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May 2013 Monthly Forecast 2 Status Update since our Overview April Forecast 3 In Hindsight: Horizon Scanning Briefings Togo will preside over the Security Council in Peacebuilding Office in the Central African 4 Peace and Security in May. Republic (BINUCA); Africa Togo’s President Faure Essozimna Gnassingbé • the Secretary-General’s consolidated report on 5 Mali will preside over a debate on “Peace and Security Guinea-Bissau by the Special Representative in Africa: the challenges of the fight against terror- of the Secretary-General and head of the UN 7 Libya ism in Africa in the context of maintaining inter- Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea- 8 Guinea-Bissau national peace and security” with the Secretary- Bissau (UNIOGBIS) José Ramos-Horta; and 10 Democratic Republic of General providing a briefing. • the situation in the Middle East, by Under- the Congo The quarterly debate on Kosovo with a brief- Secretary-General for Political Affairs Jeffrey 12 Central African ing by Farid Zarif, the Special Representative of Feltman. Republic the Secretary-General and head of the UN Inter- Briefings in consultations are likely on: 13 UNOCA/LRA im Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), • developments in the Democratic Republic of 14 Sudan and South and the semi-annual debate on Bosnia-Herzegov- the Congo, by the Secretary-General’s Special Sudan ina, with a briefing by the High Representative Envoy Mary Robinson; Valentin Inzko, are also expected. • Sudan and South Sudan issues, twice, most 15 Sudan/Darfur Briefings are expected on: likely by, respectively, the Secretary General’s 17 Somalia • the work of the Organization for Security and Special Envoy Haile Menkerios and Assistant 18 Kosovo Cooperation in Europe by its Chairperson-in- Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Opera- 19 Bosnia and Office Leonid Kozhara; tions Edmond Mulet; Herzegovina • the work of the counterterrorism subsid- • the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei 20 Lebanon iary bodies—the 1267/1989 Al-Qaida Sanc- (UNISFA) by Mulet; 22 DPRK (North Korea) tions Committee; the 1373 Counter-Terror- • the implementation of resolution 1559, by ism Committee; and the 1540 Committee Special Envoy Terje Rød-Larsen; 24 Notable Dates on weapons of mass destruction—by their • Sudan sanctions, by the chair of the 1591 respective chairs, Ambassador Gary Quinlan Sudan Sanctions Committee Ambassador (Australia); Ambassador Mohammed Lou- María Cristina Perceval (Argentina); and lichki (Morocco); and Ambassador Kim Sook • the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (Republic of Korea); (DPRK) by the chair of the 1718 DPRK Sanc- • the Secretary-General’s report on the Lord’s tions Committee, Ambassador Sylvie Lucas Resistance Army and on the UN Regional (Luxembourg). Office for Central Africa (UNOCA) by Abou Formal sessions will need to be held to adopt Moussa, the Special Representative of the Sec- resolutions to: retary-General and head of UNOCA; and • establish a new UN assistance mission in • on the situation in Libya and the proceedings Somalia; of the International Criminal Court (ICC) by • renew the mandate of UNISFA; ICC Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda. • revise the mandate of BINUCA; and Briefings, followed by consultations, are likely on: • renew the mandate of UNIOGBIS. • the Secretary-General’s report on the inte- A wrap-up session in a private meeting is grated strategy for the Sahel by the Special planned by Togo at the end of the month. 1 May 2013 Envoy of the Secretary-General for the Sahel Throughout the month, Council members will This report is available online at securitycouncilreport.org. Romano Prodi; be following closely the developments in Syria, • the Secretary-General’s report and develop- and a meeting on this issue may be scheduled. • For daily insights by SCR on evolving Security Council actions please ments in the Central African Republic by Mar- subscribe to our “What’s In Blue” garet Vogt, the Secretary-General’s Special series at whatsinblue.org or follow @SCRtweets on Twitter. Representative and head of the UN Integrated Security Council Report Monthly Forecast May 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 1 Status Update since our April Forecast Afghanistan the root causes” (S/PV.6946). Louise Mushi- Peace and Security to consider the Secretary- On 4 April, the Council issued a press state- kiwabo, Minister for Foreign Affairs and General’s annual report on sexual violence in ment in which it condemned a terrorist Cooperation of Rwanda, presided. A concept conflict (S/2013/149) following a briefing by attack that occurred in Farah Province in the note for the briefing had previously been cir- the Secretary-General and Zainab Bangura, western part of Afghanistan, which caused culated as an annex to a letter to the Council his Special Representative on the issue (S/ numerous deaths and injuries, mainly to on 2 April (S/2013/204). The Council was PV.6948). In addition, Saran Keïta Diakité— civilians (SC/10967). briefed by Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon; the President of the Women, Peace and Secu- Tekeda Alemu, Permanent Representative of rity Network of the ECOWAS region, Mali— Yemen Ethiopia to the UN, representing the Chair- spoke on behalf of the New York-based On 4 April, Council members received a person of the AU; and Elliott Ohin, Minister NGO Working Group on Women, Peace briefing in consultations by the Secretary- for Foreign Affairs and Cooperation of Togo. and Security. There was no outcome follow- General’s Special Adviser on Yemen, Jamal The Council adopted a presidential state- ing the debate, however, Bangura said that Benomar, mainly on the National Dialogue ment at the conclusion of the meeting (S/ she hoped the Security Council would show Conference that opened on 18 March. On 12 PRST/2013/4). resolve in June 2013 and adopt a new resolu- April, the Council issued a press statement tion on sexual violence in conflict focused on welcoming Yemen’s reorganisation of the mil- Côte d’Ivoire accountability and prevention. itary and calling on “all parties to support On 16 April, the Council was briefed (S/ the President’s decrees and to work to ensure PV.6947) by Assistant Secretary-General Syria their prompt implementation,” (SC/10969). for Peacekeeping Edmond Mulet on the On 18 April, the Council received briefings Secretary-General’s special UNOCI report on the humanitarian situation in Syria from Western Sahara (S/2013/197). In the subsequent consulta- Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian On 11 April, the Council held a closed meet- tions, Council members also discussed the Affairs Valerie Amos, High Commissioner for ing with the troop and police-contributing final report of the Group of Experts assisting Refugees António Guterres, Special Repre- countries to MINURSO (S/PV.6945). On 22 the 1572 Côte d’Ivoire Sanctions Commit- sentative of the Secretary-General on Sexual April, the Special Representative of the Secre- tee (S/2013/228). On 25 April, the Coun- Violence in Conflict Zainab Bangura, and tary-General and head of MINURSO, Wolf- cil unanimously adopted resolution 2101, Special Representative of the Secretary-Gen- gang Weisbrod-Weber (Germany), and the renewing for a period of 12 months the sanc- eral on Children and Armed Conflict Leila Secretary General’s Personal Envoy for West- tions regime on Côte d’Ivoire and the man- Zerrougui (S/PV.6949). Amos described the ern Sahara, Christopher Ross (US), briefed date of the Group of Experts (S/PV.6953). situation in Syria as a “humanitarian catas- Council members in consultations on MIN- The resolution rolls over most of the mea- trophe”. Guterres asserted that the refugee URSO’s activities and recent developments sures in resolution 2045, namely an arms crisis had become an “existential threat” to since the Secretary-General’s latest report embargo, a ban on diamond exports and tar- some of Syria’s neighbors. Bangura detailed (S/2013/220). In his briefing Ross covered geted sanctions on a number of individuals. instances of sexual violence alleged against his visits to North Africa from 18 March to It also includes a change in the notification both the opposition and forces loyal to Syrian 3 April and from 8 to 11 April. On 25 April, system by which member states delivering President Bashar Al-Assad, adding that her Council members adopted resolution 2099 non-lethal law enforcement equipment to message to the perpetrators of such abuses and extended the mandate of MINURSO the Côte d’Ivoire security forces may notify is that “justice may be delayed, but it will for another year. A draft resolution prepared the Committee of any shipment to ensure not be denied”. Finally, Zerrougui drew the by the US, the penholder on Western Saha- the Committee keeps track of the material Council’s attention to the fact that more ra, had been discussed earlier by the Group delivered. than three million children inside Syria had of Friends of Western Sahara (France, Rus- been affected by the conflict, and more than sia, Spain, the UK and the US) and between Myanmar 600,000 children had been counted among the US and Morocco in bilateral consulta- On 16 April, Vijay Nambiar, the Secretary- the refugees in the subregion. Representa- tions. The initial draft apparently included General’s Special Adviser for Myanmar, tives of Syria, Lebanon and Turkey also made language giving MINURSO a mandate to briefed Council members in consultations. statements. Closed consultations followed monitor and gather information on human It was Nambiar’s first briefing to the Council the briefings, after which the Council Presi- rights violations and included a reference to since 20 June 2012. He had visited Myanmar dent read elements to the press at the media human rights monitoring in the camps near several times since then and updated Council stakeout in which Council members strongly Tindouf, Algeria, but by the time the draft members on the situation on the ground in condemned incidents of sexual violence and was distributed to all Council members, this Myanmar.
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