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www.africa-confidential.com 12 April 2013 - Vol 54 - N° 8

Mali/France blue lines The campaign stretches out When Uhuru Kenyatta was sworn in as President of Kenya on 9 April, his supporters celebrated a double victory: his narrow win over Raila Odinga and the defeat of Western France commits to a long war just three months after launching its biggest detractors who predicted that his military operation in Africa in 50 years indictment by the International Criminal Court would undermine he official version is that France’s Mali Economic Community of West African States Kenya’s diplomatic position. The operation has achieved all its objectives playing the front-line role. France would reverse has been the case. T– the expulsion of jihadist forces from provide logistical and intelligence support Uganda’s President Yoweri main northern towns and the destruction and some European Union countries would Museveni led the charge at the of several bases in the Adrar des Ifoghas retrain the national army. inauguration: ‘I want to salute the mountains – apart from the rescue of seven Under the original plan, France was Kenyan voters...on the rejection of hostages still held in the region. This week not going to send combat troops. Hollande the blackmail by the International the withdrawal began, with 100 or so French had said categorically that there would be Criminal Court.’ Museveni, whose soldiers going home. France had airlifted no boots on the ground, although security own government is locked in 4,000 troops to Mali and sent another 2,000 experts suspected that French special forces battle with Western governments from its bases in Chad and Côte d’Ivoire. would continue the search for Western over the freezing of over US$300 Initially, French President François hostages. After Hollande sent the troops million of aid funds due to claims of Hollande’s government had said that all on 11 January to block the jihadist advance government corruption, reinforced French troops would be out after elections towards Mopti, his ministers gave differing his point: ‘the usual opinionated were organised: they are scheduled for July. reasons for the intervention, ranging from and arrogant actors’ were trying However, Foreign Minister Laurent the need to protect Mali’s sovereignty and to ‘install leaders of their choice in Fabius, who has been sceptical about the to reunite the country, to driving out armed Africa’ with the help of the ICC. operation from the start, announced on a Islamists and fighting a terrorist threat to Since Kenyatta’s election, 5 April visit to Bamako that France would France and the rest of Europe. Western governments have been maintain a ‘support force’ of 1,000 soldiers Fabius emphasised the temporary nature backtracking on their threat to in Mali on a ‘permanent basis’. This was of the French deployment. Having gone to sever all but ‘essential contacts’ France’s first public commitment to a long- such lengths last year to differentiate itself with the presidency. United term military presence. It was more forceful from former President Nicolas Sarkozy’s States Ambassador Robert coming from the cautious Fabius rather model of Françafrique policy, Fabius wanted Godec met Kenyatta last week than the more bullish Defence Minister, Hollande’s Parti Socialiste government to and European ambassadors have Jean-Yves le Drian. make a clear break with that legacy. At the also sought meetings to resolve same time, Hollande and Le Drian, one of his any misunderstandings. We hear not so temporary closest allies, said that French troops would that British Prime Minister David Until then, Hollande’s ministers had insisted remain as long as necessary, until Malian Cameron now wants a policy of that this was an emergency operation and sovereignty was restored and the jihadists constructive engagement: Kenya that it would be temporary. After ejecting defeated. They said that there was no point is Britain’s biggest trading partner jihadists from northern Mali, the plan in sending troops to Mali unless they were in the region and will be a hub for went, French troops would hand over the able to restore and consolidate security. East Africa’s fast-growing oil and job to Malian soldiers and the Mission Budgetary pressure, concern about the gas industry. Relations will be internationale de soutien au Mali (Misma), longer-term success of the intervention critical for Britain’s efforts to help which drew in forces from a dozen west and local issues in France meant ministers stabilise Somalia, where Kenya has African countries. The resolution approved were careful to avoid any commitment to a deployed several thousand troops. by the United Nations Security Council permanent presence. Reporting of the war last December envisaged troops from the by French and other international media

Mali/France 2 CAR 3 Côte d’Ivoire 4 Ethiopia 5 South Africa 6 Boycotts and Toeing the party Mozambique 8 Training regime Lords of misrule Property of Asempa Limited As the military intervention Confusion reigned at the masks online Somalia/Puntland 10 continues, new problems summit on the Central Many independents are The government tries to arise, from the army’s Pointers 12 African Republic’s future standing in the local increase internet access broken chain of command and the new rulers could elections but that doesn’t and mobile telephony to the rainy-season not halt the prolonged lessen the political divide. while restricting free elections. plunder of the capital. speech and the media.

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or quit without defeating the jihadists? In declining rapidly due to the economy. AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL fact, French strategic planners and their The experiences of the last six weeks 73 Farringdon Rd, London EC1M 3JQ, UK political directors have been refining their have confirmed this analysis. Despite the Tel: 44(0)20 7831 3511 approach as events develop, so as to get a killing in late February of Abdel Hamid Editor: Patrick Smith clear sense of the likely prospects. Abou Zeid, a prominent commander from Associate Editor: Gillian Lusk In mid-January, Hollande had to set Al Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), Deputy Editor: Andrew Weir Managing Editor: Clare Tauben aside the assumption that Misma would other key Islamist leaders are still at large, Website Editor: Juliet Amissah take the lead. The immediate threat then including Iyad ag Ghali, the founder of Published fortnightly since 1960 was the rapid jihadist advance towards Ansar Eddine (AC Vol 54 No 3). After a 25 issues per year – Proprietors: Asempa Ltd. Mopti and the key Sévaré military airbase huge manhunt in the Ifoghas massif in the ISSN 0044-6483 (Print) ISSN 1467-6338 (Online) in central Mali (AC Vol 54 No 2). Once Sahara, there is no sign of the hostages. All material is copyright Africa Confidential. French troops were on the ground and the Meanwhile, the Mouvement pour l’unicité For the latest edition online, go to: militants in retreat, they pressed forward et le jihad en Afrique de l’ouest (MUJAO) Africa-Confidential.com. to end Islamist control of northern towns, continues to mount spectacular attacks in right up to Kidal, Tessalit and Aguelhok in Gao and Timbuktu and launched a mine was carefully controlled in northern Mali. the central Sahara. attack between Ansongo and Ménaka, Journalists were embedded with the By mid-February, French military south-east of Gao. French troops and very little reporting has planners were reflecting on what the long- come from the rapidly moving front line. term challenge would be. They knew that Why France is staying on A month ago, security experts were the struggle to hunt down militant groups The French military has also had the predicting that French forces would hiding in the desert or in the Sahel bush chance to get the measure of Misma, pull back to existing bases elsewhere in near Gao would be slow and difficult. which is likely to be restructured as a UN West Africa: in Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire, Sporadic attacks by suicide bombers and force later this year. The African force now Burkina Faso and Chad, from where they land mines would continue, while finding has 6,300 troops in Mali and its numbers could fly back if Misma needed emergency the hostages could take months. In spite could reach 10,000. The first 200 Ivorian reinforcement. Security experts and the of the quick early successes, the planners soldiers, newly retrained by France, will wider public in France remained obsessed realised their troops might have to stay arrive before the end of April. by parallels with Afghanistan and Iraq. on much longer – to the frustration of a The capability of the different national Would France get stuck in the quicksands gover n ment whose popu la r it y at home wa s contingents varies. The Nigeriens are well regarded and units have now arrived from countries with long experience of Training regime peacekeeping and intervention elsewhere, such as Senegal. Mauritania, previously As the military operation in Mali continues, fresh complications arise. Early reports from reluctant, has also indicated that it may the European trainers suggest that progress in restoring the discipline and effectiveness provide troops; at least they would of the Malian army will be slow. The first batch of 2,500 soldiers started a course at already be trained for desert warfare. Koulikoro, 60 kilometres from Bamako, on 2 April. Much of the tuition is aimed at building Burundi may also contribute: it has solid a better team spirit and restoring the broken chain of command after last year’s putsch. experience of serving in the African Union The cour se cover s human rights and soldier s’ legal responsibilities towards prisoner s Mission in Somalia, fighting Al Haraka and civilians. Human rights groups have already produced damning reports about the al Shabaab al Mujahideen. Yet only the behaviour of Malian soldiers, especially towards the Tuareg and Arabs whom they may 2,400 Chadian soldiers have been trusted blame for starting the conflict. This has made efforts at local political reconciliation to fight alongside the French in offensive much harder, let alone any serious consideration of northerners’ grievances towards desert warfare against the jihadists. the Bamako government. The Chairman of the Commission dialogue et réconciliation, This is why France has concluded that former Ambassador and ex-Armed Forces and Veterans Minister Mohamed Salia it makes sense to keep 1,000 troops in Sokona, and Vice-Chairpersons Oumou Touré Traoré and Méti ag Mohamed Rhissa, a Mali, where they will presumably focus Tuareg, have been appointed. Other members are yet to be named. largely on offensive operations against the Until the negotiations over constitutional reform get under way, the question of Islamists – one such has been under way political control of the Saharan north, particularly Kidal region, cannot be resolved. Kidal outside Gao over recent days – while the town is in the hands of the Tuareg secularist Mouvement national pour la libération de African forces concentrate on consolidating l’Azawad, which tolerates the presence of French and Chadian troops but will not accept security and order in the settled areas of the return of the Malian army to the region. This infuriates Bamako, which says such the north. As Fabius put it, the goal is to obstructionism is delaying national reunification. The government continues to talk of ensure that ‘all the work done to break the elections (with a first-round presidential vote on 7 July and a second on 21 July) but the terrorists is not destroyed’. timetable is unrealistic. Few in Bamako believe electoral registration and checking could The decision is all the more significant finish by then, especially in the north, where many records have been destroyed. given the difficult domestic political Rains from July to at least September will create transport problems across Mali. context for Hollande at present. It follows Championing July elections may be intended to placate France and the United States, reports that the co-chairman of his which want the government to hold the polls, even though the impracticalities are widely presidential election campaign had money known. More problematic than timing is the view of Bamako’s political class that they in the British Virgin Islands offshore tax can pick up where they were forced to leave off before the coup in March 2012. haven, while Budget Minister Jérôme With the north apparently reconquered and France offering security support for Cahuzac had to resign and has been the foreseeable future, the mainstream politicians’ enthusiasm for administrative and charged with fraud.

constitutional reform has waned. They want to hold elections as soon as possible and As France’s campaign hits more Property of Asempa Limited to restart the political machine set up in the 1990s, after purging the military of any problems within Mali, the security putschists. That plan faces a sizeable obstacle in Captain Amadou Sanogo who, despite position in neighbouring countries such his new office-bound role directing reform of the military, still has a substantial following as Mauritania and Niger is also causing in the ranks – mainly among soldiers who are not fighting in the north.l concern. Although the United States Continued on page 11 ➡

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Central african republic can raise money either by continuing to loot private citizens and companies or by demanding protection money. Everyone Lords of misrule talks about restoring law and order but nothing is changing on the ground. One reason is that the Séléka alliance itself is crumbling. Having united to take power, Confusion reigned at the summit on CAR’s future while the new rulers the rebels have nothing left to do and are could not halt the prolonged plunder of the capital. The omens are poor not under a central command. Séléka fighters and commanders sit he Ndjamena summit called to resolve that would protect his position, and his atop a hierarchy of plunder. Fighters march the crisis in Central African Republic personal safety, once he was back in into houses and remove cars, televisions, Twas nearly as chaotic as Bangui itself. Bangui. His audience in Ndjamena heard computers and mobile telephones. Then Members of the Communauté économique only his concern to reach some superficial police, military and gendarmes in plain des états de l’Afrique centrale (CEEAC) met agreement with the regional powers; clothes form a second wave, removing South African President Jacob Zuma and he showed no such concern for the refrigerators, clothing and kitchen utensils. observers from other countries on 3 April predicament of his fellow countrymen. Lastly, the young people who were often for exchanges that were often heated. Tiangaye’s house in Bangui was, in fact, part of the militias of Bozizé’s Kwa Na Kwa Several delegations wanted to prevent the successfully protected by Séléka and party, armed with machetes and knives, rubber-stamping of the violent seizure of Micopax soldiers, we hear. finish the job. Yet not everyone has been power by the self-appointed President, Western governments, including affected by the looting: many Muslim Michel Djotodia. Chad’s President Idriss France, the United States and European families escaped this time. Déby Itno, who had a hand in sparking Union, as well as the Organisation Micopax and Chadian troops are the Séléka revolt but probably did not internationale de la francophonie, seemed also said to have been involved in the authorise the coup d’état, hosted a summit ready to endorse whatever solution Déby looting. French troops have hardly been which was unusual for its frankness and wanted to promote, though the OIF later pro-active, even when protecting their its genuine exchange of opinion among suspended CAR’s membership. Because own citizens, who were asked to stay at heads of government. of Chad’s major military commitment in home during the worst of the unrest. They Djotodia’s most militant opponent Mali, no one questioned Déby’s plans to began patrols in the city a week after the in Ndjamena was Zuma, who appeared stabilise CAR, even though he had helped takeover and do not arrest anyone. desperate to make sense of the sacrifice of to trigger the crisis. The country is on the brink of a huge at least 13 of his best soldiers, who were After hours of discussion, Déby humanitarian crisis and the economy has all killed on the final day of the battle for announced a new government system stalled because the looters have removed Bangui (AC Vol 54 No 7). Leaving aside for CAR. The agreement said that a new not only plant but all office equipment. the still murky reasons for South Africa’s president should be elected by a 97- With companies unable to operate, workers presence in Bangui, Zuma eloquently member Conseil national de transition have lost their jobs. It is much the same for questioned the other leaders. Why were (CNT), with the transition being reduced ministries and other public organisations. fellow Africans slating his country for its from the three years envisaged in Bank branches will not open. Confusion military presence while French troops January’s Libreville agreement to 18 reigns. The new rulers cannot expect were still present? Why, instead, had months. The spirit and the reasoning budgetary support from the International France not been asked to leave the country? behind Libreville would be respected. Monetary Fund or the EU. With no salaries It was only after this question that Zuma The current Prime Minister and cabinet being paid, Bangui will collapse. If money seemed to learn for the first time that the would stay, despite Séléka’s overwhelming were to reach state coffers, how much French troops were deployed under an presence. Other drawbacks included would Séléka appropriate? The cabinet is international mandate to support troops of the family connections to Djotodia that not ready to start work. The sponsors and CEEAC’s Mission de consolidation de la paix dominate key ministerial appointments godfathers of the ministers are appointing en République Centrafricaine (Micopax). and the lack of qualifications of others. dozens of special and technical advisors to The French force was studiously neutral Some observers believe these factors will keep a close eye on their departments. in the fighting, even to the point of risking ultimately kill the transition process. The Prime Minister leans towards failing in its own mission to protect French Despite the worrying similarities the Mouvement de libération du peuple citizens and their property, much of which between these arrangements and CAR’s centrafricain led by Martin Ziguélé, while was looted after Séléka’s victory. recent political past, the EU Ambassador Djotodia is reconnecting with the Yakoma Core discussions centred on the new in Bangui, Guy Samzun, endorsed the civil servants who supported President government’s legal status. Djotodia and plan, noting that Djotodia could indeed André Kolingba. Djotodia was briefly the unofficial number three in the new be included among the candidates the a member of Kolingba’s Rassemblement team, Noureddine Adam, head of the CNT selected (AC Vol 52 No 5). No one démocratique centrafricain (AC Vol 42 No Convention des patriotes pour la justice et was fooled, however. This was Djotodia’s 12). Competition for the spoils increases la paix, had pledged to end the looting de facto coronation and no other serious daily. Everything has changed but the in Bangui and elsewhere but it was still candidates would be considered. It was political game is much the same. going on as Africa Confidential went to Djotodia himself who announced the One more chance to rescue the press. The African Union and the United formation of the CNT on 6 April. country lies with the next CEEAC summit Nations, both heavily criticised for their Three weeks after Séléka seized the in Ndjamena on 15 April. If Déby, Congo- bias in favour of President François capital, normality has not returned to Brazzaville President Denis Sassou-

Bozizé Yangouvonda, maintained a hard the streets. Looting, rape and killing take Nguesso and others take a firm stand Property of Asempa Limited line, refusing to reward his successor with place with impunity. Séléka fighters who and local politicians focus on the needs easy recognition. The UN and AU position took no part in the Bangui battle arrive of the beleaguered populace, the tragic contrasted with that of interim Prime still wanting their share of the booty. Now, aftermath of the last coup d’état, when Minister Nicolas Tiangaye, who seemed rumours say that each Séléka commander Bozizé took over amidst much bloodshed to want merely an accommodation has been allocated an area in which he in 2003, may not be repeated. l

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Côte d’Ivoire is biased against it (AC Vol 51 No 5). Candidates linked to the FPI will, however, be standing, especially in its Boycotts and masks traditional strongholds, the cocoa belt in the south and west and the Abidjan suburb of Yopougon. The fact that they are standing as independents explains Many independent candidates are standing in the local elections but that the large number of these; some have doesn’t lessen the main political divide been dubbed ‘masked FPI candidates’. The party’s overt focus is more on eventually t least half of the candidates la démocratie et la paix, named after yet regaining the presidency. which the Commission électorale another President, the late founding father Resentment of Ouattara’s government Aindépendante (CEI) has accepted Félix Houphouët-Boigny. The RHDP has remains high among Gbagbo’s supporters, for the regional and municipal elections decided to field candidates under its own especially in the west, and the RDR’s on 21 April are running as independents. banner, even though it considers itself part response is to try to buy loyalty. On 3 On the surface, they have little to do with of Ouattara’s grand coalition. April, Interior and Security Minister the two main political currents, President Finally, there is the Union pour la Hamed Bakayoko gave 200 million CFA Alassane Dramane Ouattara’s coalition démocratie et la paix en Côte d’Ivoire francs (US$400,000) to communities in and the Front populaire ivoirien (FPI) of (UPDCI), a party connected to yet Cavally and neighbouring Guémon for ex-President Laurent Gbagbo, who now another ex-head of state, the late General reconstruction after the civil war. awaits trial for human rights violations at Robert Gueï, who staged the country’s The west remains troubled by attacks the International Criminal Court. first military coup, in 1999. The UPDCI from neighbouring Liberia by pro-Gbagbo The two elections will be held is fielding candidates in and around his militias and Liberian mercenaries and by concurently: 81 candidates will compete to home area of Man, in the West. land disputes bet ween the local population run the country’s 31 regions, while 659 are The FPI is again boycotting the polls, and mainly Burkinabè immigrants. standing for mayor in 197 towns, villages a hard-line decision taken at the highest Although the Defence Minister, Paul Koffi or neighbourhoods. Those standing as level. Its interim Secretary General Koffi, has promised that the national army, independents, however, are often linked and Spokesman, Richard Kodjo, says the Forces républicaines de Côte d’Ivoire to the two main groups. Ouattara’s government wants to destroy (FRCI), will ensure security throughout Ouattara’s coalition comprises his the party and colonise the cocoa sector the country, if necessary with the help of own Rassemblement des républicains and on behalf of foreign multinationals. The United Nations peacekeepers, few find the the Parti démocratique de Côte d’Ivoire of party also blames the government for the pledge convincing, especially as applied Henri Konan Bédié, another ex-President. spate of attacks in the west and claims the to the West (AC Vol 53 No 9). The main This is an unequal partnership: the RDR electoral process is worthless as long as its reason is a hawkish faction in the FPI which dominates. The picture is muddied by the top officials remain in gaol. It also claims still believes in the violent overthrow of Rassemblement des houphouëtistes pour the CEI, headed by Youssouf Bakayoko, the government. Another group within the party disagrees, believing the way forward lies in diligent preparation for the Independents in name 2015 presidential election. For now, the hard-liners have the In Abidjan’s large suburb of Yopougon, seven of nine candidates are standing as upper hand. In a move reminiscent of independents, with one from the Parti démocratique de Côte d’Ivoire-Rassemblement the intimidation practised by the Jeunes démocratique africain c a n d i d a t e a n d t h e o t h e r f r o m t h e Rassemblement des républicains. Patriotes under the now-incarcerated Another suburb, Abobo, offers a similar picture: five of seven independents, one PDCI, former Youth Minister, Charles Blé one RDR. The latter happens to be the heavyweight Minister of Mines, Petroleum and Goudé, the current leader of the Jeunesse Energy, Adama Toungara. He is a close friend of Noël Akossi Bendjo, who is standing as du FPI, Justin Koua, has declared that 33 Mayor of Plateau, Abidjan’s central business district. Bendjo, though, is running for the youth delegations will travel around the Rassemblement des houphouëtistes pour la démocratie et la paix (RHDP). country to ‘invite the rank and file to stay Elsewhere in the country, the picture is the same. In Divo, a stronghold of ex- at home on 21 April’. President Laurent Gbagbo, two candidates will run as independents while the PDCI and RDR have fielded one each. In Duékoué, ‘the town of the martyrs’ in the west, three of the Banny and Bédié four mayoral candidates stand as independents, one as RDR. The former PDCI Economy The FPI is not alone in pulling in two and Finance Minister and National Assembly member for the central town of Bouaflé, directions at once. The governing the influential Charles Koffi Diby, is running as RHDP candidate for the leadership of the coalition’s junior party, the PDCI, is Marahoué Region, where Bouaflé is situated. divided between the current leadership The national political capital (and birthplace of the late President Félix Houphouët- and the youth wing. The younger Boigny) , Ya m o u s s o u k r o, s e e s t w o in d e p e n d e n t s f a c e o n e R H D P c a n d i d a t e ; t h e c i t y i s like l y members are fed up with being led by to remain in Houphouëtist hands. Bouaké, the former rebel capital, has five candidates Konan Bédié, who is 78, but nor do they for mayor, including three independents. One of those is Allou Konan, another old PDCI rate the other PDCI ‘gerontocrat’, former heavyweight and former Assembly member. In Ferkessédougou, fief of former rebel Prime Minister Charles Konan Banny, leader and current Assembly President Guillaume Soro, two independents are running 70, who heads the Commission dialogue, against one RDR candidate, who is likely to win. Soro also has a candidate in nearby vérité et réconciliation. Banny has clear Bondoukou. His advisor Hiliassou Koné is (once again) running as an independent. presidential ambitions of his own. PDCI

No contests will take place in Kong or Odienné: Kong, in the north-east, will elect youth leader Kouadio Konan Bertin has Property of Asempa Limited the sole candidate, President Alassane Ouattara’s brother Téné Birahima Ouattara launched stinging attacks on the party (nicknamed ‘Photocopie’ thanks to his resemblance to his brother). Odienné, in the leaders, telling them to step aside and north, will do the same for Nasseneba Touré, Special Advisor to the Assembly President allow the party to be reinvigorated. He for Political and Social Affairs. Both are under the RDR flag. l has strong support but Bédié is believed to favour N’Goran Niamien, Economy

4 12 April 2013 • Vol 54 - N° 8 • Africa Confidential Prepared for on 14/04/2013 at 19:25. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected]. S2106/455738 Administration and Finance Minister in his government the presidency (AC Vol 53 No 25). He is and extortion rackets in all of the northern until the 1999 coup, as his successor. popular within his party but also among cities they controlled, including Bouaké, Disgruntled PDCI candidates have also the PDCI youth wing. Now he is presented Korhogo, Séguéla, Odienné and Soro’s decided to run as independents. as Ouattara’s very own candidate for own fief, Ferkessédougou. Ouattara would have liked the polls to the leadership of the Hambol Region, in The com-zones have been rewarded be a decisive show of force for the coalition, which lie the politically sensitive towns with good jobs in the security especially in the traditional fiefs of the of Bouaké and Katiola. The ambitious establishment and are, for now at least, north and the Abidjan suburb of Abobo, minister is on his way to becoming a keeping away from politics. For instance, but the FPI boycott has denied it this. The challenge to Ouattara’s own re-election Issiaka Ouattara (aka Wattao) was coalition has other problems, such as the plans for 2015 but the President may be appointed in March as deputy in a body friction between the parties in the west. calculating that Billon is less of a threat overseeing the installation of a large In Toulépleu, a town in the Cavally Region when directly under his wing. anti-crime camera surveillance system that has come under repeated attack The coalition is also dogged by in Abidjan. Losséni Fofana (‘Loss’) by groups based in Liberia, the PDCI speculation about Guillaume Soro, who is used to run Man and is suspected of candidate for mayor, Denis Kah Zion, is at Speaker of the National Assembly and who responsibility for the Duékoué killings. He loggerheads with Anne Désirée Ouloto, still harbours presidential ambitions. He and Chérif Ousmane, who ran Bouaké, the Minister for Solidarity, Families, commands considerable support among are important FRCI commanders. Via his Women and Children, who is also the the fighters of the former guerrilla army frequent Twitter and blog entries, Soro RDR candidate for Cavally. Forces nouvelles, which ran the north. He portrays himself as a statesman above A n i ntere st i ng c a se i s t hat of Com merce may now face indictment over massacres the fray, hoping for peaceful elections and Minister Jean-Louis Billon (RDR), in Duékoué in March 2011. His former zone giving no sign of concern about possible who is widely seen as having his eye on commanders (‘com-zones’) ran smuggling extradition to the Netherlands. l

Ethiopia inciting violence through a series of blog posts on diaspora websites. On 1 April, the UN criticised the sentence as a violation of Toeing the party online international law. The government claims that some journalists harbour links to the opposition group Ginbot 7, which allows it to cite harsh anti-terrorism laws. The government tries to increase access to the internet and mobile International media agencies’ telephony while restricting free speech and the media websites have been blocked, although any government role in this can only be he government has grown more had internet access. Ethiopia thus faces presumed. Sites affected at various times sensitive to dissenters using the the challenge not only of expanding its include the Qatari-based Al Jazeera, the Tinternet. Now it is blocking opposition network and facilities but also of deciding Saudi Arabian channel Al Arabiya and websites and some social media, and how tightly to censor them. There are plans Ethiopian diaspora news sites such as using special programmes to spy on to roll out new networks in Addis Ababa, Nazaret, EthioForum, Ethiopian Review internet users. The restrictions attracted Tigray, Amhara and Oromia regions, and and Addis Voice. Virtual private networks, great interest last June when a storm to introduce mobile banking facilities via which allow users to re-route their traffic of controversy broke over a draft law the banking system. The government through internet service providers abroad proposing up to 15 years in prison wants the economy and people to benefit – such as Anonymizer, HideMyAss and for anyone illegally using an internet but not opposition groups, dissenters, Proxify – are restricted inside Ethiopia. telephone line or Voice over Internet journalists or, of course, terrorists. Protocol (VoIP), the technology used by During the 2005 parliamentary polls, 73 websites blocked Microsoft’s Skype system. the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Last September, in an attempt to expose Addis Ababa insisted t hat t he proposa ls Democratic Front government blocked global internet censorship, the Open were not aimed at private users. ‘You can access to the site Blogger and, after it Net Initiative tested the accessibility of Skype as much as you want,’ said an had accused the opposition of using websites in Ethiopia and around the world. official spokesman. It then became clear short message service (SMS) messages to Open Net, run jointly by Toronto and that the purpose of the bill was to protect organise protests, all texting was banned, Harvard Universities and the Canadian the state telecommunications monopoly, resuming only in September 2007. On 15 internet analysts SecDev Group, found as VoIP calls can circumvent long-distance February this year, all phone and internet that three types of website were blocked: charges. Given the Ethiopian government’s telecommunications in Addis Ababa were those with politically sensitive material, poor record on freedom of speech, it was cut from morning until after midday. those that allow the download of tools to not surprising that people assumed the Protests by some Muslims had been circumvent government restrictions, and worst about the bill. expected after Friday prayers following sites associated with banned opposition VoIP had been under occasional bans the airing of a documentary, ‘Jihadawi groups such as the Ogaden National since as early as 2002, according to the Harekat’ (Holy War Movement), which Liberation Front, Oromo Liberation Front, United States campaign group Freedom linked Muslims on trial in Addis Ababa to Ethiopian People’s Patriotic Front and House. A far greater obstacle to such Islamists in Somalia and Nigeria (AC Vol Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Party. Of use of the internet is the extremely low 53 No 16). Some Muslim newspapers were 1,375 websites tested, 73 were found to be bandwidth available and the low level of forced to close down, according to the blocked in Ethiopia. Property of Asempa Limited internet penetration. A United Nations Committee to Protect Journalists. If the Aside from controlling access to non- survey said that only 27,000 broadband press is not free, it can hardly be expected approved sources of news, the main subscribers existed in Ethiopia in 2011 that the internet would be. Blogger and targets of Ethiopian censorship in the and the International Telecommunications journalist Eskinder Nega was sentenced recent past have been Muslim protests Union said only 1.1% of the population to 18 years in gaol last July, accused of and the illness of the late Prime Minister,

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Meles Zenawi. The shock that greeted the FinSpy, which is made by Gamma In the aftermath of the 2012 Egyptian news of his death last August, at home and International, a British company, revolution, contracts between Egyptian abroad, was testimony to the efficiency of records keystrokes and can remotely former President Mohamed Hosni the efforts to block all knowledge of the control webcameras and microphones, Mubarak and Gamma were found in seriousness of his condition. compromising emails and other abandoned government offices. In a deal The government also spies on internet supposedly secure data on the computer. dated 29 June 2012, Gamma offered users. In March, Morgan Marquis-Boire The researchers found that information the Mubarak regime FinSpy software, from Toronto University and Bill Marczak, from the infected computers was then sent hardware, installation and training for a computer science researcher at the by the FinSpy programme to a command 287,000 euros (US$377,000). University of California, found traces of centre inside Ethiopia affiliated to an Ethio Like most spyware programmes, spyware (computer programmes used to Telecom Internet Protocol address. ‘The FinSpy infects only computers running record covertly the activities of internet reason we think the Ethiopian government Windows operating systems, not Apples, users) among suspicious emails posted is using FinSpy is because the programme Marczak said. Shortly after Open Net’s online by Ethiopian sources. A photograph is hosted inside Ethiopia,’ Marczak told research was made public, Britain of members of Ginbot 7 was embedded Africa Confidential. Once downloaded, the announced that Gamma International in the email and the researchers found image of the Ginbot 7 leaders is replaced products such as FinSpy would henceforth that once the image was clicked on, a by a genuine image, so there is no way for require government licences, such as arms programme called FinSpy would install users to know that their machine has been exports require, before purchases outside itself on the host computer. infected. the European Union were allowed. l

South Africa in taxes. In January, sheriffs seized his Sandton and Polokwane homes and in March, the Asset Forfeiture Unit of the ANC wields the long knives National Prosecuting Authority seized his Limpopo farm, worth some R4 mn. The NPA claimed the properties were acquired with proceeds from fraud, corruption, The governing party and its partners quarrel bitterly as Zuma clears out theft and money laundering. his opponents, regardless of the consequences Zuma’s allies say he is just waiting for the right moment to rid his cabinet resident Jacob Zuma and his allies Mathale, backed Motlanthe. Zuma of opponents and that will come soon. have begun their long-awaited purge appointed his ally Ruth Bhengu as acting Motlanthe looks a probable casualty. At Pof trades unionists, party members Chairwoman of the Limpopo branch, with first, Zuma had decided to keep him as and government officials judged to have an interim team led by another Zuma- Deputy President of the country until opposed him at the African National loyalist, Philemon Falaza Mdaka. the 2014 elections. Many of Motlanthe’s Congress conference in Mangaung The Zuma leadership has frozen all supporters, including Zwelinzima Vavi, in December. His allies call it a mere awards of government tenders and senior General Secretary of the Congress of ‘mopping-up operation’ but it may be wider appointments without approval from South African Trade Unions (Cosatu), than that. The President’s original plan the ANC National Executive Committee, had warned Zuma that Motlanthe should was to reshuffle only the top leadership even though that contravenes Treasury be allowed to stay on. Now, relations are of his cabinet and the provincial and city regulations, say NEC sources. The Free apparently so bad that Motlanthe and governments, to maintain ANC unity for State party leadership was disbanded in Zuma communicate only through proxies. next year’s general elections. Yet strategists January and a pro-Zuma team appointed This does not help in running the cabinet. such as Blade Nzimande, the Higher to organise elections for a new one. Free Motlanthe and his allies accuse Zuma Education Minister and General Secretary State ANC members who opposed Zuma and his team of deliberately making life of the South African Communist Party took the party to the Constitutional Court difficult in the hope that he will leave (SACP), apparently urged him to unseat late last year, claiming the pro-Zuma office of his own accord. his opponents early, before they had a leaders had been elected at a provincial After the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, chance to undermine him. Zuma agreed. conference in June that was fraudulent. India, China and South Africa) summit in Zuma’s close ally, the ANC General The Court agreed. The anti-Zuma ANC Durban on 26-27 March, Motlanthe wrote Secretary Gwede Mantashe, has structures of Gauteng and North West will a memorandum to Zuma complaining called the campaign a ‘clean-up’ to stop also be replaced, we hear. that the President had ‘deliberately ‘ill-discipline and factionalism from marginalised’ him. Zuma had indeed overrunning the ANC’. He says the Malema’s noose pulled his Vice-President off all the pro-Zuma party leadership elected in State prosecuting and tax authorities BRICS-related activities, although it was December did not want to be caught have tightened the noose around Malema. Motlanthe who in 2011 had signed a ‘flat-footed’ simply for fear of being seen The party leaders have appointed a pro- crucial memorandum of understanding to carry out purges. In March, Zuma Zuma interim committee to run the Youth with the Chinese then Vice-President, Xi dissolved the leadership of the ANC Youth League and are organising a conference Jinping, confirming crucial aspects of League, which had supported the national to elect the ‘right’ (meaning pro-Zuma) economic cooperation. Deputy President, Kgalema Motlanthe, leaders. Malema faces charges of fraud Motlanthe apparently blamed Zuma’s for the party presidency. He also got tough and racketeering related to the irregular allies for leaking a story to the media in Limpopo Province, home of ANCYL’s award of a 52-million-rand (US$5 mn.) claiming that he had used public funds Property of Asempa Limited expelled President, Julius Malema, who tender to a Limpopo company, On-Point for a holiday in Seychelles. Motlanthe is Motlanthe’s close ally. Zuma’s team Engineering. The South Africa Revenue insisted that he had paid for his own has dissolved the Limpopo provincial Services are hounding Malema for what holiday accommodation and the state had leadership which, with its Premier, Cassel they say is his failure to pay R16 mn. ‘only’ paid for his transport. Zuma’s allies had hoped this would be enough to get

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Motlanthe to resign but he is determined political party. Speaking at the recent or the National Council of Trade Unions not to leave until he is sacked. Zuma team Cosatu bargaining Mantashe said, ‘The (Nactu), the third largest. Vavi said Cosatu aims to make room for Cyril Ramaphosa, top six [in the leadership of Cosatu] is affiliates were increasingly poaching each who was elected Deputy President of the split, others are behind Vavi and others others’ members, with other battles, apart ANC in December, to take Motlanthe’s [support] Sdumo [Dlamini]. You will have from the NUM-NUMSA struggle, between place as national Deputy President. They no Cosatu – you [will] have Vavi unions the South African Democratic Teachers’ want Ramaphosa in national office before and Sdumo unions. The federation is on Union and the National Education, Health the 2014 elections. Yet he is busy extracting a downward slope and unions are under and Allied Workers’ Union. himself from his web of business interests, siege.’ Mantashe blamed the leadership which may take some time. battles in Cosatu for the violent nature of Losing touch A prominent figure whom Zuma wants recent strikes and for Cosatu’s difficulties Some observers see the crisis in the out of the Cabinet is Tokyo Sexwale, in recruiting new members. official union movement as the inevitable the Human Settlements Minister, whom Vavi admits that the rise of splinter result of its association with company Ramaphosa defeated for the party’s unions means that Cosatu may no longer management and the government and deputy presidency. Fikile Mbalula, represent a majority of the labour force. its failure to embrace traditional, grass- the Sports Minister and former ANCYL The latest Labour Department figures roots workers’ concerns about low pay President, will be another casualty, we show that there are now 193 registered and poor working conditions. The NUM hear. Mbalula’s sin was to stand against trades unions, of which 117 (many has lost 35,000 members in the North Mantashe at Mangaung for the General very small) do not belong to Cosatu or West Province, where Lonmin’s Marikana Secretary’s job. Sexwale and Mbalula any other formal alliance, such as the mine is located. In last year’s labour have been lying low since their defeats. Federation of Unions of South Africa dispute there, workers set a new trend Another who is marked for removal is (Fedusa), the second largest federation, of negotiating wage demands outside Paul Mashatile, the Culture Minister and a key backer of Motlanthe.

Cosatu splits Blade’s think-Tank regiment There are troubles, too, within the ANC’s formal allies, Cosatu and the SACP. In Higher Education Minister Blade Nzimande may be moving to the Department of Zuma’s sights is Vavi, his most prominent International Relations and Cooperation to replace Maite Nkoana-Mashabane. This opponent and a rival of Nzimande. Pro- is under serious consideration, senior African National Congress (ANC) sources told Zuma Cosatu leaders and affiliates led Africa Confidential, because the DIRCO Minister has struggled in her job, albeit mainly by Sdumo Dlamini, Cosatu’s President because she has been undermined, they add (AC Vol 54 No 5). Appointing so staunch and a leading Zuma supporter, have an ally would consolidate President Jacob Zuma’s power in an area of government he moved to purge Vavi. Dlamini’s faction is increasingly sees as his own. investigating supposed improprieties by Nzimande is General Secretary of the South African Communist Party and Zuma’s Vavi in the sale of Cosatu’s old head office. leading political strategist in KwaZulu-Natal, his home province and principal power Vavi has described the investigation base. The President has grown more reliant on him for advice on foreign affairs: he as a ‘character assassination campaign depends on his KZN brains trust (headed by Nzimande) for advice on contentious issues designed to achieve political ends’. such as intelligence, security, police and the state-owned enterprises. The split within Cosatu goes right into Nzimande directly asked Zuma for the Foreign Ministry and, we understand, was the membership. The battle is particularly granted his request. The President may not make the appointment until the next cabinet intense between the pro-Zuma National reshuffle or early in 2014, after the general elections. Nzimande is held to be extremely Union of Mineworkers and the anti-Zuma ambitious and aspired to the ANC deputy presidency at the Mangaung party congress National Union of Metalworkers of South until Zuma judged the governing party’s former General Secretary, business tycoon Africa, respectively the largest and second- Cyril Ramaphosa, to be a more strategic and inclusive choice (AC Vol 54 No 2). largest Cosatu members. The NUM claims Extraordinarily, in administrative terms, Nzimande is now expected to head a that NUMSA is poaching its members proposed state-owned BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) think- from the mining sector. (At the same tank under his Higher Education and Training Ministry and not DIRCO, as might be time, NUM members have been defecting expected. His Ministry will probably also be endowed with yet another think-tank, to the rival Association of Mineworkers one dedicated to African policy. It is tentatively to be called the Africa Centre and and Construction Union, AMCU.) The will be based at the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC), which comes under NUM-NUMSA squabble has spread to the the Higher Education Department. The government apparently feels that the current state energy utility Eskom, meant to be think-tank, the Africa Institute of South Africa, which is based in DIRCO, has not NUM terrain, and we hear that the NUM produced usable Africa strategies. is threatening to withhold its subscription Nkoana-Mashabane pleaded with Zuma to base the BRICS think-tank at DIRCO of about R800,000 a month from Cosatu if but to no avail. The academic forum which precedes the BRICS summit, before the it does not intervene in its favour. There is leaders meet, was hosted last month by the Department of Higher Education. Nkoana- a real danger of violence. Mashabane objected to this, too, but was ignored. A former ANC Women’s League Some of Vavi’s pro-Zuma opponents provincial official in Limpopo Province, she has regularly seen other ANC leaders claim that he is working with opposition encroach on her turf. Nzimande is merely the latest. parties, such as the new political platform There is a broad impression that Nkoana-Mashabane has been out of her depth in Agang (‘to Build’), headed by activist and handling the country’s vast, complicated and often controversial global foreign policy. academic Mamphela Ramphele, and In fact, she attracts the blame for ill-thought out policies for which she was not originally

Cosatu’s rival unions, to destabilise the responsible. Controversial and poorly handled interventions in Libya and Central African Property of Asempa Limited government and the ANC (AC Vol 50 Republic and badly received diplomacy on Côte d’Ivoire and Syria were not her idea. No 14). Some Cosatu neutrals fear the As for BRICS strategy, this is largely run by Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan and, to conflict may see the union federation a lesser extent, by the Department of Trade and Industry and by state-owned finance split into two separate entities; others institutions, such as the Development Bank of Southern Africa. l wonder whether Vavi might form his own

Africa Confidential • 12 April 2013 • Vol 54 - N° 8 7 Prepared for on 14/04/2013 at 19:25. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected]. S2106/455738 Administration the established Cosatu-dominated union of the ANC, including Malema, ANCYL, of company boards and is Chairwoman of system. Members unhappy with the Vavi, anti-Zuma trades unionists, ANC the resources company Gold Fields. Now, services of their unions, and opposed to provincial branches, Motlanthe, Sexwale she seeks political backing from black Zuma, have formed splinter groups such and Mathews Phosa are deliberately activists and disaffected ANC leaders. as AMCU. being marginalised within the party but Other activists on the far left of the ANC Other Cosatu affiliates have their absence from Zuma’s side could alliance hope to recruit disgruntled experienced breakaways, in opposition have an impact on the ANC’s electoral members of the NUM and Cosatu into to the federation’s support for Zuma effort in 2014. Yet Zuma’s success in new political parties. The Workers’ and and the feeling that it is too focused on persuading Ramaphosa to become his Socialist Party claims to have made some politics and on enriching its own leaders. deputy has stayed the hand of those who inroads in mining areas but may have little Out-of-touch unions include the South were thinking of splitting from the ANC appeal outside the North West Province. African Transport and Allied Workers’ and forming a new party. Now they are To avoid concentrating on the Union and the Communications Workers’ waiting to see what will happen when or negative alone, Zuma has launched his Union (CWU), which said it was caught if Ramaphosa takes over. own campaign to support the economic by surprise by the current postal strike. As Agang, which was launched in plan cobbled together by the National the union movement fragments, wildcat February, has strong potential. Ramphele Planning Commission, which was adopted strikes are likely to increase, bringing new was a founder of the Black Consciousness by the party conference. Yet here he faces uncertainty to labour relations. Movement, along with the late Steve Biko. opponents from within the unions and the Powerful constituencies and leaders More recently, she has served on a number party, who dismiss it as ‘neo-liberal’. l

Mozambique within Frelimo. The most important figure in the development of the north is General Alberto Chipande, whom Frelimo Frelimo’s gold rush legend credits with firing the shots that launched the liberation war against Portugal in 1964. A former Defence Minister and native of Cabo Delgado, he Energy and infrastructure investment could transform the neglected north represents the province in Parliament. and affect the presidential succession At 73, he is sometimes seen as one of the party dinosaurs but the anticipated nadarko and other oil companies foreign investors to help to transform rebirth of the north has revived both his predict that gas finds in Cabo Delgado these natural resources into revenue for business and political interests. Acould double Mozambique’s annual what was until recently one of the world’s Although all senior Frelimo leaders have gross domestic product. Meanwhile, vast poorest countries (AC Vol 53 No 9). major business interests, Chipande’s are coal reserves are believed to lie in Niassa. Leaders of the governing Frente de largely independent of those of President The centre of gravity of Mozambique’s Libertação de Moçambique are making Armando Guebuza, even though he has economic opportunities seems to be sure that they benefit personally and can been his close political advisor. Chipande’s shifting north. The government is courting use the resources to help their positions business allies include leading generals

Former FRELIMO’S NORTHERN chief Sonangol BUSINESS NETWORK Interest Manuel Shareholder Montepuez Madeiras de Vicente Rubies Machaze Vice-President Business of Angola Amorim partners Abdul Abdul Energia Former board Magid Carimo Interest Interest Principal Principal member Osman Issa Gen. Salésio Gen. Lagos Gen. Atanásio Gen. Tomé Shareholder Principal Principal Principal Teodoro Lidimo Salvador Eduardo Nalyambipano Mtumuke Founder & principal

Partners galp epsilon Quionga Principals investimentos energia

Shareholder Anadarko Married Fernando Gen. Alberto Gen. Maria Nelson Amado Couto Chipande Raimundo Saúte ENI Pachinuapa Graça Project Principal Principal Principal Machel Shareholders Project Principal Grupo Principal Principal Founder Manica Northern & principal Palma portos do Development Madeiras Madeiras Whatana LNG Business norte (pdn) Corridor (CDN) Rovuma Nangade Group

links? ©

Interest Interest africa-confidential.com 2013

Rosario Mualeia Majority Shareholder Property of Asempa Limited shareholder 49% Shareholders 51% via Petromoc Principals Miguel Guebuza portos e Caminhos Vale S.A. Newpalm José Mateus Nephew of de Ferro de Internacional Muária Kathupa Mozambique’s president moçambique (CFm) Interest

8 12 April 2013 • Vol 54 - N° 8 • Africa Confidential Prepared for on 14/04/2013 at 19:25. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected]. S2106/455738 Administration from the north and Frelimo as well as business people thought to be opposed to The Quionga network Guebuza. A presidential bid by Chipande next year no longer appears as improbable General Alberto Joaquim Chipande’s key business move was the formation of Quionga as it once did (AC Vol 54 No 7). Energia SA this January. Also involved are his long-time ally Gen. Raimundo Pachinuapa Guebuza’s star is waning as the end of his and former Finance Minister Abdul Magid Osman’s company Epsilon Investimentos SA. final term in office nears. He is attempting Quionga is intended to act in the same way as private companies set up by Angolan to transfer some presidential powers to government leaders to harvest profit from offshore oil exploration without having to his protégé, Alberto Vaquina, whom he invest, Africa Confidential understands. In Angola, major oil companies that win appointed Prime Minister last year in the bids for blocks to explore and exploit are then required by the Frente de Libertação hope of continuing to wield influence (AC de Moçambique government to ‘carry’ a minority share, often 10% or 15%, for a Vol 53 No 21). Another Guebuza favourite, company such as Quionga (AC Vol 53 No 15). With powerful founders but no industry José Pacheco, was seen as a rising star experience, Quionga is a classic model of a company designed for sale in the Angolan and possible successor but his reputation fashion, Frelimo sources close to the generals confirm. suffered from his handling of the food Other Quionga shareholders include Gen. Henriques Lagos Lidimo, former Chief of riots in September 2010 and, lately, from Army General Staff and former military counter-espionage chief, and Salésio Teodoro accusations of corruption. A recent report Nalyambipano, former Deputy Minister of Security and ex-Ambassador to Angola. Also by the Environmental Investigation holding stakes are Tomé Eduardo and Atanásio Salvador Mtumuke, both senior generals Agency criticised the Agriculture Minister of Makonde ethnicity. Chipande and Pachinuapa’s friendship goes back to their time as for having too close a relationship with a guerrilla commanders during the war and both are former governors of Cabo Delgado Chinese company which had been illegally Province and sit on the Political Commission, Frelimo’s governing body. Pachinuapa’s exporting timber. The EIA estimates that wife Maria is on Frelimo’s Central Committee and is linked to Graça Machel through her about half of Mozambique’s timber trade, Whatana Group investment company (Vol 52 No 18). which has been growing strongly, is illegal. The generals already have extensive business interests in Cabo Delgado, particularly Chipande also has timber interests. in forestry and mining. Chipande and Pachinuapa are involved in forestry through a company called Newpalm Internacional, as are Lidimo and Mtumuke in a firm called Chipande and the presidency Madeiras de Machaze. A key business partner of Chipande through Newpalm is José Chipande’s status as an undisputed hero Mateus Muaria Kathupa, brother of Carvalho Muaria, the Tourism Minister, Governor of the party makes him an attractive of Sofala Province and a director of Petromoc. Pachinuapa, Lidimo and Nalyambipano presidential prospect for anti-Guebuza have interests in ruby concessions in Montepuez. Some sources talk of Lidimo obtaining elements such Graça Machel, widow of swathes of land in mineral-rich Niassa Province and Chipande, whose plethora of Founding President Samora Machel, wife commercial interests include mining, joining the scramble for land in Palma. The of South African former President Nelson competition to buy land there is so intense that it has attracted comment from the Mandela and a successful businesswoman independent weekly, Savana. in her own right. Guebuza has kept the Epsilon is key to Quionga’s profile. Epsilon has previously focused on property faith of the ‘antigos combatentes’ (liberation investment. Its owner, Osman, is on the board of the Portuguese oil and gas company veterans) up to now by giving them Galp (AC Vol 49 No 12). Galp has big interests in Mozambique, including 10% of Rovuma sinecures and patronage, and even land Offshore Block 4, controlled by the Italian company ENI (Ente Nazionale Idrocarburi), and mineral concessions. Yet Chipande’s which is one of Galp’s main shareholders. Osman’s connections through Galp should allies include former military men from place Quionga in prime position to benefit during the tendering process. Cabo Delgado who feel that Guebuza has All contracts, however, must be awarded to properly qualified low bidders and not been generous enough. Quionga’s role will be carefully watched by transparency campaigners. Even if Quionga Another close ally of Chipande’s who does not obtain percentage shares in offshore blocks, it remains ideally placed to benefit is hostile to Guebuza is businessman from ancillary infrastructure contracts that arise from the US$50 billion gas liquefaction Fernando Amado Couto, said to be the plant that ENI is building with Anadarko at Palma (AC Vol 53 No 25). Osman set up brains behind the recent takeover of Nacala Epsilon in 2007 after President Armando Guebuza had pushed him out of the second- port by the newly formed Portos do Norte largest commercial bank, BCI-Fomento. Guebuza had effectively forced him to sell his (PdN). Chipande and Gen. Raimundo shares and hand over the chairmanship to his then new protégé, Celso Correia. Other BCI Domingos Pachinuapa are believed to be shareholders joined Osman in Epsilon, including former Deputy Speaker Abdul Carimo shareholders in PdN and the company may Mahomed Issa, a legal expert and business partner of Osman and Machel. Issa, we hear, be negotiating other port management was involved in establishing Quionga, in which he also holds shares. deals in the north. Quionga may also be intended to broker the entry of Angolan investors into If Guebuza wants his influence to the Mozambican oil and gas industry. Angolan Vice-President Manuel Vicente, continue, some ask, what about his wife, the former head of the Sociedade Nacional de Combustíveis de Angola, has been Maria da Luz Dai Guebuza, succeeding making regular trips to Mozambique to talk to private companies about oil and gas him? President of the Mozambican opportunities. He is believed to have visited twice this year already. Women’s Association, the First Lady has Chipande is better placed to do business with Luanda than Guebuza, whose strong liberation credentials and has been relations with the Angolan leadership are said to be poor. Sonangol is another of taking on more and more roles commonly Galp’s major shareholders and recently, the Angolan company has tried to increase assumed by the head of state. Others are its control over Galp so as to gain entry to the industry in third countries, such sceptical: some note that the Guebuza as Brazil. Some industry observers consider it logical for Sonangol to come into family fears electors might punish any Mozambique via both Galp and Osman. l dynastic ambition. Nevertheless, some

Frelimo leaders want a famous face to Property of Asempa Limited front their next presidential campaign. prospects of any other party’s candidate Guebuza’s backing to make a full bid for Chipande’s presidential prospects are prevailing against the Frelimo machine in the presidency. Whatever happens to mixed. Although popular in the party, he is 2014 are thought non-existent. His allies him politically, he seems set to remain a unknown to the mainly young electors and are working to cement his support in pivotal figure in – and beneficiary of – the is unlikely to appeal to them, although the the northern provinces but he still needs economic rise of the north. l

Africa Confidential • 12 April 2013 • Vol 54 - N° 8 9 Prepared for on 14/04/2013 at 19:25. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected]. S2106/455738 Administration

SomaliA/Puntland Puntland’s rise to fame as a pirate hub – ironically at the same time as it became a beacon of stability in ‘failed’ Somalia. Deferring democracy By the relative standards of Somalia, this resulted in huge international attention. The goal was both to help Puntland fight and incarcerate pirates and also, Local elections were meant to be a first democratic step but the territory’s politically, to give it a key seat at the table leaders fear they could threaten stability in the negotiations to end the transition in Somalia. Accordingly, much cash went hether or not Puntland is ‘ready entire clan. Through various – admittedly to Puntland to train security forces and for democracy’, the government failed – transitional governments, key support projects to provide young men Whas postponed the local elections positions have been shared between with alternative employment to piracy. due on 15 May. There is no clear notion Darod and Hawiye politicians. Financially, the biggest threat to of when, if ever, they will occur. President Now there is a government in Puntland is over natural resources. In the Abdirahman Mohamud Farole’s decision Mogadishu treated as a fully functioning dying days of President Sharif Sheikh to extend his term, the lack of an electoral entity, despite a steep decline in security Ahmed’s TFG, Garowe secured federal register and mistrust among the country’s (AC Vol 54 No 7), Puntland finds itself less recognition of the oil deals signed to sub-clans leave the as yet unborn of a donor darling, much like Somaliland. explore the fields that lie on the border democracy facing huge challenges. Until External interests still steadfastly regard with Somaliland (AC Vol 54 No 1). Range the latest delay, the timetable scheduled Somalia as one country and are less Resources is exploring for oil in Nugal and local council elections first and then, open to the needs and pleas of the two t he Dh a r o or Va l le y. T h i s c ou ld r e le a s e g r e at by January 2014, the selection of a new northern territories. Unlike Somaliland, wealth for Puntland and its politicians if president. The system was intended to Puntland does not seek independence the federal government in Mogadishu does emulate Somaliland’s practice of using but its influence in Somalia depends on not raise tricky jurisdictional questions local elections as a basis for a presidential stability and good reputation. Elections about who should collect revenue. election (AC Vol 54 No 3). That deadline would accentuate its recent stability and Puntland presents itself as a stable, now seems unlikely to be met. contrast its condition with the continuing democratic entity. That is vital for The postponement will have endeared uncertainty around Mogadishu. continued donor support and political Puntland little to its donor friends. It was Garowe has admitted to insecurity legitimacy but it has other motives. only in the last week of March that the of its own. At a meeting on 6 April in Politicians in Puntland and within the United States Special Representative to Mogadishu to discuss reforms to the Darod seek to bolster their position Somalia, James Swan, led a delegation of Somali legal system, Puntland’s Minister through the formation of the Jubaland the Democratisation Programme Steering for Justice, Yusuf Ahmed Kheyr, said regional state along the Kenyan border Committee, which included British, that ‘Puntland feels an extensive need for and centred on Kismayo. Their plan is to Swedish and Italian officials, for talks support in terms of security and justice build a regional statelet in Juba and Gedo in Garowe with Farole on the elections. from the federal government of Somalia, regions, which are dominated by Darod Puntland’s official information service and also that Al Shabaab militants were clans but where other clans count (AC Vol quoted Swan saying he was ‘impressed ‘pouring’ into the territory. 54 No 2). Such a primarily Darod entity with very recent significant progress’. would ally itself to the Darod of Puntland The climate for elections could have Federal isolation and thus dominate federal politics. hardly been less conducive, with radio In the run-up to the end of Somalia’s When President Hassan said that the stations banned and political associations Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in federal government should be involved in calling and then cancelling election 2011-12, President Farole played a major establishing the Jubaland administration, boycotts. Leaders in the capital, Garowe, part in the negotiations. Since Hassan many Darod saw this as unwarranted have been pondering whether the current Sheikh Mohamud became President interference. Hawiye leaders fear the climate of mistrust might cause democracy last September, however, and even more isolation that such Darod prominence to result in less stability, not more. They since he appointed Abdi Farah Shirdon could bring. The Hawiye have no regional pride themselves on having kept violence ‘Said’ as Prime Minister, Puntland has state of their own: Himan and Heeb, and at bay and value highly the international been isolated from federal-level politics Galmudug, are smaller and less well- praise and funds they have received for (AC Vol 53 No 19). One explanation is organised (AC Vol 53 No 1). Even if they reducing piracy (after much pressure) and Hassan Sheikh’s decision to appoint not merged to form a viable state, there are, maintaining peace. a Majerteen but a Marehan Premier (AC realistically, no further areas where Behind Garowe’s decisions lie Vol 53 No 23). Both sub-clans are part Hawiye could establish a regional state. Puntland’s reputation, prospects for donor of the Darod clan family that dominates Elections in Puntland may help to finance and exploiting natural resources, Puntland but the Marehan are not, maintain the territory’s autonomy vis- and a clan power play that goes well generally speaking, representatives of à-vis Mogadishu and favour the Darod beyond the territory’s borders. At least Puntland. Many in the north-east see within a federation but Farole appears to since the collapse of the late Mohamed Said’s appointment as a snub. have more selfish aims. He stands accused Siad Barre’s dictatorship in 1991, Somali Puntland views a successful of trying to manipulate these processes politics have been dominated by a struggle democratisation process as a way of ending to prolong his time in office. Other between Hawiye and Darod clans for the its isolation in national affairs. Under the leaders are reluctant at present to move control of territory and resources. While new constitution, power – and the ability decisively against him. They may dislike

Mogadishu and the south were fought over, to sign lucrative mineral deals – will him but broader clan considerations seem Property of Asempa Limited the Darod created a stable clan homeland return to Mogadishu over time. Puntland to overrule their desire to remove him. in Puntland. The north-east afforded not needs to increase its influence to the point Puntland’s success depends on progress only a safe haven for Darod at risk in other where it can reassert its political weight. towards both democracy and stability and parts of the country but also conferred When, four years ago, clan elders chose Farole’s reluctance to embrace one could political authority and influence on the Farole as President, that coincided with well jeopardise the other. l

10 12 April 2013 • Vol 54 - N° 8 • Africa Confidential Prepared for on 14/04/2013 at 19:25. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected]. S2106/455738 Administration france/mali: Continued From page 2 national de Libération de l’Azawad. d’état-major opérationnel conjoint with wants no involvement with a ground This, we hear, led to a change of tactics Mali, Niger, and Mauritania to coordinate campaign, its officials have been taking by the Direction Générale de la Sécurité action against AQIM and other jihadist the regional implications of Mali’s crisis Extérieure, the foreign intelligence service. groups but the CEMOC lacked substance increasingly seriously. The most obvious The DGSE had developed close ties with and capacity. sign of this new involvement is the some Tuareg leaders, which had proved During the past year, all the jihadist USA’s agreements with Niger (to launch useful to them in Sahel operation and in groups in northern Mali received supplies surveillance drones) and Burkina Faso for attempts to contain AQIM. The DGSE’s from Algeria, apparently with no attempt various military facilities. Yet Washington new Director, Bernard Bajolet, a former by its security services to cut off the is concerned about France’s strategy intelligence coordinator at the Elysée who supply lines. Since France launched its of turning the military mission under also served as Ambassador to Algeria and intervention in January, Algeria has shut French/Malian control into a purely UN Afghanistan, is understood to view the its border with Mali. The In Amenas operation. US officials know that the Mali mission as his top priority. He replaces attack in February concentrated minds UN’s linkage to North Atlantic Treaty Erard Corbin De Mangoux, who took the and Algiers has stepped up security. It is Organisation operations in Afghanistan blame for the failed mission to rescue a also watching developments in Western has proved generally disastrous for the DGSE agent from his Somali captors in Sahara, where it backs the Polisario Front UN’s position there. early January (AC Vol 54 No 2). against Morocco’s occupation. As the main promoters of the Mali A new report from UN Secretary strategy, Hollande and Le Drian have France, Algeria and Mali General Ban Ki-moon’s office warns become increasingly reliant on the military The Commandement des Opérations that fighting on the Mali-Algeria border Chief of Staff, General Benoît Puga. Spéciales backed an early intervention could spill over into Western Sahara, and Foreign Minister Fabius, a more seasoned because it believed the jihadist forces – that jihadists could cross into camps and politician than either Hollande or Le about 5,000 in early January – had not radicalise the refugees there. The report Drian, has been far more cautious about put down strong enough roots locally also calls for independent, sustained the mission. That makes Gen. Puga’s role to mount a serious resistance. That has human rights monitoring in Western all the more important. Formerly head of proved true so far in Kidal and Timbuktu, Sahara, a call backed by Polisario but the Special Forces and also Commander but the jihadists have established several opposed by Morocco. King Mohammed of Operations in Chad (2006-2009) and clandestine bases around Gao, allowing VI’s government has been trying to in Libya (2011), Puga is one of the most them to sneak into the city and attack convince Polisario to accept its offer of experienced officers in France. Appointed Malian and French forces there. autonomy within the borders of Morocco. by Sarkozy, he quickly gained Hollande’s Key to improving security in northern Morocco’s occupation of Western confidence and, according to insiders, his Mali and across the region is the triangular Saharan territory is not recognised advice is taken more seriously than the relationship between Hollande, Algeria’s internationally, a point delicately avoided Cellule africaine at the Elysée Palace. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika and in public by Hollande on his state visit to When Hollande took over the Mali’s President Dioncounda Traoré. This Rabat last week, and there has been no government in May 2012, he and Fabius week another Mali delegation is heading serious pressure on Morocco to cooperate commissioned a fresh assessment of Mali for more talks in Algiers: relations have on organising a credible election. Algeria which recommended the immediate end improved slowly over the past three years. and South Africa believe Western support of French backing for the Mouvement In April 2010, Algeria set up the Comité for Rabat on the issue could change. l Subscribing to Africa Confidential

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Africa Confidential • 12 April 2013 • Vol 54 - N° 8 11 Prepared for on 14/04/2013 at 19:25. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected]. S2106/455738 Administration

struggle between army factions for control Both demand freedom for ‘political pointers of Guinea Bissau’s drug business. prisoners’ such as Mushayidi and Victoire Drugs smuggling has increased Ingabire Umuhoza, President of the substantially since the April 2012 military Forces démocratiques unifiées-Inkingi, coup: the United Nations reported at least locked up since October 2010. They also Africa/Mining 20 transatlantic flights by small aircraft want the regime to acknowledge that Beny bites back loaded with drugs landing in the country in Rwanda has three ethnic communities: nBeny Steinmetz, the Israeli mining the following six months. The US operation Hutu, Tutsi and Twa. It is taboo to mention magnate who has massive investments in throws light on the widely-discredited ethnic identities and their existence is not Congo-Kinshasa and Guinea, is suing the transitional government of Manuel Serifo officially acknowledged. Twagiramungu public relations company FTI Consulting Nhamadjo – and the inability of the deplores the fact that there are still very and its Europe Chairman, Lord Malloch- Economic Community of West African few Hutu officers in the Rwanda Defence Brown. Steinmetz appointed FTI as advisor States to help restore constitutional Force. Unlike some other oppositionists, to himself and his firm Beny Steinmetz government (AC Vol 53 No 9). The regime Karangwa and Twagiramungu say they are Group Resources in May 2009. He claims is supposed to be moving towards committed to peaceful political change. that FTI ended its relationship with BSGR elections but those due this month have last November because Malloch-Brown been postponed. ECOWAS has stationed Mozambique had succumbed to pressure from the a force of police and soldiers, the 600- Military manoeuvres billionaire philanthropist George Soros. strong ECOWAS Mission in Guinea Bissau nAn intervention force from the Southern Mark Malloch-Brown, a former United (Ecomib), to help manage the transition African Development Community will Nations Deputy Secretary General and but it is not taken seriously. soon deploy in eastern Congo-Kinshasa. It British former Development Minister, The biggest parliamentary party, looks like a rerun of the 1998-2003 Congo inherited the controversial Steinmetz as a the Partido Africano da Independência war but some key participants will change client when he came to FTI. Steinmetz says da Guiné e Cabo Verde, has rejected all (AC Vol 39 No 19). SADC may again be that Malloch-Brown’s dut y to represent him invitations to participate in the transitional defending the Kinshasa government ran counter to his relationship with Soros regime. However, the PAIGC former against forces supported by Rwanda and and was thus a breach of fiduciary duty. Prime Minister, Carlos Gomes Júnior, Uganda, the Mouvement du 23 mars. This Steinmetz also claims defamation. Soros whose probable election as president time, though, Mozambican soldiers will and Steinmetz have common, though was prevented by the coup, still wants to join the SADC troops, most of them from diverging, interests in Guinea. Since Alpha run for the top job. Neither the UN nor the South Africa and Tanzania. Condé’s election as President in November European Union recognise Nhamadjo’s Mozambique’s participation is a major 2010, Soros has been advising him on government and are privately dismissive policy shift. President Joaquim Chissano implementing a national mining code and of ECOWAS efforts but the need for its angered old allies Angola, Namibia and introducing new standards of probity and support in the Mali conflict stops them Zimbabwe by refusing to take part in transparency. Non governmental agencies pressing the issue. US prosecutors have the last intervention, citing his country’s he supports have been prominent in these revealed that the plotters with Bubo experience of foreign involvement in its initiatives. Meanwhile, Conakry accuses claimed to be consulting Nhamadjo and devastating civil war. The conservative Steinmetz of bribing the government of Prime Minister Rui Duarte de Barros over wing of the ruling Frente de Libertação de the late Lansana Conté to obtain the rights the drug shipments. Moçambique saw his refusal as a betrayal. to half of the giant Simandou iron-ore This wing is represented by Armando mine, which used to belong to Rio Tinto. Rwanda Guebuza, who was then in his wilderness Steinmetz vigorously denies the charge Faustin’s pact years and leading the fight-back that saw (AC Vol 54 No 6). nFaustin Twagiramungu was Prime him succeed Chissano in 2002. BSGR says it obtained information Minister in 1994-96, returned from exile The intervention is consistent with the about ‘the misuse of confidential to lose the presidential election in 2003 authoritarianism of Frelimo’s revolutionary information by FTI and Lord Malloch- and now wants another start (AC Vol era, restoring which has been a hallmark of Brown’ via the Data Protection Act 1998 52 No 3). The first head of government Guebuza’s presidency. The thinly-equipped and it ‘is based on FTI’s own electronic after the genocide of 1994 has pledged to armed forces, the Forças Armadas de records’. If Steinmetz possesses internal return to Kigali in June, along with another Defesa de Moçambique, are ill-suited to FTI e-mails in which Malloch-Brown opposition figure, Gérard Karangwa their proposed role in eastern Congo. Its decries Steinmetz, his defence could be Semushi, who lives in the Netherlands. previous peacekeeping forays – in Burundi, difficult. Any leaks from FTI that may have Two years ago, from exile in Brussels, Sudan and East Timor – were less militarily taken place probably followed a falling out Twagiramungu founded a political party, active than Congo-K threatens to be. between Malloch-Brown and other FTI Umugambi Rwanda Rwiza-Rwanda Dream Internal security is the responsibility executives who wanted to retain Steinmetz Initiative. Karangwa, a former member of of the para-military police of the Força as a client, we hear. President Paul Kagame’s Rwanda Patriotic de Intervenção Rápida, the de facto Front, is now Vice-President of Pacte de army. Since 3 April, the FIR has been Guinea Bissau/United States défense du peuple-Imanzi. The party’s confronting Frelimo’s civil war adversary, Admiral of the white founder, Déogratias Mushayidi, received a the Resistência Nacional Moçambicana: nIn a sting operation off the coast of life sentence in 2010 for recruiting soldiers FIR carried out raids in Muxungue and Cape Verde on 2 April, United States to overthrow the government. Gondola, Manica Province, dispersing agents arrested the former head of the Neither man has said when he will 300 Renamo militants with tear gas and Navy, Vice-Admiral José Américo Bubo arrive but September’s general elections arresting 15. On 5 April, gunmen retaliated

Na Tchuto, and other Guinea Bissauans, are too near for them to stand. Karangwa by killing five police officers in an ambush Property of Asempa Limited for agreeing to provide arms in return for says he may run for president in 2017. at Muxungue police station. Renamo cocaine. The captives were whisked to New Twagiramungu says it’s too soon to decide. denies responsibility. The row stems from York for trial. On 4 April, gunfire and troop He condemns Kagame’s ‘militaristic Renamo’s refusal to participate in local movements in Bissau led to speculation monarchy’ and both men say they want to elections and its declared intention to use that the arrests might have sparked a new open up the space for political dialogue. all means to prevent electors registering.

12 12 April 2013 • Vol 54 - N° 8 • Africa Confidential Prepared for on 14/04/2013 at 19:25. Authorized users may download, save, and print articles for their own use, but may not further disseminate these articles in their electronic form without express written permission from Africa Confidential / Asempa Limited. Contact [email protected].