputed. Furthermore, they have yet an encouraging development. (The AJOC had solved issues—including, in particular, the to make progress in demarcating those areas of not met since May 2013, when Ngok-Dinka demarcation of their mutual border, the final the border on which there is agreement. paramount chief Deng Kuol Deng was assas- status of the disputed Abyei area and the A meeting of Abyei’s traditional leaders to sinated by a Misseriya.) establishment of temporary administrative promote reconciliation between the Ngok- units in Abyei. They continue to exchange Dinka and the Misseriya communities had Key Issues periodic accusations of support for rebel been scheduled for 20-24 June in Addis Ababa. Given the internal turmoil in Sudan and groups in each other’s country. According to a 24 June AU press statement, the South Sudan, a key question is whether both On 14 and 15 June, Sudanese aircraft meeting did not take place, with “South Suda- countries are in position to work toward a reportedly dropped bombs across the border nese community leaders…requesting an indefi- resolution of their outstanding di"erences at in Maban and Renk counties, located in South nite postponement to resolve internal challeng- the current time. The fact that the Joint Politi- Sudan’s Upper Nile state. Peter Hoth Tuach, a es relating to their participation.” cal and Security Mechanism (JPSM) has not South Sudanese o!cial, alleged that a wom- Council members last met to discuss imple- convened in more than two years is not an an and four children had been injured in the mentation of resolution 2046 on 24 March, encouraging sign, although the AU High- bombing of Maban, while a South Sudanese with Menkerios briefing. He told members Level Implementation Panel is currently try- soldier had been killed in the bombing of Renk. that Khartoum would be willing to continue ing to organise a meeting of this body. From 17 to 29 May, UNISFA and the the “national dialogue” following the April There are several ongoing, unresolved chal- Departments of Peacekeeping Operations and elections. (President Omar al-Bashir was re- lenges that contribute to insecurity in Abyei. Field Support conducted an assessment of elected president with 94 percent of the vote The inability of Sudan and South Sudan to the Joint Border Verification and Monitoring in an election boycotted by the major opposi- establish temporary security and administra- Mechanism (JBVMM) along the Sudan-South tion parties and marked by low voter turnout.) tive units—the Abyei Area Council, the Abyei

UN DOCUMENTS ON SUDAN/SOUTH SUDAN Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2046 Movement-North to resolve outstanding issues. S/RES/2205 (26 February 2015) renewed the mandate of UNISFA until 15 July. Secretary-General’s Report S/2015/439 (16 June 2015) was a report on UNISFA.

8 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2015 Sudan and South Sudan (con’t)

Area administration and the Abyei Police Implementation Panel’s e"orts to recon- Council Dynamics Force—has created a law and order vacuum in vene the JPSM; Most Council members remain frustrated the region. Meanwhile, the presence of Suda- • condemns aerial bombardments across that Sudan and South Sudan, engaged in their nese security forces at the Di"ra oil facility in the border in South Sudan; and respective domestic crises, have made little northern Abyei and of South Sudanese troops • suggests that bilateral donors consider headway in addressing issues of mutual con- in the southern part of the region represents o"ering debt relief to Sudan in exchange cern, such as border demarcation, the estab- a potential source of instability and violates for substantive political reforms and a lishment of temporary administrative units in numerous Security Council resolutions, as credible peace process. Abyei and the final status of the region. While well as the 20 June 2011 agreement signed by The Council could consider requesting a encouraged that the AJOC finally met at the the government of Sudan and the then gov- report from the Secretariat investigating alle- end of March, most members are concerned ernment of Southern Sudan. (South Sudan gations that Sudan and South Sudan are sup- about the political fragility and potential volatil- became an independent state on 9 July 2011.) porting rebels in each other’s territories. ity of the region. At the most recent UNISFA The future of the JBVMM, which the With respect to UNISFA, the Council consultations on 6 May, Angola mentioned the Council authorised UNISFA to support in could consider: need for the parties to avoid violence against resolution 2024 of 14 December 2011, is • renewing the mandate for an additional six women and children, while Venezuela under- another important matter for the Council. months without any fundamental changes; scored that the lack of economic development The Secretary-General wrote in his recent • renewing the mandate and determining at in Abyei was a source of conflict in the region. report that “investment [in the JBVMM] an interim moment in the mandate cycle Many of the briefings on the implementa- cannot continue if the parties do not invest whether UNISFA should continue sup- tion of resolution 2046 touch on domestic themselves in the success of this mechanism.” porting the JBVMM, once the JBVMM political issues in Sudan, such as the nation- To date, more than $26 million has been review team’s findings are available to al dialogue process and the elections. While expended to build infrastructure and support them; most members are amenable to a discussion the mechanism, which is barely operational. • requesting a greater focus on human rights of such issues, Russia has expressed discom- issues in the Secretary-General’s reporting fort with this, believing that domestic politics Options to the Council; and in Sudan are outside the purview of resolu- Regarding Sudan/South Sudan, the Council • encouraging more regular meetings of the tion 2046. could consider adopting a statement that: AJOC. The US is the penholder on Sudan/South • expresses support for the AU High-Level Sudan issues and on UNISFA.

Lebanon

Expected Council Action the Lebanese parliament has still not been On 8 June, as part of her regular region- In July, Special Coordinator for Lebanon Sig- able to elect a new head of state. This power al outreach, Kaag visited Tehran, where she rid Kaag and Assistant Secretary-General for vacuum has impaired Lebanon’s capacity to met with Iranian Minister of Foreign A"airs Peacekeeping Operations Edmond Mulet will deal with a range of political and social chal- Mohammad Javad Zarif. The discussion was brief Council members in consultations on lenges. Furthermore, the influx of 1.2 million primarily focused on the current political sit- the Secretary-General’s report on the imple- registered Syrian refugees and fighting along uation in Lebanon, outstanding issues related mentation of resolution 1701, which called Lebanon’s northeastern border with Syria to resolution 1701 and the impact of the Syr- for a cessation of hostilities between Hezbol- continue to threaten the country’s stability. ian crisis. Kaag reiterated the importance of lah and Israel in 2006. Kaag issued a press release on 25 May call- electing a president without further delay. The mandate of the UN Interim Force in ing on Lebanese leaders to resolve the issue The war in Syria continues to have desta- Lebanon (UNIFIL) expires on 31 August. of the election of a head of state for the sake bilising political and social e"ects on Leba- of Lebanon’s stability. Kaag also pointed out non, with Hezbollah fighting openly along- Key Recent Developments that the executive-level vacuum adds to the side government forces in the Syrian conflict. Lebanon has been facing substantial chal- country’s political polarisation during a time In an address on 25 May to mark the 15th lenges in its domestic political situation as when Lebanon “must make a unified e"ort anniversary of Israeli withdrawal from Leb- well as external threats. Thirteen months after to safeguard the country from the impact of anon, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah Michel Sleiman’s presidential term expired, the Syrian crisis”. again acknowledged that Hezbollah has been

UN DOCUMENTS ON LEBANON Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2172S/RES/1559 (2 September 2004) urged Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2015/7 Secretary-General’s Reports S/2015/258 (16 April 2015) was the most recent 1559 report. S/2015/147 (27 February 2015) was the most recent 1701 report. Security Council Press Statement SC/11766

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2015 securitycouncilreport.org 9 Lebanon (con’t)

fighting throughout Syria and said that it will a senior Israeli military o!cial said that Israel Options expand its presence there as needed. would try to limit civilian causalities in a pos- The likely option for the Council is to receive During the last two months, Hezbollah sible confrontation with Hezbollah. According the briefing and take no action. Council has been engaged in heavy battles in the Qala- to the same reports, Israel has implied it would members are only expected to discuss the moun mountain range in Syria along the bor- give civilians in southern Lebanon notice prior substantive issues related to UNIFIL’s man- der with Lebanon, where it captured territory to launching an o"ensive against Hezbollah. date ahead of the renewal in August. from Al-Nusra Front. On 9 June, the Islamic On 5 June, Nasrallah responded that Hezbol- State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) attacked lah would displace millions of Israelis should Council Dynamics Hezbollah’s positions around the Lebanese Israel launch a war on Lebanon. Despite this There is consensus in the Council that UNI- town of Ras Baalbek along the northeastern increase in rhetoric, the only recent Israeli air- FIL contributes to stability between Israel and Lebanon-Syria border. Hezbollah managed strike that has been carried out was on 21 June Lebanon and has become even more critical in to fend o" the attack, killing several ISIS mili- in western Lebanon, allegedly to destroy one light of the ongoing Syrian crisis. A presiden- tants, including a Saudi national who was the of its own drones that crashed in the area. tial statement issued on 19 March outlined the leader of the group in the Qalamoun region. main issues on which the Council stands unit- According to some reports, the Lebanese Key Issues ed in its support of Lebanon. Among those are army carried out airstrikes in the same area The key issue for the Council is the impact the Council’s concerns about the continued though it was unclear if those were coordi- of the Syrian conflict on the situation in power vacuum caused by the vacancy in the nated with Hezbollah. Lebanon. presidency; support for Lebanon’s sovereignty, The security situation on the Israel-Leba- An increasingly worrying issue is Leba- territorial integrity and security; and unity in non border has remained relatively calm since non’s inability to elect a president, which condemning the acts of terrorism on Lebanese the conclusion of hostilities in January which has deadlocked the country’s parliament and territory and in recognising the crucial role of resulted in the death of one peacekeeper and could threaten the country’s stability. the Lebanese Armed Forces in responding to two Israeli soldiers. According to media reports, An ongoing issue for the Council is the security challenges however, Israeli military o!cials have identi- increasing involvement of Hezbollah and oth- France is the penholder on Lebanon in fied numerous Hezbollah military sites locat- er non-state actors in the Syrian conflict, as the Council. ed within civilian populated areas in southern well as the growing burden of hosting over 1.2 Lebanon. Speaking on condition of anonymity, million registered refugees from Syria.

Syria

Expected Council Action opposition groups and the Islamic State of prioritised rebel defeat over targeting ISIS. In July, Council members expect to receive Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS). These losses to oppo- Regarding the military situation, a joint their regular monthly briefings on the chemi- sition groups are attributed to increased coor- o"ensive by Kurdish and Free Syrian Army cal weapons and humanitarian tracks in Syria. dination between Turkey, Saudi Arabia and (FSA) forces, supported by US-led airstrikes, Special Envoy for Syria Sta"an de Mistura Qatar, with support from the West. However, seized the ISIS-held town of Tel Abyad near is also expected to report back to Council he said Damascus was secure as were other the Turkish border on 15 June, cutting o" members on the political track. key areas, such as Homs, Hama and Qala- a major supply line to ISIS’s stronghold in At press time, several initiatives by vari- moun. He added that Iran, Russia and the Raqqa. On 29 June, Ankara—concerned that ous Council members on the issues of chlo- Tehran-backed Lebanese Shi’a militia, Hez- the consolidation of Kurdish gains in Syria rine bombs, violation of medical neutrality, bollah, would continue to support the Syrian could ignite Kurdish separatist sentiment in besieged communities and aerial bombard- government. Indeed, on 2 June—the same day Turkey—debated its military options. Presi- ment were ongoing. However, it was unclear the anti-ISIS coalition met in Paris—Iranian dent Tayyip Erdogan’s o!ce said any security which, if any, of these would gain traction in President Hassan Rouhani said his country measures Turkey takes will be aimed at pro- the coming weeks and months. would stand by the government of Syria to the tecting the border and not intervening in Syria. end and characterised Syria as the front line Northwest Syria has also seen a significant Key Recent Developments of defence against Sunni extremism. Mean- upsurge in fighting around Aleppo and in Idlib On 12 June, the Syrian deputy foreign min- while, in early June, rebel groups accused the province. On 4 June, OCHA Operations Direc- ister acknowledged that the government had government of supporting ISIS expansion in tor John Ging briefed Security Council mem- recently lost more ground to various armed Syria. Analysts note that the Syrian regime has bers under “any other business” on the 30 May

UN DOCUMENTS ON SYRIA Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2209 (6 March 2015) and S/RES/2118 (27 September 2013) were on chemical weapons. S/RES/2191 (17 December 2014), S/RES/2165 (14 July 2014) and S/RES/2139 (22 February 2014) were on the humanitarian situation. Security Council Press Statement SC/11921 (5 June 2015) condemned indiscriminate attacks on civilians. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7476 (29 June 2015) was on the humanitarian situation. Security Council Letter S/2015/454 (18 June 2015) was from 71 member states expressing outrage about the use of barrel bombs. Secretary-General’s Reports S/2015/468 (23 June 2015) was on the humanitarian situation. S/2015/391 (28 May 2015) was on chemical weapons.

10 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2015 Syria (con’t)

barrel bomb attacks by government helicopters of an accelerating cycle of violence and that all proposed that any response could instead be targeting a civilian market in Aleppo. The same parties deliberately attack civilians. He added formulated in a presidential statement. The day, de Mistura said it was “totally unaccept- US draft has not been discussed beyond the able that the Syrian air force attacks its own ter- Commission’s June update said that the Security P5 and, in fact, was being negotiated exclu- ritory in an indiscriminate way, killing its own Council has nourished a deeply entrenched cul- sively between Russia and the US. At press citizens, as brutally happened today in Aleppo”. ture of impunity and called for it to refer the situa- time, it was unclear how active these bilateral De Mistura condemned ongoing government tion in Syria to the ICC (A/HRC/29/CRP.3). negotiations were. attacks again on 8 June and rebel shelling of Although unlikely, the Council could government-held Aleppo on 16 June. Key Issues vote to refer Syria to the General Assembly Some Council members had also raised The main issue for the Council—in the fifth under “Uniting for Peace” so that the Gen- the issue of aerial bombardment during the 3 year of a war that has exacted a death toll of eral Assembly may recommend collective June consultations on the chemical weapons 220,000, injured one million and displaced action, including sanctions and the use of track as chlorine attacks have allegedly been half of the Syrian population—is to find ways force. This would be a procedural vote and carried out via barrel bombs dropped from to show leadership, particularly in support- therefore cannot be vetoed by the P5 and only government helicopters. ing a cessation of violence and resuscitating requires nine a!rmative votes. A “Uniting for On 5 June, Council members issued a press e"orts for a political solution. Peace” resolution by the General Assembly statement expressing outrage at indiscriminate Ongoing issues include how to get agree- can confer legitimacy on international col- attacks against civilians, including those involv- ment to follow up on the violations of resolu- lective action, but it would carry no binding ing shelling and aerial bombardment. On 18 tions 2139, 2165 and 2191 on the humanitar- obligation for such action. June, 71 member states that strongly believe ian situation and 2118 and 2209 on chemical the protection situation in Syria is getting weapons—in particular aerial bombardment Council and Wider Dynamics worse—including Council members France, and the use of chlorine bombs. Despite overwhelming indications that vari- Jordan, Lithuania, Malaysia, New Zealand, ous resolutions threatening consequences for Spain, the UK and the US—sent a letter to Options lack of implementation have continually been the Security Council expressing outrage at the While the Council has many tools at its dis- breached, it is unlikely that Council mem- continued indiscriminate use of weapons, such posal—such as imposing an arms embargo or bers will push for follow-up measures, such as barrel bombs. These member states called targeted sanctions, referring Syria to the ICC as targeted sanctions or another attempt at on the Security Council to ensure implemen- and authorising a no-fly zone to deter Syria an ICC referral. The assumption that Russia tation of its own resolutions on Syria as well as from using its aerial capacity—P5 divisions would veto any e"ort specific to the govern- to prevent future aerial bombardment by the have made it impossible for the Council to ful- ment remains a deterrent. Any discussion of a government (without specifying how). fil its role in maintaining international peace Council-authorised no-fly zone is also a non- The focus on indiscriminate attacks and security in the case of Syria. While some starter among Council members, due to Rus- against civilians continued with an Arria- feel that such action might be the leverage the sia’s veto power but also because of the lack of formula meeting on 26 June and a briefing Council requires to shift the parties’ priorities US interest in pursuing this course of action. by Deputy Under-Secretary-General for towards a negotiated solution, the Council has On the political track, Council members Humanitarian A"airs Kyung-wha Kang that a history of not escalating pressure in the midst assume de Mistura will likely want to limit also focused on this issue during her 29 June of other sensitive processes, such as the P5+1 expectations about whether conditions on briefing to the Council. negotiations on the Iran nuclear file. the ground have shifted enough to untangle On the political track, de Mistura visited An option for Council members concerned what has become known as the “Assad knot” Damascus between 15 and 17 June. He met about the government’s continued use of enshrined in the Geneva Communiqué—i.e. with President Bashar al Assad and reportedly chlorine bombs would be to put forward a res- trying to find openings between Iran’s and raised the issue of barrel bombs with govern- olution determining that Syria has breached Russia’s support for the Assad regime and the ment o!cials. He is expected to report back to resolutions 2118 and 2209 and impose tar- position of the P3 and their Arab allies that the Council in late July on the UN-facilitated geted sanctions. Given that chlorine is deliv- Assad must go. Council members acknowl- consultations launched in Geneva on 5 May. ered in barrel bombs, such an outcome could edge that the Geneva consultations may be These consultations were convened to find be an opportunity to address the broader and little more than a place holder until there is areas of commonality for implementing the more pervasive issue of aerial bombardment a major shift on the part of the US or Russia Geneva Communiqué, a political transition and indiscriminate attacks on civilians that to tilt the balance toward a political solution. plan agreed in June 2012 that has been contin- was addressed in resolution 2139. On the chemical weapons track, fun- ually stymied over the role of Assad and Iran’s Another option is to follow up on the US damental di"erences remain. The US has support for the regime, and has been further suggestion for an “attribution mechanism” maintained that it views resolution 2209 to complicated by the presence of ISIS in Syria. on the use of chemical weapons since resolu- be a final warning to Damascus before con- tion 2209 was adopted in March. It seems the sequences are sought for its use of chlorine Human Rights-Related Developments US draft would give this task to the Secretary- bombs. Russia insists that the Council can- On 23 June, the head of the Human Rights Coun- General and would request the findings be not apportion blame to Damascus since only cil’s Commission of Inquiry on Syria, Paulo Pin- reported back to the Council. However, Rus- the OPCW has the capacity to fully assess heiro, reported that civilians are the main victims sia is opposed to such a mechanism and has the situation. While the OPCW fact-finding

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2015 securitycouncilreport.org 11 Syria (con’t) mission can investigate whether chlorine has France is the penholder on Syria over- most texts need to be agreed between Russia been used as a weapon, its mandate prohibits all. Jordan, New Zealand and Spain lead on and the US prior to seeking agreement by the it from attributing responsibility. humanitarian issues. In practice, however, broader Council.

Somalia and Eritrea

Expected Council Action camp in Leego on 26 June. Council members meeting was substantive and two hours long, In July, the Special Representative of the Sec- condemned both attacks in press statements. its e"ectiveness regarding future planning retary-General and head of the UN Assistance Kay and Maman Sidikou, Special Repre- was perhaps reduced by the delayed release Mission in Somalia (UNSOM), Nicholas Kay, sentative of the Chairperson of the AU Com- of the joint AU-UN report that was intended is expected to brief the Council. A resolution mission and head of AMISOM, briefed the to inform the discussion. renewing the mandate of UNSOM, which Council via video teleconference on 19 May. expires 7 August, is scheduled for adoption. Kay spoke on the 12 May Secretary-General’s Sanctions-Related Developments Additionally, Ambassador Rafael Ramírez report on UNSOM, while Sidikou previewed On 1 May, the 751/1907 Somalia-Eritrea Sanctions Committee held a meeting regarding maritime (Venezuela), chair of the 751/1907 Soma- the findings and recommendations of a forth- interdiction of illegal charcoal exports and illicit lia-Eritrea Sanctions Committee, will brief coming AU-UN report requested in resolution arms imports. Resolution 2182, which authorised Council members in consultations on the 2182. The report, based on a joint assessment the maritime interdiction, stipulated a review with- work of the Committee since his last 120- mission from 14 to 25 April, concerns bench- in six months of adoption on 24 October 2014. day briefing. marks for UN peacekeeping, the AMISOM The coordinator of the Somalia and Eritrea Moni- troop surge authorised in resolution 2124 Maritime Forces conducting anti-piracy opera- Key Recent Developments and future military strategy in Somalia. It was Al-Shabaab continues to be active in Soma- due 30 May but delayed one month, appar- Drugs and Crime attended the meeting. Options lia and Kenya. On 13 May, Al-Shabaab kid- ently because of consultations with AMISOM discussed at the meeting include either updating napped 14 Iranian fishermen whose boat troop-contributing countries. On 26 May, the the implementation assistance notice regarding charcoal issued on 7 May 2014 or drafting a sec- washed ashore in the Galgugud region of cen- Council adopted resolution 2221, extending ond implementation assistance notice. tral Somalia. On 23 May, at least 45 people the mandate of UNSOM until 7 August. This were killed in fighting in the Lower Shabelle rollover was meant to enable the Council to Muslim cleric listed since 28 July 2011 under the region south of Mogadishu when Al-Shabaab first consider the findings and recommenda- 751/1907 Somalia-Eritrea sanctions regime for launched a surprise attack on government tions of the AU-UN report, particularly with recruiting and fundraising for Al-Shabaab, and forces. According to a local government o!- respect to UNSOM’s mandate. who had been arrested on 18 April for allegedly cial, the casualties included 26 Al-Shabaab On 8 June, Council members met in an fighters and 19 government soldiers. On 25 informal interactive dialogue on AMISOM trial is scheduled for 30-31 July. May, Al-Shabaab attacked two police patrols with Sidikou and Kay. Under-Secretary-Gen- On 28 May, Al-Shabaab announced the death near Garissa, Kenya, and claimed to have eral for Field Support Atul Khare participated of Hassan Abdullah Hersi Al-Turki, a militia leader killed 25 policemen, while a police spokesman in the meeting, particularly with respect to the aligned with Al-Shabaab. Al-Turki was listed under the 751/1907 Somalia-Eritrea sanctions regime said 13 o!cers had gone missing. On 11 June, UN Support O!ce for AMISOM (UNSOA). on 12 April 2010. Al-Shabaab claims he died of an Ethiopian contingent of the AU Mission Council members discussed a wide range of natural causes, but his death has not been inde- in Somalia (AMISOM) and Somali Nation- issues related to AMISOM, including bench- al Army forces defending a convoy of relief marking for UN peacekeeping, a review of 751/1907 sanctions list have been reported as supplies clashed with Al-Shabaab in the Bay UNSOA’s operations, AMISOM’s sectors of dead: Aboud Rogo Mohammed (unknown gun- men, Nairobi, 27 August 2012); Omar Hammami region. According to AMISOM, the attack operation and whether they should be extend- by Al-Shabaab was repelled, and its forces ed to incorporate semi-autonomous Puntland, - were defeated in the battle. The insurgency, aspects of command and control for troop- men, Nairobi, 1 April 2014); and Ahmed Abdi Aw- however, claims to have killed 30 soldiers. Al- contributing countries, policing and potential Mohamed (US airstrike, Somalia, 1 September Shabaab attacked a humanitarian convoy in police-contributing countries, and allegations 2014). Mogadishu on 24 June and an AMISOM base of sexual exploitation and abuse. Although the

UN DOCUMENTS ON SOMALIA AND ERITREA Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2221 (26 May 2015) extended the mandate of UNSOM until 7 August 2015. S/RES/2182 (24 October 2014) reauthorised AMISOM, renewed sanctions measures and authorised maritime interdiction of illegal arms imports and charcoal exports. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7445Security Council Press Statements SC/11949 (27 June 2015) condemned Al-Shabaab’s attack on AMISOM. SC/11945 (25 June 2015) condemned Al-Shabaab’s attack on a humanitarian convoy in Mogadishu. Secretary-General’s Report S/2015/331 (12 May 2015) was a report on UNSOM. Human Rights Council Document A/HRC/29/42 (4 June 2015) was a report of the Commission of Inquiry on human rights in Eritrea. USEFUL ADDITIONAL RESOURCES Insult to Injury: the 2014 Lamu and Tana River Attacks and Kenya’s Abusive Response, Human Rights Watch, June 2015. Vanda Felbab-Brown, , in James Cockayne and Siobhan O’Neil (eds.), UN DDR in an Era of Violent Extremism: Is it Fit for Purpose? (United Nations University, 2015), 104-137.

12 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2015 Somalia and Eritrea (con’t)

Human Rights-Related Developments Options Council and Wider Dynamics The Commission of Inquiry on human rights in The implications of the joint AU-UN review Since the establishment of UNSOM just over Eritrea released a report on 8 June, documenting of AMISOM for UNSOM’s mandate will two years ago, policymaking regarding Soma- systematic, widespread and gross human rights violations committed under the authority of the gov- remain unclear until release of the report, lia has been more collaborative than conten- ernment, with some violations possibly constituting but a few options can nonetheless be inferred tious within the Security Council (with the crimes against humanity. The report details how the from preliminary discussions on 19 May and singular exception of the abstentions of Rus- government has created and sustained repressive 8 June: sia and Jordan on resolution 2182). Since the systems to control, silence, and isolate individu- • establishing joint UNSOM-AMISOM adoption of resolution 2124, which increased als, depriving them of their fundamental freedoms. Individuals are routinely arrested and detained arbi- operational planning and civilian pres- AMISOM’s authorisation from 17,731 to trarily, tortured, disappeared or executed extra-judi- ences in regional states of Somalia; 22,126 troops (and thus also increased the cially. According to the report, Eritreans are subject • expanding non-lethal support (current- number of troops eligible for salaries paid by to systems of national service and forced labour, ly provided by UNSOA to the Somali the EU and logistical support provided by the which “involves the systematic violation of an array National Army) to 3,000 Puntland troops UN), relations between the AU and UN have of human rights on a scope and scale seldom witnessed elsewhere in the world”. Although the and the Somali Police Force; also improved with respect to Somalia. How- Commission was unable to visit Eritrea, its report • requesting the Secretary-General to ever, underlying sources of tension may resur- - increase the operational capacity of the face within the context of how the UN Secu- missions. The report was presented to the Human UN Guard Unit, including a geograph- rity Council and the AU Peace and Security Rights Council on 23 June. ic expansion beyond Mogadishu to the Council respond to the forthcoming AU-UN regional states of Somalia; and report, particularly regarding the financial and Key Issues • modifying UNSOM’s “good o!ces” material resources provided to AMISOM for Regarding UNSOM, the principal focus will functions to include a specific reference military operations and the division of labour be on re-evaluating the special political mis- to mediating inter-ethnic and clan-based with UNSOM for civilian tasks. sion’s mandate while considering the findings violence. The US has shown greater engagement and recommendations of the forthcoming One option regarding sanctions, which is when US Secretary of State John Kerry made AU-UN report. apparently under consideration, would be a surprise visit to Somalia on 5 May. It was With respect to sanctions, implementation for the 751/1907 Somalia-Eritrea Commit- the first visit of a US secretary of state to of the partial arms embargo and the charcoal tee chair to visit the countries in the region, Somalia. export ban remains a challenge. Eritrea’s lack including Eritrea. The UK is the penholder on Somalia, and of cooperation with the Monitoring Group is Venezuela is chair of the 751/1907 Somalia- another long-standing issue. Eritrea Sanctions Committee.

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Expected Council Action Key Recent Developments violations committed during the month of In July, the Council will be briefed by Martin Rebel groups continue to spread violence in April 2015 (33 violations and 102 victims), Kobler, Special Representative of the Secre- eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo according to the UN Joint Human Rights tary-General and head of the UN Organiza- (DRC). A joint MONUSCO and Forces O!ce (UNJHRO). Other armed groups tion Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Armées de la République Démocratique du such as the Ugandan Islamist group Allied Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO). Congo (FARDC) o"ensive was launched Democratic Forces (ADF) and the Lord’s The Chair of the 1533 DRC Sanctions against the Force de résistance patriotique Resistance Army (LRA) remain active as well. Committee, Ambassador Dina Kawar (Jor- en Ituri (FPRI) from the Ngiti ethnic group Violence in North Kivu has led to 50,700 dan), will brief the Council on her May visit in Orientale Province on 3 June. In the first additional internally displaced people accord- to the region. 10 days of the o"ensive 34 militants and four ing to OCHA. MONUSCO’s mandate expires on 31 FARDC soldiers were killed. Of all the armed On 26 March, the Council adopted reso- March 2016. groups, the FRPI were reportedly responsi- lution 2211, which renewed the mandate of ble for the highest number of human rights MONUSCO, including its force intervention

UN DOCUMENTS ON THE DRC Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2211 (26 March 2015) renewed the mandate of MONUSCO, including its intervention brigade. S/RES/2198 (29 Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2015/1 (8 January 2015) reiterated the Security Council Press Statement SC/11883 Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7410 Sanctions Committee Documents SC/11815 (6 March 2015) was a press release about a meeting with the countries of the region. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS MONUSCO Force Commander Cruz (Brazil) MONUSCO Size, Composition and Cost of Mission 20,878 troops (including 473 military observers and 1,113 police), 889 international civilian (1 July 2014-30 June 2015): $1.46 billion July 2010 to present.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2015 securitycouncilreport.org 13 Democratic Republic of the Congo (con’t) brigade (FIB), until 31 March 2016. MONUS- for in resolution 2211 is proceeding success- MONUSCO and the government, which is CO is authorised to “carry out targeted o"en- fully and that currently a joint security assess- crucial for the overall success of the mission. sive operations through the FIB in cooperation ment was being consolidated. In particular, the breakdown in cooperation with the whole of MONUSCO,” either unilat- against the FDLR is an immediate concern. erally or jointly with the FARDC, to neutralise Sanctions-Related Developments Follow-up on the information gathered armed groups. The resolution asks MONUS- On 6 March, the 1533 DRC Sanctions Committee and the interaction in the region during the CO to maximise its inter-operability, flexibility Chair’s visit is an important issue for the and e"ectiveness in the implementation of its of the Congo (S/2015/19) with the representatives Sanctions Committee. mandate. (The report of the Secretary-Gen- of Angola (who in addition to attending the meet- eral on the strategic review of MONUSCO, ing as a Council member was also representing Options requested by the Council, contained criticism The DRC has not been the focus of Coun- Region), Burundi, DRC, Rwanda, South Africa, regarding the poor performance of some of cil members’ attention since the adoption - MONUSCO’s contingents, recommended tee members and these countries for priorities to of resolution 2211, but Council members a more proactive approach and called for all focus on during her visit to the region. During the may wish to adopt a statement reiterating contingents to show willingness to use force meeting, a representative of the UN Mine Action the need for the DRC’s full cooperation with to protect civilians [S/2014/957].) MONUSCO and, in particular, for a signifi- to assist the DRC authorities in the management Following the calls by the DRC for a sig- cant joint operation to eliminate the FDLR and storage of arms and ammunition. nificant withdrawal of troops, the resolution threat. It may also welcome receiving the con- endorsed the recommendations made in the - clusions of the joint strategic dialogue. strategic review, downsizing the mission by tee Chair to do so. She focused on receiving In the Sanctions Committee, the mem- 2,000 troops. The resolution notes that this bership may consider further designations reduction will become “permanent” once against individuals, as designations have not sanctions regime. The visit also followed up on significant progress in the DRC is achieved, requests for capacity-building, discussed on 6 been made since December 2012. including in fighting the Forces démocra- March in the Committee. An issue raised during tiques de libération du Rwanda (FDLR). the visit was that there has been little success in Council and Wider Dynamics (The DRC continues to operate unilaterally curbing the illegal smuggling of natural resources. During the negotiations on resolution 2211, against the group as MONUSCO will not New Zealand suggested including a request new designations by the Committee might be cooperate with the FARDC generals leading useful. to receive informal briefings on the work of the operation, who are suspected of human The Committee will receive a report from the intervention brigade in neutralising armed rights abuses, in accordance with the UN - groups. Several Council members agreed that human rights due-diligence policy.) The res- due to the uniqueness of the brigade’s mandate, olution further encourages the DRC to enter a more hands-on approach and close moni- into a strategic dialogue with MONUSCO to Human Rights-Related Developments toring by the Council is warranted. However, develop a joint road map for an exit strategy. The UNJHRO published a report on 14 May, detail- others thought that including such a request ing grave violations of international humanitarian Starting in April, Council members and in the resolution would result in a rigid sched- law committed by combatants of the ADF against troop-contributing countries have been receiv- - ule of formal briefings that would not add val- ing monthly updates at the expert-level from ince, between 1 October and 31 December 2014. ue to current reporting. As a compromise, it the Secretariat on MONUSCO and the FIB. The violations may amount to war crimes and was agreed that Council members and troop- The third such update meeting was on 10 June, crimes against humanity. The UNJHRO was able contributing countries will receive informal during which Council members and TCCs monthly updates at the expert-level from the 237 civilians, including at least 65 women and 35 were briefed by the DPKO Team Leader for children, the injury of 47 civilians, the rape of two Secretariat on the intervention brigade. Fol- the Great Lakes Integrated Operational Team, others, the kidnapping of at least 20 civilians, the lowing three such briefings thus far, the general Herve Lecoq. Lecoq informed them that coop- recruitment of children and the looting and sys- consensus among members is that these meet- eration with the FARDC regarding the FDLR tematic destruction of dozens of houses during ings have been informative and helpful. this period. The report also refers to allegations is still at an impasse. Apparently, the FDLR has Council members continue to be con- that members of the FARDC were involved in retaken some positions from the FARDC, and grave human rights and humanitarian law viola- cerned about the need to neutralise the only a minimal number of FDLR fighters have tions, including the extrajudicial execution of 15 FDLR, and what so far appears to be a lack- surrendered, mainly child soldiers. On other civilians. According to the report, the civilian pop- lustre e"ort by the FARDC to engage with fronts, he noted some cooperation between ulation in Beni remains extremely vulnerable to the FDLR. However, they are encouraged by MONUSCO and the FARDC in operations attacks, and the threat has now extended to the the resumption of cooperation between the Irumu territory, also in eastern DRC, where viola- against the ADF in North Kivu and success- tions committed by ADF combatants have been DRC and MONUSCO on some issues, after ful cooperation in operations against the FRPI. reported since the beginning of 2015. a complete breakdown in communication at This latter operation involves the participation the beginning of the year. of non-FIB contingents, in accordance with There also seems to be a general agree- MONUSCO’s attempt to become more proac- Key Issues ment that the monthly informal updates by tive in its overall operations. Lecoq also noted An ongoing issue is the continuing ten- DPKO have been a useful exercise in pro- that the strategic dialogue with the DRC called sion in the working relationship between viding up-to-date and reasonably detailed

14 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2015 Democratic Republic of the Congo (con’t) information to Council members on the oper- members and the troop-contributing coun- France is the penholder on the DRC. ations of MONUSCO and the FIB. It is also tries to inquire and interact with DPKO and proving to be a useful platform for Council each other about MONUSCO operations.

Cyprus

Expected Council Action forward and called on both leaders to “seize manner while the negotiating teams continue In July, the Council is expected to renew the this opportunity to achieve tangible progress to work on specific issues and make prepa- mandate of the UN Peacekeeping Force in towards a comprehensive settlement that rations for the next meeting of the leaders. Cyprus (UNFICYP) for another six months would clearly benefit both Greek Cypriots Regarding the confidence-building measures, ahead of its 31 July expiry. Lisa Buttenheim, and Turkish Cypriots”. the leaders defined the mandate of the new- Special Representative and head of mis- On 23 May, leading up to their next for- ly established committee on gender equality sion, will likely brief on the latest UNFICYP mal meeting, Anastasiades and Akinci met in and appointed its members. report. Special Adviser Espen Barth Eide is the divided city of Nicosia, where they walked expected to brief on the progress in the nego- through both sides of the city. The leaders Key Issues tiations between Greek and Turkish Cypriots. used this opportunity to send a strong mes- In addition to renewing UNFICYP’s man- sage of peace and optimism ahead of the date, the main issue for the Council remains Key Recent Developments continuation of unification talks. This was how to help maintain the current momentum The political environment surrounding the the first time that Greek Cypriot and Turkish and facilitate a more substantial process of unification talks in Cyprus has changed sig- Cypriot leaders spent time together interact- unification talks between Greek Cypriot and nificantly in the past three months. Following ing on both sides of Nicosia. Turkish Cypriot leaders. runo" elections on 26 April, Mustafa Akinci In their second meeting on 28 May, the In the absence of significant progress for was elected the new leader of Turkish Cypri- leaders agreed to intensify the negotiations more than 50 years since the mission was ots after overwhelmingly defeating incumbent and set the dates for their next four meetings, established, a recurring issue for the Coun- Dervis Eroglu. Akinci is considered a moder- which will be held by the end of July. Lead- cil is whether to consider reconfiguring and ate and, according to his campaign platform, ing up to this meeting between Anastasiades downsizing the mission. a leader who would seek peace and reconcili- and Akinci, the negotiating teams met five ation with Greek Cypriots. times in an e"ort to find comprehensive Options The unification talks had come to a halt understanding on the positions of both sides. The most likely option for the Council is to in October 2014 when Greek Cypriot leader The leaders agreed to put particular emphasis renew UNFICYP’s mandate in its current Nicos Anastasiades unilaterally decided to on the issue of missing persons. In addition, configuration for another six months. suspend the talks due to Turkey’s decision to they agreed on five concrete steps: working to Another option is for the Council to recog- conduct o"shore seismic surveys in Cyprus’ open more crossing points, interconnecting nise the current positive atmosphere resulting exclusive economic zone. Turkey’s actions the electricity grids, making mobile telephone from the resumption of unification talks and were a reaction to the decision by the Greek networks interoperable, working on the pre- add a sense of urgency to the issue by empha- Cypriot Republic to start issuing oil explo- vention of radio frequency interferences and sising that this process cannot be open-ended ration licenses to foreign companies without establishing a committee on gender equal- considering that UNFICYP has been present taking into account Turkish Cypriots’ claims ity. As a part of confidence-building mea- for more than 50 years. that o"shore natural resources should benefit sures that would benefit both communities Should there be tangible progress in nego- both communities on the island. Anastasia- in Cyprus, the leaders agreed to open two tiations, the Council could consider issuing des and Akinci met on 15 May, marking the new crossing points, in Lefka and Dherynia. a press or presidential statement welcoming resumption, after more than seven months of The leaders met for the third time on 17 the progress. stalemate, of the unification talks. June, when they reviewed the progress made Ahead of this month’s renewal of the by the negotiators. They agreed to enter Council Dynamics UNFICYP mandate, Council members are into substantive negotiations on unresolved Cyprus has been a low-intensity issue on the likely to view the situation on the ground in issues of governance, property, territory and Council’s agenda, followed closely by only a Cyprus with a degree of optimism. On 15 security. The substantive negotiations will be few Council members, such as France, Rus- May, Council members issued a press state- based on the convergences and divergences sia and the UK. There seems recently to be ment welcoming the resumption of the talks. identified by the negotiating teams. At the increased interest by the US in finding a solu- Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon commend- meeting, Anastasiades and Akinci agreed to tion to the Cyprus problem. ed the commitment of the leaders to move focus on negotiations in a comprehensive Russia tends to support the Greek Cypriot

UN DOCUMENTS ON CYPRUS Security Council Resolution S/RES/2197 (29 January 2015) renewed UNFICYP. Security Council Press Statement SC/11894 (15 May 2015) welcomed the resumption of the Cyprus settlement talks.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2015 securitycouncilreport.org 15 Cyprus (con’t) position that the Council should not impose expressed their dissatisfaction at the way the In 2012 and 2013, then members of the Coun- any conditions or timeframe on the negotia- negotiations of the draft were conducted by the cil Azerbaijan and Pakistan, who were promi- tions. The UK and other Council members, penholder (the UK). Russia seemed concerned nently sympathetic to the Turkish Cypriot side, frustrated by the longevity of the process and by the way unification talks were addressed in abstained on UNFICYP resolutions citing the mission, are of the view that negotiations the draft as well as the delayed consultations on disagreement over both substance and proce- should be encouraged further by applying the draft resolution. In the recent past, resolu- dure. Considering the positive political envi- some form of pressure on both sides. tions renewing the UNFICYP mandate were ronment in Cyprus at the moment, it is likely Though the Council adopted the last not always adopted unanimously. Turkey cast that negotiations of the current draft will be UNFICYP resolution in January unanimous- negative votes on the UNFICYP resolutions less contentious. ly, several members, most notably Russia, during its Council membership in 2009-2010.

Iraq

Expected Council Action parliament approved the draft national guard strategies. In late April, Abadi criticised a bill In July, Special Representative Ján Kubiš will law—envisioned as a way for the government in the US Congress to directly arm Sunni and brief the Council on the Secretary-General’s to arm Sunni fighters against ISIS—but the Kurdish fighters, bypassing the Shi’a-led gov- reports on the UN Assistance Mission for exclusion of former Baath party members ernment in Baghdad, as an attempt to further Iraq (UNAMI) and on Iraq’s compliance from public service has stalled the legislation.) divide Iraq along sectarian lines. The US said with resolution 1284 regarding the repatria- Three days after the briefing by Kubiš, it supported a unified Iraq and that military tion or return of Kuwaiti missing persons or Ramadi fell to ISIS as government forces assistance is delivered through the govern- property. UNAMI’s mandate, which expires fled, leaving behind US-supplied military ment. (The draft provision was inserted into on 31 July, will likely be renewed for a year. equipment. There were subsequent reports a bill authorising funding to train Iraqi forces. that Iraqi authorities were blocking civilians There were concerns that Baghdad was with- Key Recent Developments fleeing Ramadi from entering Baghdad. On 8 holding weapons from Kurdish peshmerga The surprise takeover of Mosul by the Islamic June, Under-Secretary-General for Humani- forces. Baghdad has also been reluctant to State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) over a year tarian A"airs Stephen O’Brien visited Iraq in provide arms to Sunni fighters in provinces ago has led to a widespread protection crisis his first mission as the new head of OCHA. controlled by ISIS.) that, according to UN o!cials, has left Iraq He urged the government to ensure freedom Baghdad relies upon US airpower, but on the “verge of collapse”. Valerie Amos, the of movement for all Iraqis fleeing violence. control on the ground has been sustained then-head of OCHA, briefed the Council on The fall of Ramadi spurred the US-led by the Kurdish peshmerga and Shi’a militias 14 May, reporting that three million people anti-ISIS coalition to meet in Paris on 2 June. known as the popular mobilisation forces, were internally displaced and 8.2 million peo- Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi attend- which are widely believed to be supported ple required assistance, an increase of three ed and argued for more help to fight the well- and directed by Tehran. Regarding the pesh- million in five months. According to OCHA, equipped and well-organised ISIS. In addi- merga, the US had hoped they would even- needs over the past year have grown by nearly tion to arms, he requested more intelligence tually help Iraqi forces retake Mosul. But 400 percent. and surveillance support. Many of the West- Kurds have focused on defending their semi- Kubiš also briefed on 14 May and said ern members of the coalition said there was autonomous provinces from further ISIS that for military gains against ISIS to hold, no military solution without a political one, encroachment rather than participating in a the government would have to restore civilian and suggested that reclaiming territory from broader o"ensive against ISIS. Meanwhile, authority in areas liberated from ISIS—a ref- ISIS could not be done without the Sunni the US fears that Iraq’s use of Shi’a militias erence to the Sunni western provinces, which population joining the fight alongside the in Sunni areas stokes sectarian tension, deep- have a strained relationship with the Shi’a-led Iraqi Army (which is majority Shi’a). Abadi ens the distrust of the Shi’a-led government government in Baghdad. Kubiš welcomed said Iraq would like to purchase arms from among Sunni leaders in the western prov- the government’s commitment to exert con- Iran and Russia. France and the US agreed to inces and entrenches support for ISIS. The trol over all elements taking part in liberation send more weapons, such as anti-tank rock- air support provided by the US-led coalition operations across Iraq (a reference to Shi’a ets powerful enough to counter ISIS’s use of has been conditioned on the withdrawal of militias). He also welcomed the extension of armoured trucks as suicide vehicles. Shi’a militias. However, Abadi has not been Iraq’s parliamentary session so that lawmak- The US agreed to send more trainers and able to exert the same level of control over ers could continue to discuss de-Baathification weapons despite ongoing tension between the deployment of Shi’a militias in Sunni and a proposed national guard. (In February, Baghdad and Washington over anti-ISIS western provinces as he did prior to the fall

UN DOCUMENTS ON IRAQ Security Council Resolution S/RES/2169 (30 July 2014) renewed UNAMI for a year. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7443 (14 May 2015) was the Secretary-General’s Reports S/2015/305 (1 May 2015) was the UNAMI report. S/2015/298 property report.

16 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2015 Iraq (con’t) of Ramadi. While some Sunni fighters rec- Options UNAMI’s mandate, which they believe is ognise the e"ectiveness of the Shi’a militias UNAMI’s mandate has not significantly broad enough and flexible enough to allow against ISIS, they remain unconvinced that changed since the adoption of resolution Kubiš to fulfil the mission’s good o!ces role. their deployment will lead to stabilisation in 1770 in 2007. One option is to adopt a reso- Despite a flurry of activity in the latter areas recaptured from ISIS. lution that renews the existing mandate with- half of 2014 in response to the spread of ISIS, out adjustment. Council members have quickly reverted to a Human Rights-Related Developments Although UNAMI is a political mission not “wait-and-see” mode on Iraq. Except through On 15 May, the special rapporteur on the human equipped to address the various and very seri- the lens of counter-terrorism, Council mem- rights of internally displaced persons (IDPs) ous security issues, another option is to adopt bers have been unable to approach the con- to assist IDPs and give them higher priority. IDPs a resolution mandating UNAMI to provide nected crises in Iraq and Syria holistically. It from all ethnic and religious communities are sur- better capacity to address the inter-relation- is likely that they will continue to treat the viving in precarious conditions, often under the ship of the crises in Iraq and Syria, support two situations as discrete issues. Condemn- threat of violence and further displacement and the establishment of a more inclusive political ing the Tehran-backed regime in Damascus is without adequate shelter, healthcare, food and system and facilitate a humanitarian response. di!cult to reconcile with supporting the Teh- water. Meanwhile, the situation of hundreds of thousands of IDPs living in areas controlled by The resolution renewing UNAMI could ran- and US-backed government in Baghdad. ISIS is unclear and deeply worrying. explicitly call for the government to work Similarly, the Council has been less direct- towards enhanced security and humanitar- ly engaged in grappling with the underlying Key Issues ian coordination with the Kurdistan Region- political divisions among Iraq’s Shi’a, Sunni The key issue for the Council is support- al Government and Sunni leaders. In the and Kurdish populations except for bland ing a genuinely inclusive government. In resolution, the Council could also condemn calls for an inclusive government. For exam- this regard, an issue is determining how the human rights violations by ISIS and associated ple, Council members have yet to directly Council and UNAMI can encourage greater armed groups (an indirect reference to former condemn violations by Iraqi security forces or cooperation on security and humanitarian Baathists and Sunni tribal leaders) as well as militias. This trend will likely continue given issues between the dominant Shi’a Dawa by Iraqi security forces and associated armed the degree to which the US seeks Iraq’s agree- party of Abadi and Kurdish and Sunni par- groups (an indirect reference to Shi’a militias). ment prior to Council outcomes on Iraq. liamentarians and thereby build confidence The Council could invite Special Repre- Council members France, Jordan, Lithua- in the central government and fortify Iraq’s sentative on Sexual Violence Zainab Bangura nia, New Zealand, Spain, the UK and the US response to ISIS. to brief alongside Kubiš on her recent visit to are part of the anti-ISIS coalition—though Another issue is how to address the mutu- the region, which included Iraq. not all directly participate in air strikes. ally destabilising impact of the war in Syria The US is the penholder on Iraq issues and the Iraq crisis. Council Dynamics in general, and the UK is the penholder on Council members uniformly support Iraq-Kuwait issues.

Israel/Palestine

Expected Council Action According to the 22 June report of the Inde- artillery shells, while Palestinian armed groups In July, the Council will hold its quarterly pendent Commission of Inquiry established by fired 4,881 rockets and 1,753 mortars towards open debate on the Middle East, with a focus the Human Rights Council (HRC), the scale Israel. Israel condemned the inquiry as biased on the situation in Israel/Palestine. New Zea- of the devastation in Gaza was unprecedented, and released its own report on the conflict on land’s Minister of Foreign A"airs, Murray with substantial evidence pointing to serious 14 June, concluding that its military acted law- McCully, is expected to preside. violations of international humanitarian law fully and that 761 Palestinian civilians were and international human rights law by Israel killed in Gaza. Key Recent Developments and Palestinian armed groups, which in some According to the Secretary-General’s sum- This July marks one year since the most recent cases may amount to war crimes. A total of mary of the Board of Inquiry report into cer- round of conflict between Palestinian armed 2,251 Palestinians were killed, including 1,462 tain incidents a"ecting UN Relief and Works groups and Israeli forces, and the launch of Palestinian civilians, and 11,231 Palestinians Agency (UNWRA) schools, at least 44 Pales- Israel’s military operation in Gaza, from 7 were injured. In Israel, six civilians and 67 sol- tinians were killed and 227 injured at seven July to 26 August 2014, which resulted in the diers were killed, and up to 1,600 were injured. UNWRA schools that were used as emergency worst escalation of hostilities in Gaza since The report states that the Israel Defense Forc- shelters, as a result of Israeli actions during 1967. Various UN reports on the conflict have es carried out more than 6,000 airstrikes in the 2014 conflict. The report also found that recently been released. Gaza and fired approximately 50,000 tank and Hamas militants had endangered UN facilities

UN DOCUMENTS ON ISRAEL/PALESTINE Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.7470S/PV.7430 (21 April 2015) was the regular quarterly open debate on the Middle East.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2015 securitycouncilreport.org 17 Israel/Palestine (con’t)

by storing weapons in three empty schools. responsibility for launching at least two rock- The Secretary-General’s annual report on ets into Israel on 3 June and said it would not absence of a comprehensive policy and strategy children and armed conflict released on 5 June abide by an informal truce agreed between on children that includes all issues covered by the - found that during the conflict at least 540 Pal- Hamas and Israel after the 2014 hostilities in geting children in vulnerable and marginalised sit- estinian children were killed and 2,955 were Gaza. In response, Israel Air Force jets struck uations and the need to establish an independent injured. At least 262 schools, 274 kindergar- three “terror infrastructure” targets in Gaza on mechanism to monitor and evaluate progress tens and 17 hospitals in Gaza were damaged, 4 June. Hamas has also initiated a crackdown under the Convention and the Optional Protocols. while three schools were damaged in Israel. against ISIS sympathisers in Gaza. The HRC considered the Commission of Inqui- ry’s report on 29 June. In its statement, Palestine According to the report, the total number of At press time, a delegation from the O!ce said it will work to adopt the report’s recommen- children killed in 2014 in Palestine (557) was of the Prosecutor (OTP) of the ICC was dations. Israel did not make a statement. the third highest after Afghanistan and Iraq reportedly due to arrive in Israel as part of a and ahead of Syria and Darfur. The total num- preliminary examination of the situation in ber of schools damaged or destroyed in Pal- Palestine, announced by the OTP on 16 Janu- Key Issues estine (at least 543) was the highest recorded ary, to establish whether criteria for opening The overarching issue is determining how to number in all situations in 2014. The report a formal investigation had been met, follow- move forward on a two-state solution in light concludes, “The unprecedented and unac- ing Palestine’s acceptance on 1 January of the of the April 2014 breakdown of US-brokered ceptable scale of the impact on children in jurisdiction of the ICC over alleged crimes negotiations. 2014 raises grave concerns about Israel’s com- committed in the Occupied Palestinian Ter- Other key issues include: pliance with international humanitarian law, ritories, including East Jerusalem, since 13 • Israel’s settlement expansion in the West notably the principles of distinction, propor- June 2014. Palestine’s Foreign Minister, Riad Bank, which undermines prospects for tionality and precaution in attack, and respect Malki, travelled to The Hague on 25 June to peace; for international human rights law, particularly present reports to the OTP focusing on Israeli • reconstruction in Gaza, which needs to be in relation to excessive use of force.” Despite settlement construction and the hostilities in facilitated and accelerated; and these findings, neither Israel nor Hamas were Gaza last year. The government of Palestine • alleged war crimes committed in Gaza included in the annex to the report, which lists acceded to the Rome Statute on 2 January during last summer’s conflict, which need parties that, among other crimes, kill or maim and became a member of the ICC on 1 April. to be investigated, with measures to ensure children or attack schools or hospitals in situ- The Security Council last met on the issue accountability. ations of armed conflict. on 24 June, when Under-Secretary-General The situation in Gaza remains desperate. for Political A"airs Je"rey Feltman briefed, Options According to a World Bank report presented remarking that the recent rea!rmations by One option is to revisit the idea of adopt- to the Ad Hoc Liaison Committee (a forum Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanya- ing a resolution outlining parameters for a of donors to the Palestinian Authority) on 27 hu of his commitment to a two-state solu- final status agreement, an initiative that has May, Gaza’s economy is “on the verge of col- tion must be translated into action, includ- been brewing behind the scenes among some lapse”. The current unemployment rate is the ing a halt to unilateral activities in the West Council members for a while. highest in the world, at 44 percent (11 per- Bank where homes continued to be demol- Another option would be to explore other centage points higher than before July 2014). ished. Feltman also expressed hope that the Council outcomes that could help advance The youth unemployment rate is 60 percent, Commission of Inquiry’s report would con- prospects for a negotiated settlement. and 40 percent of Gaza’s nearly 1.8 million tribute to bringing justice to victims of the Palestinians are living in poverty, even though 2014 conflict. Council Dynamics around 80 percent receive some sort of aid. Some Council members, such as France, Jor- There has been limited progress in rebuilding Human Rights-Related Developments dan and the UK, have been involved since Gaza since the blockade was put into e"ect The special rapporteur on the situation of human late last year in e"orts to negotiate a reso- rights in the Palestinian territories, Makarim Wibi- in 2007. Last summer’s conflict exacerbated lution that sets parameters for a final status sono, issued a statement on 5 June reiterating the lack of rebuilding e"orts. According to his call for the Israeli government to abandon and agreement. On 30 December 2014, a draft UNWRA, not a single one of the 9,117 totally desist from implementing plans that might result resolution calling for an end to the Israeli destroyed homes in Gaza has been rebuilt. in the forcible transfer of Palestinian Bedouin occupation of the Occupied Palestinian Ter- In the West Bank, increased confrontations communities in the West Bank. The special rap- ritories by the end of 2017, failed to pass porteur told the HRC in March that an estimated between Palestinian demonstrators and Israeli with five members abstaining and two vot- forces continue, as do settlement expansion are children. In June, Israel blocked a visit to the ing against, including the US. Since the start and the forced displacement of Palestinians in Palestinian territories by Wibisono for a second of this year, movement on any further out- Area C and in East Jerusalem. After a period time. come was stalled due to US insistence that of relative calm, the beginning of June saw an On 10 June, the Committee on the Rights of the Council should not act until after Israel’s the Child published its concluding observations increase in sporadic rocket fire from Gaza into election. Currently, Council members seem on the report submitted by Israel (CRC/C/OPSC/ Israel, with no casualties reported. A group of ISR/CO/1). The Committee voiced concern that to be in agreement to wait until the anticipat- Palestinian militants, known as the Omar Bri- Israel did not provide information and data on ed conclusion of the Iran nuclear deal and US gades, a group that identifies with the Islam- children living in the Occupied Palestinian Terri- Congressional approval of that deal before ic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), claimed tory, including East Jerusalem, and the Occupied reintroducing such an initiative.

18 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2015 Israel/Palestine (con’t)

It is generally accepted that the fate of Recent developments between Israel and the posture towards action on the issue. How- any Council outcome on Israel/Palestine lies US, particularly the fallout over Netanyahu’s ever, some members remain sceptical about ultimately with the US, which has histori- pre-election comments repudiating a two- whether this rhetoric will translate into con- cally used its veto to protect Israeli interests. state solution could signal a shift in the US’s crete action in the Council.

Security Challenges for Small Island Developing States

Expected Council Action stability “including illicit weapons and drug and Spain were expecting to hold an Arria-for- In July, the Council will hold an open debate tra!cking, piracy and armed robbery at sea, mula meeting on 30 June on the role of climate on the peace and security challenges facing as well as terrorism”. Although most of the change as a threat multiplier for global security. small island developing states (SIDS). New Council’s attention to this matter has focused The concept note also outlines such issues Zealand’s Foreign Minister, Murray McCul- on the linkages between organised crime and as the vulnerabilities related to the achieve- ly, is expected to preside. Secretary-General terrorism, the concept note highlights the par- ment of inclusive development by SIDS and Ban Ki-moon, the prime ministers of Samoa ticular impact of this phenomenon on SIDS. their under-representation in the Council. and Jamaica and the finance minister of the Seychelles are likely to brief the Council. No Illicit exploitation of natural resources Key Issues outcome is expected following the debate. Thus far, the Council’s most common A key issue is to address the specific vulner- response to conflict related to natural abilities of SIDS in relation to international Background resources has been to authorise commodity peace and security. This will be the first open debate address- sanctions, which has had a limited preventive Another issue is to overcome Council divi- ing the specific challenges associated with role. Two open debates have taken place on sions when tackling issues such as climate this group of 52 countries and territories. As the linkages between natural resources and change or the illicit exploitation of natural highlighted by the concept note circulated conflict (in 2007 and 2013) The concept note resources. by New Zealand ahead of the open debate, outlines the challenges associated with illegal, the vulnerabilities of SIDS “are exacerbated unreported and unregulated fishing which in Council and Wider Dynamics by small size; remoteness; narrow resource, the past has been included in Council out- Although this will be the first meeting economic and export base; and exposure to comes on Somalia and Guinea-Bissau. addressing the challenges for SIDS related to global environmental challenges”. international peace and security, some of the The open debate comes after the third Climate change issues that are expected to be discussed, such UN conference on SIDS in October 2014 The Council tackled the issue of climate as climate change or the illicit exploitation of in Samoa. The outcome document outlined change in three open debates and an Arria- natural resources, have been di!cult for the a series of threats a"ecting peace and secu- formula meeting between 2007 and 2013. On Council to agree upon in the past. rity and the challenges these countries face 20 July 2011 the Council adopted a presiden- It seems that the scheduling of this open to respond to them e"ectively. Some of the tial statement expressing concern over the debate is New Zealand’s fulfilment of a com- threats expected to be raised by member states possible security implications of loss of terri- mitment it made during its campaign to are related to transnational crime and piracy, tory of some states caused by sea-level rise, in become an elected member of the Council. the illicit exploitation of natural resources, cli- particular in small low-lying island states. The In addition to increased awareness of specif- mate change and uneven development. statement noted the importance of including ic challenges that SIDS face, some of these conflict analysis and contextual information countries might raise the di!culties in imple- Transnational crime and piracy on the possible security implications of climate menting Council-imposed legal obligations A presidential statement adopted on 21 Feb- change in the Secretary-General’s reports that rely on member states to be e"ective on ruary 2012 under the presidency of Togo on when such issues are drivers of conflict, rep- such issues as the implementation of sanc- the impact of transnational organised crime resent a challenge to the implementation of tions and other counter-terrorism or non- in West Africa and the Sahel identified it as Council mandates or endanger the process of proliferation obligations. a serious threat to international peace and peace consolidation. At press time, Malaysia

UN DOCUMENTS ON SIDS SECURITY CHALLENGES Security Council Presidential Statements S/PRST/2012/2 (21 February 2012) was on the impact of transnational organised crime in West Africa and the Sahel Region. S/PRST/2011/15 (20 July 2011) was on climate change. S/PRST/2007/22 Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.6982S/PV.6668 on new challenges to international peace and security. S/PV.6587 (20 July 2011) was a meeting on the impact of climate change.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2015 securitycouncilreport.org 19 Notable Dates for July Ian Martin REPORT DUE REPORTS FOR CONSIDERATION IN JULY REQUESTING DOCUMENT Executive Director

Joanna Weschler 15 June S/RES/2205 Deputy Executive Director & Director of Research 25 June S/2013/759 Amanda Roberts Coordinating Editor & 26 June OPCW report on the implementation of S/RES/2118 Senior Research Analyst resolution 2118 (Syrian chemical weapons) Shamala Kandiah Thompson What’s in Blue Editor & Senior 29 June S/RES/2211 Research Analyst of the Congo) Astrid Forberg Ryan Senior Research Analyst & 29 June S/RES/2172 Victor Casanova Abos Research Analyst 6 July MENUB report (Burundi) S/RES/2137 S/PRST/2015/6 Charles Cater Research Analyst 10 July S/RES/1284 Dahlia Morched property Research Analyst & Communications Coordinator 10 July S/RES/2197 Paul Romita Research Analyst 13 July S/RES/2169 Eran Sthoeger Research Analyst 22 July S/RES/2139 Benjamin Villanti Research Analyst

MANDATES EXPIRE RELEVANT DOCUMENT Robbin VanNewkirk Publications Coordinator 15 July UNISFA (Abyei) S/RES/2205 Vladimir Sesar Research Associate 31 July UNFICYP (Cyprus) S/RES/2197 Lindiwe Knutson 31 July UNAMI (Iraq) S/RES/2169 Research Assistant Maritza Tenerelli 7 August UNSOM (Somalia) (mandate expires in August S/RES/2221 Administrative Assistant but will be renewed in July) Stevenson Swanson Editorial Consultant

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20 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2015