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Reassessing the Role of U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Turkey

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Reassessing the Role of U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Turkey By Mustafa Kibaroglu Reassessing the Role of U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Turkey ATO is revising its Strategic Concept; 1960s, to the deployment of U.S. nuclear weapons on its soil. the alliance is due to complete work The issue is contentious within NATO, which makes its decisions by consen- on the document in November. A key sus—an approach that was reaffirmed by N the alliance’s foreign ministers at an April issue in the revision is the deployment of U.S. meeting in Tallinn, Estonia, and by an Experts Group report released in May. tactical nuclear weapons in Europe as part of the Although final decisions on the de- ployment of U.S. nuclear weapons prob- alliance’s policy of extended nuclear deterrence. ably are not imminent, the debate has already been joined, and Turkey should Although Turkey has long been in agreement be an active participant. If Turkey con- tinues to sit on the sidelines of that with its allies on the value of these forward de- debate, as it has done until now, it could find itself in an uncomfortable spot: A ployments, it may soon find itself in a delicate decision to remove the U.S. weapons from Belgium, Germany, and the Neth- position on the question of how to continue the erlands would likely leave Turkey and policy effectively. Italy as the only NATO members with foreign nuclear weapons on their soil.1 Such a situation would put pressure on Turkey to reverse its long-standing policy of hosting U.S. nuclear weapons With other NATO countries such as drawal of U.S. weapons from Europe, on its territory—even more so if the 10 Luxembourg and Norway supporting Turkish decision-makers might conclude U.S. nuclear weapons are removed from 20 them, Belgium, Germany, and the Neth- that two fundamental principles of the Italy as well. Turkey’s calculus must erlands have indicated a desire to reassess alliance, namely solidarity and burden include an additional element because June the case for continued deployment of sharing, have been seriously weakened. it has Middle Eastern neighbors that U.S. nuclear weapons on their territories. Those principles have been the basis are a source of concern to some allies ODAY ODAY T Should these countries advocate with- for Turkey’s agreement, since the early but with whom Turkey is developing Mustafa Kibaroglu teaches courses on arms control and disarmament in the Department of International Relations at Bilkent University in Ankara, Turkey. He has held fellowships at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, the Center for Nonprolif- ARMS CONTROL eration Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, the International Atomic Energy Agency, and the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research. 8 increasingly close diplomatic ties after a the challenges and threats that the allied nuclear strategy of the alliance, Secretary- long period of animosity that extended countries are facing now and are likely to General Anders Fogh Rasmussen has said beyond the end of Cold War rivalry. confront in the future. that, “in a world where nuclear weapons The most sensible course for Turkey is The Strategic Concept has therefore exist, NATO needs a credible, effective to support the efforts of other host na- been under revision since the alliance and safely managed deterrent.”4 tions to create a consensus within the summit convened in Strasbourg/Kehl, That statement suggests that nuclear alliance that would lead to a withdrawal on April 3-4, 2009. At the summit meet- weapons are likely to retain their central of U.S. nuclear weapons from Europe. ing, NATO heads of state and govern- role in NATO’s forthcoming Strategic That step would help Ankara to con- ment tasked the secretary-general with Concept. That would satisfy Turkey’s ex- tinue cultivating relationships with its assembling and leading a broad-based pectations; Ankara is looking for the con- non-European neighbors and could be group of qualified experts who would tinuation of extended deterrence, which achieved without undermining extended lay the groundwork for the new Strategic has traditionally relied on U.S. nuclear nuclear deterrence. Concept with the active involvement of weapons deployed in Europe. ARCTIC OCEAN NATO’s highest decision-making body, Nevertheless, the positions of the Euro- NATO’s New Strategic Concept the North Atlantic Council.2 The report, pean allies are not fully compatible with Since 1999, when NATO last revised its “NATO 2020: Assured Security; Dynamic that of Turkey. Some western European Strategic Concept, the world has under- Engagement,” was released May 17. allies have expressed strong reserva- gone dramatic changes and witnessed The details of the new Strategic Con- tions about the presence of U.S. nuclear tragic events, such as the September 11 cept are not yet final, but the Experts weapons on their territories, while some terrorist attacks on the United States, Group report and media accounts of the central and eastern European allies still followed by others in Bali, Istanbul, ongoing deliberations give an idea of support the deployment of these weapons Madrid, London, and Amman. Since the general principles that are likely to in Europe as a visible sign of U.S. security the September 11 attacks, NATO, while govern the new document. For instance, guarantees for Europe. maintaining its identity as a collective during their April 22-23 meeting in The foreign ministers of Belgium, security organization, has accelerated Tallinn, Estonia, NATO foreign minis- Germany, Luxembourg, the Nether- the pace at which it is transforming ters discussed ways to modernize the lands, and Norway stated in a February itself from one focused on defending a organization and held talks on the new 26 letter to Rasmussen that they “wel- particular geographical area against a Strategic Concept. In those discussions, come the initiative taken by President well-known enemy to one that would be they shared the view that “the new Obama to strive toward substantial capable of dealing with emerging threats concept must reaffirm NATO’s essential reductions in strategic armaments, and such as international terrorism, which and enduring foundations: the politi- to move towards reducing the role of may manifest itself in different forms cal bond between Europe and North nuclear weapons and seek peace and se- and almost anywhere in the world. America, and the commitment to defend curity in a world without nuclear weap- This process of transformation within each other against attack,” according to ons.”5 The letter emphasized that there NATO has called into question the rel- a NATO press release.3 should be discussions in NATO as to evance of the 1999 Strategic Concept to More specifically, concerning the what the allies “can do to move closer Istanbul ATLANTIC Ankara Turkey Incirlik Syria Iraq Iran PACIFIC ARMS CONTROL TODAY ARMS CONTROL TODAY PACIFIC June 20 10 9 INDIAN OCEAN OCEAN OCEAN OCEAN 1 0 0 0 K ilo m e te1 rs 0 0 0 K ilo m e te1 rs 0 0 0 K ilo m e te rs P a ra lle l s c a le aP t a ra lle l s c a le aP t a ra lle l s c a le a t 0 n o rth 0 e a s t3 0 n o rth 0 e a6 s t 0 n o rth 0 e a s t Tarik Tinazay/AFP/Getty Images A U.S. Air Force F-16 fighter jet prepares to land at Incirlik Air Base in November 2001. to this overall political objective.”6 which was negotiated prior to the admit- ish F-100, F-104, and F-4 “Phantom” Some central and eastern European tance of the Czech Republic, Hungary, aircraft at air bases in Eskisehir, Malatya allies of NATO attach great importance to and Poland to NATO, the alliance declared (Erhac), Ankara (Akinci/Murted), and the continuation of the extended nuclear it had “no intention, no plan and no Balikesir.12 All such weapons, whether on deterrence strategy of the alliance and reason to deploy nuclear weapons on the U.S. or Turkish aircraft, have been under the forward deployment of U.S. nuclear territory of new members, nor any need to the custody of the U.S. Air Force. weapons, which they consider to provide change any aspect of NATO’s nuclear pos- Turkey still hosts these U.S. tactical credible assurances against the potential ture or nuclear policy.”10 Hence, it would nuclear weapons on its territory, albeit threat that they perceive from Russia.7 be fair to assume that if nuclear weapons in much smaller numbers.13 They are There is unanimous support for includ- are withdrawn from Belgium, Germany, limited to one location, the Incirlik ing tactical nuclear weapons in the next and the Netherlands, there are no new base near Adana on the eastern Medi- round of nuclear arms control, and there candidates to take them. terranean coast of Turkey.14 All other are also views suggesting concomitant Should this be the case, Turkey might nuclear weapons have been withdrawn withdrawal of all Russian and U.S. tactical have to revise its stance vis-à-vis the U.S. from the bases mentioned above.15 nuclear weapons from Europe.8 nuclear weapons on its soil.11 Moreover, the Turkish air force no lon- However, even the central and eastern ger has any operational link with the 10 European countries that favor the con- U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Turkey remaining tactical nuclear weapons 16 20 tinuation of nuclear sharing do not want Turkey has hosted U.S. nuclear weapons deployed at Incirlik.
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