July 2015 Monthly Forecast 2 Status Update since Overview our June Forecast 4 Burundi New Zealand will hold the Council’s presidency in • humanitarian developments in Syria, by 5 Srebrenica July and is planning an open debate on the peace OCHA’s head, Stephen O’Brien; Anniversary and security challenges facing small island devel- • the political track in Syria, by Special Envoy 6 UN O!ce for West oping states, to be presided over by its Foreign Sta"an de Mistura; and Africa Minister, Murray McCully, with Secretary-Gen- • Iraq by Jan Kubiš, head of the UN Assistance eral Ban Ki-moon, the prime ministers of Samoa Mission for Iraq (UNAMI). 8 Sudan and South Sudan and Jamaica and the finance minister of the Sey- Briefings in consultations are planned on: chelles expected as briefers. There will also be the • chemical weapons in Syria, by High Represen- 9 Lebanon quarterly open debate on Israel/Palestine, with tative for Disarmament A"airs Kim Won-soo; 10 Syria Foreign Minister McCully presiding and a brief- • the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei ing by Special Coordinator Nickolay Mladenov. (UNISFA) by its head, Haile Tilahun 12 Somalia and Eritrea Briefings are expected: Gebremariam; 13 Democratic Republic • on Bosnia and Herzegovina, marking the 20th • the implementation of resolution 2046 on of the Congo anniversary of the genocide at Srebrenica and Sudan/South Sudan issues by Special Envoy 15 Cyprus other locations in the region, by Deputy Sec- Haile Menkerios; retary-General Jan Eliasson and High Com- • the implementation of resolution 1701 regard- 16 Iraq missioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra’ad Al ing Lebanon, by Special Coordinator Sigrid 17 Israel and Palestine Hussein; and Kaag and Assistant Secretary-General for 19 Security Challenges • possibly also on the Secretary-General’s most Peacekeeping Operations Edmond Mulet; for Small Island recent report on the protection of civilians in • the situation in Cyprus, by Lisa Buttenheim, Developing States armed conflict. head of the UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus Briefings, followed by consultations, are (UNFICYP), and Espen Barth Eide, the Sec- 20 Notable Dates expected on: retary-General’s Special Adviser on Cyprus; • the situation in Burundi, by High Commis- and sioner Al Hussein and Under-Secretary-Gen- • the work of the 751/1907 Somalia/Eritrea eral for Political A"airs Je"rey Feltman; Sanctions Committee by its chair, Ambassador • Libya by the head of the UN Support Mission Rafael Darío Ramírez Carreño (Venezuela). in Libya, Bernardino León, and by Ambassa- Formal sessions will be needed to adopt reso- dor Ramlan Ibrahim (Malaysia) on the work lutions to renew the mandates of: of the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee (post- • UNSOM in Somalia; poned from June); • UNISFA in Abyei; • the work of the UN O!ce for West Africa by its • UNAMI in Iraq; and head, Mohammed Ibn Chambas; • UNFICYP in Cyprus. • the work of the UN Assistance Mission in Throughout the month members will be following Somalia (UNSOM) by its head, Nicholas Kay; developments in South Sudan, Ukraine, Ye m e n , • Democratic Republic of the Congo by Martin the Boko Haram-a"ected areas of Africa and the Kobler, head of the UN Organization Stabi- migrant crisis, and additional meetings may be 1 July 2015 lization Mission in the DRC, and by Ambas- scheduled. The Council may also begin discus- This report is available online at sador Dina Kawar (Jordan) on the work of the sions of the reports by the panels reviewing UN securitycouncilreport.org. 1533 DRC Sanctions Committee; peace operations and UN peacebuilding. • For daily insights by SCR on evolving Security Council actions please subscribe to our “What’s In Blue” series at whatsinblue.org or follow @SCRtweets on Twitter. Security Council Report Monthly Forecast July 2015 securitycouncilreport.org 1 Status Updates since our June Forecast Yemen International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda June, the Council adopted resolution 2226 On 2 June, Council members issued a press (ICTR) in which the respective presidents and extending the mandate of UNOCI for an statement expressing disappointment that prosecutors of these bodies briefed, as well as additional year. the 28 May Geneva talks were postponed the president and prosecutor of the Interna- (SC/11915). The statement urged Yemeni tional Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tri- Sudan (Darfur) stakeholders to engage in talks without pre- bunals (S/PV.7455). The meeting focused on On 10 June, the Council held a briefing (S/ conditions and in good faith, and endorsed the completion strategy reports submitted by PV.7460), followed by consultations, on the the Secretary-General’s call for humani- both Tribunals (S/2015/340 and S/2015/342) situation in Darfur and the UNAMID report tarian pauses. The next day, Special Envoy and the report from the Residual Mechanism (S/2015/378). During the briefing, Assistant Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed (via video tele- (S/2015/341), the handover of activities to the Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Opera- conference) and Under-Secretary General Residual Mechanism, the need to find a satis- tions Edmond Mulet told the Council that for Humanitarian A"airs Stephen O’Brien factory solution to the relocation of persons there had been “limited progress in the peace briefed Council members on Yemen under released or acquitted by the ICTR and the process” and described the “devastating “any other business” in consultations. On need to ensure individuals indicted by the impact that the security situation…had on 18 June, Council members issued a press ICTR, but not yet arrested, are apprehended. innocent civilians”. On 29 June, the Council statement condemning the 17 June terrorist adopted resolution 2228 renewing the man- attacks in Sana’a (SC/11935). On 24 June, South Sudan date of UNAMID for an additional year. A Ould Cheikh Ahmed and OCHA Operations On 3 June, Council members issued a press closed Arria-formula meeting was held on 19 Director John Ging briefed Council mem- statement expressing concern with the deci- June on the human rights situation in Darfur, bers in consultations following the conclu- sion of the government of South Sudan on which was intended to mark the 10th anniver- sion of the Geneva talks. The next day, Coun- 29 May to expel Toby Lanzer, the UN Dep- sary of the Commission of Inquiry report on cil members issued a press statement taking uty Special Representative of the Secretary- Darfur, submitted to the Council on 31 Janu- note of the ‘principles’ for advancing UN- General/Resident Coordinator/Humanitarian ary 2005 (S/2005/60). Former Commission brokered consultations, and again endorsing Coordinator for UNMISS (SC/11916). In the member Hina Jilani; Abdelrahman Gasim of the Secretary-General’s call for humanitarian statement, Council members “condemned in the Darfur Bar Association; and Hawa Abdal- pauses (SC/11944). the strongest terms the repeated violations of la, an IDP camp leader and activist on wom- the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement.” en’s issues, briefed. ICC Prosecutor Fatou Iran Bensouda provided the semi-annual briefing The final report under resolution 2159 from Ukraine on the Court’s work with respect to Darfur on the Panel of Experts assisting the 1737 Iran On 5 June, the Council was briefed on the sit- 29 June (S/PV.7478). Sanctions Committee was issued as a pub- uation in Ukraine by Under-Secretary-Gen- lic document on 2 June (S/2015/401). On eral for Political A"airs Je"rey Feltman and UNOCA/LRA 9 June, the Security Council adopted reso- the Deputy Chief Monitor of the OSCE Spe- On 11 June, the Council was briefed by lution 2224, extending the mandate of the cial Monitoring Mission to Ukraine, Alexan- Special Representative Abdoulaye Bathily Panel for another 13 months until 9 July der Hug (S/PV.7457). Lithuania requested on the UNOCA report (S/2015/339) and 2016. On 23 June the chair of the Committee, the meeting following the significant increase the implementation of the regional strate- Ambassador Román Oyarzun (Spain), pre- in violence in the Donetsk region in the town gy to combat the Lord’s Resistance Army sented his quarterly report to the Council of Marinka. Feltman updated the Council (LRA) (S/PV.7461). The Council adopted on the work of the Committee (S/PV.7469). on the Secretary-General’s visits to Ukraine a presidential statement expressing its con- While reiterating the Committee’s support and Russia as well as the humanitarian situa- cern at the grave security situation in parts for the ongoing negotiations between Iran tion in Ukraine. Hug briefed the Council on of Central Africa, in particular the ongoing and the P5+1, Oyarzun emphasised that the violations and the current state of the imple- crisis in the Central African Republic and sanctions measures imposed by the Council mentation of the Minsk package of measures its regional impact, the continuing threat of remained in full e"ect, reminded states of adopted on 12 February. the LRA and the terrorist activities of Boko their obligations to implement them and said Haram (S/PRST/2015/12). the Committee remained fully committed Côte d’Ivoire to the implementation of all relevant resolu- On 9 June, the Council held a briefing (S/ Counter-Terrorism tions. On 11 June, the latest report from the PV.7459), followed by consultations, to con- On 16 June, the Council received the semi- IAEA on Iran was circulated as a Council sider the UNOCI report (S/2015/320). Dur- annual joint briefing by the chairs of its document (S/2015/425). ing the briefing, Special Representative and three counter-terrorism-related commit- head of UNOCI, Aïchatou Mindaoudou, tees (S/PV.7463). The briefers were Ambas- International Criminal Tribunals expressed the importance of “the creation sador Gerard van Bohemen (New Zealand), On 3 June, the Council held its semi-annual of a peaceful and enabling environment in chair of the 1267/1989 Al-Qaida Sanc- debate on the International Criminal Tribu- the lead-up to, during and after the presiden- tions Committee; Ambassador Raimonda nal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) and the tial elections” scheduled for October.